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Is 2020 Braun’s last year in Milwaukee?

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Offline  Re: Is 2020 Braun’s last year in Milwaukee?
#41

Posted: July 07, 2019, 9:44 PM Post
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Or just look at the whole thing. Ryan Braun is hitting 272/321/455/776 for the whole season. That puts him at the 20th best LFer or 45th in the OF in the entire MLB. Of those 45 OFers, 10 others have fewer ABs than Braun. Ryan has 280 ABs. These 45 OFers range from 240-360 ABs (Yelich has 304).

So, while not the top of MLB OFers anymore, he still is starting caliber. Just bottom third...

And he'd be the 17th best 1B offensively in the MLB.


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Offline  Re: Is 2020 Braun’s last year in Milwaukee?
#42

Posted: July 09, 2019, 7:33 AM Post
Posts: 93
Location: Mequon
CheezWizHed said:
Or just look at the whole thing. Ryan Braun is hitting 272/321/455/776 for the whole season. That puts him at the 20th best LFer or 45th in the OF in the entire MLB. Of those 45 OFers, 10 others have fewer ABs than Braun. Ryan has 280 ABs. These 45 OFers range from 240-360 ABs (Yelich has 304).

So, while not the top of MLB OFers anymore, he still is starting caliber. Just bottom third...

And he'd be the 17th best 1B offensively in the MLB.

You can't just look at one's entire season and say that's exactly how that player has performed. It's like looking at a pen arm with a 4.21 ERA and saying that's exactly the type of pitcher he is but when you look at the game logs you see they have a 2.52 ERA through 25 innings of work so far this season but had 2 brutal outings spanning .2ip, 5ER - which is why the ERA is 4.21 and significantly higher. Disregarding 97% of this player's performance this year and chalking them up to the quality of a 4.21 ERA pen arm is utter nonsense. It's baseball. There's ups and downs for everyone. It's about consistency. And Braun had a worthless 10 game stretch in mid-April otherwise he's been around a 120 WRC+ performer this year.

I can't believe that needed to be explained.


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Offline  Re: Is 2020 Braun’s last year in Milwaukee?
#43

Posted: July 09, 2019, 7:39 AM Post
Posts: 93
Location: Mequon
trwi7 said:
Wahoo Maniac said:
I LOL’d at that one because that’s all you can do. Apparently a brutal 10 game stretch in mid-April renders his 120 area wrc+ the rest of the first half meaningless making him a league average hitter. He also has a positive DRS (1) in LF so there’s that as well. His defense no doubt is regressing but he’s still easily an average LF with a good accurate arm. Also, he’s on pace for 538 PA, which amounts to starting 3 of every 4 games. He’s 35 and has always had nagging injuries so I’d say that’s a pretty good pace.

Maybe Logan82 should reread my last sentence in previous post because he’s proving my point.


You can't take out a 10 game stretch. Every player would look a lot better if you took out their worst 10 game stretch.

And if you want to break it up like that you can say he's been bad two out of the three months this year.

March/April: .196/.250/.381
May: .363/.427/.588
June/July: .275/.302/.422

Except he hasn't been a bad month. He's had a brutal 10 game stretch within a month causing the overall numbers to drop hard. CONSISTENCY is the name of the game. Game logs matter the most. What are they doing from game to game and week to week. The month and full season is what it builds up to but those numbers don't tell the story. Like else anything numbers related, you have to play in the weeds to figure it out.

THIS GOES FOR EVERY PLAYER, including pitchers. A starting pitcher can have 5 starts in a month and pitch great in 4 of them and toss up a season's worst outing making that entire month look nothing like it actually was.


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Offline  Re: Is 2020 Braun’s last year in Milwaukee?
#44

Posted: July 09, 2019, 7:50 AM Post
Posts: 18985
Braun has a 0.6 WAR this year and he is right in line with projections and recent year performance. He isn't a particular valuable player anymore, no matter how you want to break the numbers down. He is still here because he has a large contract through next year.

And goodness, the cherry picking a bad stretch out of someone's stats this year is getting really out of hand. Braun's production is what it is this year. You can "dig through the weeds" on almost any player, cherry pick a bad stretch, polish them right up and make them look good. It's been done excessively this season, with numerous players. No, consistency is not the most important thing, production is. We've got consistent players on the team, but most of them (Cain, for example), have been consistently mediocre this season.

Braun is actually not very consistent at this point in his career at all. He'll have a great stretch when he swings a great bat, then he'll have an awful stretch, and if you really "dig through the weeds" you can find more of those than just that one 10 game stretch this year.


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Offline  Re: Is 2020 Braun’s last year in Milwaukee?
#45

Posted: July 09, 2019, 8:02 AM Post
Posts: 3060
adambr2 said:
Braun has a 0.6 WAR this year and he is right in line with projections and recent year performance. He isn't a particular valuable player anymore, no matter how you want to break the numbers down. He is still here because he has a large contract through next year.

And goodness, the cherry picking a bad stretch out of someone's stats this year is getting really out of hand. Braun's production is what it is this year. You can "dig through the weeds" on almost any player, cherry pick a bad stretch, polish them right up and make them look good. It's been done excessively this season, with numerous players. No, consistency is not the most important thing, production is. We've got consistent players on the team, but most of them (Cain, for example), have been consistently mediocre this season.

Braun is actually not very consistent at this point in his career at all. He'll have a great stretch when he swings a great bat, then he'll have an awful stretch, and if you really "dig through the weeds" you can find more of those than just that one 10 game stretch this year.


Good take.
Overall, as you said, he’s produced, but inconsistently, as he is well past prime, so I believe should be expected. When he’s hot, he’s hot, when he’s not, he can be really bad, swinging at 3 breaking balls in the same at bat and missing the ball by 2-3 feet on every swing. But when he’s on, he’s still a lot of fun to watch hit.


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Offline  Re: Is 2020 Braun’s last year in Milwaukee?
#46

Posted: July 09, 2019, 12:05 PM Post
Posts: 4433
[b]You can't just look at one's entire season and say that's exactly how that player has performed. It's like looking at a pen arm with a 4.21 ERA and saying that's exactly the type of pitcher he is but when you look at the game logs you see they have a 2.52 ERA through 25 innings of work so far this season but had 2 brutal outings spanning .2ip, 5ER - which is why the ERA is 4.21 and significantly higher. Disregarding 97% of this player's performance this year and chalking them up to the quality of a 4.21 ERA pen arm is utter nonsense. It's baseball. There's ups and downs for everyone. It's about consistency. And Braun had a worthless 10 game stretch in mid-April otherwise he's been around a 120 WRC+ performer this year.[/b]

Isn't that how most people assess how well someone did in any given season? Sure all players have bad stretches but the good players have an equally good stretch to even it out. My worry is Braun might not be capable of that anymore. If he's average on a good day and still has bad days I'm not sure that is good enough for a team that wants to go to the playoffs.

There needs to be a King Thames version of the bible.


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Offline  Re: Is 2020 Braun’s last year in Milwaukee?
#47

Posted: July 09, 2019, 5:13 PM Post
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Posts: 2222
CheezWizHed said:
Or just look at the whole thing. Ryan Braun is hitting 272/321/455/776 for the whole season. That puts him at the 20th best LFer or 45th in the OF in the entire MLB. Of those 45 OFers, 10 others have fewer ABs than Braun. Ryan has 280 ABs. These 45 OFers range from 240-360 ABs (Yelich has 304).

So, while not the top of MLB OFers anymore, he still is starting caliber. Just bottom third...

And he'd be the 17th best 1B offensively in the MLB.


Wow. I don't know how anybody can say that Braun hasn't been consistent. We've never had a player more consistent than him. Every other productive player we've ever had (other than Yelich, Grandal, and Moustakas--all of whom we've barely had long enough to ever get into a real slump) since Fielder left the team has had month+ long stretches that are far worse than any month+ long stretch Braun has ever been through.

You know, guys in the prime of their careers like Santana, Thames, Aguilar, Shaw, Cain, Arcia, Pina, Segura, Villar, Lucroy, and Gomez. I think that is everybody.


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Offline  Re: Is 2020 Braun’s last year in Milwaukee?
#48

Posted: July 09, 2019, 6:31 PM Post
Posts: 8034
Braun is valuable. His production isn't over a 1/2 season. It's over far fewer games. Given than Gamel has been productive, it means we've been doing well in LF.


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Offline  Re: Is 2020 Braun’s last year in Milwaukee?
#49

Posted: July 10, 2019, 8:51 AM Post
Posts: 11948
Braun isn't bad, he puts up some decent offensive numbers, but I would hope 2020 is his last year here. Pretty low standards to trot out a poor defender that is good for about 1 WAR a season in like 450 ABs. If he could play more than the least valuable spot on the diamond that would sure help, but he really can't.

I don't know if he has the offense good enough to even try RF/1B again to give him some versatility. I bet a team would give him a shot to do it...but I would also bet said team isn't a good team so that really isn't saying much.

If you are looking to go places in October Braun starting in LF or being a horrendous corner OF/1B bench bat is not really an inspiring start.


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