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Dubon being called up

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Offline  Re: Dubon being called up
#41

Posted: July 07, 2019, 1:32 PM Post
Posts: 93
Location: Mequon
JohnBriggs12 said:
Wahoo Maniac said:
JohnBriggs12 said:
I don't think Arcia's been the real problem on offense this year. After all he's got the same amount of HR and almost as many RBI as Braun batting either 8th or 9th while striking out less. But this organization seems to have an offensive depth issue and it would be great to see Dubon be able to hold his own against major league pitching. This exposure to major league pitching comes at a time when it should help his development.

Arcia's been a problem at the plate for a large portion of his MLB career. His K rate is like 2.5% lower than Braun's too this year and he's 11yrs younger. It sounds like you think Braun and Arcia are comparable hitters, which they most certainly are not.

Arcia hasn't matured over his time. He's like Perez; they go about their business and never take that next step. He's a slightly better version of Alcides Escobar but with more power, less speed. He absolutely has been a hole in this lineup most of the time offering no consistency. Low BA, low OBP but his power came back (which was obviously going to happen as well).

Dubon is a high BA, high contact/low K bat who brings consistency to any lineup. He's been that way his entire career.


Arcia had what used to be called a sophomore slump for most of 2018. Other than the 5 months of 2018, he's been a productive major league hitter. His career K rate is actually below major league average. His BABIP rate would indicate he's hit in bad luck particularly this year. His OPS is 125 points higher with BABIP rate down 40 points? That's not easy to do. His walk rate could be better, but as the 8th hitter, I'd rather he be swinging with 2 outs and runners on. When he bats 9th, he gets better pitches to hit and he's slugging .487 in that spot compared to .410 with the pitcher batting behind him.

Let's see what Dubon does against major league pitching. Most guys K rates go up pretty significantly with the jump to the majors. I think he's ready to be a decent major league hitter, but I don't expect much more than something like .270/.320/.400. Useful sure. A future star? Doubtful.

I strongly disagree on Arcia being a productive MLB player outside of 2018. His 2016, 2018, 2019 he hasn't been productive offensively and his defense has been overrated the entire time. No analytics we have access to nor the eye test says he's played at an elite level ever. Every player, MVP or 25th man, has bad and great stretches. And Arcia is no different. He's had months over his career where he's flashed his potential but most of the time he's been unproductive.

I don't care if Arcia's K rate is lower than the MLB average. All that means is he puts the ball in play more than the average MLB player. That doesn't mean he's making good contact. I also don't care what Arcia does in the 9 hole when he has 12 games played there. And the eye test says he's not unlucky this year, it says the opposite. He's swung at plenty of garbage this year getting lucky that it resulted in a run scoring hit. It happens often enough where it's definitely noticeable. Since the start of 2018 his BA is 238 and OBP is 284 with a 22% K rate. That's his last 10 months of baseball - Perez has outperformed him over that span. His SLG this year bounced back to his 2017, which is expected, but his BA/OBP still suck.

Literally nobody is saying Dubon is a future star. It seems most people here don't think highly of him at all. I personally think Dubon can post somewhere in the ballpark of 275/320/740 as a rookie and improve from there. He might never reach 800 OPS but he doesn't have to if he becomes a 290+ hitter like he's capable of.


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Offline  Re: Dubon being called up
#42

Posted: July 07, 2019, 3:02 PM Post
Posts: 457
Jopal78! said:
Dubon is going to be an all glove no bat player in the major leagues. Not exactly what the team needs at this moment


What makes you believe he will be a "no bat"? He has hit very well in AAA. Last year .343/.348 - 922 OPS before he got hurt. This year .307/.343 - 855 OPS. There is every indication he will do well in the big leagues. In any case, he can't do any worse than Saladino's done since being called up. Saladino is 2 for 28 with 13 Ks. Dubon doesn't play the corner OF spots, but can play 3 Inf. positions well.


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Offline  Re: Dubon being called up
#43

Posted: July 07, 2019, 3:48 PM Post
Posts: 18985
Just to brighten things up even more, Counsell said in no uncertain terms that Dubon will be heading back down. So there will be plenty more Tyler Saladino coming up in the 2nd half.


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Offline  Re: Dubon being called up
#44

Posted: July 07, 2019, 3:53 PM Post
Posts: 4604
adambr2 said:
Just to brighten things up even more, Counsell said in no uncertain terms that Dubon will be heading back down. So there will be plenty more Tyler Saladino coming up in the 2nd half.


I can live with that... as long as Dubon gets some outfield work in.


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Offline  Re: Dubon being called up
#45

Posted: July 07, 2019, 4:41 PM Post
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Wahoo Maniac said:

I strongly disagree on Arcia being a productive MLB player outside of 2018. His 2016, 2018, 2019 he hasn't been productive offensively and his defense has been overrated the entire time. No analytics we have access to nor the eye test says he's played at an elite level ever. Every player, MVP or 25th man, has bad and great stretches. And Arcia is no different. He's had months over his career where he's flashed his potential but most of the time he's been unproductive.


I guess it may be semantics to decide on the definition of 'productive MLB player,' but he's been above replacement level every year (yes, including 2018) other than his partial first-year of 2016. When you perform better throughout almost your entire career than the guys you can plug in at the position each offseason, I DO think that's a productive MLB player....


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Offline  Re: Dubon being called up
#46

Posted: July 07, 2019, 4:56 PM Post
Posts: 18985
PeaveyFury said:
Wahoo Maniac said:

I strongly disagree on Arcia being a productive MLB player outside of 2018. His 2016, 2018, 2019 he hasn't been productive offensively and his defense has been overrated the entire time. No analytics we have access to nor the eye test says he's played at an elite level ever. Every player, MVP or 25th man, has bad and great stretches. And Arcia is no different. He's had months over his career where he's flashed his potential but most of the time he's been unproductive.


I guess it may be semantics to decide on the definition of 'productive MLB player,' but he's been above replacement level every year (yes, including 2018) other than his partial first-year of 2016. When you perform better throughout almost your entire career than the guys you can plug in at the position each offseason, I DO think that's a productive MLB player....


As you say, "productive" is a subjective term in the eye of the beholder, but if your definition is to be above replacement level, I would argue that that team of "productive" players will be a really bad team. I think the average MLB starter is somewhere in the ballpark of a 2.0 WAR.


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Offline  Re: Dubon being called up
#47

Posted: July 07, 2019, 8:32 PM Post
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PeaveyFury said:
Wahoo Maniac said:

I strongly disagree on Arcia being a productive MLB player outside of 2018. His 2016, 2018, 2019 he hasn't been productive offensively and his defense has been overrated the entire time. No analytics we have access to nor the eye test says he's played at an elite level ever. Every player, MVP or 25th man, has bad and great stretches. And Arcia is no different. He's had months over his career where he's flashed his potential but most of the time he's been unproductive.


I guess it may be semantics to decide on the definition of 'productive MLB player,' but he's been above replacement level every year (yes, including 2018) other than his partial first-year of 2016. When you perform better throughout almost your entire career than the guys you can plug in at the position each offseason, I DO think that's a productive MLB player....


Above replacement level is a pretty low bar to set and he was -0.4 last year so he wasn't above replacement level either. He's at 0.9 WAR in 1,450 plate appearances in his career which isn't that much better than replacement level.

Cards' fans wear jorts.


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Offline  Re: Dubon being called up
#48

Posted: July 07, 2019, 8:40 PM Post
Posts: 93
Location: Mequon
adambr2 said:
PeaveyFury said:
Wahoo Maniac said:

I strongly disagree on Arcia being a productive MLB player outside of 2018. His 2016, 2018, 2019 he hasn't been productive offensively and his defense has been overrated the entire time. No analytics we have access to nor the eye test says he's played at an elite level ever. Every player, MVP or 25th man, has bad and great stretches. And Arcia is no different. He's had months over his career where he's flashed his potential but most of the time he's been unproductive.


I guess it may be semantics to decide on the definition of 'productive MLB player,' but he's been above replacement level every year (yes, including 2018) other than his partial first-year of 2016. When you perform better throughout almost your entire career than the guys you can plug in at the position each offseason, I DO think that's a productive MLB player....


As you say, "productive" is a subjective term in the eye of the beholder, but if your definition is to be above replacement level, I would argue that that team of "productive" players will be a really bad team. I think the average MLB starter is somewhere in the ballpark of a 2.0 WAR.

Perez has outperformed Arcia in 2016 and overall from the start of 2018-present. That’s not being productive when you’re a starter. He’s had one productive season but not a productive career.

If people want to use WAR then according to BR he’s .3 overall between 2016/2018/2019. Fangraphs has him at -.4 over that span. I think WAR is flawed to a certain extent but this is what it says. I don’t want to use the 2 WAR line in the sand for every player because I think a productive player is someone who’s average or better in their given role (ie starter, utility, traditional backup, pinch hitter) as it’s more difficult to accumulate a 2+ WAR season if not starting.

Just curious, are below-average performers considered productive in anyone’s place of work?

Back to Dubon. Excellent AB today. Looked like a vet. Balanced, poised, controlled, went with the pitch on every foul ball and the ground out. That was a professional AB. With Arcia being back after the break they’ll obviously send Dubon back down but if Saladino struggles or there’s an injury then a Dubon will be back up.


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Offline  Re: Dubon being called up
#49

Posted: July 07, 2019, 10:36 PM Post
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trwi7 said:
Above replacement level is a pretty low bar to set and he was -0.4 last year so he wasn't above replacement level either. He's at 0.9 WAR in 1,450 plate appearances in his career which isn't that much better than replacement level.


Baseball Reference has him at 0.1 WAR for 2018, FWIW.

And again, it goes back to how you define productive. He’s 24 and hasn’t been below replacement level in his full seasons in MLB. I think expecting Dubon to be more “productive” than that should be viewed with some skepticism.


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Offline  Re: Dubon being called up
#50

Posted: July 08, 2019, 3:46 AM Post
Posts: 1392
Wahoo Maniac said:
TigerUppercut said:
.284 .342 .407 .749 - Orlando Arcia's career MILB numbers while being 2 years younger than Dubon at every level.

.301 .348 .424 .772 - Mauricio Dubon's career MILB numbers.

Not much difference. It'll be fun to see if Mauricio can translate his MILB numbers to some success at this level. We could use his versatility. He's not an all world defender but Arcia hasn't been very good either this year so defense is probably a wash.

This is false. Arcia was not 2yrs younger per level than Dubon. Dubon's first exposure to A+ he played half a season at 2.7yrs young while Arcia was 3.7yrs young. His first exposure to AA he played half a season and was 3.4yrs young while Arcia was 4.1yrs young. His first exposure to AAA he played half a season and was 4.4yrs young while Arcia was 5.5yrs young.

Also, Dubon's bat profile is much better than Arcia's. Arcia was, and still is, a glove first player. Dubon is the opposite. He's a high contact, low K, high BA hitter with a great understanding of the zone while offering much better base stealing/running. He'll hit more doubles/triples just not HR. Dubon will most likely be a solid SS while having a solid arm (plenty good to play SS but not great). The way Arcia is playing defense this year I'd bank on Dubon not being worse. Dubon has the potential to be a plus bat he just won't have the over the wall power.




You realize that Arcia was born in August of '94 while Dubon was born in July of '94. So Dubon is older.

You also realize that the -3.7 or whatever is just relative to the other players at a given level? So you have to actually look at the players age HE was at each level, not just the average ages of the other players during the time he spent at that level.

Arcia at 18 played in low A. Spent the whole year there.
19 he moved up to HiA.
20 AA
21 AAA/55 games at the big league level.

Dubon-18 he played at Rookie level.
19-1/3rd of a year at low A.
20-spent half the year in LowA and HiA.
21-Again, half the year at HiA and AA.
22-Half the year in AA then moved up to AAA.
23-AAA
24-AAA-Now called up due to injury.

Arcia minor league line-.284/.342/.407 OPS of .749
Dubon-301/.348/.424 OPS of .772


So it's not really false, Arcia is 4 years futher along than the OLDER Dubon and their lines in the minors are similar. Plus, Arcia's a superior defensive player. Probably by a wide margin, but we'll have to see as it's pretty tough to accurately compare minor league defensive stats to big league defensive stats,

But I'm just curious, what do you think Arcia would have done if he'd have been able to spend an additional 4 years in the minor leagues? You think just maybe his offensive production would be better if he was facing minor league pitching instead of big league pitching?

Just something to keep in mind before we write off a 24 year old SS who's already proven he's a very-very good defensive shortstop despite being an up and down offensive player.

So, one player has spent the last 4 seasons playing in the big leagues and the other has spent the last 4 years playing in the minor leagues. And you think it's equal to compare those players based on their minor league stats?

Also, Dubon's bat profile is much better than Arcia's. Arcia was, and still is, a glove first player. Dubon is the opposite. He's a high contact, low K, high BA hitter with a great understanding of the zone while offering much better base stealing/running.


Isn't "high contact," and "low K," redundant? And again, given that Arcia was playing in the majors for the last 4 years while Dubon was improving his offensive line in the minors, I think it's pretty fair we throw this out.


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Offline  Re: Dubon being called up
#51

Posted: July 08, 2019, 3:55 AM Post
Posts: 1392
JohnBriggs12 said:
I don't think Arcia's been the real problem on offense this year. After all he's got the same amount of HR and almost as many RBI as Braun batting either 8th or 9th while striking out less. But this organization seems to have an offensive depth issue and it would be great to see Dubon be able to hold his own against major league pitching. This exposure to major league pitching comes at a time when it should help his development.



I don't think Arcia's been a problem at all this year. If he wasn't so highly regarded, he'd probably be the one tearing up AAA and we'd all be that much more excited about him, but because he struggled when he was a very young player, and hasn't been the most consistent, and now this year mostly IMO because up until this point, we've lost a ton of production from CF, Shaw and Aguilar, more focus is being put on Arcia.

Arcia's 24, he's an elite defensive SS IMO, something that's getting harder to see using the metrics as shifting becomes more prevalent and he's being asked to play all over the place. He's certainly got issues with plate discipline, but any just about any other 24 year old playing a position like SS or Catcher would be given more slack than him.

I hope Dubon comes up and is as good as some believe he will be. In a perfect world, you'd be able to use Arcia, Dubon, or a combination of the two until Turang develops and reaches the big leagues. That's 3 years away however in a optimistic outlook. A lot could happen between now and then. But I defensively think people are a little too hard on Arcia. Maybe it's because we're in another golden age of SS's with sooo many productive ones all around baseball.


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Offline  Re: Dubon being called up
#52

Posted: July 08, 2019, 7:58 AM Post
Posts: 3060
If I’m Stearns I option Arcia, and give Dubon a real trial, to see if we can add a better hitter than Arcia, to this lineup. I personally believe him to be a better hitter. The defense, at least according to CC could be closer than we think, but, nonetheless, I want the potential of the better bat, especially with this offense being proven incapable of consistent run scoring, without benefit of the big fly.


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Offline  Re: Dubon being called up
#53

Posted: July 09, 2019, 12:20 PM Post
Posts: 4433
I think WAR has to be taken with a grain of salt when it comes to defense first players. Defense is very hard to accurately assess on it's own and even harder to determine how valuable it is compared to offensive production. I also think defensive value fluctuates with what type of pitching staff any particular team has. It's just too fluid to measure in a fixed formula IMHO.

There needs to be a King Thames version of the bible.


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Offline  Re: Dubon being called up
#54

Posted: July 09, 2019, 12:21 PM Post
Posts: 93
Location: Mequon
OnTheBlack said:
Wahoo Maniac said:
TigerUppercut said:
.284 .342 .407 .749 - Orlando Arcia's career MILB numbers while being 2 years younger than Dubon at every level.

.301 .348 .424 .772 - Mauricio Dubon's career MILB numbers.

Not much difference. It'll be fun to see if Mauricio can translate his MILB numbers to some success at this level. We could use his versatility. He's not an all world defender but Arcia hasn't been very good either this year so defense is probably a wash.

This is false. Arcia was not 2yrs younger per level than Dubon. Dubon's first exposure to A+ he played half a season at 2.7yrs young while Arcia was 3.7yrs young. His first exposure to AA he played half a season and was 3.4yrs young while Arcia was 4.1yrs young. His first exposure to AAA he played half a season and was 4.4yrs young while Arcia was 5.5yrs young.

Also, Dubon's bat profile is much better than Arcia's. Arcia was, and still is, a glove first player. Dubon is the opposite. He's a high contact, low K, high BA hitter with a great understanding of the zone while offering much better base stealing/running. He'll hit more doubles/triples just not HR. Dubon will most likely be a solid SS while having a solid arm (plenty good to play SS but not great). The way Arcia is playing defense this year I'd bank on Dubon not being worse. Dubon has the potential to be a plus bat he just won't have the over the wall power.




You realize that Arcia was born in August of '94 while Dubon was born in July of '94. So Dubon is older.

You also realize that the -3.7 or whatever is just relative to the other players at a given level? So you have to actually look at the players age HE was at each level, not just the average ages of the other players during the time he spent at that level.

Arcia at 18 played in low A. Spent the whole year there.
19 he moved up to HiA.
20 AA
21 AAA/55 games at the big league level.

Dubon-18 he played at Rookie level.
19-1/3rd of a year at low A.
20-spent half the year in LowA and HiA.
21-Again, half the year at HiA and AA.
22-Half the year in AA then moved up to AAA.
23-AAA
24-AAA-Now called up due to injury.

Arcia minor league line-.284/.342/.407 OPS of .749
Dubon-301/.348/.424 OPS of .772


So it's not really false, Arcia is 4 years futher along than the OLDER Dubon and their lines in the minors are similar. Plus, Arcia's a superior defensive player. Probably by a wide margin, but we'll have to see as it's pretty tough to accurately compare minor league defensive stats to big league defensive stats,

But I'm just curious, what do you think Arcia would have done if he'd have been able to spend an additional 4 years in the minor leagues? You think just maybe his offensive production would be better if he was facing minor league pitching instead of big league pitching?

Just something to keep in mind before we write off a 24 year old SS who's already proven he's a very-very good defensive shortstop despite being an up and down offensive player.

So, one player has spent the last 4 seasons playing in the big leagues and the other has spent the last 4 years playing in the minor leagues. And you think it's equal to compare those players based on their minor league stats?

Also, Dubon's bat profile is much better than Arcia's. Arcia was, and still is, a glove first player. Dubon is the opposite. He's a high contact, low K, high BA hitter with a great understanding of the zone while offering much better base stealing/running.


Isn't "high contact," and "low K," redundant? And again, given that Arcia was playing in the majors for the last 4 years while Dubon was improving his offensive line in the minors, I think it's pretty fair we throw this out.

Yes, those extra 2 weeks Dubon's been breathing longer than Arcia is a massive difference maker. You're right!

TigerUppercut I assumed was referring to age relative to level because one's actual age at a certain level is irrelevant so why even refer to that? For example, if Arcia was 20yrs old in AA and the league average age was 20yrs old while Dubon was 20yrs old in AA but the league average age was 22yrs old then what would you conclude? You "should" conclude that Dubon is facing tougher competition from older, more experienced/advanced players on average and factor that into the evaluation process. You do realize that's how it works, right???

Arcia is a glove first player, always has been. His bat profile was always he "might" be an average hitter with some pop but he he's a plus SS having a plus arm whereas Dubon's bat profile has always been above avg to plus (hitting for a high BA) playing average+ defense at SS with a solid arm (he'd be better at 2b though given how his range/arm plays). Get the difference? That being Arcia was most likely going to be a below-average hitter (spoiler: he is) but could be average if reaches his potential while Dubon profiles to hit for a high BA being an above avg/plus bat. Profile (approach is part of that) and production at age relative to level are things that matter.

Also, Dubon was playing HS ball in the states when Arcia was playing pro ball in Venezuala, which allowed him to head straight to A ball to start the season whereas a guy like Dubon enters rookie ball - that's common. That difference played a role in each player's development. Not every player develops at the same pace either. Not every team pushes their prospects forward at the same pace. Not every org has other/better players who will move quicker ahead of them taking a spot (Dubon's played same positions alongside some great talents in Boston as well as others who've made it to MLB while Arcia had nobody around him). If Arcia had a solid glove instead of winning the GG in AA he most certainly wouldn't have been up. But when you have the defensive ability he does you're going to be called up early regardless of whether or not the bat still needs more development, especially when he was able to walk right into the starting role in MLB. To answer your question, if Arcia repeated each level (A+/AA/AAA) where he was now at the age relative to level that Dubon was at, which you would have seen is 0.5-1yr difference, I've no idea if his numbers drastically improve. Given his profile, which has been spot on, I doubt it. Maybe he hits the same, maybe he hits slightly worse, maybe he hits slightly better.

Ever think Arcia was just overrated? He went from being unranked after A ball to just sneeking inside the Top 100 after A+ to Top 10 after AA. He went from a "below average" bat projection to an "average" bat projection after he posted his 120+ wrc+ being 4yrs young for level in A+ and AA. Think about that - 4yrs young posting good numbers offensively and scouts still said he was going to max out as an average hitter in MLB. And even with him winning the GG in AA that doesn't mean he was going to be a GG caliber player. He's been a plus defender until this year but everyone keeps saying he's been elite - no he hasn't. No analytics we have access too nor the eye test says he's been elite at any point. Plus defender? No doubt.

Additionally, you can keep saying Arcia has 4yrs of MLB experience but he actually doesn't. He played 2 months in 2016, all of 2017, most of 2018, half of 2019. That amounts to around 2.75 seasons worth of MLB baseball. Also, you're intentionally refusing to mention that Dubon was going to be our starting SS LAST May, when Arcia had a grand total of 1.5yrs MLB experience then lost an entire season with the ACL injury. So you can continue to harp on the 4yr difference when in reality, if there was no injury, it would have been 1.5yrs - you can stop trying sway people into thinking he's just been sitting in the minors the past 1.5yrs padding his stats when he missed all last year due to injury then of course they're going to keep him in AAA to get reacclimated due to the injury. Dubon, to start AAA last year at 3.5yrs young for level, posted 343 BA with 922 OPS. Arcia, when sent down to AAA last year was 3.5yrs young for level, posted a 341 BA with 911 OPS. Almost identical. So you and others on here are now going to think that validates your opinion that they're similar bats, right? Except lets now factor in that Arcia posted those numbers already having 1.75yrs straight MLB experience while Dubon spent the previous year splitting AA/AAA. Doesn't speak to highly of Arcia's bat compared to Dubon's, does it?

And, no, saying high contact/low K isn't redundant. High contact refers to the ability to not only put the ball in play but also put the bat on the ball to foul pitches off. Arcia is a relatively high contact bat and always has been but he still K's 20% of the time. His bat to ball/contact skills don't match Dubon. His K rate also rose every level he advanced in the minors while Dubon's stayed the same with advancement. Arcia will walk more than Dubon, most likely, but part of that is Dubon's approach. If he sees a pitch he likes early in the count he's attacking and due to his high bat to ball/contact skills he's typically putting it in play so it's difficult to draw more walks when that happens.

No, you don't ignore Dubon's minor league numbers because Arcia was in MLB. That's straight absurdity. You might as well say we should ignore Hiura as a prospect because he was in college while Arcia was in MLB.


Last edited by Wahoo Maniac on July 09, 2019, 1:38 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Dubon being called up
#55

Posted: July 09, 2019, 1:37 PM Post
Posts: 1219
I think wahoo maniac just threw his hat into the ring as an author of the Great American Novel

Dubon vs Arcia


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Offline  Re: Dubon being called up
#56

Posted: July 09, 2019, 1:39 PM Post
Posts: 93
Location: Mequon
willie key said:
I think wahoo maniac just threw his hat into the ring as an author of the Great American Novel

Dubon vs Arcia

Novel drops this Fall


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Offline  Re: Dubon being called up
#57

Posted: July 09, 2019, 1:40 PM Post
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"He was the best of shortstops, he was the worst of shortstops..."

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Dubon being called up
#58

Posted: July 09, 2019, 1:43 PM Post
Posts: 1219
Wahoo Maniac said:
willie key said:
I think wahoo maniac just threw his hat into the ring as an author of the Great American Novel

Dubon vs Arcia

Novel drops this Fall



That’s quicker than the dude who writes game of thrones books at least


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Online  Re: Dubon being called up
#59

Posted: July 09, 2019, 1:52 PM Post
Posts: 11948
Wahoo Maniac said:
Yes, those extra 2 weeks Dubon's been breathing longer than Arcia is a massive difference maker. You're right!

TigerUppercut I assumed was referring to age relative to level because one's actual age at a certain level is irrelevant so why even refer to that? For example, if Arcia was 20yrs old in AA and the league average age was 20yrs old while Dubon was 20yrs old in AA but the league average age was 22yrs old then what would you conclude? You "should" conclude that Dubon is facing tougher competition from older, more experienced/advanced players on average and factor that into the evaluation process. You do realize that's how it works, right???

Arcia is a glove first player, always has been. His bat profile was always he "might" be an average hitter with some pop but he he's a plus SS having a plus arm whereas Dubon's bat profile has always been above avg to plus (hitting for a high BA) playing average+ defense at SS with a solid arm (he'd be better at 2b though given how his range/arm plays). Get the difference? That being Arcia was most likely going to be a below-average hitter (spoiler: he is) but could be average if reaches his potential while Dubon profiles to hit for a high BA being an above avg/plus bat. Profile (approach is part of that) and production at age relative to level are things that matter.

Also, Dubon was playing HS ball in the states when Arcia was playing pro ball in Venezuala, which allowed him to head straight to A ball to start the season whereas a guy like Dubon enters rookie ball - that's common. That difference played a role in each player's development. Not every player develops at the same pace either. Not every team pushes their prospects forward at the same pace. Not every org has other/better players who will move quicker ahead of them taking a spot (Dubon's played same positions alongside some great talents in Boston as well as others who've made it to MLB while Arcia had nobody around him). If Arcia had a solid glove instead of winning the GG in AA he most certainly wouldn't have been up. But when you have the defensive ability he does you're going to be called up early regardless of whether or not the bat still needs more development, especially when he was able to walk right into the starting role in MLB. To answer your question, if Arcia repeated each level (A+/AA/AAA) where he was now at the age relative to level that Dubon was at, which you would have seen is 0.5-1yr difference, I've no idea if his numbers drastically improve. Given his profile, which has been spot on, I doubt it. Maybe he hits the same, maybe he hits slightly worse, maybe he hits slightly better.

Ever think Arcia was just overrated? He went from being unranked after A ball to just sneeking inside the Top 100 after A+ to Top 10 after AA. He went from a "below average" bat projection to an "average" bat projection after he posted his 120+ wrc+ being 4yrs young for level in A+ and AA. Think about that - 4yrs young posting good numbers offensively and scouts still said he was going to max out as an average hitter in MLB. And even with him winning the GG in AA that doesn't mean he was going to be a GG caliber player. He's been a plus defender until this year but everyone keeps saying he's been elite - no he hasn't. No analytics we have access too nor the eye test says he's been elite at any point. Plus defender? No doubt.

Additionally, you can keep saying Arcia has 4yrs of MLB experience but he actually doesn't. He played 2 months in 2016, all of 2017, most of 2018, half of 2019. That amounts to around 2.75 seasons worth of MLB baseball. Also, you're intentionally refusing to mention that Dubon was going to be our starting SS LAST May, when Arcia had a grand total of 1.5yrs MLB experience then lost an entire season with the ACL injury. So you can continue to harp on the 4yr difference when in reality, if there was no injury, it would have been 1.5yrs - you can stop trying sway people into thinking he's just been sitting in the minors the past 1.5yrs padding his stats when he missed all last year due to injury then of course they're going to keep him in AAA to get reacclimated due to the injury. Dubon, to start AAA last year at 3.5yrs young for level, posted 343 BA with 922 OPS. Arcia, when sent down to AAA last year was 3.5yrs young for level, posted a 341 BA with 911 OPS. Almost identical. So you and others on here are now going to think that validates your opinion that they're similar bats, right? Except lets now factor in that Arcia posted those numbers already having 1.75yrs straight MLB experience while Dubon spent the previous year splitting AA/AAA. Doesn't speak to highly of Arcia's bat compared to Dubon's, does it?

And, no, saying high contact/low K isn't redundant. High contact refers to the ability to not only put the ball in play but also put the bat on the ball to foul pitches off. Arcia is a relatively high contact bat and always has been but he still K's 20% of the time. His bat to ball/contact skills don't match Dubon. His K rate also rose every level he advanced in the minors while Dubon's stayed the same with advancement. Arcia will walk more than Dubon, most likely, but part of that is Dubon's approach. If he sees a pitch he likes early in the count he's attacking and due to his high bat to ball/contact skills he's typically putting it in play so it's difficult to draw more walks when that happens.

No, you don't ignore Dubon's minor league numbers because Arcia was in MLB. That's straight absurdity. You might as well say we should ignore Hiura as a prospect because he was in college while Arcia was in MLB.


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Offline  Re: Dubon being called up
#60

Posted: July 10, 2019, 6:28 AM Post
Posts: 1392
I'm not sure if this is War in piece of something someone who is really interested in Math from the U of M wrote out in a shack in Montana!

TigerUppercut I assumed was referring to age relative to level because one's actual age at a certain level is irrelevant so why even refer to that? For example, if Arcia was 20yrs old in AA and the league average age was 20yrs old while Dubon was 20yrs old in AA but the league average age was 22yrs old then what would you conclude? You "should" conclude that Dubon is facing tougher competition from older, more experienced/advanced players on average and factor that into the evaluation process. You do realize that's how it works, right???


It is? The age a player is relative to what level he's at is "irrelevant?" Huh. You may be the only person that believes that. I think the age you're at each level is rather telling. But maybe I'm weird like that.

I guess I'm just weird and I take what someone says at face value. For instance, if you say Player A was 20 when they went through AA and player B was 24, that's pretty straight forward. I don't find that irrelevant and then go and look at what BBreference says the average age of all the other players in the league were.

But...the most important thing, you're just making up hypotheticals. They weren't both the same age the first time in AA and the average age when Arcia was in AA to when Dubon was in AA didn't just magically jump by two years.

You DO realize how that works.....right?

Arcia is a glove first player, always has been. His bat profile was always he "might" be an average hitter with some pop but he he's a plus SS having a plus arm whereas Dubon's bat profile has always been above avg to plus (hitting for a high BA) playing average+ defense at SS with a solid arm (he'd be better at 2b though given how his range/arm plays). Get the difference? That being Arcia was most likely going to be a below-average hitter (spoiler: he is) but could be average if reaches his potential while Dubon profiles to hit for a high BA being an above avg/plus bat. Profile (approach is part of that) and production at age relative to level are things that matter.


WRONG----MLB Pipeline's scouting report on Arcia.

https://www.mlb.com/news/scouting-repor ... -153628114

This was 4 years ago when he was finishing up his AA year just before he was called up to the big leagues. Oh, and again, he's YOUNGER than Dubon.

Strengths
At one point, scouts may have viewed Arcia as a defense-first shortstop. His good hitting experience in the 2014 Venezuelan Winter League provided the first clues of his evident offensive maturation.
At Double-A Biloxi this past year, Arcia hit .307, the best average of his career. He notched 37 doubles and eight home runs. Both were career bests. Arcia should be viewed as a complete player capable of providing offense as well as stellar defense at shortstop.
His on-base percentage and his ability to consistently "make things happen" have positioned Arcia as a promising top prospect.
Arcia completes his multiple-tool offerings with good speed. He is capable of stealing 20 or more bases annually. In addition, he is able to score runs by taking an extra base when appropriate.

See, this brings us back to the fact that Dubon's prospect ranking keeps going up(though never actually hitting 100) over the FOUR SEASONS since Arcia became a major league player.

Also, Dubon was playing HS ball in the states when Arcia was playing pro ball in Venezuala, which allowed him to head straight to A ball to start the season whereas a guy like Dubon enters rookie ball - that's common. That difference played a role in each player's development. Not every player develops at the same pace either. Not every team pushes their prospects forward at the same pace. Not every org has other/better players who will move quicker ahead of them taking a spot (Dubon's played same positions alongside some great talents in Boston as well as others who've made it to MLB while Arcia had nobody around him).


Thanks for the info on how not everyone develops at the same age. Truly innovating stuff.

Also; So what? Not only has it been a few years since Dubon was in Boston's farm system, 2016 to be exact, but who cares about the players playing around you? Are we evaluating team record or individual performance? Baseball is essentially an individual sport. It's a series of individual matchup's. What other prospects happened to play in Boston have zero to do with anything.


If Arcia had a solid glove instead of winning the GG in AA he most certainly wouldn't have been up. But when you have the defensive ability he does you're going to be called up early regardless of whether or not the bat still needs more development, especially when he was able to walk right into the starting role in MLB. To answer your question, if Arcia repeated each level (A+/AA/AAA) where he was now at the age relative to level that Dubon was at, which you would have seen is 0.5-1yr difference, I've no idea if his numbers drastically improve. Given his profile, which has been spot on, I doubt it. Maybe he hits the same, maybe he hits slightly worse, maybe he hits slightly better.



Here's what we DON'T have to guess about. Arcia went through the minors and reached the majors four years earlier than Dubon and put up similar offensive numbers.

On top of that, he was a elite defensive SS. You seem really intent on guessing how much younger he would have likely been compared to the average player along the way, but it's really irrelevant as Dubon and Arcia are the same age(well, actually, Dubon is older).
Ever think Arcia was just overrated?


Nope. Ever think just maybe you're overrating Dubon given he's had an extra 4 years in the minors to improve his offensive line while Arcia's played SS for a team that was 1 win away from a WS(and excelled in that post-season)?
He went from being unranked after A ball to just sneeking inside the Top 100 after A+ to Top 10 after AA.


Ok, so when he was 19 and performing extremely well in A ball he became a top 100 prospect at 19 and then after he had a big year at AA he moved up into the top 10 at 20 years old.


But this is all about Dubon and Arcia, right? So somehow Arcia gets knocked for being ranked in the top 10 among prospects when he was 20....this means what exactly? Arcia .307/.347/.453 in AA. Yeah, I get your point. A GG'er who puts up a line as good as any Dubon has MUST have been overrated?

Ever think you're just trying WAAAY to hard to make facts that don't fit some strange narrative? So a no-doubt defensive stud puts up back to back really good offensive years and he's overrated?

Think about that - 4yrs young posting good numbers offensively and scouts still said he was going to max out as an average hitter in MLB.


Lets use MLB Pipeline, hmm?
19 years old Arcia
Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 35 | Run: 55 | Arm: 60 | Field: 60 | Overall: 60
24 year old Dubon
Hit: 55 | Power: 35 | Run: 55 | Arm: 55 | Field: 50 | Overall: 50

Well Gee, tell me more about what the scouts were saying? Don't...you know, actually use facts, just tell me what "the scouts" as though they're a single entity had to say about each player?

And then what did that 19 year old do? He went and raked in AA and in the Fall League.

19 year old Dubon was playing a third of a season in LowA ball.

Additionally, you can keep saying Arcia has 4yrs of MLB experience but he actually doesn't. He played 2 months in 2016, all of 2017, most of 2018, half of 2019. That amounts to around 2.75 seasons worth of MLB baseball.


Had I "kept" saying that? Ok, came up four SEASONS ago and became the starting SS for the Brewers and has continued to hold that job in the four SEASONS since.

How many seasons has Dubon?

Also, you're intentionally refusing to mention that Dubon was going to be our starting SS LAST May, when Arcia had a grand total of 1.5yrs MLB experience then lost an entire season with the ACL injury.



Not intentionally doing anything, I'm dealing in facts. You're the one who's guessing that Dubon would have been called up and that he then automatically WOULD have held the job.

Yet a year later and when he does finally get the call, the Manager has already said he's going to be going back down. So...ya sure he was going to be the Starting SS last year?? And if so, mind if I borrow that crystal ball. I'd LOVE to check the lottery numbers for this week.


I see one dealing in fact, one in supposition and obfuscation. I'm just telling you what happened. You're trying to create excuses and reasons for why that happened.
So you can continue to harp on the 4yr difference when in reality, if there was no injury, it would have been 1.5yrs


So I can stop stating facts because you can imagine a different scenario playing out! Well! Fantastic! I think you're looking for fantasy baseball where players don't get injured and you can pretend things are different than they are.

What REALLY happened was Dubon was never called up, he did get hurt, but he STILL wasn't called up after a full half of a YEAR getting "acclimated" to AAA...and yet they've already said he's still going back down.

you can stop trying sway people into thinking he's just been sitting in the minors the past 1.5yrs padding his stats when he missed all last year due to injury then of course they're going to keep him in AAA to get reacclimated due to the injury.



Wow...you really seem to place a high value on my powers of persuasion. Again, I'm just simply stating FACTS. You're the one engaging in "what if's," and what WOULD have happened if these things hadn't happened. I'm just simply telling you what did. And you don't like it because it doesn't fit your narrative.

Oh, and it's 4 seasons. Arcia's spent parts of 4 SEASONS in the big leagues while Dubon has one AB. The years vs seasons things seems really bothersome to you because it doesn't support your case, right? And again, Dubon is older. So then if Dubon is so much better offensively than Arcia, wouldn't you think their career minor league stats would represent that?

I mean, YOU SAID, Arcia was only called up because of his glove. This of course setting aside that in 2015 Arcia's "hit tool" was a 50 and Dubon's "hit tool" 4 years later is a 55.

Yet....301/.348/.424 .772 OPS
vs .284/.342 /.407 .749 OPS

One of these two was in the big leagues at age 21 and is a FAR superior defensive player.
The other is older, inferior defensively and has played almost exclusively in the minors through age 24.

Kinda tells a story, doesn't it?


you can stop trying sway people into thinking he's just been sitting in the minors the past 1.5yrs padding his stats when he missed all last year due to injury then of course they're going to keep him in AAA to get reacclimated due to the injury. Dubon, to start AAA last year at 3.5yrs young for level, posted 343 BA with 922 OPS. Arcia, when sent down to AAA last year was 3.5yrs young for level, posted a 341 BA with 911 OPS. Almost identical. So you and others on here are now going to think that validates your opinion that they're similar bats, right? Except lets now factor in that Arcia posted those numbers already having 1.75yrs straight MLB experience while Dubon spent the previous year splitting AA/AAA. Doesn't speak to highly of Arcia's bat compared to Dubon's, does it?



I really don't know what point you're making here OTHER than when Arcia was sent down for a short stretch, he hit as well as the VASTLY superior offensive weapon that is Dubon.

And yet using your logic(if you really want to call it that) you use his major league production and that's somehow a plus for Dubon? Hmm...sound logic. The short little stint over the last 4 seasons they were at the same level, Arcia showed he was every bit as good as Dubon, even if it was a small sample size, but he gets knocked for being respected enough to get called up and Dubon somehow gets credit for NOT making it to the majors yet?

And, no, saying high contact/low K isn't redundant.


Sure it is.

His K rate also rose every level he advanced in the minors while Dubon's stayed the same with advancement.



Arcia struck out 73 times in 552 PA's at age 20 in AA
Dubon struck out 76 times in 545 PA's at age 22 split between AA and AAA.

Tell me how much better Dubon's K rate was!!!
His K rate also rose every level he advanced in the minors while Dubon's stayed the same with advancement. Arcia will walk more than Dubon, most likely, but part of that is Dubon's approach. If he sees a pitch he likes early in the count he's attacking and due to his high bat to ball/contact skills he's typically putting it in play so it's difficult to draw more walks when that happens.


Yeah, it raised so much that despite being TWO YEARS younger than Dubon, he had a lower K rate than Dubon had.

Who are you arguing for again?

And now you're saying Arcia will walk more, but it's only because of Dubon's magical bat to ball skills and as we all know, it's so tough to walk when you just always hit he ball. The only problem of course is that Arcia actually struck out less when he was 20 in AA than Dubon when he was 22 in AA/AAA.

So again, Dubon higher K rate but he'll walk less, but it's alright because his bat to ball skills are SO great.


This is where I ask the question, how many games have you actually watched Dubon play in person? Never get an answer to these questions.
No, you don't ignore Dubon's minor league numbers because Arcia was in MLB. That's straight absurdity. You might as well say we should ignore Hiura as a prospect because he was in college while Arcia was in MLB.



No, what's "straight absurdity" is how you try to deflect everything.

The minor league statistics are roughly equal. This despite the fact that Arcia was in the big leagues and has 1450 PA's in the majors while the OLDER Dubon has 1.

Yes, those extra 2 weeks Dubon's been breathing longer than Arcia is a massive difference maker. You're right!




STUNNED!! Stunned I tell ya that this went right over your head. Now...see the point HERE was the OLDER player was the one who had yet to reach the big leagues until he finally got AN AB(and they've already announced he'd be going back down) while the YOUNGER of the two is the guy who's spent part of the last 4 seasons in the big leagues.


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