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Christian Yelich

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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
#61

Posted: April 03, 2019, 7:36 AM Post
Posts: 3421
coolhandluke121 said:
OldSchoolSnapper said:

My brother still argues with me to death that the Sabathia trade was bad because we mortgaged the farm. In his words it doesn't matter that LaPorta flamed out because we didn't know that at the time and therefore it was bad since we only got half a season of CC. It gives me a headache every time.


Michael Brantley would have been a big help at a very low price for several years. Same goes for Cain departing in the Greinke trade. I personally think the Brewers lost more chances to make the playoffs than they gained by making those two trades, and I think what they're doing now reflects the fact that Mark A learned his lesson (he has even said this, in so many words). If it's a last-gasp effort to win a title, by all means pull out all the stops, but they were doing this stuff when they had a great young core and a chance to have sustainable success. They weren't terrible trades or anything, but I think they were kind of short-sighted.

Now we don't see them giving up much value for short-term patches. Moustakas, Schoop, Claudio? Fine. But they aren't giving away excessive surplus value for short-term rentals anymore, and I'm very glad for that. The Yelich deal is exactly the type of opportunity you hold out for.



I've never seen Mark A say anything negative about any of those three trades. Perhaps you could jog my memory and show me where he has said that or even hinted at it?

Every time I've heard Mark talk about the trades, namely for CC and Greinke, he's spoken glowingly about them. I'd be interested to hear him say he learned a lesson and it was to not make those types of trades again.


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Online  Re: Christian Yelich
#62

Posted: April 03, 2019, 7:37 AM Post
Posts: 4099
Location: Madison, WI
Ennder said:
coolhandluke121 said:
OldSchoolSnapper said:

My brother still argues with me to death that the Sabathia trade was bad because we mortgaged the farm. In his words it doesn't matter that LaPorta flamed out because we didn't know that at the time and therefore it was bad since we only got half a season of CC. It gives me a headache every time.


Michael Brantley would have been a big help at a very low price for several years. Same goes for Cain departing in the Greinke trade. I personally think the Brewers lost more chances to make the playoffs than they gained by making those two trades, and I think what they're doing now reflects the fact that Mark A learned his lesson (he has even said this, in so many words). If it's a last-gasp effort to win a title, by all means pull out all the stops, but they were doing this stuff when they had a great young core and a chance to have sustainable success. They weren't terrible trades or anything, but I think they were kind of short-sighted.

Now we don't see them giving up much value for short-term patches. Moustakas, Schoop, Claudio? Fine. But they aren't giving away excessive surplus value for short-term rentals anymore, and I'm very glad for that. The Yelich deal is exactly the type of opportunity you hold out for.



From 2011-2014 the Brewers got 16.9 WAR out of Carlos Gomez. Brantley was 12.4 WAR over that time frame. Cain was 14 WAR over that time frame. We got better production by trading these guys and getting Gomez.


That's pretty much what I've said in these talks over the years with folks who act like we mortgaged the future for those trades. The only really great players we gave up were Cain and Brantley but we were stacked in OF anyway so really it didn't kill us at all. Remember you had two spot filled with Braun/Hart too. Oh and Odarazzi was a solid P. Basically I don't think having Odarazzi and another good OF during the 13-16ish bad run would've made a difference really at all.

In 08 who knows what happens if Sheets doesn't get hurt and you have those two aces for the playoffs. '11 you had a 1-0 lead in the NLCS with home field in NLCS and WS. I think they were the right moves.

Braun extension at the time was definitely a discount price that made sense to lock in so you have your star player for years. Keep in mind they were sitting there knowing Prince was gone and obviously didn't want the PR of losing both guys. Like I think I said though, if yelich doesn't give a big discount like Braun did then it's pointless to worry about it now with so many years of control. If he wants to tack on 3-4 more years at 15-20 well yea I guess so but if you're giving him 25+ mil then what's the rush.


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
#63

Posted: April 03, 2019, 7:41 AM Post
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I am convinced that the only reason the Braun extension ever happened is because the Brewers were in dire need of a "Face of the Franchise" for their history. I mean the franchise was still living on the back of Robin Yount (and to some extent Molitor). The younger generations needed someone to cling to for life, insert Braun. I think the Brewers thought he would be decent during the extension period, but I also think they didn't care if he wasn't because the extension was to almost assure him a Brewer for life. That is what the goal was.

I don't think we are desperate for that kind of figure even if Braun self imploded his status in Brewer lore. I don't think they are going to get the post-career Braun they were banking on, but he will still go down as a major guy in history. He probably still gets his number retired etc. The only reason to do such a extension years before FA is to do exactly that, put a guy in your franchises shrine forever. I don't think we are desperate to make Yelich that.

I am guessing Yelich's comparable deal to what Braun did would be about 5/$125mil.


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
#64

Posted: April 03, 2019, 7:47 AM Post
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I think that was definitely a factor at play, Tplush. And I don't think they are wrong for it. Guys like that are still putting people in the seats when the team is so-so. Despite the PED thing he is still a revered figure in MKE. I also agree that they're not getting a post-career Yount guy, Braun just isn't that guy. He's a SoCal guy and he'll be there when he's done playing.

The blowback from Fielder and Braun walking away would have been catastrophic from a branding perspective. Remember that around the time, they also (expectedly) offered Sabathia a deal that he and his agent basically laughed at. There was definitely a prevailing thought that we could not do anything but trade our best players away.


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
#65

Posted: April 03, 2019, 7:54 AM Post
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Oh I don't blame them for giving Braun that deal. I liked it at the time and still would even if he was doing his current production had the PED thing not happened. Having him as a career Brewer would have been worth it.

I think they knew that $20mil wouldn't be all that much by the time it kicked in too. Back in 2011 $20mil actually would have been elite status salary...now not so much. Offer Yelich $25mil and that may seem like a lot in 2019 terms, but by the time it kicks in that won't be near market rate. $20mil was about 20% of the payroll in 2011 terms and $25mil would be about 20% of the payroll in 2019 terms. So, yah, somewhere in the $125mil-$140mil range would be Yelich's comparable to the Braun deal over 5 years.


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Online  Re: Christian Yelich
#66

Posted: April 03, 2019, 8:13 AM Post
Posts: 1895
Fear The Chorizo said:

If C.C., Greinke, and Marcum weren't acquired at those points, the Brewers aren't playoff teams in 2008 or 2011. I disagree that the Brewers would have somehow made the playoffs more frequently during that stretch by retaining Brantley, LaPorta, Zach Jackson, Rob Bryson, Brett Lawrie, Escobar, Cain, Jeffress, and Odorizzi instead of giving their core of young MLB talent the one thing it desperately needed at the time to give them a shot at the postseason - quality to ace-caliber starting pitching. The fact is, those teams weren't nearly as deep and talented as what Stearns has put together currently - and the prospects they gave up for getting those two postseason berths were well worth giving up. Had they not acquired those starters, 2018 could have easily been the sole postseason berth in this entire stretch.


But the reason they weren't as deep and talented is precisely because of the mortgage-the-future philosophy they implemented almost the moment Mark A bought the team. My trump card is his own comments acknowledging the flaws in that approach. I'm having trouble finding those comments, but I distinctly remember him openly admitting that he had to re-evaluate his philosophy and stop depleting the young talent pipeline. He admitted that his moves were consistently short-sighted for years. It's also the draft picks they gave up to sign free agents and all the times they turned up their nose at a chance to trade an aging player for something of value when they weren't a contender anyway, choosing instead to keep him until he was just dead weight on the payroll.

He himself all but explicitly said those kind of moves just make the franchise worse in the long run. I respected those comments and I'm glad he openly learned his lesson instead of excusing his failures, but that doesn't mean he made good decisions in his first 10 years. I once did an analysis of the talent he inherited when he bought the team, both in the minors and in the majors, and I found it impossible to conclude that they did anything but underachieve in the Fielder--->Braun era.

As for Gomez being better than Brantley or Cain, which someone else mentioned, that's reductionism because they could play other positions or be traded for someone who's not just a rental. The point is not that you can't trade any young players; just don't trade them in short-sighted moves. It could have been a logjam for a little while, but look at the so-called logjam at OF/1B last year. We all know how that played out. Good asset management carried the day. It's fitting that the Royals made the playoffs several times and won a title after trading Greinke away, and that's the type of thing the Brewers should have been doing - not the exact opposite.

Sorry, this is the Yelich thread, but the underlying point is still that you should save your best assets for opportunities like that, not for rentals like Sabathia. They are doing that now and never buckling to temptation, and for this reason the success they are having now should be sustainable (with some luck), unlike the fleeting success of 2008 and 2011. And this method has worked with much less blue-chip talent to start with (this team has some roots in great minor league depth, but Weeks, Hart, Braun, Fielder, Hardy, and Gallardo were all big-time prospects).


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
#67

Posted: April 03, 2019, 8:19 AM Post
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I don't see this discount that Braun gave us. When you're signing away a contract 4 years away from free agency from a team perspective, you need a big discount because your offer reflects how far away that player is from free agency. The further away they are, the less leverage they have and the more risk you're taking on. In addition, you're paying that player for what you expect them to be at that time, not what they are now. So an extension offer to Yelich this far out certainly wouldn't and shouldn't reflect what his current value would be if he was a FA.

What is that number? I really don't know, but I highly doubt they would give him 5/125 on an extension this early. That's basically what Goldschmidt just got from the Cardinals at the same age Yelich would be, except he was less than a year from free agency with far more leverage, and he has a longer established track record of being an elite hitter, whereas Christian was more of the 'very good' variety his entire career until his breakout last season.

The "face of the franchise" argument to extend Braun at that time and keep him there his entire career probably has merit. I would argue that I think the Brewer brand is a little stronger now than it was at the time to where it's not as important for them to make sure Yelich never leaves. I think Stearns will be more focused on whether or not an extension makes good baseball sense, and I don't see him taking that big of a risk this early.


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Online  Re: Christian Yelich
#68

Posted: April 03, 2019, 8:20 AM Post
Posts: 4099
Location: Madison, WI
I would agree overall it's not the ideal long term strategy for a team to do it for 1-2 year players. I just think at the time their hand was forced by the previous regime and state of the team/farm in that they knew they had this loaded offensive lineup but basically no pitching. So they knew if they didn't add pitching they'd waste all those hitters primes, including having two MVP level hitters at the same time. Having not made the playoffs in 25 years and being a punching bag for small markets to just lose their players they didn't want to trade all those hitters just to perpetually rebuild. So I get it and agree with them doing it. I feel like it also rejuvenated the fans a bit to come out and support the team pretty much ever since, would that have happened if they didn't actually get good for a few years? IDK. But yes, I'm also happy they see that as not the overall long term plan here going forward.


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Online  Re: Christian Yelich
#69

Posted: April 03, 2019, 8:26 AM Post
Posts: 4099
Location: Madison, WI
adambr2 said:
I don't see this discount that Braun gave us. When you're signing away a contract 4 years away from free agency from a team perspective, you need a big discount because your offer reflects how far away that player is from free agency. The further away they are, the less leverage they have and the more risk you're taking on. In addition, you're paying that player for what you expect them to be at that time, not what they are now. So an extension offer to Yelich this far out certainly wouldn't and shouldn't reflect what his current value would be if he was a FA.

What is that number? I really don't know, but I highly doubt they would give him 5/125 on an extension this early. That's basically what Goldschmidt just got from the Cardinals at the same age Yelich would be, except he was less than a year from free agency with far more leverage, and he has a longer established track record of being an elite hitter, whereas Christian was more of the 'very good' variety his entire career until his breakout last season.

The "face of the franchise" argument to extend Braun at that time and keep him there his entire career probably has merit. I would argue that I think the Brewer brand is a little stronger now than it was at the time to where it's not as important for them to make sure Yelich never leaves. I think Stearns will be more focused on whether or not an extension makes good baseball sense, and I don't see him taking that big of a risk this early.


That is the discount. That's exactly what we're saying. Braun did it so that it made sense and Yelich would have to as well or else what's the point. Pretty much as you said in the later paragraph. I actually think you're in agreeance with what I and a couple others just said but just some semantics on the word 'discount'.


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
#70

Posted: April 03, 2019, 8:31 AM Post
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adambr2 said:
I don't see this discount that Braun gave us. When you're signing away a contract 4 years away from free agency from a team perspective, you need a big discount because your offer reflects how far away that player is from free agency. The further away they are, the less leverage they have and the more risk you're taking on. In addition, you're paying that player for what you expect them to be at that time, not what they are now. So an extension offer to Yelich this far out certainly wouldn't and shouldn't reflect what his current value would be if he was a FA.

What is that number? I really don't know, but I highly doubt they would give him 5/125 on an extension this early. That's basically what Goldschmidt just got from the Cardinals at the same age Yelich would be, except he was less than a year from free agency with far more leverage, and he has a longer established track record of being an elite hitter, whereas Christian was more of the 'very good' variety his entire career until his breakout last season.

The "face of the franchise" argument to extend Braun at that time and keep him there his entire career probably has merit. I would argue that I think the Brewer brand is a little stronger now than it was at the time to where it's not as important for them to make sure Yelich never leaves. I think Stearns will be more focused on whether or not an extension makes good baseball sense, and I don't see him taking that big of a risk this early.


Braun signed an 8-year deal for like $50mm the same year that Sabathia signed for 7/$160mm I believe. I know these are very imperfect comparisons but Braun signed a very reasonable extension.

I think people are very revisionist about this. When Braun signed the 5-year extension for $100mm or whatever it was, he would go on to win MVP and was regarded as one of the best hitters in baseball. PEDs were not even on the radar, he was Mr. Golden Boy. He was absolutely going to be the modern Yount. When he signed that lifetime deal it was a celebratory moment.

I am in agreement with holding off on Yelich. But I don't think, given the context and inability to predict Braun's scandal, that they deserve criticism for it. The PED situation was not just hard to predict, but Braun was a brand's fantasy come to life. Everybody in WI loved him at the time. He was BFF with the Packer's QB for Pete's sake.


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
#71

Posted: April 03, 2019, 8:35 AM Post
Posts: 196
Brew4U said:
How is Larry Walker not in the HOF?


I think voters look at where he played the vast majority of his career; Colorado.


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
#72

Posted: April 03, 2019, 8:45 AM Post
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Hard to get in without 3k hits or 500 bombs. You essentially have to be Ozzie with the leather. Walker is a decent comp with Cecil Cooper, who isn't in for the same reason.


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
#73

Posted: April 03, 2019, 8:46 AM Post
Posts: 196
MrTPlush said:
clancyphile said:
Brew4U said:
We have him locked up until he hits 30. Why not just let it play out and let him sign a humongous deal elsewhere when he's headed back down the hill?


Yelich strikes me at the kind of hitter who, barring injury, would age well.

If the Crew could get him to defer money - and sign a relatively team-friendly deal as Braun did - I think it would be good.


Yah, so was Braun when we extended him. Now he is made of glass and I think he uses his bat as a cane walking to the plate.

In all seriousness did we seriously not learn anything from the Braun extension? We extended a guy waaay before he would even hit free egency and it turned into a bad idea before that extension even kicked in. He had his little PED fiasco and then after that died down he had the thumb problem (among other constant injuries). All this before that extension even kicked in.

I don't think that contract will be an albatross, where his play doesn't even warrant a roster spot, but man we likely would have been way better off without the extension happening. If we didn't have him extended Khris Davis would still be here or Domingo Santana would still be roaming our OF. If you don't like either of those guys I am sure we could find someone to put up average offense for a lot less than $20mil a year.

I don't mind having Braun on the team and since he at least hits somewhat decently it isn't a painful extension...but pretty hard to argue we would probably get better production for half the cost or less elsewhere. Whether a different addition or someone we had, but traded away because we didn't have room. Lorenzo Cain for example had a similar cost through FA.

I want nothing to do with a Yelich extension this year, next year, and probably never. It just probably isn't a good idea.


Braun's contract had nothing to do with the Brewers letting K. Davis walk. Davis was the absolute worst defensive LF in all of baseball. He is a DH, period. The Brewers couldn't afford to sign him to be strictly a PH.


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
#74

Posted: April 03, 2019, 8:52 AM Post
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OldSchoolSnapper said:
Hard to get in without 3k hits or 500 bombs. You essentially have to be Ozzie with the leather. Walker is a decent comp with Cecil Cooper, who isn't in for the same reason.


Meh... Cooper was a 1st basemen. Walker was an EXCELLENT right fielder with a cannon for an arm who swiped bags at a pretty good clip too. And he won an MVP. He was a complete ballplayer by any measure of the term who should be and will be in the HOF.


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
#75

Posted: April 03, 2019, 9:21 AM Post
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Can we keep a thread about the reigning NL MVP and our player for 4 more years about that player and not about all the other pissing matches on brewerfan?

who gives a crap about Larry Walker in a Christian Yelich thread.... Sheeessshhhh

JosephC said:
Stearns probably had no interest in getting a C because the Brewers need a C. It makes much more sense to trade for 3B when it's not needed, and then move the other 3B to 2B, then trade for a 2B, but since the 3B is now at 2B, then the new 2B goes to SS


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
#76

Posted: April 03, 2019, 10:22 AM Post
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Oxy said:
OldSchoolSnapper said:
Hard to get in without 3k hits or 500 bombs. You essentially have to be Ozzie with the leather. Walker is a decent comp with Cecil Cooper, who isn't in for the same reason.


Meh... Cooper was a 1st basemen. Walker was an EXCELLENT right fielder with a cannon for an arm who swiped bags at a pretty good clip too. And he won an MVP. He was a complete ballplayer by any measure of the term who should be and will be in the HOF.


Don't disagree but Coop was a GG winner, a top 10 MVP vote-getter for several years, and if he hit either bench mark, would be in. It's really hard to get in without doing one of the two, at least it was before PEDs...just saying.

Conversations in life veer into other topics. I never got the "can we stick to this" stuff. It is of no harm, but I do agree it's oddly off this track in this case, lol. Those HOF convos are just always a lot of fun to me.


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
#77

Posted: April 03, 2019, 10:26 AM Post
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Yelich is on pace to be awesome.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Online  Re: Christian Yelich
#78

Posted: April 03, 2019, 10:29 AM Post
Posts: 1895
Walker was a RF and it looks like Yelich will be playing a lot of RF for the Brewers for some time. I think the implied player comparison is reasonable (arm strength being the obvious difference), and it's not surprising that some people ended up debating Walker's place in baseball history when debating the merits of a "Brewer for life" extension for Yelich. Obviously it's a few degrees of separation removed from the original discussion, but it's not like a bullpen debate somehow weaseled its way into this thread.


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Online  Re: Christian Yelich
#79

Posted: April 03, 2019, 11:58 AM Post
Posts: 1895
HiAndTight said:

I've never seen Mark A say anything negative about any of those three trades. Perhaps you could jog my memory and show me where he has said that or even hinted at it?

Every time I've heard Mark talk about the trades, namely for CC and Greinke, he's spoken glowingly about them. I'd be interested to hear him say he learned a lesson and it was to not make those types of trades again.


Not about those three trades in particular, just about the overall philosophy of how they had run the team in a way that was not sustainable. I'm looking all over for the comments, but he's commented on the team so often over the years that it's hard to find the one you're looking for. I know it was when they were bottoming out and he talked about how he had to examine his role in leading the team to that point. It was also around the time when "tanking" was slowly becoming an accepted necessary evil in the media. I think it was probably around the time of the Stearns hire as well, with the change in philosophy that was anticipated to coincide with Stearns' arrival.

I found some similar comments here, but this is not nearly as extensive as the comments I'm remembering, which were more specific about depleting the talent pipeline too much.

“Where we failed, and this starts with me and the zeal to compete each and every year, is we got into the middle and stayed in the middle. If you’re a .500 team, you’re competitive, and that’s not what we’re trying to do, simply be a consistent .500 team.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/27/spor ... -line.html


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Offline  Re: Christian Yelich
#80

Posted: April 03, 2019, 12:08 PM Post
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I'm not really seeing a connection being dissatisfaction of being .500 and trading for Sabathia and Greinke. I think you may be reading into that a bit much, and I don't think Mark A. would ever say he regrets getting either of those guys at the cost paid. I'm also not sure those deals left them in .500 purgatory either. Something like signing Aramis Ramirez for 3/36 would fit that mold more for me.


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