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Cubs sign Craig Kimbrel (3 years / $43 million)

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Offline  Re: Cubs sign Craig Kimbrel (3 years / $43 million)
Posted: June 08, 2019, 6:45 PM Post
Posts: 17324
Brew crew 92 said:
I’m hoping Stearns truly goes crazy(in a good smart aggressive way)at the deadline and gets all of our non strengths turned into strengths so we can beat out the Cubbies and LAs.


Sorry, you just can't run a small market ballclub like that. We can't try to compete with the Cubs and Dodgers on their turf. We don't have the financial resources they do, and the Dodgers have the farm system to blow any trade offer we make out of the water.

That doesn't mean we can't make smart, calculated, aggressive moves to try to improve our weaknesses -- and recent history indicates we will. But we can't try to play the one-up game with the Dodgers and Cubs. Won't work, and the end result will likely be a return to the 2012-16 seasons.

We don't need to beat out the Cubs and Dodgers. We just need to be better than them for a short time in October. We can try to improve our weaknesses. We can give ourselves a chance to beat them in the playoffs. But trying to go toe to toe with them over 162 games is a fool's errand.


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Offline  Re: Cubs sign Craig Kimbrel (3 years / $43 million)
Posted: June 08, 2019, 7:39 PM Post
Posts: 1949
tmwiese55 said:
HiAndTight said:
tmwiese55 said:

You and I are on the same page for the most part. I'm by no means saying Kimbrell is bad. But I'd be fairly confident he's not the freak he was for years. And is a good reliever (but not freak) worth 15 mil, probably not and that's why I think we held off. Take from our perspective of how JJ finished last to how he looks now though, it 'could' be a bad sign. I'm merely saying it 'could' be a sign of a downfall coming. It also could be a small sample blip on the radar, we'll see, but that half season stretch (not a couple weeks) is cause for concern/risk. I'd love to have unlimited money to have him but as a Brewer fan that's just not the reality. If I'm the Cubs, I think it's a great signing all the way. Exactly what they needed and 15 mil to them is no big deal. For us, if he regresses it could really hurt as it would cost us a key other player next year.



I tihnk we generally do agree. But I'm not comparing him to Jeffress at all. I don't think Jeffress was ever THAT good and he had one absurdly good year. Kimbrel has had 6 or 7 as good seasons and when he's struggled, he's still been great. And I really do think it was just a few weeks. Like I said, Sept he had one bad outing and was dominant in the rest. Now you've got 1/3 of an inning where you gave up 4 Earned and 9 other innings in which you were dominant.

He could regress this year though just for the simple fact that it's June 6th and he hasn't been a part of a big league club yet. So in that regard, he is especially risky for the Brewers. We don't need him, and there's always a risk with a guy who starts the year this late.


oh yea I for sure wouldn't put JJ in his class. I just meant that the way he ended last year was a sign that something was up with his arm. In a weird way if that was the case with Kimbrel maybe this extended break is a good thing for him to rest it and he'll be strong for the stretch run.

For the question about payroll that was just asked to me. It's simply that we have no idea what that break even number is so it's impossible to rip them based on it. But basica common sense in that they have their payroll up what 30% above previous normal highs would lead one to believe they're doing all they can or at least more than they ever have before.

And no, me saying that 'you are acting like they're bumbling idiots' is not hyperbole. I believe that is exactly what you're doing here.


About that 30% increase in payroll:

The brewers had a 66 million operating income last year, NOT including playoff revenue, according to Forbes. So a 30% increase in payroll is not that impressive when we consider that playoff revenue could be as much as 20 million by itself. The 66 million is NOT net income, but if we take away 40% for tax and int. = 40 mil.

If playoff revenue is conservatively at 10 mil + 40 mil. Profit = 50 million.

2018 profit > 50 mil. Conservatively.

2019 > 30 million extra payroll
> 9 mil. Extra for fox(National)
> 8 mil. Extra attendance revenue

= 13 million more expenses

27 million profit. Not including playoff revenue if we make the playoffs.

Next year extra 8-10 mil for turner/espn. and 8–10 mil extra for local tv deal = 16 mil min. Extra next year.

These are estimates, but they are probably close to reality.

When people say we can’t compete with the Cubbies and Dodgers payrolls of 200-235 million, ok, yeah, but Stearns & co. doesn’t need a 200 mil. Payroll, but based upon reality of profits for attanasio, spending 10-15 million at the deadline really is NO BIG DEAL.


Last edited by Brew crew 92 on June 09, 2019, 6:58 AM, edited 3 times in total.

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Offline  Re: Cubs sign Craig Kimbrel (3 years / $43 million)
Posted: June 08, 2019, 7:44 PM Post
Posts: 17324
(One of) your mistakes here is that you seem to be assuming that operating income and net profit are the same. They are not.

And we probably can spend 10-15M at the deadline if we want to, but it would be foolish to do it for the sake of doing it just because we *can*. We would probably do it if an opportunity presented itself that we felt we couldn't pass up on.

And it still wouldn't guarantee we'd be better than the Dodgers.


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Offline  Re: Cubs sign Craig Kimbrel (3 years / $43 million)
Posted: June 08, 2019, 8:00 PM Post
Posts: 1949
adambr2 said:
(One of) your mistakes here is that you seem to be assuming that operating income and net profit are the same. They are not.

And we probably can spend 10-15M at the deadline if we want to, but it would be foolish to do it for the sake of doing it just because we *can*. We would probably do it if an opportunity presented itself that we felt we couldn't pass up on.

And it still wouldn't guarantee we'd be better than the Dodgers.


I know there not the same, that’s why the 35% taken off, and the conservative playoff revenue.

Opportunity probably will present itself with our lack of prospect capital and our weaknesses needing to be addressed.

Nothing is guaranteed, but we have the only equal of Bellinger in Yelich and a Hader they don’t have. Their 200+ million quality overwhelming depth can’t be matched no matter what we do, but with another bat and an overwhelmingly historic dominant bullpen could give them problems.


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Offline  Re: Cubs sign Craig Kimbrel (3 years / $43 million)
Posted: June 09, 2019, 2:49 AM Post
Posts: 3573
adambr2 said:
Brew crew 92 said:
I’m hoping Stearns truly goes crazy(in a good smart aggressive way)at the deadline and gets all of our non strengths turned into strengths so we can beat out the Cubbies and LAs.


Sorry, you just can't run a small market ballclub like that. We can't try to compete with the Cubs and Dodgers on their turf. We don't have the financial resources they do, and the Dodgers have the farm system to blow any trade offer we make out of the water.

That doesn't mean we can't make smart, calculated, aggressive moves to try to improve our weaknesses -- and recent history indicates we will. But we can't try to play the one-up game with the Dodgers and Cubs. Won't work, and the end result will likely be a return to the 2012-16 seasons.

We don't need to beat out the Cubs and Dodgers. We just need to be better than them for a short time in October. We can try to improve our weaknesses. We can give ourselves a chance to beat them in the playoffs. But trying to go toe to toe with them over 162 games is a fool's errand.


Great post. And by doing just what you said, not trying to constantly one up teams like the Cubs and Dodgers, we're in a position year after year to be competitive. We have an owner who's already stretched the payroll, who'll add more payroll. But we're not going to be able to match them.

The one area I would like to see us do better in is developing from within. The Dodgers are just ridiculous at it. We haven't had a talent like Walker Buehler develop and come through our system in decades and the Dodgers have him right after they had Kershaw and on the mound and when they have guys like Bellinger, Seager and others in their lineup.

But we just have to put ourselves in a position to be competitive. If we're able to do that year in and year out, as the Cardinals have, we'll hopefully be able to break through at some point.

Plus, again, even if we matched the Dodgers and Cubs on paper, the NL is still playing second fiddle to a couple far more talented AL teams.


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Offline  Re: Cubs sign Craig Kimbrel (3 years / $43 million)
Posted: June 09, 2019, 2:57 AM Post
Posts: 3573
adambr2 said:
(One of) your mistakes here is that you seem to be assuming that operating income and net profit are the same. They are not.

And we probably can spend 10-15M at the deadline if we want to, but it would be foolish to do it for the sake of doing it just because we *can*. We would probably do it if an opportunity presented itself that we felt we couldn't pass up on.

And it still wouldn't guarantee we'd be better than the Dodgers.



He did qualify it by subtracting taxes(though less than they would likely be).

There's also a reserve fund(I'd imagine) that they have going.

Anyway, the Brewers didn't think Kimbrel or Kuechel were worth what they wanted. That's what it comes down to. I would disagree if Kimbrel was one year...even if it was 1 year 13 million, but not the next two years.

I've been in the minority in not believing that Kuechel would be a huge addition to this club. I like our staff for the most part.
We need a couple impact relievers at the trade deadline and we'll see what happens to Aggie and Shaw in the meantime and how Hiura performs when he invitably gets called back up, but we're sitting in 1st place on June 9th and we've spent on elite FA's the last few years.

Really hard to be upset about the way the Brewers are doing things.


Oh, and one more thing. This idea that we can just slash payroll, thereby ensuring the owners make money in the years that they're not competitive, that's a great idea in principle. But the Brewers have spent big chunks of money each year they weren't competitive to build minor league systems, they improved Miller Park...things of that nature.

Also, if you were an investor, would you really want to go 3-5 years without any income?


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Offline  Re: Cubs sign Craig Kimbrel (3 years / $43 million)
Posted: June 10, 2019, 8:42 AM Post
Posts: 4193
Location: Madison, WI
adambr2 said:
(One of) your mistakes here is that you seem to be assuming that operating income and net profit are the same. They are not.

And we probably can spend 10-15M at the deadline if we want to, but it would be foolish to do it for the sake of doing it just because we *can*. We would probably do it if an opportunity presented itself that we felt we couldn't pass up on.

And it still wouldn't guarantee we'd be better than the Dodgers.


And spending 10-15 mil at the deadline is much different than committing that this year plus another 15 mil per year for two more years for a relief pitcher.

Long story short, it's just hard to sit here and call the management cheap when they did shell out significant money at least years deadline for Soria, Granderson, Schoop. Then, this year they dropped 30 mil more on Grandal/Moose. The Cain contract. Then when the young starters generally failed to start the year, they spend what 3ish mil on Gio (don't recall exact number). As a small market team, they're being smart and strategic here trying to find values and short term commitments rather than being on the hook for a few years. Nailed both on Grandal/Moose yet folks are still ripping them. And yes I'm sure they see the Pen issues right now and moves will be made to help that out by the deadline.

Dallas would probably be the more fitting one to complain about since he signed for only 1 year. But looking at how the late signees faired last year one has to be a bit worried about that as well. And again 13 mil there or maybe finding two bullpen guys for half the cost, certainly reasonable to sure up the pen instead.

all this himming and hawing over how much money they have is just a waste of time. We just don't know and never will. If you're going to be a fan of the smallest market team just get used to it, they're not going to outspend and throw money around very often on large multi year salary commitments very often. But when they normally operate in the 90-100 mil area when they're trying to win but this year are pushing into the 120-130 area I think it's fair to say they've done their part and are trying.


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Offline  Re: Cubs sign Craig Kimbrel (3 years / $43 million)
Posted: June 10, 2019, 9:39 AM Post
Posts: 1949
tmwiese55 said:
adambr2 said:
(One of) your mistakes here is that you seem to be assuming that operating income and net profit are the same. They are not.

And we probably can spend 10-15M at the deadline if we want to, but it would be foolish to do it for the sake of doing it just because we *can*. We would probably do it if an opportunity presented itself that we felt we couldn't pass up on.

And it still wouldn't guarantee we'd be better than the Dodgers.


And spending 10-15 mil at the deadline is much different than committing that this year plus another 15 mil per year for two more years for a relief pitcher.

Long story short, it's just hard to sit here and call the management cheap when they did shell out significant money at least years deadline for Soria, Granderson, Schoop. Then, this year they dropped 30 mil more on Grandal/Moose. The Cain contract. Then when the young starters generally failed to start the year, they spend what 3ish mil on Gio (don't recall exact number). As a small market team, they're being smart and strategic here trying to find values and short term commitments rather than being on the hook for a few years. Nailed both on Grandal/Moose yet folks are still ripping them. And yes I'm sure they see the Pen issues right now and moves will be made to help that out by the deadline.

Dallas would probably be the more fitting one to complain about since he signed for only 1 year. But looking at how the late signees faired last year one has to be a bit worried about that as well. And again 13 mil there or maybe finding two bullpen guys for half the cost, certainly reasonable to sure up the pen instead.

all this himming and hawing over how much money they have is just a waste of time. We just don't know and never will. If you're going to be a fan of the smallest market team just get used to it, they're not going to outspend and throw money around very often on large multi year salary commitments very often. But when they normally operate in the 90-100 mil area when they're trying to win but this year are pushing into the 120-130 area I think it's fair to say they've done their part and are trying.


Brewers ownership group is NOT cheap, I’ve never said they were.

And I realize that by upping their payroll to 150+ mil. Would potentially set a dangerous precedent.

All I want is a team, that’s smack dab in a window of championship contention, to spend, to improve our chances of competing, vs the 200+ million dollar teams.

If Stearns decided no on Kimbrel, that’s different than Mark A saying no.

I think anyone that is a brewer fan for any length of time knows the small market spending limits we’ve had for decades and don’t need to be told to get used to it. But when thru over performance by the best fans in mlb(fact) or the tremendous money paid to all teams(National tv deals,Bam,misc.) the crew has revenue’d past the small market to mid-market, I believe we can expect to spend to reflect the aforementioned.


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Offline  Re: Cubs sign Craig Kimbrel (3 years / $43 million)
Posted: June 10, 2019, 9:48 AM Post
Posts: 17324
I will admit, seeing Kimbrel end up in Chicago is definitely more painful than if he had would up in Tampa. It's a possible division shifter.

Losing Knebel this season was a game changer. We will probably go add another Swarzak/Soria type at the deadline. And we really do need another high leverage reliever. I've given up on it being Williams or Barnes. I think by later this season, Burnes definitely has the ability to be that guy. Maybe even Houser, too. Jeffress still has great numbers, but you can tell he's not quite there -- yet.

I still don't think that moving Nelson to a pen role is totally out of the question yet if he doesn't have success in his next start or two. He's literally two days from not being able to be optioned any more.


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Offline  Re: Cubs sign Craig Kimbrel (3 years / $43 million)
Posted: June 10, 2019, 10:00 AM Post
Posts: 1949
adambr2 said:
I will admit, seeing Kimbrel end up in Chicago is definitely more painful than if he had would up in Tampa. It's a possible division shifter.

Losing Knebel this season was a game changer. We will probably go add another Swarzak/Soria type at the deadline. And we really do need another high leverage reliever. I've given up on it being Williams or Barnes. I think by later this season, Burnes definitely has the ability to be that guy. Maybe even Houser, too. Jeffress still has great numbers, but you can tell he's not quite there -- yet.

I still don't think that moving Nelson to a pen role is totally out of the question yet if he doesn't have success in his next start or two. He's literally two days from not being able to be optioned any more.


Agree with all of your points.
I believe this will be Stearns greatest achievement as architect this deadline. A game changing bat, high leverage pen arm, and potential stud starter, all could be acquired.

I also think Nelson to the pen has potential, but regardless, I believe Jimmy will get better and improve to be a major weapon for this team moving forward.


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Offline  Re: Cubs sign Craig Kimbrel (3 years / $43 million)
Posted: June 10, 2019, 10:33 AM Post
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I believe the Brewers are likely in a place where there are very few moves available to them which will enhance their window and loads more which will shorten it. As such, I want them to be appropriately aggressive, and I am very happy to have them not do anything if that avoids a Suppan like move.

As long as they don't spend money for the sake of thinking a higher payroll automatically means a more competitive team I will be happy.


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Online  Re: Cubs sign Craig Kimbrel (3 years / $43 million)
Posted: June 22, 2019, 9:50 PM Post
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It’s obviously way too early to do victory laps, but Kimbrel has reportedly been sitting between 93-95 mph with his fastball in his Triple-A appearances so far (another of which was tonight). Over the past couple of years he has typically been 97-99 mph, and frequently touched 100+ mph. It could be that he is just building up arm strength, but at least it has Cubs fans uneasy for the time being.


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Online  Re: Cubs sign Craig Kimbrel (3 years / $43 million)
Posted: June 26, 2019, 6:49 AM Post
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Craig Kimbrel had his final Triple-A appearance last night and is set to join the Cubs in the near future. This Chicago Sun Times article (LINK) confirms that his fastball is currently topping out at 95-mph which would be between 4-6 mph slower than his max pitch speed has been at any point since 2011.

Maybe it won’t matter, or maybe he hasn’t been going max effort, or maybe he is still working up his arm strength, but I am sort of fascinated to see if he has actually lost any velocity. This obviously could very well prove to be a big nothing-burger.


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Offline  Re: Cubs sign Craig Kimbrel (3 years / $43 million)
Posted: June 26, 2019, 9:51 AM Post
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Location: New Berlin, WI
I fully believe he'll get near peak velocity back in due time. Might take 7 or 8 appearances to get true upper-90s, but he'll get back there. I'm hopeful that he'll have some rust or just not be that good, but I still stand by this being very bad for the Brewers.


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Offline  Re: Cubs sign Craig Kimbrel (3 years / $43 million)
Posted: June 26, 2019, 2:09 PM Post
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95 isn't impressive anymore but it's still well above average velocity. Unless the drop is due to an underlying injury I really don't see it being a big deal.


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Offline  Re: Cubs sign Craig Kimbrel (3 years / $43 million)
Posted: June 26, 2019, 2:51 PM Post
Posts: 4193
Location: Madison, WI
jerichoholicninja said:
95 isn't impressive anymore but it's still well above average velocity. Unless the drop is due to an underlying injury I really don't see it being a big deal.


Yea it could very easily just be ramping up after the long delay. But, combine with his late season issues last year (don't recall if his velo was down) and 'could' be a bad sign. Still way too early to know or make anything of though


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Offline  Re: Cubs sign Craig Kimbrel (3 years / $43 million)
Posted: June 26, 2019, 3:09 PM Post
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Hope for the worst but expect the best hahaha


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Online  Re: Cubs sign Craig Kimbrel (3 years / $43 million)
Posted: June 27, 2019, 3:30 PM Post
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Kimbrel got the save for the Cubs today. His fastball was mostly 97-mph, so higher than previously reported. He got in a little trouble (double and a walk), but for it being his first MLB game action this year he looked pretty solid.


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Online  Re: Cubs sign Craig Kimbrel (3 years / $43 million)
Posted: July 01, 2019, 9:15 PM Post
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It's a small sample obviously, but Kimbrel's ERA with the Cubs so far is 13.50. I expect him to get better, but that isn't exactly a great start to his Cubs career.


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Offline  Re: Cubs sign Craig Kimbrel (3 years / $43 million)
Posted: July 01, 2019, 9:59 PM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
It's a small sample obviously, but Kimbrel's ERA with the Cubs so far is 13.50. I expect him to get better, but that isn't exactly a great start to his Cubs career.


I would argue this is a fantastic start to his Cubs career...

[smile]


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