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Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves

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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#21

Posted: April 12, 2019, 6:17 AM Post
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Kiley McDaniel served in the Braves front office through the 2017 season. He was critical of the Acuña deal, and here are some of his comments on the Albies deal (Twitter Link):

The new Braves regime walked into a dream situation with Acuna/Albies: two phenoms that got low amateur bonuses, came up/want to stay together, got there fast & both were repped by small agencies. Heavy rumors the agents were nervous they would lose the kids before they got paid.


The quoted Tweet in that link is from Jeff Passan:

It's typical that agents criticize competitors' deals. But I've now heard from executives, players, analytics people, development side and scouts who are saying the same thing: The Ozzie Albies extension might be the worst contract ever for a player. And this is not hyperbole.


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#22

Posted: April 12, 2019, 7:04 AM Post
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I am sure it is nice to get a hefty cut of these extensions if you are the agents...but you must wonder if it is really worth it when you negotiated, what is widely considered, a pretty terrible deal. Actually widely considered the wort deal ever for a player.

I would guess Albies agent approached the Braves and gave up all negotiating power to come to this kind of contract.


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#23

Posted: April 12, 2019, 7:10 AM Post
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I am sure it is nice to get a hefty cut of these extensions if you are the agents...but you must wonder if it is really worth it when you negotiated, what is widely considered, a pretty terrible deal. Actually widely considered the wort deal ever for a player.

John Lucroy's agent says "hold my beer". Luc must of been another one of those situations where the Latin American player is taken advantage of due to the language barrier

In all seriousness, Luc will have earned $6M less over his entire 12 year MLB career than what Albies' $35M extension pays him through his late 20's.

And are we considering this the absolute worst deal ever when our best player and reigning MVP is earning under $10M in his age 27 season? Albies basically guaranteed himself the same total earnings Yelich will make by the time they both reach 30 even if the Braves pick up both of those two extremely team-friendly options, and he got that after playing in the majors for 1 season + a 2017 cup of coffee and didn't have to win a MVP or silver slugger to earn that contract. Albies had a 0.305 OBP last season with an OPS in the mid-700s - he's good, but is he really a 9 figure talent?


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#24

Posted: April 12, 2019, 8:02 AM Post
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You can’t compare him to Lucroy. Lucroy wasn’t anything special before, during, or even shortly after that extension. His potential was meh. Actually I think there is an article out there that questions why WE did that deal....at the time of course.

It is being rated on what he has done so far and partially due to potential. In those regards it seems insultingly low.

Christian Yelich actually isn’t a terrible comp. Actually they had almost identical starts according to WAR...though Albies notable younger start. Yelich got 7/$49.5mil and a club option for $15mil bringing his total to about $65mil over 8 years.

Ozzie Albies on the other hand signed for 7/$35mil with two club options that will only bring that total to 9/$45mil. Mind you he plays a more premium position by a mile.

Scott Kingery got 6/$25mil without taking a single AB let alone a 4 WAR AS season! Not only that, but Kingery has more potential money at 9/$66mil!

This deal sucks and his agent should be partly ashamed. There are quite a few comps out there where guys signed at similar points in their career recently yet he managed to do notably worse than all of them. This deal should be a lot more similar to Yelich’s deal. It is kind of mind boggling this deal can only net him $50mil after 9 years.


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#25

Posted: April 12, 2019, 8:14 AM Post
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I'm trying to think of an elite non-pitching prospect who blew out a knee/elbow whatever and never did anything afterward. I'm coming up blank. Mat Gamel I guess but he wasn't elite by any means. Anyone else?

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#26

Posted: April 12, 2019, 8:21 AM Post
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homer said:
I'm trying to think of an elite non-pitching prospect who blew out a knee/elbow whatever and never did anything afterward. I'm coming up blank. Mat Gamel I guess but he wasn't elite by any means. Anyone else?


I recall Profar getting injured. But he wasn't anything before doing so (proven wise) and not really any assurance he was actually going to hit.


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#27

Posted: April 12, 2019, 8:27 AM Post
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homer said:
I'm trying to think of an elite non-pitching prospect who blew out a knee/elbow whatever and never did anything afterward. I'm coming up blank. Mat Gamel I guess but he wasn't elite by any means. Anyone else?


Perhaps it wasn't 100% injury related, but Ben Grieve comes to mind. He looked like a possible transcendent star early on, but his power almost completely disappeared after he turned 24. Rocco Baldelli is another that comes to mind who was an elite prospect that showed immense promise early in his major league career, but ended up being derailed by injury.


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#28

Posted: April 12, 2019, 8:33 AM Post
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homer said:
I'm trying to think of an elite non-pitching prospect who blew out a knee/elbow whatever and never did anything afterward. I'm coming up blank. Mat Gamel I guess but he wasn't elite by any means. Anyone else?


Doesn't have to be injury that leads to a player bursting onto the scene with seemingly superstar potential to wind up being 'meh' or worse well before they ever reach free agency. Some can still have very long MLB careers but never realize their lofty potential. It's tough to come up with a list because the # of sure things that appear ready to earn a superstar contract is endless, but a vast majority of those players aren't consistent enough due to either injury or just regression to reach that level. here are just a couple examples off the top of my head.

Rickie Weeks (he still did pretty well financially due in large part to the initial extension he signed with the Brewers, but I'd argue those wrist and ankle injuries severely hampered what his career could have been)
Delmon Young (1st overall pick in the same draft as Weeks, out of baseball after 9 years with a total earnings of ~$25M)
Grady Sizemore (nice 10 year career hampered in his prime due to injuries and never truly cashed in - $35M in total earnings)

I actually view Sizemore's initial extension with the Indians (6 yrs, $24M after 1 full MLB season, buying out 2 FA years) as a pretty good comp to Albies. Sizemore's deal initially looked like a steal and was roundly criticized for being too team friendly. Then he dealt with a ton of injuries that basically ended his career as a fulltime player and the contract wound up giving him the financial security he otherwise wouldn't have gotten.

Between Acuna's and Albies' extensions, I'd guess that one of these deals will go down as a sweet deal for the team, and one will go down as a sweet deal for the player.


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#29

Posted: April 12, 2019, 9:12 AM Post
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If MLBTradeRumors agency database is correct, Ozzie Albies agent is Dave Meter. The same individual that is Craig Kimbrel's agent. It's interesting how Meter would hold out Kimbrel and make such demands for a closer, and on the other hand be so willing to sign a deal like this for Albies. I don't know if the "he's going to lose the player" theory has any weight...considering the criticism he's received so far for this deal...that surely won't help his reputation among players. If the Kimbrel situation really sours (doesn't sign this year and the market only determines he's worth something like 3 years, 42 million next off-season), Meter will look really bad.

I thought the Acuna deal would have been pretty reasonable for both sides if not for those last two option years. But when going through arbitration, offense is king. Acuna has been a .930 OPS player so far. Albies had a .305 OBP in his one full season and has been a .774 OPS player so far. Overall he's been really good for a second baseman (offense and defense), and at only 22 there is a strong chance that he will become much, much better, but I wouldn't project him into the probable superstar category that I would with Acuna.

I would project Albies to earn about 33 million in those three arbitration years. So his earnings the next five years would be something like 0.6 + 0.6 + 8 + 11 + 14 = 34.2 million. Giving the team a discount in exchange for security, let's say 70% of his projected earnings, put a reasonable buy figure for those five years at 0.6 + 0.6 + 5.6 + 7.7 + 9.8 = 24.3 million. IMO that would be a fair figure for 2019-2023 seasons. With this deal, Albies will only earn 17 million over this timeframe, less than half of what I would guess his future earning would be, and only 70% of what I figure a fair discounted price would be. Then it gets into the lost free agent years which really makes this a ridiculous deal.

If I were Albies agent I would have had no problem selling the Braves the first year of free agency at what could be a pretty good discount (say 12 million) just to get the client the financial security. But there is no way I would have sold off more than one year of free agency. Arbitration years and pre-arby years at discount = 24.3 million + 12 million free agent year puts it at 6 years, 36.3 million and that's as low as I would have gone. This could turn into a 9 year, 45 million deal which is obviously horrible if Albies turns into a 15+ million AAV player, because as I see it, his agent sold off those 15+ million seasons for a roughly 3 million AAV.


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#30

Posted: April 12, 2019, 9:49 AM Post
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I dislike the criticism of these extensions as somehow ripping off the players:

First of all, they have to want to sign an extension in the first place instead of going year to year. Think Ryan Braun vs. Prince Fielder.

Two, all of these players have agents who have a fiduciary duty to the player to work in the player's best interest. You wouldn't be an agent for very long in professional sports if you had the reputation of looking out for yourself as opposed to being a zealous advocate for their client.

Third, after receiving offers for an extension, the player has the ultimate negotiating tool, the ability to say no.

Finally, for almost all of these extensions I assume it gives the player incredible peace of mind knowing they and their family are financially secure at a young age, and in almost all cases the player will still have another bite at the apple when they do eventually hit free agency.


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#31

Posted: April 12, 2019, 9:58 AM Post
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Jopal78! said:
I dislike the criticism of these extensions as somehow ripping off the players:

First of all, they have to want to sign an extension in the first place instead of going year to year. Think Ryan Braun vs. Prince Fielder.

Two, all of these players have agents who have a fiduciary duty to the player to work in the player's best interest. You wouldn't be an agent for very long in professional sports if you had the reputation of looking out for yourself as opposed to being a zealous advocate for their client.

Third, after receiving offers for an extension, the player has the ultimate negotiating tool, the ability to say no.

Finally, for almost all of these extensions I assume it gives the player incredible peace of mind knowing they and their family are financially secure at a young age, and in almost all cases the player will still have another bite at the apple when they do eventually hit free agency.


For the millionth time and hopefully the last time, I don't care that he took an extension. I think a lot of players should do it. The thing I see here is the fact comparatively speaking this extension sucks compared to what other players have been getting in similar deal in recent history. I don't think the guaranteed money is notably low by about $10mil and I think those option years are a complete joke. This contract should not have a max value of $50mil.

Braves got lucky to have a player that no matter what they offered he was going to say yes. Even with little leverage pretty sad his agent couldn't do better.


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#32

Posted: April 12, 2019, 10:08 AM Post
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Then don't use the term robbed in the subject line.

Nobody was robbed.........There are reasons to do extensions and reasons not to........every situation is different.


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#33

Posted: April 12, 2019, 10:09 AM Post
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markedman5 said:
Then don't use the term robbed in the subject line.

Nobody was robbed.........There are reasons to do extensions and reasons not to........every situation is different.


<mod edit - just removing the first sentence makes your post much less acerbic. This is how things go off the rails. Stop doing that>

Braves definitely took advantage of him though, not saying that is wrong though. They saw a player desperate for money and got him to take a deal well under what other players have gotten. That is what happens when one party has little to no leverage, but wants to get a deal done no matter what.


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#34

Posted: April 12, 2019, 11:31 AM Post
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JosephC said:
It's interesting how Meter would hold out Kimbrel and make such demands for a closer

Kimbrel's agent isn't holding Kimbrel out, Kimbrel is holding Kimbrel out. If Kimbrel wants to sign a deal presented to him, he would direct his agent to accept the deal. Or change agents.


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#35

Posted: April 12, 2019, 11:37 AM Post
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And That said:
JosephC said:
It's interesting how Meter would hold out Kimbrel and make such demands for a closer

Kimbrel's agent isn't holding Kimbrel out, Kimbrel is holding Kimbrel out. If Kimbrel wants to sign a deal presented to him, he would direct his agent to accept the deal. Or change agents.


Completely agree, agents work for the players. It's definitely possible that Kimbrel is listening to bad advice, but at the end of the day it's his decision. Remember when Gomez(Boras client) signed that team friendly extension with the Brewers? This completely defied standard Boras "get to free agency" strategy, so it's virtually certain that Gomez specifically instructed Boras to work on an extension for him. Point being, agents work for the player...the player calls the shots.


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#36

Posted: April 12, 2019, 11:53 AM Post
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I really don't see how the term "robbed" is appropriate. He got guaranteed money, which to him, may be more important than risking it for a possible bump. This contract pretty much sets him for life, and he can still hit the open market for 1 more big deal if he plays well.

Guy like Villar turned down guaranteed money and ended up with far less. Some people like the stability to know it's there and that's his choice.

Oddly, compare Arcia's 2017 with Albies 2018... they are not drastically different in a LOT of categories. Regression can happen, injuries can happen. He obviously wanted the security of guaranteed money... good for him.

Arcia 17 - hit 277/324/407/731 with 14 SB, 100 K
Albies 18- hit 261/305/452/757 with 14 SB, 116 K


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#37

Posted: April 12, 2019, 12:29 PM Post
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MrTPlush said:
For the millionth time and hopefully the last time, I don't care that he took an extension. I think a lot of players should do it. The thing I see here is the fact comparatively speaking this extension sucks compared to what other players have been getting in similar deal in recent history. I don't think the guaranteed money is notably low by about $10mil and I think those option years are a complete joke. This contract should not have a max value of $50mil.

Braves got lucky to have a player that no matter what they offered he was going to say yes. Even with little leverage pretty sad his agent couldn't do better.

Not being condescending - who are the comps that you are using?

2018:
Albies: .261/.305/.452, .757 OPS

Most of the guys who have signed big extensions have much better numbers than that, and have much more established track records than one year in the majors. For a .757 OPS 2B, I don't think his deal is terrible.


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#38

Posted: April 12, 2019, 1:09 PM Post
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Yelich was similar at his extension time OPS wise (as an outfielder) if that is what you want to use. Kingery wasn’t even hitting MLB pitching. Both got more attractive deals in my opinion.


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#39

Posted: April 12, 2019, 1:30 PM Post
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Robbed?!? You gotta be kidding me!


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#40

Posted: April 12, 2019, 2:17 PM Post
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What's clear from many of these early extensions is that there is now a measurable value that can be put on how players value "removing risk" and it's pretty clear it's much higher than many poster think. The market has spoken.

JosephC said:
Stearns probably had no interest in getting a C because the Brewers need a C. It makes much more sense to trade for 3B when it's not needed, and then move the other 3B to 2B, then trade for a 2B, but since the 3B is now at 2B, then the new 2B goes to SS


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