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Christian Yelich

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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
Posted: August 06, 2019, 1:11 PM Post
Posts: 11435
KeithStone53151 said:
MrTPlush said:
Not even close. The only thing that will make him a lock for the MVP is the Triple Crown. The fact we are starting to circle the toilet it may be the only way to even win as missing the postseason pretty much kills any chance at the MVP. It is ridiculously close right now though. If we make it as a WC team I bet Bellinger would win because his team is better and Yelich won last year.


If Bellinger falls back 30-50 points in OPS while yelich maintains, that might do it also. It's truly a 2 horse race in my opinion. The triple crown actually appears somewhat attainable. He's only ahead in HR, but he's only 1 point behind in average and 5 rbi at the moment. A strong finish could get him there.


In my opinion 50-30 is amazing, but more of a fun fact elite stat. I just don't think it is going to get hyped. The Triple Crown is like the grand daddy of league domination. I can't see some with the later losing the MVP. I don't really like his chances though, the competition is way to dense in RBIs and to some extent AVG. If he pulls it off with all the competition any writer voting someone else should be smacked.

He is going to need a sizeable gap to win without the triple crown and missing the postseason. He is notably BEHIND Bellinger in WAR...not really a good look. Can't see him winning with a lower WAR and not in the postseason.


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
Posted: August 06, 2019, 1:12 PM Post
Posts: 18459
homer said:
If Yelich goes 50/30 and doesn' twin the MVP it will only be because voters just don't want the same guy to win it two years in a row.


That and last year we won the division and #1 seed and this year we're flirting with .500 and just trying to stay alive in the playoff race while Bellinger's team is blowing everyone else in the NL out of the water. Team performance is important to a lot of voters.


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
Posted: August 06, 2019, 1:15 PM Post
Posts: 1973
homer said:
If Yelich goes 50/30 and doesn' twin the MVP it will only be because voters just don't want the same guy to win it two years in a row. I doubt most of them look at defensive win shares or anything like that. If Bellinger was like Lo Cain out there then maybe but it's close enough between the two where I doubt it comes into play.


For MVP, team wins matter. Bellinger will likely lead a 1st place team and best team in the NL, and that tips the scales for close calls on MVP.


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
Posted: August 06, 2019, 1:18 PM Post
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rickh150 said:
homer said:
If Yelich goes 50/30 and doesn' twin the MVP it will only be because voters just don't want the same guy to win it two years in a row. I doubt most of them look at defensive win shares or anything like that. If Bellinger was like Lo Cain out there then maybe but it's close enough between the two where I doubt it comes into play.


For MVP, team wins matter. Bellinger will likely lead a 1st place team and best team in the NL, and that tips the scales for close calls on MVP.


Which is also dumb.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Online  Re: Christian Yelich
Posted: August 06, 2019, 1:22 PM Post
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rickh150 said:
homer said:
If Yelich goes 50/30 and doesn' twin the MVP it will only be because voters just don't want the same guy to win it two years in a row. I doubt most of them look at defensive win shares or anything like that. If Bellinger was like Lo Cain out there then maybe but it's close enough between the two where I doubt it comes into play.


For MVP, team wins matter. Bellinger will likely lead a 1st place team and best team in the NL, and that tips the scales for close calls on MVP.


Also a team that has a stacked lineup and pitching staff. Take Bellinger out of that lineup, and that team is still winning 95+ games. How many wins do the Brewers have without Yelich?


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
Posted: August 06, 2019, 1:36 PM Post
Posts: 639
Location: Washburn, WI
Bellinger was hitting about .400 through the first 50 games of the year. In the last 60 games, his average has dropped to .325. Obviously he wasn’t going to hit .400 all season, but what has he been hitting the last 60 games to drop it that much? .260-.270? If he continues to hit at that pace and finishes with an average under .300, I think Yelich would have a pretty strong case if he finishes around .340. Especially if he finishes with 50+ homers and 30+ stolen bases.


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
Posted: August 06, 2019, 1:39 PM Post
Posts: 460
In a close race I agree the 2 years in a row thing works against Yelich as much as the team record does. He needs to have a finish like last year to remove all doubt, I would say another batting title along with the HR title will make him tough to pass on.


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
Posted: August 06, 2019, 1:45 PM Post
Posts: 11435
Bellinger's splits are quite possibly some of the most incredible splits I have ever seen. If his production was a pie and you cut it in half you wouldn't see a difference using a ruler. Almost every single stat (walks and strikeouts included) are almost a mirror image if the PAs for each was the same.

His OPS difference between the two: 0.003


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
Posted: August 06, 2019, 1:57 PM Post
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Yelich has no chance. He is assured of finishing 2nd place. At this point it doesn't matter if the Brewers get a Wild Card the MVP is not coming off this team when Bellinger's team is winning 100+. He would have had to just CLEARLY dominated Bellinger to win it again. I'm talking beat him in homers by 15 and hit 40 points higher. Any benefit of the doubt is going to Bellinger.


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Online  Re: Christian Yelich
Posted: August 06, 2019, 2:09 PM Post
Posts: 4563
Location: Madison, WI
OldSchoolSnapper said:
Yelich has no chance. He is assured of finishing 2nd place. At this point it doesn't matter if the Brewers get a Wild Card the MVP is not coming off this team when Bellinger's team is winning 100+. He would have had to just CLEARLY dominated Bellinger to win it again. I'm talking beat him in homers by 15 and hit 40 points higher. Any benefit of the doubt is going to Bellinger.


Generally agree. Bellinger would need to seriously fall off to finish the year for this to happen. Which could happen with 2 months to go. But as long as he's close he'll win. There's a long precedent for it. Just look at Trout's whole career


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
Posted: August 06, 2019, 2:24 PM Post
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I would agree with the previous two posters UNLESS Yelich wins the Triple Crown. I think that would be a huge factor with some voters.

If it's close, and Yelich doesn't win triple crown, Bellinger is going to win. His team is much better, and it doesn't hurt that he can play all over the OF and 1B.


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
Posted: August 06, 2019, 2:30 PM Post
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A miraculous playoff push from the Brewers could also generate some votes for Yelich. The Dodgers have an 18 game lead in their division...nobody will be talking about them in September.

But yes, generally agreed that a "tie" goes to Bellinger.


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
Posted: August 06, 2019, 5:00 PM Post
Posts: 389
MrTPlush said:
KeithStone53151 said:
MrTPlush said:
Not even close. The only thing that will make him a lock for the MVP is the Triple Crown. The fact we are starting to circle the toilet it may be the only way to even win as missing the postseason pretty much kills any chance at the MVP. It is ridiculously close right now though. If we make it as a WC team I bet Bellinger would win because his team is better and Yelich won last year.


If Bellinger falls back 30-50 points in OPS while yelich maintains, that might do it also. It's truly a 2 horse race in my opinion. The triple crown actually appears somewhat attainable. He's only ahead in HR, but he's only 1 point behind in average and 5 rbi at the moment. A strong finish could get him there.


In my opinion 50-30 is amazing, but more of a fun fact elite stat. I just don't think it is going to get hyped. The Triple Crown is like the grand daddy of league domination. I can't see some with the later losing the MVP. I don't really like his chances though, the competition is way to dense in RBIs and to some extent AVG. If he pulls it off with all the competition any writer voting someone else should be smacked.

He is going to need a sizeable gap to win without the triple crown and missing the postseason. He is notably BEHIND Bellinger in WAR...not really a good look. Can't see him winning with a lower WAR and not in the postseason.


Yellich being behind anybody in WAR shows you what a joke war really is.


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
Posted: August 06, 2019, 5:09 PM Post
Posts: 18459
I mean...Bellinger HAS been pretty equally amazing. It's not like it's a travesty or anything.


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
Posted: August 06, 2019, 5:13 PM Post
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wntrtxn21 said:
Yellich being behind anybody in WAR shows you what a joke war really is.


[laughing]

I think you meant to say it shows how great WAR is...

Anyway, they are essentially tied in WAR depending on if you use bWAR or fWAR and if you include dWAR or not. Which matches the dead heat in traditional stats.


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
Posted: August 06, 2019, 5:16 PM Post
Posts: 1003
wntrtxn21 said:
Yellich being behind anybody in WAR shows you what a joke war really is.


If anything here is a joke, it's that take.


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
Posted: August 06, 2019, 5:24 PM Post
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wntrtxn21 said:
Yellich being behind anybody in WAR shows you what a joke war really is.


According to FanGraphs Christian is only behind Trout, they've got him tied with Bellinger.

Their PAs are essentially equal (465 vs 470), their wRC+ are essentially equal (180 vs 178), Yelich has the edge in baserunning (+4.4 vs -0.3) while Cody has the edge in fielding (+7.5 vs +2.2 UZR).

BRef is essentially the same, but they use DRS for fielding which has Bellinger +17, so that accounts for the 1 WAR edge he currently has over Christian there.


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
Posted: August 06, 2019, 5:46 PM Post
Posts: 11435
Every time I see someone call WAR a joke I have to wonder the percentage of said people that probably couldn’t even tell you what goes into WAR. I bet it is at least 75%.


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
Posted: August 06, 2019, 8:40 PM Post
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sveumrules said:
wntrtxn21 said:
Yellich being behind anybody in WAR shows you what a joke war really is.


According to FanGraphs Christian is only behind Trout, they've got him tied with Bellinger.

Their PAs are essentially equal (465 vs 470), their wRC+ are essentially equal (180 vs 178), Yelich has the edge in baserunning (+4.4 vs -0.3) while Cody has the edge in fielding (+7.5 vs +2.2 UZR).

BRef is essentially the same, but they use DRS for fielding which has Bellinger +17, so that accounts for the 1 WAR edge he currently has over Christian there.



Not a huge fan of the formula Bref uses for DRS... but it kind of is what it is. Yelich is a good, not great fielder.


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
Posted: August 07, 2019, 6:35 AM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
How many wins do the Brewers have without Yelich?


3. Maybe 4.

"I wasted so much time in my life hating Juventus or A.C. Milan that I should have spent hating the Cardinals." ~kalle8

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