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Christian Yelich

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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
#21

Posted: March 31, 2019, 9:16 PM Post
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Location: Milwaukee, WI
We have him locked up until he hits 30. Why not just let it play out and let him sign a humongous deal elsewhere when he's headed back down the hill?


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
#22

Posted: April 01, 2019, 6:49 AM Post
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Brew4U said:
We have him locked up until he hits 30. Why not just let it play out and let him sign a humongous deal elsewhere when he's headed back down the hill?


Well right now I am thinking those 31-34 years might be pretty good. But it doesn't make sense for either side right now, the Brewers would need a discount to extend so early and Yelich is already a rich man, he doesn't need the security so much anymore. Maybe he doesn't like how things have went for some other 30ish free agents lately or fears some big change in the labor agreement but I doubt it.

But after his NL and WS MVP's this season the Brewers might want to make him a long term centerpiece. [smile]


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
#23

Posted: April 01, 2019, 6:52 AM Post
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Brew4U said:
We have him locked up until he hits 30. Why not just let it play out and let him sign a humongous deal elsewhere when he's headed back down the hill?


Yelich strikes me at the kind of hitter who, barring injury, would age well.

If the Crew could get him to defer money - and sign a relatively team-friendly deal as Braun did - I think it would be good.


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
#24

Posted: April 01, 2019, 7:00 AM Post
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RollieTime said:
Yelich has the most pure swing I’ve ever seen. The ball just flies off his bat even though he’s fairly slim.

I found it interesting how Yelich reminds me a little bit of Ken Griffey Jr. with his size, swing, and the way the ball jumps off his bat. Sure enough, they were both 6’3 and 195 pounds. Quite a lofty comparison, but Yelich is the real deal. Those two guys are pretty similar to me. Hopefully Yelich has a few seasons similar to Griffey Jr.’s when he was healthy. If he does, we will be in for a real treat the next few seasons.


Yelich may be slim but he is very athletically built. 6'3 is a good amount of leverage, which is a lot more useful for launching a ball than brute strength. He's very stringy and built with an abundance of fast-twitch. So he's slim, but not in the same way Carl Edwards Jr. is or something.


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
#25

Posted: April 01, 2019, 7:11 AM Post
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I don't see the sense in extending him now. He's what, 27? His value is at an all-time high and I doubt it can get higher. You have four years of control and he is 31 at his next FA period. He can still get hurt or have any number of things go wrong that make him an easier extension down the road.

Sure, you might be able to lock him in long term and end up on top if he continues to be Barry Bonds for four years. We likely have him for the most productive chunk of his career already. He could age well, but these things just aren't guaranteed. It seems unnecessarily risky for the club at this point and more likely not to work out for them than to go well.


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
#26

Posted: April 01, 2019, 7:25 AM Post
Posts: 10336
clancyphile said:
Brew4U said:
We have him locked up until he hits 30. Why not just let it play out and let him sign a humongous deal elsewhere when he's headed back down the hill?


Yelich strikes me at the kind of hitter who, barring injury, would age well.

If the Crew could get him to defer money - and sign a relatively team-friendly deal as Braun did - I think it would be good.


Yah, so was Braun when we extended him. Now he is made of glass and I think he uses his bat as a cane walking to the plate.

In all seriousness did we seriously not learn anything from the Braun extension? We extended a guy waaay before he would even hit free egency and it turned into a bad idea before that extension even kicked in. He had his little PED fiasco and then after that died down he had the thumb problem (among other constant injuries). All this before that extension even kicked in.

I don't think that contract will be an albatross, where his play doesn't even warrant a roster spot, but man we likely would have been way better off without the extension happening. If we didn't have him extended Khris Davis would still be here or Domingo Santana would still be roaming our OF. If you don't like either of those guys I am sure we could find someone to put up average offense for a lot less than $20mil a year.

I don't mind having Braun on the team and since he at least hits somewhat decently it isn't a painful extension...but pretty hard to argue we would probably get better production for half the cost or less elsewhere. Whether a different addition or someone we had, but traded away because we didn't have room. Lorenzo Cain for example had a similar cost through FA.

I want nothing to do with a Yelich extension this year, next year, and probably never. It just probably isn't a good idea.


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
#27

Posted: April 01, 2019, 7:37 AM Post
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OldSchoolSnapper said:
I don't see the sense in extending him now. He's what, 27? His value is at an all-time high and I doubt it can get higher. You have four years of control and he is 31 at his next FA period. He can still get hurt or have any number of things go wrong that make him an easier extension down the road.

Sure, you might be able to lock him in long term and end up on top if he continues to be Barry Bonds for four years. We likely have him for the most productive chunk of his career already. He could age well, but these things just aren't guaranteed. It seems unnecessarily risky for the club at this point and more likely not to work out for them than to go well.


If not seven years, at least try to get three or four more.

Yelich is a very rare talent... and an extension turns the trade into a win for the Brewers.


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Online  Re: Christian Yelich
#28

Posted: April 01, 2019, 7:38 AM Post
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clancyphile said:

Yelich is a very rare talent... and an extension turns the trade into a win for the Brewers.


Um ... what? You don't consider it a win already?


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
#29

Posted: April 01, 2019, 7:40 AM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
clancyphile said:

Yelich is a very rare talent... and an extension turns the trade into a win for the Brewers.


Um ... what? You don't consider it a win already?


It's a probable win, but if Brinson, Diaz, Harrison, and Yamamoto become good assets for the Marlins, the deal gets closer to a draw.

Getting Yelich for another four years tips the balance more clearly in the Crew's favor, IMO.


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
#30

Posted: April 01, 2019, 8:22 AM Post
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MrTPlush said:

Yah, so was Braun when we extended him. Now he is made of glass and I think he uses his bat as a cane walking to the plate.

In all seriousness did we seriously not learn anything from the Braun extension? We extended a guy waaay before he would even hit free egency and it turned into a bad idea before that extension even kicked in. He had his little PED fiasco and then after that died down he had the thumb problem (among other constant injuries). All this before that extension even kicked in.

I don't think that contract will be an albatross, where his play doesn't even warrant a roster spot, but man we likely would have been way better off without the extension happening. If we didn't have him extended Khris Davis would still be here or Domingo Santana would still be roaming our OF. If you don't like either of those guys I am sure we could find someone to put up average offense for a lot less than $20mil a year.

I don't mind having Braun on the team and since he at least hits somewhat decently it isn't a painful extension...but pretty hard to argue we would probably get better production for half the cost or less elsewhere. Whether a different addition or someone we had, but traded away because we didn't have room. Lorenzo Cain for example had a similar cost through FA.

I want nothing to do with a Yelich extension this year, next year, and probably never. It just probably isn't a good idea.


Braun was always sort of beat up even in his prime years, it seemed like he was always playing through something and had to be shut down for a week or so every year, some have speculated the PEDs were about that rather than performance.

The extension hasn't been great but like you say not an albatross either. And at least for me it means something having one of our all time greats being a part of these contending teams. And we don't know the end yet, it's not that big of reach to think he could put up like 2 WAR each of the next 2 years which isn't playing too far under his salary. I don't disagree with you on not extending Yelich right now but I don't think the Braun contract really stands out as such a disaster that we have to avoid ever doing something like it again. They knew there was risk of not getting great seasons toward the end but rewarded a guy who was the face of the franchise at the time and looked like a future HOF.


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
#31

Posted: April 01, 2019, 8:24 AM Post
Posts: 10336
It is already a win. We did it to win now. The only way it could have been a loss is if Brinson turned into something similar to what Yelich did for us instantly. And since Yelich is Barry Bonds and Brinson so far has been a pile of dung it is pretty obvious we did good on our end. Hard to really say we won over the Marlins because each team did the trade for entirely different goals. And since the stories of the players have yet to be finished they didn't lose the trade yet on their end.

It is much like the Greinke trade, except in that case both teams won. We won then and the Royals won later on. Now, yes, we didn't win it all...but honestly I don't think that is the most appropriate way to grade win now trades. Or else most of the things we do (actually all of them) are terrible moves. Greinke improved us tenfold and now Yelich is improving us tenfold. Stellar moves that took are team from good to special. They gave us World Series contenders.


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
#32

Posted: April 01, 2019, 8:47 AM Post
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With the DH coming to the National League in the near future, I think the calculus changes. I think the Crew can afford to extend Yelich, because as a DH, he would have much less wear and tear in the later years.


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
#33

Posted: April 01, 2019, 8:49 AM Post
Posts: 776
clancyphile said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
clancyphile said:

Yelich is a very rare talent... and an extension turns the trade into a win for the Brewers.


Um ... what? You don't consider it a win already?


It's a probable win, but if Brinson, Diaz, Harrison, and Yamamoto become good assets for the Marlins, the deal gets closer to a draw.

Getting Yelich for another four years tips the balance more clearly in the Crew's favor, IMO.


I don't really subscribe to this zero-sum theory of evaluating a trade. If Yelich keeps playing well, not even MVP level well but "only" 4-5 WAR, it's a win for the Brewers even if the guys we gave up become stars. Brewers wanted production starting in 2018 and several years going forward. Marlins didn't care about 2018 and 2019 but wanted production in the future. If teams get what they want from a trade, at a price they were willing to pay, it's a win no matter what the other side gets.


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
#34

Posted: April 01, 2019, 9:04 AM Post
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We don't have the 2018 we did without Yelich, so it is already a great trade for us. I don't really care if all those guys become stars, that was an amazing, fun year.

My brother still argues with me to death that the Sabathia trade was bad because we mortgaged the farm. In his words it doesn't matter that LaPorta flamed out because we didn't know that at the time and therefore it was bad since we only got half a season of CC. It gives me a headache every time.


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
#35

Posted: April 01, 2019, 9:17 AM Post
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clancyphile said:
With the DH coming to the National League in the near future, I think the calculus changes. I think the Crew can afford to extend Yelich, because as a DH, he would have much less wear and tear in the later years.


Our ability to afford Yelich is worsened by the DH. It is like adding another player to pay for.


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
#36

Posted: April 01, 2019, 9:55 AM Post
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The Weatherman
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I really wish the DH was already in the NL. We could have kept Domingo Santana around.

Looking at Braun's career, the Brewers have paid him about $2 million per 1 offensive WAR so I think they've gotten a pretty good deal overall. Braun has also remained productive and shows no signs of a steep decline.

If Yelich showed interest in extending you bet the Brewers will be at the table. But it doesn't seem like the best choice for either party right now given the unknowns in the CBA when any extension would kick in.


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
#37

Posted: April 01, 2019, 9:59 AM Post
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Yelich has already said he loves MKE and would love to get an extension. It's just unlikely since he did sign one with Miami and is sitting front row as Machado and Trout sign monster deals. He said he has no regrets, and that's believable, but it's also entirely reasonable and expected that he plans on getting his in a few years.

You hate to say this out loud, but depending on what's going on with the Brewers at the time, he is a likely trade candidate in the second to last or last year of that deal. You could probably get the kind of haul in return that cities like MKE need to stay competitive.


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
#38

Posted: April 01, 2019, 10:06 AM Post
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OldSchoolSnapper said:
You hate to say this out loud, but depending on what's going on with the Brewers at the time, he is a likely trade candidate in the second to last or last year of that deal. You could probably get the kind of haul in return that cities like MKE need to stay competitive.


Based on recent trades (e.g. Goldschmidt) it seems unlikely that the Brewers could net large enough of a return to not only offset Yelich's value but also offset the negative PR that would come from trading the new face of the franchise. But as you say, who knows where the team will be in a couple years. I'm hoping for an Astros-like run of sustained success.


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Online  Re: Christian Yelich
#39

Posted: April 01, 2019, 1:55 PM Post
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owbc said:
OldSchoolSnapper said:
You hate to say this out loud, but depending on what's going on with the Brewers at the time, he is a likely trade candidate in the second to last or last year of that deal. You could probably get the kind of haul in return that cities like MKE need to stay competitive.


Based on recent trades (e.g. Goldschmidt) it seems unlikely that the Brewers could net large enough of a return to not only offset Yelich's value but also offset the negative PR that would come from trading the new face of the franchise. But as you say, who knows where the team will be in a couple years. I'm hoping for an Astros-like run of sustained success.


On strictly superficial financial terms, Yelich should probably be traded before his contract is up. However, it seems like he is being groomed to become the face of the franchise (if he isn't already) and a future legend. There is value there beyond simple year-to-year WAR calculations.


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
#40

Posted: April 01, 2019, 2:11 PM Post
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owbc said:
Looking at Braun's career, the Brewers have paid him about $2 million per 1 offensive WAR so I think they've gotten a pretty good deal overall.


I mean if that is what helps you rationalize a bad contract extension. I hear people say this all the time. They were separate transactions. You don't get to lump them together.


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