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Is Carter Stewart about to dramatically change baseball?

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Offline  Re: Is Carter Stewart about to dramatically change baseball?
#21

Posted: May 23, 2019, 7:39 PM Post
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OldHeidelberg said:
jerichoholicninja said:


Isn't already basically forbidden for MLB teams to sign amateur players from Japan and somehow Canadians are eligible for the MLB draft while kids from every other country in the world are considered international free agents. MLB will come up with something. They've shown they're never short on stupid ideas.


I guess I never thought about it before but wouldn't this be because of the existence of the Toronto Blue Jays?


Maybe. I just did a quick google and could find no answer.


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Offline  Re: Is Carter Stewart about to dramatically change baseball?
#22

Posted: May 27, 2019, 12:03 PM Post
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But that also means he's declining a sizeable signing bonus with an MLB team. Sure it's more money with Japan, but when you're rich either way I don't know how that's necessarily a better option. I don't see this becoming a real trend nor changing much of anything about the MLB draft process.


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Offline  Re: Is Carter Stewart about to dramatically change baseball?
#23

Posted: May 27, 2019, 12:44 PM Post
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GAME05 said:
But that also means he's declining a sizeable signing bonus with an MLB team. Sure it's more money with Japan, but when you're rich either way I don't know how that's necessarily a better option. I don't see this becoming a real trend nor changing much of anything about the MLB draft process.


A $6 million guarantee is significantly better than a $1.5 million guarantee.

He thinks (and the Japanese team thinks) that he is worth more than the MLB slotting system thinks he should be forced to take.

And that $1.5 isn't nearly enough to sustain him over his lifetime.


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Offline  Re: Is Carter Stewart about to dramatically change baseball?
#24

Posted: May 27, 2019, 5:34 PM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
GAME05 said:
But that also means he's declining a sizeable signing bonus with an MLB team. Sure it's more money with Japan, but when you're rich either way I don't know how that's necessarily a better option. I don't see this becoming a real trend nor changing much of anything about the MLB draft process.


This probably won't have any impact on how MLB handles the MLB draft because Stewart just isn't high profile enough to change anything. If I was a MLB owner, I could care less if the #50 prospect went off the board to play in Japan. If Joe Gray had done the same last year, the Brewers would have just picked a different player and 99.999999% of MLB fans would have already forgotten all about Joe Gray.

It will be interesting to see if an agent could convince the next Harper or Strasburg to give up an 8.5 million dollar signing bonus from MLB if a Japanese team was willing to pay 15 million. That might be a motivator for MLB to handle the draft differently. I very much doubt this would happen though, when seeing the extension a player like Eloy Jimenez got, I think it would make more financial sense for a "can't miss" prospect to take smaller money in terms of a signing bonus in hopes or getting a much bigger extension after 3 years playing baseball in the USA. But we would have to see how that would play out.

MLB probably does have concerns about Kyler Murray because that was high profile and Murray will remain in the public eye in the USA. But will that motivate MLB to do a significant overhaul to the draft process? I wouldn't think so, just because there just won't be very many prospects like that, and that would make it pretty foolish to overhaul a system based on something that so rarely happens. Baseball has dealt with high school athletes opting to go to college to play football for decades and it doesn't seem to have hurt their business. If anything, I wouldn't be surprised to see an expansion of the comp rule pick, where teams would not only get a replacement pick if their selection doesn't sign but also if he signs and then opts to play a different sport within 1.5 years of when the pick was initially made (or something along those lines).

The biggest thing moving forward will be to see how Stewart performs in Japan. From what I've read, it seems Nippon Professional Baseball is considered either right at or just a notch above AAA baseball. How many first round pitchers don't even see AAA? I can't see too many other Japanese teams continue to make this type of investment if Stewart turns out to be a bust. I would not have made this investment if I was a Japanese team. Not with what I know about Carter Stewart. Now if it was Jackson Rutledge for an extra 1 million dollars (8 million instead of 7 million), that would be a different story.


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