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When Will Keston Hiura Arrive In Milwaukee?

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Offline  Re: When Will Keston Hiura Arrive In Milwaukee?
Posted: May 12, 2019, 11:02 AM Post
Posts: 1034
Eye Black said:
Austin Tatious said:
When does he get past the Super Two cutoff? Has anybody calculated that?

There is no way to know for sure, it depends where the cutoff is going to be set when calculated in a few years. The goal would be that at the end of 2021 his total number of service days would be outside of the top 22% of players with between two and three seasons of MLB service. Below are the past cutoffs for number of service years and days...

2018: 2.134
2017: 2.123
2016: 2.131
2015: 2.130
2014: 2.133
2013: 2.122
2012: 2.140
2011: 2.146
2010: 2.122
2009: 2.139

On June 1st there will be a 121 service days remaining in 2019. That would be lower than any number in the past decade, and likely safe from the Super Two cutoff. Tuesday, May 21st would be 132 service days remaining which is very close to the typical cutoff. This coming Monday would be 140 service days remaining and would very likely be on the wrong side of the Super Two cutoff.



Thank you for the time. I appreciate it. I wonder if it was this complicated when we brought Braun up.


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Online  Re: When Will Keston Hiura Arrive In Milwaukee?
Posted: May 12, 2019, 1:03 PM Post
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If Hiura is ready, and you think he can win games, then bring him up. If you think he's ready to help the team win games, then bring him up. Don't bring him up for one series and send him back down. If he comes up for one series and goes 1 for 12 or he goes 5 for 12 with a homer, leave him up here, if that's the decision that is made. Don't send him back down after 3 games, because that sample isn't enough to have learned anything.

If you think he can help you win games, if you bring him up, bring him up to stay, unless he looks clearly and obviously overmatched.


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Offline  Re: When Will Keston Hiura Arrive In Milwaukee?
Posted: May 12, 2019, 5:40 PM Post
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Here’s my question: if the collective bargaining agreement will be (likely) changed in a couple seasons (with or without a lockout/strike), then why not just call him up? His super two status or three vs. four years of arbitration could be history in just two years and it won’t even matter that we held him back. Instead, perhaps, we’re losing out on Huira helping out the ballclub right NOW.

That said, I trust the Brewers brass and believe they’ll do what is best for the club. I just wonder if they’ve thought of that (they probably have [insert google eyes emoji here]

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Offline  Re: When Will Keston Hiura Arrive In Milwaukee?
Posted: May 12, 2019, 6:49 PM Post
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Eye Black said:
To this point the only top position prospect called up during Stearns’ tenure is Orlando Arcia, and it is hard to glean much from that example. They called Arcia up in early August of 2016 and then kept him up the entire next season. It wasn’t until his performance dictated being sent down last season that he was shuttled to the minors. Certainly a different set of circumstances in many respects.

One thing I somehow neglected was the fact Lewis Brinson was obviously called up in the Stearns era as well. He was called up on June 11th in 2017.

For now I am sticking with my June 4th prediction for Hiura’s first major league game.


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Offline  Re: When Will Keston Hiura Arrive In Milwaukee?
Posted: May 13, 2019, 2:48 AM Post
Posts: 352
pitchleague said:
Here’s my question: if the collective bargaining agreement will be (likely) changed in a couple seasons (with or without a lockout/strike), then why not just call him up? His super two status or three vs. four years of arbitration could be history in just two years and it won’t even matter that we held him back. Instead, perhaps, we’re losing out on Huira helping out the ballclub right NOW.

That said, I trust the Brewers brass and believe they’ll do what is best for the club. I just wonder if they’ve thought of that (they probably have [insert google eyes emoji here]


I think the dilemma with calling him up has more to do with who gets cut, than Hiura's super 2 status. Shaw can be sent down, and right now he would be the obvious choice. But how will he take the demotion after what he has done for the club the last two years? With Moustakas on a 1 year contract, does Stearns risk alienating a guy the Crew will desperately need in the near future? Perez is too valuable to depart. Gamel too with all of Braun's never ending injuries. Pina is the backup catcher. Without a closer and any defined roles in the pen, CC likes having the security of 13 pitchers. That leaves Thames and Aguilar. Neither one can be sent down w/o losing them to another team. It's a tough choice for Stearns.


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Offline  Re: When Will Keston Hiura Arrive In Milwaukee?
Posted: May 13, 2019, 5:44 AM Post
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True Blue Brew Crew said:
The added caveat being avoiding Super 2 if this is a player you project wanting to control for an extra year.

As others have mentioned, the Super Two cutoff has no bearing on his years of control, but does delay his eligibility for arbitration by a year (the difference is 4 years of arbitration versus 3 years of arbitration). That obviously matters most if he turns into a star and would be in line for a much larger raise prior to the 2022 season if he was arbitration eligible.

At this point the Brewers will have Hiura under contract through the 2025 season regardless of when he is called up. That would be his age 28 season.

The only way the Brewers could ensure an additional year of control at this point would be to wait until mid-April of 2020 for him to make his debut. The cut-off for a player to gain a complete year of services is 172 days even though there are 187 in the MLB calendar from start to finish. That is why players like Vlad Jr. didn’t come up until late April. Making sure he was under the 172 services days for 2019 basically gave the team a 7th year of control, but he will be eligible for arbitration a year earlier than if the Blue Jays had waited until June to call him up.


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Offline  Re: When Will Keston Hiura Arrive In Milwaukee?
Posted: May 13, 2019, 10:47 AM Post
Posts: 1920
Anyone know how Hirua stats compare to Rickiw Weeks in the minors? I know Rickie was a stud and probably the closest comp we've seen in a while.


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Offline  Re: When Will Keston Hiura Arrive In Milwaukee?
Posted: May 13, 2019, 11:01 AM Post
Posts: 1995
wntrtxn21 said:
pitchleague said:
Here’s my question: if the collective bargaining agreement will be (likely) changed in a couple seasons (with or without a lockout/strike), then why not just call him up? His super two status or three vs. four years of arbitration could be history in just two years and it won’t even matter that we held him back. Instead, perhaps, we’re losing out on Huira helping out the ballclub right NOW.

That said, I trust the Brewers brass and believe they’ll do what is best for the club. I just wonder if they’ve thought of that (they probably have [insert google eyes emoji here]


I think the dilemma with calling him up has more to do with who gets cut, than Hiura's super 2 status. Shaw can be sent down, and right now he would be the obvious choice. But how will he take the demotion after what he has done for the club the last two years? With Moustakas on a 1 year contract, does Stearns risk alienating a guy the Crew will desperately need in the near future? Perez is too valuable to depart. Gamel too with all of Braun's never ending injuries. Pina is the backup catcher. Without a closer and any defined roles in the pen, CC likes having the security of 13 pitchers. That leaves Thames and Aguilar. Neither one can be sent down w/o losing them to another team. It's a tough choice for Stearns.


Ding Ding Winner or Ditto [wink]


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Offline  Re: When Will Keston Hiura Arrive In Milwaukee?
Posted: May 13, 2019, 11:36 AM Post
Posts: 1086
Bulldogboy said:
Anyone know how Hirua stats compare to Rickiw Weeks in the minors? I know Rickie was a stud and probably the closest comp we've seen in a while.


Pretty similar in terms of age/level/results. Weeks had a bit better walk and strikeout rates, Huira has a bit better power numbers. I don't have a good way of comparing the Nashville vs Albuquerque park / league effects.

Both were similar to what Braun put up in AAA at age 23.


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Offline  Re: When Will Keston Hiura Arrive In Milwaukee?
Posted: May 13, 2019, 1:30 PM Post
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If Shaw is hitting .167 come early June - and Hiura is hitting well - then the club can't be afraid to send Shaw to AAA to try and get his bat back on track.

A few weeks in the minors won't affect Shaw's service time calendar, he'll still get paid, and he can work on adjustments without nearly as much pressure.

If he can't see the value in that, well that's kind of tough. The team is trying to win a division, and guys hitting .167 aren't helping. I'm not saying to be rude to the guy - or not acknowledge what he has done for the club the last couple of years. But in the end, you need guys to produce, and him struggling is helping no one.


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Offline  Re: When Will Keston Hiura Arrive In Milwaukee?
Posted: May 14, 2019, 8:39 AM Post
Posts: 99
https://twitter.com/ByRobertMurray/stat ... 11456?s=19


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