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2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion

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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#81

Posted: June 03, 2019, 9:03 AM Post
Posts: 5116
Location: New Berlin, WI
Kinda crazy, in the AL the 5 playoff teams already seem locked in and we have 100 games yet to play. The highest odds on fangraphs aside from those top 5 is the 29-30 Indians at 29.6%, next highest is under 10%. In the NL, all but 4 teams have over 10% odds. I also find it a bit annoying that we're 1.5 games ahead of the Cubs but they have significantly better odds of winning the division. They really aren't THAT much better than us on paper...if at all.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#82

Posted: June 03, 2019, 9:09 AM Post
Posts: 704
sveumrules said:
Playoff Odds currently somewhere around...

FG: 61%
538: 73%
BRef: 85%


Baseball prospectus also at 72%.

With a relatively soft schedule between now and the all star break, the Brewers have a real chance to compile some wins over the next month.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#83

Posted: June 03, 2019, 9:11 AM Post
Posts: 3060
KeithStone53151 said:
Kinda crazy, in the AL the 5 playoff teams already seem locked in and we have 100 games yet to play. The highest odds on fangraphs aside from those top 5 is the 29-30 Indians at 29.6%, next highest is under 10%. In the NL, all but 4 teams have over 10% odds. I also find it a bit annoying that we're 1.5 games ahead of the Cubs but they have significantly better odds of winning the division. They really aren't THAT much better than us on paper...if at all.


Big market bias in full swing again, it won’t even change when the crew wins the World Series, now when they win back to back championships.........


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#84

Posted: June 03, 2019, 9:12 AM Post
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Location: Neenah
Hopefully, Trout puts up a grand slam or two vs the Cubbies today.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#85

Posted: June 03, 2019, 9:32 AM Post
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Brew crew 92 said:
KeithStone53151 said:
Kinda crazy, in the AL the 5 playoff teams already seem locked in and we have 100 games yet to play. The highest odds on fangraphs aside from those top 5 is the 29-30 Indians at 29.6%, next highest is under 10%. In the NL, all but 4 teams have over 10% odds. I also find it a bit annoying that we're 1.5 games ahead of the Cubs but they have significantly better odds of winning the division. They really aren't THAT much better than us on paper...if at all.


Big market bias in full swing again, it won’t even change when the crew wins the World Series, now when they win back to back championships.........


They're statistical models. I believe the Cubs greater odds are based primarily on run differential not bias.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#86

Posted: June 03, 2019, 9:45 AM Post
Posts: 3060
True Blue Brew Crew said:
Brew crew 92 said:
KeithStone53151 said:
Kinda crazy, in the AL the 5 playoff teams already seem locked in and we have 100 games yet to play. The highest odds on fangraphs aside from those top 5 is the 29-30 Indians at 29.6%, next highest is under 10%. In the NL, all but 4 teams have over 10% odds. I also find it a bit annoying that we're 1.5 games ahead of the Cubs but they have significantly better odds of winning the division. They really aren't THAT much better than us on paper...if at all.


Big market bias in full swing again, it won’t even change when the crew wins the World Series, now when they win back to back championships.........


They're statistical models. I believe the Cubs greater odds are based primarily on run differential not bias.


Yes, but no team in baseball the last 2 1/3 years has been projected as badly as the crew. Fangraphs Prospectus even Vegas off off off. So something is going on here. No team in baseball is less analyzed correctly than our team, and it’s not just the national talking heads.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#87

Posted: June 03, 2019, 10:18 AM Post
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I don't know what to tell you other than there is no bias in a statistical model. Flaws, yes. Bias, no.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#88

Posted: June 03, 2019, 10:25 AM Post
Posts: 5116
Location: New Berlin, WI
True Blue Brew Crew said:
I don't know what to tell you other than there is no bias in a statistical model. Flaws, yes. Bias, no.


Right, I'm sure the model is working appropriately. It's also working off of likely very flawed projections. Probably some combination of preseason projections slightly modified.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#89

Posted: June 03, 2019, 10:31 AM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
True Blue Brew Crew said:
I don't know what to tell you other than there is no bias in a statistical model. Flaws, yes. Bias, no.


Right, I'm sure the model is working appropriately. It's also working off of likely very flawed projections. Probably some combination of preseason projections slightly modified.


Yep, all flawed in some way no doubt to varying degress. Fangraphs seems to be currently the worst at figuring out the Brewers. They just as easily could be the best predictor for other teams. I think what FG struggles with most is the way the Brewers play splits so heavily. Both on the hitting and pitching side.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#90

Posted: June 03, 2019, 10:36 AM Post
Posts: 5116
Location: New Berlin, WI
True Blue Brew Crew said:
KeithStone53151 said:
True Blue Brew Crew said:
I don't know what to tell you other than there is no bias in a statistical model. Flaws, yes. Bias, no.


Right, I'm sure the model is working appropriately. It's also working off of likely very flawed projections. Probably some combination of preseason projections slightly modified.


Yep, all flawed in some way no doubt to varying degress. Fangraphs seems to be currently the worst at figuring out the Brewers. They just as easily could be the best predictor for other teams. I think what FG struggles with most is the way the Brewers play splits so heavily. Both on the hitting and pitching side.


Agreed. Projections systems are all terrible at projecting out regression on older players and everything on young players. So big markets with name players tend to get over projected and young players tend to get underprojected. They also are really bad at factoring bullpens in general. I would like to see a projections system look at run differential, strength of schedule, current record...measurable facts vs projections...and project off that. I think all the projection models look too much at how players are going to do going forward...which they are simply terrible at.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#91

Posted: June 03, 2019, 10:38 AM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
I think all the projection models look too much at how players are going to do going forward.


Isn't that what a projection is though?

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#92

Posted: June 03, 2019, 10:41 AM Post
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Location: New Berlin, WI
homer said:
KeithStone53151 said:
I think all the projection models look too much at how players are going to do going forward.


Isn't that what a projection is though?


For stat projections for a player that's fine, I just wish they didn't use those to try and figure out team records. Especially midway through the season. There's better data/criteria they can use that isn't so flawed. I personally think stat projections are completely useless, so when those get incorporated into projecting team records...it pretty much ruins them.


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#93

Posted: June 03, 2019, 10:56 AM Post
Posts: 4744
Location: Madison, WI
You just have to take it for what it is, a best estimate. To act like its possible to predict this stuff 100% is just foolish. They've accumulated years and years of data, created the best formulas they can and this is the best estimates they can make. I'm sure they'll continue tweaking as best they can, but just take it for what it is.


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#94

Posted: June 09, 2019, 5:10 PM Post
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The Brewers are now 10 games above .500 for the first time this season (yesterday was the first time getting to 9 games over .500 this year). With the Phillies loss today the Brewers now have the second best record in the National League behind only the Dodgers. The Brewers are 7.0 GB of the Dodgers for the best NL record.


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#95

Posted: June 09, 2019, 6:06 PM Post
Posts: 18985
True or False:

The current 5 playoff teams (Dodgers, Brewers, Phillies, Cubs and Braves), will be the 5 playoff teams at the end of the season.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#96

Posted: June 09, 2019, 6:35 PM Post
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Location: Phoenix, AZ
adambr2 said:
True or False:

The current 5 playoff teams (Dodgers, Brewers, Phillies, Cubs and Braves), will be the 5 playoff teams at the end of the season.


False I will go with Braves, Brewers, Cubs, Dodgers and Padres.


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#97

Posted: June 09, 2019, 9:03 PM Post
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On May 1st the Cardinals were in 1st place in the NL Central a with a 3.0 game lead on the Cubs and a 4.0 game lead on the Brewers. They had the best record in all of baseball at 20-10. Since that date they’ve gone 11-22 and now trail both the Brewers and Cubs by 5.5 games.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#98

Posted: June 10, 2019, 6:39 AM Post
Posts: 3060
adambr2 said:
True or False:

The current 5 playoff teams (Dodgers, Brewers, Phillies, Cubs and Braves), will be the 5 playoff teams at the end of the season.


True.

The Phillies edge out the Cardinals and Rockies for the second wild card. With the crew edging out the Cubbies for the central.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
#99

Posted: June 10, 2019, 6:49 AM Post
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The Brewers roster construction is odd. They had a poor run differential last year and it looks to be similar this year. When you are successful in something using unconventional methods, that's going to throw off statistical modeling because it doesn't know how to account for what you're doing.


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Online  Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races Discussion
Posted: June 10, 2019, 7:01 AM Post
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Location: Neenah
I'm eager to see how the Marlins play the Cards this week.


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