LambeauLeap1250 WSSP


  
Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5  Next  [ 98 posts ]  New Topic   Add Reply

Arcia - Glove vs Bat

Author Message
Offline  Re: Arcia - Glove vs Bat
#21

Posted: April 17, 2019, 11:08 AM Post
Posts: 11117
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Another "Wizard" of a SS put up a career OPS of .666 in his 19 year career, with a high-water mark of .775. While he was known for his defensive prowess, his offense also played up in big spots. Despite his defensive wizardry, he had years where he had 25, 24 and 22 errors. Sometimes excellent range will lead to more errors, simply because that player has more chances. The guy I'm speaking of is now a Hall of Famer and universally known as one of the best shortstops of all time.

Don't try to tell me that defensive excellence isn't valuable.


I guess that could be a good comp if Arcia suddenly becomes Billy Hamilton with the legs and gets on base...but I doubt that. I don't get what you are trying to prove, really. Ozzie Smith was already close to HOF status without his defense by WAR standards (50 WAR and a HOFer is usually about 60ish). Ozzie didn't have power, but he knew how to get on base and use his legs. Orlando Arcia is neither and that is why he is a negative offensive player. Ozzie Smith, as crazy as it is, was almost HOF worthy without his defense (50 OWAR).

You are trying to claim Ozzie as comparable because of OPS...which seems way off the mark. I can't even come up with another example of a 0 WAR player offensively starting year after year just due to defense. Hamilton would be somewhat the same. He may be the only other guy starting despite being a 0 WAR guy. And really all he did was get a 5mil salary for one year from a terrible team...probably bringing him in hoping to catch lightning in a bottle and have an exciting player to watch. Not for real value purposes.

I am not saying his defense isn't valuable, it is, especially considering the rest of the infield...but hardly some great player. Just a guy that is there...filling a hole, but darn close to being a black hole when his offense falls off a cliff. If he is hitting .675 or above I don't really care. If he starts getting above .700 that is a solid SS for us. Hopefully he can be more consistent.


Last edited by MrTPlush on April 17, 2019, 11:11 AM, edited 1 time in total.

 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Arcia - Glove vs Bat
#22

Posted: April 17, 2019, 11:09 AM Post
Posts: 4843
Location: New Berlin, WI
Arcia's atbats this year have been so much better than last year, I think his numbers will continue to trend up.

He doesn't swing at the slider away nearly as much, or at least hasn't to this point. That's really what ruined his season last year, completely unable to recognize/handle that pitch. Word got out, and it was sliders for days. He seems to be looking to go to the opposite field most of the time, so even if he does encounter a slider just off the plate...he's still able to get to it and poke it to RF. I'm a bit surprised more teams aren't trying to pitch him inside considering his approach lately. Hard to send an inside fastball to RF.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Arcia - Glove vs Bat
#23

Posted: April 17, 2019, 11:27 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 5998
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
that Ozzie made his debut with the Padres as a 23-year-old. Arcia is 24. There's plenty of room for growth.


For sure but I don't think that applies to defense as much.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Arcia - Glove vs Bat
#24

Posted: April 17, 2019, 11:42 AM Post
Posts: 713
He's fine for our current roster. In the upcoming years I think we should stay open to any bargains at SS and potentially replace him 2020 or 2021 depending on his stock and FA/MiLB options.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Arcia - Glove vs Bat
#25

Posted: April 17, 2019, 11:45 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 5998
MrTPlush said:
Ozzie Smith, as crazy as it is, was almost HOF worthy without his defense (50 OWAR).



Remember bWAR includes the positional adjustment in oWAR and dWAR, which I really hate. Without it, he was 117 runs below average hitting, 79 above average base running and +23 for avoiding DPs. That is -15 runs from average for his career on offense, and his career replacement level runs were 348 below average, so he was 333 runs above replacement. His career runs to WAR constant is 734/76.9 = 9.54, so just on offense, independent of his position, Ozzie put up 35 WAR.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Online  Re: Arcia - Glove vs Bat
#26

Posted: April 17, 2019, 11:49 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 7996
MrTPlush said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Another "Wizard" of a SS put up a career OPS of .666 in his 19 year career, with a high-water mark of .775. While he was known for his defensive prowess, his offense also played up in big spots. Despite his defensive wizardry, he had years where he had 25, 24 and 22 errors. Sometimes excellent range will lead to more errors, simply because that player has more chances. The guy I'm speaking of is now a Hall of Famer and universally known as one of the best shortstops of all time.

Don't try to tell me that defensive excellence isn't valuable.


I guess that could be a good comp if Arcia suddenly becomes Billy Hamilton with the legs and gets on base...but I doubt that. I don't get what you are trying to prove, really. Ozzie Smith was already close to HOF status without his defense by WAR standards (50 WAR and a HOFer is usually about 60ish). Ozzie didn't have power, but he knew how to get on base and use his legs. Orlando Arcia is neither and that is why he is a negative offensive player. Ozzie Smith, as crazy as it is, was almost HOF worthy without his defense (50 OWAR).

You are trying to claim Ozzie as comparable because of OPS...which seems way off the mark. I can't even come up with another example of a 0 WAR player offensively starting year after year just due to defense. Hamilton would be somewhat the same. He may be the only other guy starting despite being a 0 WAR guy. And really all he did was get a 5mil salary for one year from a terrible team...probably bringing him in hoping to catch lightning in a bottle and have an exciting player to watch. Not for real value purposes.

I am not saying his defense isn't valuable, it is, especially considering the rest of the infield...but hardly some great player. Just a guy that is there...filling a hole, but darn close to being a black hole when his offense falls off a cliff. If he is hitting .675 or above I don't really care. If he starts getting above .700 that is a solid SS for us. Hopefully he can be more consistent.


When I read this, it appears that you think that Arcia is a finished product. You also seem to believe that 0 WAR is Orlando's future, while looking past the 2.5 WAR he posted as a 22-year-old in 2017. My argument is that, at 24 years old, there is room for growth. Ozzie didn't hit his stride as a consistent 5+ WAR player until his age 27 season. He also played in an era where station-to-station baseball and stolen bases were much, much more prevalent. I think it's probably short-sighted to believe that, at 24 years old, the current version of Arcia is al he ever will be.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Arcia - Glove vs Bat
#27

Posted: April 17, 2019, 11:53 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 2127
KeithStone53151 said:
Arcia's atbats this year have been so much better than last year, I think his numbers will continue to trend up.

He doesn't swing at the slider away nearly as much, or at least hasn't to this point. That's really what ruined his season last year, completely unable to recognize/handle that pitch. Word got out, and it was sliders for days. He seems to be looking to go to the opposite field most of the time, so even if he does encounter a slider just off the plate...he's still able to get to it and poke it to RF. I'm a bit surprised more teams aren't trying to pitch him inside considering his approach lately. Hard to send an inside fastball to RF.

Year    Pull    Center   Opp
2018 32.7 % 44.9 % 22.4 %
2019 47.6 % 33.3 % 19.0 %

JosephC said:
Stearns probably had no interest in getting a C because the Brewers need a C. It makes much more sense to trade for 3B when it's not needed, and then move the other 3B to 2B, then trade for a 2B, but since the 3B is now at 2B, then the new 2B goes to SS


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Arcia - Glove vs Bat
#28

Posted: April 17, 2019, 11:55 AM Post
Posts: 11117
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
When I read this, it appears that you think that Arcia is a finished product. You also seem to believe that 0 WAR is Orlando's future, while looking past the 2.5 WAR he posted as a 22-year-old in 2017. My argument is that, at 24 years old, there is room for growth. Ozzie didn't hit his stride as a consistent 5+ WAR player until his age 27 season. He also played in an era where station-to-station baseball and stolen bases were much, much more prevalent. I think it's probably short-sighted to believe that, at 24 years old, the current version of Arcia is al he ever will be.


I don't think he is either...but I don't know if that is just stating the obvious or if that is even a compliment. Not convinced we will see a massive improvement while he is still here...but I am sure he will get better not worse going forward. Which isn't saying much when you OPS .550 and try to hit below .200.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Online  Re: Arcia - Glove vs Bat
#29

Posted: April 17, 2019, 11:56 AM Post
Posts: 4383
Location: Madison, WI
xisxisxis said:
KeithStone53151 said:
Arcia's atbats this year have been so much better than last year, I think his numbers will continue to trend up.

He doesn't swing at the slider away nearly as much, or at least hasn't to this point. That's really what ruined his season last year, completely unable to recognize/handle that pitch. Word got out, and it was sliders for days. He seems to be looking to go to the opposite field most of the time, so even if he does encounter a slider just off the plate...he's still able to get to it and poke it to RF. I'm a bit surprised more teams aren't trying to pitch him inside considering his approach lately. Hard to send an inside fastball to RF.

Year    Pull    Center   Opp
2018 32.7 % 44.9 % 22.4 %
2019 47.6 % 33.3 % 19.0 %


Could you easily pull first half last year vs second half? Obviously he was a different player at the end. If it's a lot of work don't bother. Thanks


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Arcia - Glove vs Bat
#30

Posted: April 17, 2019, 11:59 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 8342
This is Orlando's 4th MLB season. I really don't think his age matters much more at this point. Ya, I'll say there's a chance he makes some changes and maybe becomes a serviceable hitter to go with great defense but I personally doubt it. If he hasn't yet, what will it take for him to finally make some changes?

As for a 0 WAR player consistently playing because of his defense, Alcides Escobar is close. Outside of a year here and there he's consistently been about .5 WAR and still played almost every single day for years. He does have an OPS over .900 in AAA right now, so maybe he's figured it out at age 32.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Arcia - Glove vs Bat
#31

Posted: April 17, 2019, 12:01 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 2127
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
When I read this, it appears that you think that Arcia is a finished product. You also seem to believe that 0 WAR is Orlando's future, while looking past the 2.5 WAR he posted as a 22-year-old in 2017. My argument is that, at 24 years old, there is room for growth. Ozzie didn't hit his stride as a consistent 5+ WAR player until his age 27 season. He also played in an era where station-to-station baseball and stolen bases were much, much more prevalent. I think it's probably short-sighted to believe that, at 24 years old, the current version of Arcia is al he ever will be.

That's your hypothesis. There's plenty of data that players don't get it even with much more time and there's plenty of data that players can get it and improve. As Jericho pointed out, he basically is the same crappy hitter he's been his entire life (his minor league numbers are pretty abysmal), so the likelihood that he puts it together is far outweighed by a consistency of crapitude. Sure there's an infinitesimally small chance he could improve... you've won me over on that... the over/under is pretty small and when FVBrewerfan starts that war, Arcia is perfect cannon fodder or a human shield...

JosephC said:
Stearns probably had no interest in getting a C because the Brewers need a C. It makes much more sense to trade for 3B when it's not needed, and then move the other 3B to 2B, then trade for a 2B, but since the 3B is now at 2B, then the new 2B goes to SS


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Arcia - Glove vs Bat
#32

Posted: April 17, 2019, 12:03 PM Post
Posts: 11117
jerichoholicninja said:
This is Orlando's 4th MLB season. I really don't think his age matters much more at this point. Ya, I'll say there's a chance he makes some changes and maybe becomes a serviceable hitter to go with great defense but I personally doubt it. If he hasn't yet, what will it take for him to finally make some changes?

As for a 0 WAR player consistently playing because of his defense, Alcides Escobar is close. Outside of a year here and there he's consistently been about .5 WAR and still played almost every single day for years. He does have an OPS over .900 in AAA right now, so maybe he's figured it out at age 32.


How could I forget him...yah he is the modern day golden example. Escobar probably should have been toast at the MLB level before 30, but the Royals gave him that strange contract that made little sense...which was likely a thank you for being ALCS MVP and to keep someone from that 2015 team after they start purging off the other guys.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Arcia - Glove vs Bat
#33

Posted: April 17, 2019, 12:07 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 2127
tmwiese55 said:
xisxisxis said:
KeithStone53151 said:
Arcia's atbats this year have been so much better than last year, I think his numbers will continue to trend up.

He doesn't swing at the slider away nearly as much, or at least hasn't to this point. That's really what ruined his season last year, completely unable to recognize/handle that pitch. Word got out, and it was sliders for days. He seems to be looking to go to the opposite field most of the time, so even if he does encounter a slider just off the plate...he's still able to get to it and poke it to RF. I'm a bit surprised more teams aren't trying to pitch him inside considering his approach lately. Hard to send an inside fastball to RF.

Year    Pull    Center   Opp
2018 32.7 % 44.9 % 22.4 %
2019 47.6 % 33.3 % 19.0 %


Could you easily pull first half last year vs second half? Obviously he was a different player at the end. If it's a lot of work don't bother. Thanks

Month    Pull    Center   Opp
9/2018 41.7% 43.3% 15.0%

JosephC said:
Stearns probably had no interest in getting a C because the Brewers need a C. It makes much more sense to trade for 3B when it's not needed, and then move the other 3B to 2B, then trade for a 2B, but since the 3B is now at 2B, then the new 2B goes to SS


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Arcia - Glove vs Bat
#34

Posted: April 17, 2019, 12:31 PM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 2427
Arcia makes plays on defense that are nothing short of spectacular. And he has occasional hot streaks at the plate. But the sum of his career to this point is that he's at the bottom of MLB in WAR by most measures. His unproductive bat was a factor in the Brewers being shutout so often last year.

With all the strikeouts in baseball, there are fewer and fewer chances that will make it to defenders, so Arcia's numbers won't compare to elite defenders of the past. But I think his glove is on par with the upper tier of those shortstops. I just don't think they can carry such an out maker over the long haul.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Arcia - Glove vs Bat
#35

Posted: April 17, 2019, 12:34 PM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 2380
I posted a version of this in a game thread earlier this year, tl/dr version = Arcia is young & has seen wild variance in his performance & it's probably still too early to say definitively that the hitter he has been in aggregate for his career is the hitter he will be moving forward...

2016: Arcia "called up to soon" at 21. Hits 219/273/358 over 216 PA for a 66 OPS+.

2017: Full time starter at SS hits 277/324/407 for an 89 OPS+. League average for SS was 264/319/419. Best month was June at 326/370/478 in 100 PA.

2018: Terrible over first 212 PAs at 197/231/251. Demoted. Hits 290/320/386 in 154 PA upon his return then 333/353/606 in 34 postseason PAs.

So yes, in aggregate, he's been bad for his career & hasn't looked all that much better to start the season & has often looked completely lost, but there have also been stretches of varying lengths where he has performed adequately or even better & shown flashes of the tools he posseses that just need to be unlocked more consistently.

2019 forward: I'd say there's about a 55% percent chance he hits below league average for a SS, 30% chance he hits between league average for a SS & a 100-110 OPS+ which leaves about a 15% chance he hits for above a 110 OPS+...which would be pretty cool.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Arcia - Glove vs Bat
#36

Posted: April 17, 2019, 1:50 PM Post
Posts: 61
What is interesting is a lot of elite defenders with those fast twitch muscles develop as good hitters over time. A couple that come to mind is andrelton simmons, arenado, Yadier molina, and Baez. That is a wide batch, but I remember all those elite defenders starting off slowly with the bat and progressing slowly with Arenado being the clear best of the bunch. A lot of the raw talent that helps someone defensively are needed for offense.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Arcia - Glove vs Bat
#37

Posted: April 17, 2019, 2:56 PM Post
Posts: 7938
What is disappointing is that Arcia showed good BB skills relative to k’s. Yet in MLB he is a very free swinger. I don’t get his open stance. Normally an open stance allowed a hitter to ensure their hip is squared up at impact. However, he’s open and still flies even more open during his swing.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Arcia - Glove vs Bat
#38

Posted: April 18, 2019, 7:27 AM Post
Posts: 10281
Still awaiting evidence of Arcia's other-worldly defensive ability.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Arcia - Glove vs Bat
#39

Posted: April 18, 2019, 7:34 AM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 2427
endaround said:
Still awaiting evidence of Arcia's other-worldly defensive ability.


Watch him play and you'll see spectacular athleticism. He covers a lot of ground and has a strong arm.

Is it enough to make up for his weak bat? Often, no. But he does make contributions on defense.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Online  Re: Arcia - Glove vs Bat
#40

Posted: April 18, 2019, 8:02 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 7996
endaround said:
Still awaiting evidence of Arcia's other-worldly defensive ability.


Yeah, if you are watching Arcia play and not seeing an extreme top-end defender, I'm not sure what you are looking at. He regularly makes difficult plays look routine. He's the total package of what you'd look for in a defender at SS. Soft hands, gun for an arm and terrific instincts. I always thought Jean Segura was a solid defensive SS, and Arcia puts him to shame. Once they inserted Arcia as the regular SS as a 21 year old over Villar in 2016, the difference was night and day.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5  Next  [ 98 posts ]  New Topic   Add Reply
  


Who is online


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search this forum (phpBB search):
Jump to:  
Search entire board (Google search):
Google
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group
Test