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2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion

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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#61

Posted: May 16, 2019, 10:50 AM Post
Posts: 1630
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
PeaveyFury said:
Probably not unfair. I think the Phils are legit, though. And the Mets continue to underperform their amazing rotation.


The Phils have all the talent, but so much of that team has turned over, I just wonder how long it's going to take for them to gel. They are the current guinea pig for if buying your way to a championship is feasible in today's MLB economic climate.


None of the east teams have good bullpens, or quality depth, especially pitching.


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#62

Posted: May 23, 2019, 9:25 AM Post
Posts: 1630
31% in, and some observations:

The playoff teams are pretty much set imo:

Dodgers Brewers Braves Cubbies Cardinals

1.) Dodgers- astounding depth and the best hitter.
2.) Brewers- will improve more than other teams.
3.) Cubbies- 1-8 the best, lack depth.
4.) Braves- great manager, chemistry, will improve too.
5.) Cardinals- great pitching depth, potential scary pen.

6.) Rockies- just miss.
7.) Phillies- bad Chemistry, bad manager.
8.) Reds- big time sellers at the deadline.
9.) Pirates- Hurdle best manager in baseball.
10.) Mets- bad manager, snakebite injuries.
11.) Padres- 2 years away.
12.) Nats- worst manager in baseball, big sellers.
13.) D-Backs- overachieving their talent level.
14.) Marlins- Organizational pitching best in baseball
15.) Giants- 5 years away.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#63

Posted: May 23, 2019, 11:17 AM Post
Posts: 10717
I could see it ending exactly how it is right now...except maybe Braves over the Phillies...but Phillies still in the WC.

The notable thing is the playoff contenders seem obvious

Dodgers
Brewers
Cubs
Braves
Cardinals
Phillies

Maybe some other teams hang out in contention, but I think the above are the real deals. Rockies might be a darkhorse, Pirates a real big dark horse.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#64

Posted: May 23, 2019, 1:00 PM Post
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Surprised by the lack of respect the dbacks are getting. They may be overachieving but their run differential is great and they have played 44 of their 50 games against teams .500 or better


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#65

Posted: May 23, 2019, 1:03 PM Post
Posts: 1945
In my opinion the Nationals and the Marlins are going to suck and the Mets will struggle to get near .500 - so you can't count out the Phillies or the Braves both making it in. They can feast on that soft underbelly, while other teams grind down.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#66

Posted: May 23, 2019, 7:29 PM Post
Posts: 1567
Location: Madison, WI
jjfanec said:
Surprised by the lack of respect the dbacks are getting. They may be overachieving but their run differential is great and they have played 44 of their 50 games against teams .500 or better


Thing that could make the Diamondbacks scary is that they've had some relievers who have really under-performed so far. Archie Bradley = 4.29 ERA, 1.86 WHIP. Yoshihisa Hirano = 5.09 ERA, 1.42 WHIP. Get those guys going with Greg Holland who appears to be back on track (1.69 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) and then combine that with a Grienke/Weaver/Ray 1-2-3 punch in the rotation and that could be a plus-plus pitching staff late in the season and playoff time. I still question what that lineup will do over the long-haul, but those guys have got the job done so far. 4.92 runs per game to this point, just edges out the Brewers by the slightest of margins (Brewers at 4.90 runs per game). I still like the Brewers offense better over the long-haul...but we are up to the 50 game mark now so the sample size isn't that small anymore.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#67

Posted: May 24, 2019, 9:10 PM Post
Posts: 479
Location: Wisconsin
Brew crew 92 said:
31% in, and some observations:

The playoff teams are pretty much set imo:

Dodgers Brewers Braves Cubbies Cardinals

1.) Dodgers- astounding depth and the best hitter.
2.) Brewers- will improve more than other teams.
3.) Cubbies- 1-8 the best, lack depth.
4.) Braves- great manager, chemistry, will improve too.
5.) Cardinals- great pitching depth, potential scary pen.

6.) Rockies- just miss.
7.) Phillies- bad Chemistry, bad manager.
8.) Reds- big time sellers at the deadline.
9.) Pirates- Hurdle best manager in baseball.
10.) Mets- bad manager, snakebite injuries.
11.) Padres- 2 years away.
12.) Nats- worst manager in baseball, big sellers.
13.) D-Backs- overachieving their talent level.
14.) Marlins- Organizational pitching best in baseball
15.) Giants- 5 years away.


I think you’re underrating the Phillies. They have an extremely potent lineup that hasn’t hit its stride yet and some pretty good pitching.


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#68

Posted: May 25, 2019, 6:18 AM Post
Posts: 1630
BruisedCrew said:
Brew crew 92 said:
31% in, and some observations:

The playoff teams are pretty much set imo:

Dodgers Brewers Braves Cubbies Cardinals

1.) Dodgers- astounding depth and the best hitter.
2.) Brewers- will improve more than other teams.
3.) Cubbies- 1-8 the best, lack depth.
4.) Braves- great manager, chemistry, will improve too.
5.) Cardinals- great pitching depth, potential scary pen.

6.) Rockies- just miss.
7.) Phillies- bad Chemistry, bad manager.
8.) Reds- big time sellers at the deadline.
9.) Pirates- Hurdle best manager in baseball.
10.) Mets- bad manager, snakebite injuries.
11.) Padres- 2 years away.
12.) Nats- worst manager in baseball, big sellers.
13.) D-Backs- overachieving their talent level.
14.) Marlins- Organizational pitching best in baseball
15.) Giants- 5 years away.


I think you’re underrating the Phillies. They have an extremely potent lineup that hasn’t hit its stride yet and some pretty good pitching.


Yes, you could be right, but I can’t put them ahead of the braves or cards yet.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#69

Posted: May 25, 2019, 7:31 AM Post
Posts: 479
Location: Wisconsin
I’m not going to quibble about whether to rate the Braves above the Phillies, but I think it is way too early to suggest that the playoff teams are close to set. I would definitely put the Phillies ahead of the Rockies.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#70

Posted: May 25, 2019, 5:25 PM Post
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Posts: 157
Location: Chicago
Well if those are the playoff contending teams I’m sure glad the Brewers are done with the Dodgers, Phillies and Mets before the calendar turns to June. Maybe the my can flatten up beating up on some cream puffs Inn june and July before the deadline


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#71

Posted: May 27, 2019, 4:04 AM Post
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The Brewers are once again #1 in MLB schedule strength, in both ESPN’s and Sagarin’s indices. Upcoming series against Minnesota and Houston won’t change that. They’re also .500 in 20 games against the NL first-place teams.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#72

Posted: May 27, 2019, 10:13 PM Post
Posts: 4158
Interesting that the Cubs' recent scuffling of late has occurred during the tail end of an extended stretch of games without an off day. They'll get one later this week, only to have just one more day off between May 31 and July 4...their pitching has started showing signs of strain and their lack of depth will be interesting to watch with a couple more games against Houston, and bunch with STL, LAD, and Atlanta on their schedule over the next month.

conversely, if the Brewers remember how to actually beat the Pirates, their remaining schedule for the 1st half is extremely tasty compared to the schedule they've played to date.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#73

Posted: May 27, 2019, 10:27 PM Post
Posts: 16883
IMO we definitely have a great shot at the playoffs this year.

Dodgers are going to run away with the West, other than them, no one special. I see the Phillies and Braves both as likely playoff teams.

Top 2 from the Central IMO will be playoff teams.


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#74

Posted: May 28, 2019, 5:54 AM Post
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NYChez said:
The Brewers are once again #1 in MLB schedule strength, in both ESPN’s and Sagarin’s indices. Upcoming series against Minnesota and Houston won’t change that. They’re also .500 in 20 games against the NL first-place teams.

The Brewers are on a 91.5 win pace after playing arguably the toughest collection of opponents through the first one-third of the season (55 games). They have set themselves up nicely by staying above .500 to this point in the season with the schedule on the horizon seemingly easing up.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#75

Posted: May 28, 2019, 7:25 AM Post
Posts: 155
Eye Black said:
NYChez said:
The Brewers are once again #1 in MLB schedule strength, in both ESPN’s and Sagarin’s indices. Upcoming series against Minnesota and Houston won’t change that. They’re also .500 in 20 games against the NL first-place teams.

The Brewers are on a 91.5 win pace after playing arguably the toughest collection of opponents through the first one-third of the season (55 games). They have set themselves up nicely by staying above .500 to this point in the season with the schedule on the horizon seemingly easing up.


I'm not exactly sure how ESPN/Sagarin calculate their SoS, but I tried to break the season down into three 54-game sections. The first of these ended on Sunday (5/26) with the Brewers sitting at 30-24 (90 win pace). Here is how it breaks down:

Games 1 through 54
Opponent wPCT: .532
Games vs. teams > .550 wPCT: 23
Games vs. teams < .450 wPCT: 3
Games vs. CHC/STL: 16
Games vs. CIN/PIT: 5

Games 55 through 108:
Opponent wPCT: .492
Games vs. teams > .550 wPCT: 10
Games vs. teams < .450 wPCT: 12
Games vs. CHC/STL: 3
Games vs. CIN/PIT: 24

Games 109 through 162:
Opponent wPCT: .512
Games vs. teams > .550 wPCT: 14
Games vs. teams < .450 wPCT: 7
Games vs. CHC/STL: 19
Games vs. CIN/PIT: 9

It is clear that the middle 54 game stretch will be big opportunity for the Crew to take charge in the division after doing a great job in the first 54 games (by far the toughest third of the schedule). 24 games against the Reds and Pirates vs. 3 games against the Cubs and Cardinals. Done with the Dodgers and Phillies for the year. They started off on the right foot last night in Minnesota. Hopefully they have figured out how to beat the Pirates!


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#76

Posted: May 28, 2019, 12:30 PM Post
Posts: 1630
The American League this year is a big fat joke.

The Twins are nowhere near as good as their record, 2 games UNDER vs teams .500 or better, 21 over vs the horrible teams.

Put them in the NL Central and they don’t even make the wild card game.

Why is no one talking about this is staggering.
100+ home runs against the worst pitching staffs in baseball? Overrated.

And the Yankees can thank their lucky stars that their schedule has been even easier than the twins, hard to believe, but true, so even with their record breaking amount of injuries their second team still better than their opponents first team.


Last edited by Brew crew 92 on May 28, 2019, 1:10 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#77

Posted: May 28, 2019, 1:05 PM Post
Posts: 192
As good as their record? Maybe not. Beneficiaries of a weak division? Probably. But the Twins lead the MLB in run differential by 20+ runs. They are legit.


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#78

Posted: May 28, 2019, 1:15 PM Post
Posts: 1630
bm1090 said:
As good as their record? Maybe not. Beneficiaries of a weak division? Probably. But the Twins lead the MLB in run differential by 20+ runs. They are legit.


Legit to win their pathetic division, absolutely.

Run differential a different story when 70+% of games played against the worst teams in baseball.

Again, look at their record vs average to above teams.


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#79

Posted: June 02, 2019, 9:12 AM Post
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The Brewers capture the lead in the NL Central to start June. Seems likely to be wild ride during the final four months of the regular season.

Image


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#80

Posted: June 03, 2019, 8:07 AM Post
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Posts: 2125
Playoff Odds currently somewhere around...

FG: 61%
538: 73%
BRef: 85%


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