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Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves

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Offline  Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#1

Posted: April 11, 2019, 4:38 PM Post
Posts: 11947
Another player signs off on ridiculous number of years for a maximum of $49mil over the next nine years. Only assures himself $35mil for that. Wish we had some players like the Braves seem to have. Literally almost zero risk here for the Braves with more upside than one could imagine. Good for him, but now is under team control past 30 years old. I....wow.

Almost all walks of baseball life in agreement this is possibly the worst deal ever signed by a player...ever.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/deadspin.c ... 979132/amp


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#2

Posted: April 11, 2019, 5:06 PM Post
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It's all a matter of opinion. I guess I never watch the Braves, so I've never heard of him. But if Alphabet or Amazon buy a small company before they are big, does CNBC declare that they robbed the entrepreneurs by buying them for $500 million instead of $10 billion 4 years later? When Coke bought Glaceau, did people declare they were robbing them?

This contract was not forced upon the kid. He signed it, his agent advised it, and the team agreed to it. If we offered Keston Hiura $60 million for the next 10 years, should he take it? He hasn't seen a day in the majors. Technically he may never see a day in the majors (although unlikely). Remember when Mat Gamel was a stud hitting prospect. It we had offered him a long-term deal, it would have been terrible. It's the risk-reward of this. Teams are assuming some risk with these contracts to young unproven talents, players are receiving money they don't yet deserve. But it can work out for both parties.


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#3

Posted: April 11, 2019, 5:19 PM Post
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But isn't he a willing participant in this so-called robbery?


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#4

Posted: April 11, 2019, 5:24 PM Post
Posts: 2021
I don't know why this is such a bad deal. The player is guaranteed, emphasis on guaranteed, $35 million.


Last edited by rickh150 on April 11, 2019, 5:48 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#5

Posted: April 11, 2019, 5:30 PM Post
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He's a good player. Before this deal, he would be making a little over a million over the next two years and then would be subject to the arbitration system. Last year he had an OPS+ of 102 as a 21 year old.

Now he is guaranteed 35 million. The option years are kind of a joke though. If those were player options then it would be a fine deal. If they were north of $12 million team options then it would be an okay deal too. As it is, those options are a pretty bad deal for him though.


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#6

Posted: April 11, 2019, 5:35 PM Post
Posts: 11947
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.therin ... -extension

It’s bad because even if you wanted to do this deal (length wise and this early in his career) the numbers seem really low. As noted the option years are pathetic. On another deal, again, I’m not saying taking a major team friendly deal is bad...just the terms (especially with Albies) is completely head scratching and looks like he got swindled trying to negotiate his own deal and the conversation was in a different language. Amazing a professional agent couldn’t do better than this honestly.


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#7

Posted: April 11, 2019, 5:47 PM Post
Posts: 2021
If he doesn't perform or gets significantly hurt, he'd make a few million instead of 40 to 50 million.


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#8

Posted: April 11, 2019, 5:53 PM Post
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rickh150 said:
If he doesn't perform or gets significantly hurt, he'd make a few million instead of 40 to 50 million.


I’m not arguing that he did a deal. I am arguing his agent got him a bad deal...or the Braves were cheap, but he was desperate to lock up money...at which point what a bad situation for him.


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#9

Posted: April 11, 2019, 6:37 PM Post
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A very comparable player/timing of extension would be Rougned Odor right before the 2017 season. At that time he actually had another year of decent production under his belt as compared Albies and was also one year older.

He signed a 6 year deal for $49.5M with a 7th year club option for $13.5M. The 5th and 6th years were at $12M and would have been FA years for Odor.

He then proceeded to hit .204/.252/.397 for an OPS+ of 63, then kinda bounced back last year to put up .253/.326/.424 OPS+ of 95.

If the Rangers could go back in time I would guess they would NOT sign that same contract with Odor, but there haven't been any headlines the last coupla years about Odor robbing the Rangers.

In that context the deal looks to be fairly sensible.

Looking back even further, Starlin Castro signed a deal with the Cubs in 2012 for 7 yrs/60M with a club option for an 8th year at $16M. Castro hasn't gotten any better but he hasn't really regressed either, reliably producing solid numbers for a starting caliber 2nd basemen. Still, if the Marlins (Or Yankees/Cubs) could go back and re-do that deal I doubt they would make that offer.

The only way this is a "robbery" by Albies is if he becomes a perennial All-Star/borderline MVP candidate. I would guess he is far more likely to be happy with his contract and regress to league average or worse production.


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#10

Posted: April 11, 2019, 7:11 PM Post
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One of the elements of these contracts that is often lost that we wouldn't have any idea about, is what's going on in a person's life. Imagine you're a 25 year old ballplayer with six younger siblings in the Dominican Republic living with your parents in poverty. Or your mom has colon cancer. The promise of money right now is gonna look pretty good in those conditions.


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#11

Posted: April 11, 2019, 7:12 PM Post
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Or the Braves negotiated a deal with one of their players that was acceptable to both parties.......


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#12

Posted: April 11, 2019, 7:17 PM Post
Posts: 723
MrTPlush said:
Another player signs off on ridiculous number of years for a maximum of $49mil over the next nine years. Only assures himself $35mil for that. Wish we had some players like the Braves seem to have. Literally almost zero risk here for the Braves with more upside than one could imagine. Good for him, but now is under team control past 30 years old. I....wow.

Almost all walks of baseball life in agreement this is possibly the worst deal ever signed by a player...ever.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/deadspin.c ... 979132/amp


I wholeheartedly disagree with the opinion that this deal is awful.

Albies is 22.

He could blow out his knee next week, never play again and walk away with 35 million. Not bad.

He could also stop trying to be good at baseball, get released in two years, and walk away with $35 million. Not bad.

If this deal was offered and Albies turned it down he would essentially be taking a $35 million risk. In my opinion, that would be dumb.


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#13

Posted: April 11, 2019, 7:23 PM Post
Posts: 2558
There is also an important time element when signing something this early he is getting paid much sooner then he would otherwise. It's a less dramatic version of the big contract with large delayed payments.


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#14

Posted: April 11, 2019, 7:57 PM Post
Posts: 2021
igor67 said:
There is also an important time element when signing something this early he is getting paid much sooner then he would otherwise. It's a less dramatic version of the big contract with large delayed payments.


Sound investments and compound interest makes the 30-40 million look better too.


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#15

Posted: April 11, 2019, 8:03 PM Post
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Albies is 22 years old, he was close to a 4-WAR player and was an allstar in his age-21 season. He currently has a little over 1 full year of service time. The moeny for the arbitration years isn't too out of the ordinary, but he's giving up 2 free agent years, with a team option for another two. And those are his age 27-31 years, with the latter two options, so the team isn't taking on much risk at all. And that's where the deal gets odd; the free agent years are extremely cheap. The options even more so.

It's not taking the extension and getting the security and the earlier payday from it that's bad, it's that it's hard to fathom how he couldn't have gotten a lot more. The same amount of money but giving up fewer years, more expensive team options, or straight up more money for the same amount of years, whatever it was he preferred. Look at what Jimenez or Kingery got before even making their MLB debuts. Christian Yelich had a similar amount of service time, plate appearances and WAR when he signed his deal, a deal that would've been a very team-friendly one even if he hadn't had the MVP breakout. That deal was 7 years, $49m. With one team option, at $15m. That's either $14m more over the guaranteed years, or $22m more after 8 years and hitting FA a year sooner. And that deal was signed 4 years ago.

As always in sports, things are relative. Compared to 99.9% of people, he's done extremely well and set himself up for life. Compared to what he's worth to an MLB team, compared to his peers, the deal is awful.


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#16

Posted: April 11, 2019, 8:18 PM Post
Posts: 2352
The braves had issues with the last gm doing dirty deals in Latin America. Not saying this is.These deal are generally taking Latin American ballplayers who have very little money and giving them a lifeline to help their family situation at a discounted price for them. Obviously extensions are a risk reward for the player and the club but this is madness in my opinion. This kid got taken advantage of by a team that had the cards and the know how to do it. A 22 yr old all star for 7 million a year for the next 9 yrs. Ask Keston if he would do this deal today and he laughs in the Brewers face and he hasn't even made it to the show much less become an all star. Incredible.


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#17

Posted: April 11, 2019, 8:20 PM Post
Posts: 2352
The braves had issues with the last gm doing dirty deals in Latin America. Not saying this is.These deal are generally taking Latin American ballplayers who have very little money and giving them a lifeline to help their family situation at a discounted price for them. Obviously extensions are a risk reward for the player and the club but this is madness in my opinion. This kid got taken advantage of by a team that had the cards and the know how to do it. A 22 yr old all star for 7 million a year for the next 9 yrs. Ask Keston if he would do this deal today and he laughs in the Brewers face and he hasn't even made it to the show much less become an all star. Incredible.


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#18

Posted: April 11, 2019, 8:56 PM Post
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Bulldogboy said:
The braves had issues with the last gm doing dirty deals in Latin America. Not saying this is.These deal are generally taking Latin American ballplayers who have very little money and giving them a lifeline to help their family situation at a discounted price for them. Obviously extensions are a risk reward for the player and the club but this is madness in my opinion. This kid got taken advantage of by a team that had the cards and the know how to do it. A 22 yr old all star for 7 million a year for the next 9 yrs. Ask Keston if he would do this deal today and he laughs in the Brewers face and he hasn't even made it to the show much less become an all star. Incredible.


This is on the assumption that he will reach those lofty standards of a perennial All-Star. I already listed 2 examples (Castro, Odor) of deals that either went sour for the team or was neutral at best.

And you are 100% wrong about Hiura. And if you aren't wrong, then Hiura is either a fool or comes from wealth himself. Hiura is far from a can't miss prospect. He's a guy that has ONE can't miss tool (granted, the most important one) that has yet to be demonstrated at the MLB level just like dozens of other prospects over the years. If he comes up and has a year like Albies I'd hope the Brewers make an overture similar to this one, but I wouldn't want to go all Rougned Odor and give him $50Mil unless he demonstrates more than being just that tool (can handle defense at 2B and shows some real power potential or perhaps the ability to adjust to MLB pitching even after pitchers adjust to him)


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#19

Posted: April 11, 2019, 9:05 PM Post
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The Brewers offered Jonathan Villar an extension and he turned it down, and while it wasn't a big extension and he wasn't a top 100 prospect like Albies, it's just one of those things. That guaranteed money is money in the bank.

There is NO guarantee that Albies will even be in the bigs 9 years from now. He's 21 years old. He could flame out, get hurt, etc, etc, etc. He's (and his agent) are banking against any of those things happening. And yes, free agents aren't banking big after the age of 30, but a lot can change from now and then as well.


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#20

Posted: April 11, 2019, 9:25 PM Post
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Right now, Hiura might be able to get the Scott Kingery treatment, but even that is at least 12 months away.


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