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Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves

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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#41

Posted: April 12, 2019, 2:27 PM Post
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So he's pretty much given up 4 years of FA at 7 mil/per, correct? That's not good. It is hard to fault somebody for taking guaranteed financial freedom however.

It's a lot different to go into free agency as a 27 year old middle infielder vs. a 30 year old middle infielder. Honestly, most likely just the contract locking in the salaries for the arbitration years will be a steal for the team.

There is no risk by the team in this case. If he made no improvement on his numbers or ability, even a current version Albies at age 27 would probably garner $12-$15/ per season for 5-6 years. And we've seen what Machado type numbers would get you.

I mean good for Atlanta and good for Albies right now. It's obviously something he agreed to and knows what he potentially gave up. It's not like he was forced to take the deal. Personally, if I was him and my agent came to me with that deal, I would've fired him. But I suppose that's me now and not as a 22 year old.


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#42

Posted: April 12, 2019, 2:27 PM Post
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Random tinfoil hat-related questions - during a players' strike, do the longterm guaranteed contracts still get paid to players even though there aren't games played? And, are pre-arbitration or arbitration-eligible players still paid if there isn't a season? Do those players accrue service time during a strike despite not having games? Depending on the answers to those questions, it might make quite a bit more sense for current pre-arbitration players to sign onto longterm extensions now, particularly if their initial foray into salary arbitration would line up after the current CBA expires.


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#43

Posted: April 12, 2019, 2:30 PM Post
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Fear The Chorizo said:
Random tinfoil hat-related questions - during a players' strike, do the longterm guaranteed contracts still get paid to players even though there aren't games played? And, are pre-arbitration or arbitration-eligible players still paid if there isn't a season? Do those players accrue service time during a strike despite not having games? Depending on the answers to those questions, it might make quite a bit more sense for current pre-arbitration players to sign onto longterm extensions now, particularly if their initial foray into salary arbitration would line up after the current CBA expires.

No, No, No.

JosephC said:
Stearns probably had no interest in getting a C because the Brewers need a C. It makes much more sense to trade for 3B when it's not needed, and then move the other 3B to 2B, then trade for a 2B, but since the 3B is now at 2B, then the new 2B goes to SS


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#44

Posted: April 12, 2019, 4:14 PM Post
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This is the Braves we are talking about, there is a decent chance they already gave him millions under the table when he was younger and they just didn't happen to get caught with this one.


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#45

Posted: April 12, 2019, 4:17 PM Post
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MrTPlush said:
markedman5 said:
Then don't use the term robbed in the subject line.

Nobody was robbed.........There are reasons to do extensions and reasons not to........every situation is different.


<mod edit - just removing the first sentence makes your post much less acerbic. This is how things go off the rails. Stop doing that>

Braves definitely took advantage of him though, not saying that is wrong though. They saw a player desperate for money and got him to take a deal well under what other players have gotten. That is what happens when one party has little to no leverage, but wants to get a deal done no matter what.


How do you know Albies was desperate for money? He made over half a million dollars last year and is scheduled to make more this year. Pretty darn good for a guy from Curacao. Albies had ALL the leverage. He could say NO and wait for a huge pay day. However he could also get hurt and suddenly become a liability. He set himself up for life with the contract. Plus he'll earn a lot more after this contract expires. Not bad for a kid from a small island country.


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Online  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#46

Posted: April 12, 2019, 4:26 PM Post
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Ennder said:
This is the Braves we are talking about, there is a decent chance they already gave him millions under the table when he was younger and they just didn't happen to get caught with this one.


This is kinda the elephant in the room. It's gotta be pretty much impossible to enforce something like this. We have trouble enough enforcing actually important things like drug smuggling and immigration--and giving a little extra help to some Latin American teenagers and their families is supposed to be a bad thing? And then we are supposed to be outraged if that teenager happens to reward that type of "help" with a loyalty signing like this? Color me shrugged.


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#47

Posted: April 12, 2019, 5:53 PM Post
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MrTPlush said:

Braves got lucky to have a player that no matter what they offered he was going to say yes.


Ummmmm, really?

C'mon, that is just not true.


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#48

Posted: April 12, 2019, 6:40 PM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
And That said:
JosephC said:
It's interesting how Meter would hold out Kimbrel and make such demands for a closer

Kimbrel's agent isn't holding Kimbrel out, Kimbrel is holding Kimbrel out. If Kimbrel wants to sign a deal presented to him, he would direct his agent to accept the deal. Or change agents.


Yes, you are correct. That was a poor choice of words on my part. Especially with Kimbrel, who is a veteran that's been around the game a long time, has played for different teams, has seen many teammates come and go. Albies is still a very young guy that hasn't been around MLB clubhouses that long and probably relied heavily on his agent. If Kimbrel gets burned by his current situation, he really has no one to blame but himself. He should know how the business works.


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Online  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#49

Posted: April 12, 2019, 7:43 PM Post
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JosephC said:
And That said:
JosephC said:
It's interesting how Meter would hold out Kimbrel and make such demands for a closer

Kimbrel's agent isn't holding Kimbrel out, Kimbrel is holding Kimbrel out. If Kimbrel wants to sign a deal presented to him, he would direct his agent to accept the deal. Or change agents.


Yes, you are correct. That was a poor choice of words on my part. Especially with Kimbrel, who is a veteran that's been around the game a long time, has played for different teams, has seen many teammates come and go. Albies is still a very young guy that hasn't been around MLB clubhouses that long and probably relied heavily on his agent. If Kimbrel gets burned by his current situation, he really has no one to blame but himself. He should know how the business works.


And maybe Kimbrel has had a somewhat miserable time of it constantly moving around all the time chasing the highest paycheck all over the country--thus refusing to sign a one year deal. He wants to settle down for 5 or 6 years and end his career in one place. Nobody has been willing to commit to a reliever for that long. His agent sees this and Albies sees this and is like "I want to stay in Atlanta for the rest of my career--Meter, make that happen"

For him perhaps the difference between 35 million and 100 million is just negligible monopoly money--the way the difference between 100 million and 300 million would be fairly negligible monopoly money to me. That may or may not be the case for him 10 years from now, but that might be how it seems right now.

Speculation is fun.


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#50

Posted: April 13, 2019, 12:10 AM Post
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homer said:
I'm trying to think of an elite non-pitching prospect who blew out a knee/elbow whatever and never did anything afterward. I'm coming up blank. Mat Gamel I guess but he wasn't elite by any means. Anyone else?



I can't think of one. Rocco Baldelli is the closest example I can think of when it comes to a "can't miss" type of elite talent that didn't really pan out. Still, he had two very good years at 21 and 22, got hurt and missed his age 23 season blowing out his knee, but came back to put up another 3.0 WAR season, but then developed a rare disease that ruined his career and he still fought his way back to come up with a couple of huge hits in the ALDS vs the Red Sox, including the game winning hit.

But if he doesn't suffer that illness, it's a different story.


I don't like this deal and I'm kinda shocked people are defending it so strongly. We're talking about a 22 year old kid, and the struggles these kids have coming to a new country is well documented. Comparing this to the Ryan Braun signing an extension(for a MUCH-MUCH better deal) as opposed to Prince not signing and instead opting for free agency is a little disingenuous. One is the son of a former big leaguer who was very familiar with how the business side of the game worked, and the other was from an upper middle class family in Southern California. Not quite the same as some kid here on his own(and yes, I do consider a 22 year old a kid) from Latin America.

I think he got taken advantage of. There's no question that he signed the deal, that both sides agreed...but I think he got taken advantage of.

This is a terrible deal BEFORE you get to the two option years the Braves have. When you throw those in, you can see why so many people are talking about this being one of the worst deals ever. I really hope ridiculous deals like this don't lead to a significant change in service time or compensation for players before they get to free agency.

This is a 22 year old kid who was an elite prospect, has a 4 WAR season under his belt, has great power, speed, defense, a good arm and a great hit tool at a premium position. You can always come up with a worse case scenario to justify arguing that his was a reasonable deal for both sides, but it's just kinda insane to me.

This deal is as bad for the player as the Chris Davis deal is for the team(Baltimore).


Just one last note, to those who are arguing that he ran the risk of walking away with nothing if he had a devastating injury..one that he couldn't come back from...whatever that might be for a guy with all his tools, if he was with a decent agency, I'm sure he had an insurance policy that would pay out ~10 million dollars if he had such an injury and then never played again. This is just horrible. This is like a David Bote type deal for a Machado like talent(that part may be hyperbole, but he's a big time talent).


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#51

Posted: April 13, 2019, 7:08 AM Post
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turborickey said:
MrTPlush said:

Braves got lucky to have a player that no matter what they offered he was going to say yes.


Ummmmm, really?

C'mon, that is just not true.


How so? This deal is absolutely horrendous and clearly way under the market value for this type of a deal. There are multiple players to do better. The ceiling salary for 9 years is absolutely terrible.


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#52

Posted: April 13, 2019, 8:18 AM Post
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MrTPlush said:
turborickey said:
MrTPlush said:

Braves got lucky to have a player that no matter what they offered he was going to say yes.


Ummmmm, really?

C'mon, that is just not true.


How so? This deal is absolutely horrendous and clearly way under the market value for this type of a deal. There are multiple players to do better. The ceiling salary for 9 years is absolutely terrible.


How so?

You said he'd take any deal they offered, that is just ridiculous.


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#53

Posted: April 13, 2019, 8:38 AM Post
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I can't think of one. Rocco Baldelli is the closest example I can think of when it comes to a "can't miss" type of elite talent that didn't really pan out. Still, he had two very good years at 21 and 22, got hurt and missed his age 23 season blowing out his knee, but came back to put up another 3.0 WAR season, but then developed a rare disease that ruined his career and he still fought his way back to come up with a couple of huge hits in the ALDS vs the Red Sox, including the game winning hit.


Grady Sizemore comes to mind as well - particularly since he burst onto the scene, was expected to be one of the best at his position for a decade, signed an extension that was widely panned as being too team friendly after ~1 MLB season, then suffered a myriad of injuries during what would have been his arbitration years that led to him being a shell of what he was projected to become. I'd argue Orlando Arcia is actually another fair comparison. Always viewed as a plus defender at a premium position, Arcia's 2017 offensive statline during his 1st full big league stint was pretty impressive and quite comparable to Albies' 2018 line minus the power numbers. Arcia put up a 2.5 WAR season as a 22 yr old, and was once considered one of the top 15 prospects in all of baseball, too. Fast forward to present - while still a great defender, I think even the most optimistic of us don't see Orlando becoming a perennial all star anymore.

The list of "can't-misses" that never truly realized their potential is really long, for many reasons. It's difficult to come up with, because at one point or another, just about every top 50 MLB prospect that makes it to the majors flashes their talent for long enough a period for people to notice and start projecting just how good they might be if everything goes right. Then baseball inevitably finds a way to to turn 95% of those silver slugger/Cy Young/HOF-potential careers into a mix of good-not-great, meh, and disappointing careers. Albies appears to have all the talent to realize his potential of being one of the best 2B in the game, but let's see how he develops over the next 5 seasons to know whether this contract is the joke for him that it appears to be right now - alot can happen to make the deal overall look well served for both player/team or even make it look player friendly.


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#54

Posted: April 13, 2019, 10:02 AM Post
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homer said:
I'm trying to think of an elite non-pitching prospect who blew out a knee/elbow whatever and never did anything afterward. I'm coming up blank. Mat Gamel I guess but he wasn't elite by any means. Anyone else?

Not sure if you were asking a general question, because I can't see where Albies is considered an elite prospect.

Injury is one concern, but long-term success is another... Look no further than Jonathan Villar. The Brewers offered him an extension after his 1 very good year and he turned it down (he took the "guaranteed" huge salaries moving forward). How did that turn out for him? What if the Brewers signed Pat Listach to an extension after his rookie year... The dataset to look at is players who didn't match their initial performance either due to injury or they just were never good after 1+ early years and who did and did not sign extensions. Looking only at players with injuries and who signed a contract extension is only looking at a subset of the data.

There's plenty of RISK for the team to offer these deals so early in a career and there's plenty of RISK averted by players when signing these. To ignore RISK is just foolish, but hey I can see the tendency to ignore it since there's always a resency bias and there hasn't been real risk in the USA for a generation like there was years ago with extended stock market/salary stagnation (like the inflationary 70's) or stagnant and devastating job losses like the 80's when heavy manufacturing disappeared from most of the "steel belt"... I can understand that many don't perceive risk, but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

JosephC said:
Stearns probably had no interest in getting a C because the Brewers need a C. It makes much more sense to trade for 3B when it's not needed, and then move the other 3B to 2B, then trade for a 2B, but since the 3B is now at 2B, then the new 2B goes to SS


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#55

Posted: April 13, 2019, 10:35 AM Post
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This deal is like $4.5mil, on average, yearly. This is zero risk for the Braves.

He could morph into a pumpkin tomorrow and I don’t think a tear would ever get shed. Total non issue kind of commitment.


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#56

Posted: April 13, 2019, 2:48 PM Post
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I fully agree with the comment that there’s just too low of a possible ceiling. Maybe some decent sized incentives would’ve made it more acceptable to others. I still think if he wanted security, wanted to stay in Atl, this isn’t horrible TO HIM, and his opinion is really all that matters. I really think it’s 50/50 on who comes out as the “winner” in the deal when it’s all said and done.


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Online  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#57

Posted: April 13, 2019, 4:32 PM Post
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This might also be the kind of deal where if the guy turns out to be an absolute stud 5 years from now-- the Braves might tear up the contract and give him an 8 year extension or so from that point on, just as a good faith PR move for everybody.


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#58

Posted: April 13, 2019, 8:34 PM Post
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Brett Lawrie was derailed by injuries. This would have looked like an awful deal for him but been a bad one for the Blue Jays if they had signed it.


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#59

Posted: April 13, 2019, 8:39 PM Post
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He willingly signed the contract. This is far from robbery, no matter how you paint it.


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Offline  Re: Ozzie Albies Robbed by the Braves
#60

Posted: April 13, 2019, 9:45 PM Post
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He decided to get a sure thing now...

Plus, with a long-term future in Atlanta, he can line up endorsements - at least in the local market. That will help him out as well.


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