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Dubon being called up

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Offline  Re: Dubon being called up
#61

Posted: July 10, 2019, 6:43 AM Post
Posts: 1232
PeaveyFury said:
trwi7 said:
Above replacement level is a pretty low bar to set and he was -0.4 last year so he wasn't above replacement level either. He's at 0.9 WAR in 1,450 plate appearances in his career which isn't that much better than replacement level.


Baseball Reference has him at 0.1 WAR for 2018, FWIW.

And again, it goes back to how you define productive. He’s 24 and hasn’t been below replacement level in his full seasons in MLB. I think expecting Dubon to be more “productive” than that should be viewed with some skepticism.



I question defensive WAR for MIF'ers more and more with all the shifting that goes on. I believe you can see that Arcia is an elite defender.

I hope Dubon can be this vastly superior player that Maniac would like us to believe, but there's not a whole lot to believe that's the case at this point beyond hope. HOPING that he's going to come up and have one of those really nice stretches before the league catches up to him and provide a boost.

I mean...if the Brewers thought he was that good, wouldn't have have gotten the call instead of the career journeyman?

I think it's pretty fair to be skeptical that he's going to be an upgrade over Arcia myself...but more I just think it's a big comical the excuses made for one player and the reasons for dismissing another.


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Offline  Re: Dubon being called up
#62

Posted: July 10, 2019, 7:57 AM Post
Posts: 17380
It's fair to be skeptical of Dubon being an upgrade over Arcia. But it seems like a good time to remind those who often point to the defensive skills of Arcia of this.

https://twitter.com/AdamMcCalvy/status/ ... 27168?s=19

Arcia's own manager hasn't been happy with his defense. So much so, that they brought up Saladino, who has stolen a great deal of playing time from Arcia since his callup, and surely isn't here for his bat.


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Offline  Re: Dubon being called up
#63

Posted: July 10, 2019, 8:03 AM Post
Posts: 913
OnTheBlack said:
I question defensive WAR for MIF'ers more and more with all the shifting that goes on. I believe you can see that Arcia is an elite defender.


What aspect of DRS, UZR and FRAA and their handling of shifting leads to Arcia's defense being misrepresented relative to his peers? Even peers on teams that shift as much as the Brewers? And since the metrics handle shifting, or more specifically which plays are made by which position as a result of shifting, differently, which one handles it best and thus would represent his defense the best?


To me there are two different questions; is Arcia an elite defender? and is Arcia an elite defender at shortstop? I think at least some of the disagreement about Arcia's defense comes from people discussing these two questions interchangeably, when to me they are quite different. The other aspect is looking at his defensive ability or defensive "tools" on the one hand, and actual performance on defense on the other. Arcia undeniably has the tools to be an excellent defender, but does it result in a corresponding ability to convert batted balls into outs?


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Offline  Re: Dubon being called up
#64

Posted: July 10, 2019, 8:31 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 1971
Lathund said:
OnTheBlack said:
I question defensive WAR for MIF'ers more and more with all the shifting that goes on. I believe you can see that Arcia is an elite defender.


What aspect of DRS, UZR and FRAA and their handling of shifting leads to Arcia's defense being misrepresented relative to his peers? Even peers on teams that shift as much as the Brewers? And since the metrics handle shifting, or more specifically which plays are made by which position as a result of shifting, differently, which one handles it best and thus would represent his defense the best?


To me there are two different questions; is Arcia an elite defender? and is Arcia an elite defender at shortstop? I think at least some of the disagreement about Arcia's defense comes from people discussing these two questions interchangeably, when to me they are quite different. The other aspect is looking at his defensive ability or defensive "tools" on the one hand, and actual performance on defense on the other. Arcia undeniably has the tools to be an excellent defender, but does it result in a corresponding ability to convert batted balls into outs?


I think this is the big one. There have been too many times this year where I thought "Arcia should have made that play" and not nearly enough times this year where I thought "WOW! I can't believe he made that play!" Now, a lot of that is probably being spoiled by expectations, so numbers could/should back that up those statements if possible.


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Online  Re: Dubon being called up
#65

Posted: July 10, 2019, 8:44 AM Post
Posts: 1988
Offensively Arcia has bad mechanics, I think we all know this already. He has the most irritating left foot I’ve ever seen. Defensively I agree with the brewers, underperforming his ability. Period. Moving forward can he change? I’m not taking that chance if I’m the brewers.

Haven’t seen Dubon, outside of the AB vs Vazquez, but I saw more hitting skill in that AB than I’ve seen from Arcia in 300+ games.


Last edited by Brew crew 92 on July 10, 2019, 11:39 AM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Dubon being called up
#66

Posted: July 10, 2019, 9:20 AM Post
Posts: 93
Location: Mequon
OnTheBlack said:
I'm not sure if this is War in piece of something someone who is really interested in Math from the U of M wrote out in a shack in Montana!

TigerUppercut I assumed was referring to age relative to level because one's actual age at a certain level is irrelevant so why even refer to that? For example, if Arcia was 20yrs old in AA and the league average age was 20yrs old while Dubon was 20yrs old in AA but the league average age was 22yrs old then what would you conclude? You "should" conclude that Dubon is facing tougher competition from older, more experienced/advanced players on average and factor that into the evaluation process. You do realize that's how it works, right???


It is? The age a player is relative to what level he's at is "irrelevant?" Huh. You may be the only person that believes that. I think the age you're at each level is rather telling. But maybe I'm weird like that.

I literally stopped reading your entire response after your first sentence because if this is how you're starting it then the rest is a waste of my time. Just wow...

What matters is how many years young you are for the level and not your actual age at that level. My example above is clear as day. TigerUppercut said Dubon was 2yrs older for every level than Arcia. I disagreed and stated why. The problem is you seem to think that Arcia being 20 at some level is more important than what his age is relative to the others in that league that particular season.


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Offline  Re: Dubon being called up
#67

Posted: July 10, 2019, 10:07 AM Post
Posts: 93
Location: Mequon
Brew crew 92 said:
Offensively Arcia has bad mechanics, I think we all know this already. He has the most irritating right foot I’ve ever seen. Defensively I agree with the brewers, underperforming his ability. Period. Moving forward can he change? I’m not taking that chance if I’m the brewers.

Haven’t seen Dubon, outside of the AB vs Vazquez, but I saw more hitting skill in that AB than I’ve seen from Arcia in 300+ games.

And it's clear as day. Also clear as day is Arcia isn't remotely close to being an elite defender. If he was than Saladino wouldn't have been called up with Perez being DFA'd. You can live with Arcia's insanely inconsistent bat if he's playing elite defense. But he's not.

Prior to Dubon tearing his ACL (May 2018) his grades were 55/40/60/55/55. It mirrors his performance at every level as well.
That's easy Top 150 but because he wasn't a 1st/2nd rd pick or touted international signing he gets looked over. It's fair for his power/run/fielding grades to drop this year given you have to wait and see how the injury affects his play but it appears that he's right back where he left off. Since May 9 he's slashing 336/373/938 (124 wrc+) lowering his K rate to 12.7%.

Dubon has 6yrs cheap control and is ready to take over at SS. Arcia has 3.5yrs left, was sent to AAA twice last year and 2.5 months into this season Saladino was called up to take away half his starts thus far. I still think Arcia is a starting MLB SS. I just don't think he should be our starting SS moving forward given Dubon is ready.


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Offline  Re: Dubon being called up
#68

Posted: July 10, 2019, 11:29 AM Post
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Global Moderator
Posts: 7954
Wahoo Maniac said:
Brew crew 92 said:
Offensively Arcia has bad mechanics, I think we all know this already. He has the most irritating right foot I’ve ever seen. Defensively I agree with the brewers, underperforming his ability. Period. Moving forward can he change? I’m not taking that chance if I’m the brewers.

Haven’t seen Dubon, outside of the AB vs Vazquez, but I saw more hitting skill in that AB than I’ve seen from Arcia in 300+ games.

And it's clear as day. Also clear as day is Arcia isn't remotely close to being an elite defender. If he was than Saladino wouldn't have been called up with Perez being DFA'd. You can live with Arcia's insanely inconsistent bat if he's playing elite defense. But he's not.

Prior to Dubon tearing his ACL (May 2018) his grades were 55/40/60/55/55. It mirrors his performance at every level as well.
That's easy Top 150 but because he wasn't a 1st/2nd rd pick or touted international signing he gets looked over. It's fair for his power/run/fielding grades to drop this year given you have to wait and see how the injury affects his play but it appears that he's right back where he left off. Since May 9 he's slashing 336/373/938 (124 wrc+) lowering his K rate to 12.7%.

Dubon has 6yrs cheap control and is ready to take over at SS. Arcia has 3.5yrs left, was sent to AAA twice last year and 2.5 months into this season Saladino was called up to take away half his starts thus far. I still think Arcia is a starting MLB SS. I just don't think he should be our starting SS moving forward given Dubon is ready.


I just don't see Arcia as being the problem with our offense this year. He's a SS who plays good (not elite this year) defense and has an OPS over .700. Though possible, I doubt that a rookie middle IF not named Hiura is going to outproduce that in their first big league stint.


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Offline  Re: Dubon being called up
#69

Posted: July 10, 2019, 11:44 AM Post
Posts: 93
Location: Mequon
PeaveyFury said:
Wahoo Maniac said:
Brew crew 92 said:
Offensively Arcia has bad mechanics, I think we all know this already. He has the most irritating right foot I’ve ever seen. Defensively I agree with the brewers, underperforming his ability. Period. Moving forward can he change? I’m not taking that chance if I’m the brewers.

Haven’t seen Dubon, outside of the AB vs Vazquez, but I saw more hitting skill in that AB than I’ve seen from Arcia in 300+ games.

And it's clear as day. Also clear as day is Arcia isn't remotely close to being an elite defender. If he was than Saladino wouldn't have been called up with Perez being DFA'd. You can live with Arcia's insanely inconsistent bat if he's playing elite defense. But he's not.

Prior to Dubon tearing his ACL (May 2018) his grades were 55/40/60/55/55. It mirrors his performance at every level as well.
That's easy Top 150 but because he wasn't a 1st/2nd rd pick or touted international signing he gets looked over. It's fair for his power/run/fielding grades to drop this year given you have to wait and see how the injury affects his play but it appears that he's right back where he left off. Since May 9 he's slashing 336/373/938 (124 wrc+) lowering his K rate to 12.7%.

Dubon has 6yrs cheap control and is ready to take over at SS. Arcia has 3.5yrs left, was sent to AAA twice last year and 2.5 months into this season Saladino was called up to take away half his starts thus far. I still think Arcia is a starting MLB SS. I just don't think he should be our starting SS moving forward given Dubon is ready.


I just don't see Arcia as being the problem with our offense this year. He's a SS who plays good (not elite this year) defense and has an OPS over .700. Though possible, I doubt that a rookie middle IF not named Hiura is going to outproduce that in their first big league stint.

If Arcia was playing good defense then Saladino would still be in AAA. People need to start dealing with the reality that Arcia is an average defender at SS at this point. And a 700 OPS is a very low bar, especially considering he's very inconsistent. It wasn't long ago that Perez was exceeding 700.


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Online  Re: Dubon being called up
#70

Posted: July 10, 2019, 11:55 AM Post
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Posts: 12112
Location: Milwaukee, WI
Arcia will probably flourish elsewhere. Might as well play Dubon and move Arcia as Arcia is the new player Counsell loves to put in the doghouse.


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Offline  Re: Dubon being called up
#71

Posted: July 10, 2019, 12:28 PM Post
Posts: 93
Location: Mequon
Brew4U said:
Arcia will probably flourish elsewhere. Might as well play Dubon and move Arcia as Arcia is the new player Counsell loves to put in the doghouse.

I see Arcia as someone who's not going to figure it out and be consistent until the final year of his rookie contract or shortly after it similar to Andrus.


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Offline  Re: Dubon being called up
#72

Posted: July 10, 2019, 1:29 PM Post
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Posts: 3467
Arcia isn't the problem with our offense this year, that trophy is more of a Stanley Cup passed around among Cain, Aguilar and Shaw. But that doesn't mean Arcia is good.

I think the initial honeymoon over his defense is ending and we are left with what appears to be a mediocre player. That doesn't mean it'll be what he is forever, but that is what he's been, and what he is right now. Kinda feel the same about Arcia as I do about Braun right now. I'm not under any delusion that either is more than what they are. They're not very good, but if the guys above weren't absolutely dreadful and we had a pitching staff we'd probably have 55 wins and nobody would really care.


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Offline  Re: Dubon being called up
#73

Posted: July 10, 2019, 1:51 PM Post
Posts: 93
Location: Mequon
OldSchoolSnapper said:
Arcia isn't the problem with our offense this year, that trophy is more of a Stanley Cup passed around among Cain, Aguilar and Shaw. But that doesn't mean Arcia is good.

I think the initial honeymoon over his defense is ending and we are left with what appears to be a mediocre player. That doesn't mean it'll be what he is forever, but that is what he's been, and what he is right now. Kinda feel the same about Arcia as I do about Braun right now. I'm not under any delusion that either is more than what they are. They're not very good, but if the guys above weren't absolutely dreadful and we had a pitching staff we'd probably have 55 wins and nobody would really care.

Disagree as I'd still care. The number of wins a team has is irrelevant to me. If a change needs to be made you make it. If Arcia was playing plus defense his inconsistent bat can be overlooked but this isn't the case. You upgrade where you can, when you can.


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Offline  Re: Dubon being called up
#74

Posted: July 10, 2019, 2:28 PM Post
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Posts: 3467
Well yeah, but they haven't exactly had a replacement for Arcia. Dubon is probably gonna be about the same guy. I don't mind him getting some time, but I don't think he's a long term solution to the Arcia problem.

And I'm sorry, but "the number of wins is irrelevant" is a silly statement. If you are a 96-win team there is much less urgency to replace a developing player if you think he's going to be really good. When your offense is struggling and you're a supposed title contender mulling around .500 there is not a lot of time to wait it out with poor performers. If we're being honest this season is probably already over if they play in any other division. Just replacing guys for the sake of replacing them isn't really productive if there's nobody better.


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Offline  Re: Dubon being called up
#75

Posted: July 10, 2019, 2:39 PM Post
Posts: 93
Location: Mequon
OldSchoolSnapper said:
Well yeah, but they haven't exactly had a replacement for Arcia. Dubon is probably gonna be about the same guy. I don't mind him getting some time, but I don't think he's a long term solution to the Arcia problem.

And I'm sorry, but "the number of wins is irrelevant" is a silly statement. If you are a 96-win team there is much less urgency to replace a developing player if you think he's going to be really good. When your offense is struggling and you're a supposed title contender mulling around .500 there is not a lot of time to wait it out with poor performers. If we're being honest this season is probably already over if they play in any other division. Just replacing guys for the sake of replacing them isn't really productive if there's nobody better.

But do the Brewers currently think Arcia is going to be “really good”? Brewers don’t have a replacement? Dubon was literally replacing Arcia last May before he had a significant knee injury. The Brewers won 96 games last year and Arcia was demoted twice. Talk about silly statements. He’s essentially splitting time with Saladino at the moment.

What exactly is it about Dubon that people see the next Perez and only that???


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Offline  Re: Dubon being called up
#76

Posted: July 10, 2019, 3:01 PM Post
Posts: 10833
I don't see Dubon being anything of use. You better buy into his power being something or he is hot garbage. His OBP, despite having a .301 BA at AAA over his career, is just .336. That is horrendous when you consider Dubon is almost surely not a .300 guy at the MLB level and probably more like .275 guy generously optimistic. If he doesn't have MLB power (and quite a bit at that) that translates then he is probably a 2018 Arcia clone.

I don't think Dubon can slug .500 nor is .300 for a batting average very realistic in my opinion. I just don't really buy it. I don't care if he gets a chance because Arcia really isn't providing much, but I won't expect him to really be any kind of answer.


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Offline  Re: Dubon being called up
#77

Posted: July 10, 2019, 3:27 PM Post
Posts: 3573
Wahoo Maniac said:
OldSchoolSnapper said:
Arcia isn't the problem with our offense this year, that trophy is more of a Stanley Cup passed around among Cain, Aguilar and Shaw. But that doesn't mean Arcia is good.

I think the initial honeymoon over his defense is ending and we are left with what appears to be a mediocre player. That doesn't mean it'll be what he is forever, but that is what he's been, and what he is right now. Kinda feel the same about Arcia as I do about Braun right now. I'm not under any delusion that either is more than what they are. They're not very good, but if the guys above weren't absolutely dreadful and we had a pitching staff we'd probably have 55 wins and nobody would really care.

Disagree as I'd still care. The number of wins a team has is irrelevant to me. If a change needs to be made you make it. If Arcia was playing plus defense his inconsistent bat can be overlooked but this isn't the case. You upgrade where you can, when you can.



Really? So you don't care if a team has 116 wins or 69 wins? Hmm...I suspect that's nonsense!

And Arcia is absolutely still playing plus defense, hitting for power, though he is very inconsistent.

But this is a good question. "You upgrade where you can when you can." Well, Brandon Woodruff is not one of the top 5 starting pitchers in baseball! I don't care how good he's doing, they need to upgrade?


Seriously though, OBVIOUSLY OldschoolSnapper is right. If Cain, Shaw and Aguilar were performing like they did last year and Chacin, Burnes were meeting expectations, and our BP wasn't hit by the injury bug...or really just any one of those, NOBODY would care about our glove-first SS who's on pace for about 25 Hr's and has an OPS around .700. Especially since I don't think anyone wants to give up the assets it'd cost to actually find a real improvement.


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Online  Re: Dubon being called up
#78

Posted: July 10, 2019, 3:39 PM Post
Posts: 1988
HiAndTight said:
Wahoo Maniac said:
OldSchoolSnapper said:
Arcia isn't the problem with our offense this year, that trophy is more of a Stanley Cup passed around among Cain, Aguilar and Shaw. But that doesn't mean Arcia is good.

I think the initial honeymoon over his defense is ending and we are left with what appears to be a mediocre player. That doesn't mean it'll be what he is forever, but that is what he's been, and what he is right now. Kinda feel the same about Arcia as I do about Braun right now. I'm not under any delusion that either is more than what they are. They're not very good, but if the guys above weren't absolutely dreadful and we had a pitching staff we'd probably have 55 wins and nobody would really care.

Disagree as I'd still care. The number of wins a team has is irrelevant to me. If a change needs to be made you make it. If Arcia was playing plus defense his inconsistent bat can be overlooked but this isn't the case. You upgrade where you can, when you can.



Really? So you don't care if a team has 116 wins or 69 wins? Hmm...I suspect that's nonsense!

And Arcia is absolutely still playing plus defense, hitting for power, though he is very inconsistent.

But this is a good question. "You upgrade where you can when you can." Well, Brandon Woodruff is not one of the top 5 starting pitchers in baseball! I don't care how good he's doing, they need to upgrade?


Seriously though, OBVIOUSLY OldschoolSnapper is right. If Cain, Shaw and Aguilar were performing like they did last year and Chacin, Burnes were meeting expectations, and our BP wasn't hit by the injury bug...or really just any one of those, NOBODY would care about our glove-first SS who's on pace for about 25 Hr's and has an OPS around .700. Especially since I don't think anyone wants to give up the assets it'd cost to actually find a real improvement.


First a statement: THE BALL IS JUICED. Everybody’s on pace for 25 home runs, or more.

Now a question, if Arcia is playing plus defense, why the criticism of his defense from Counsell?


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Offline  Re: Dubon being called up
#79

Posted: July 10, 2019, 3:48 PM Post
Posts: 3573
Wahoo Maniac said:
OldSchoolSnapper said:
Well yeah, but they haven't exactly had a replacement for Arcia. Dubon is probably gonna be about the same guy. I don't mind him getting some time, but I don't think he's a long term solution to the Arcia problem.

And I'm sorry, but "the number of wins is irrelevant" is a silly statement. If you are a 96-win team there is much less urgency to replace a developing player if you think he's going to be really good. When your offense is struggling and you're a supposed title contender mulling around .500 there is not a lot of time to wait it out with poor performers. If we're being honest this season is probably already over if they play in any other division. Just replacing guys for the sake of replacing them isn't really productive if there's nobody better.

But do the Brewers currently think Arcia is going to be “really good”? Brewers don’t have a replacement? Dubon was literally replacing Arcia last May before he had a significant knee injury. The Brewers won 96 games last year and Arcia was demoted twice. Talk about silly statements. He’s essentially splitting time with Saladino at the moment.

What exactly is it about Dubon that people see the next Perez and only that???



Are you one of those people who just overuses the word literally? Because I've seen it a few times now. He LITERALLY was not "replacing" Arcia. He was...and I quote, "working himself into being an option."
That is what was LITERALLY said about him last year, not that he was going to "replace Arcia."


As for the rest, others have weighed in and you've ignored.

How about this.

Man, this is getting to the point where someone just harps on something so pointless for so long about a player, that you actually start to almost root against that player because of the amount of over-hyping and hyperbole going on.

Most of us like Dubon(though some of us less and less with each post). He looks like he could be a decent utility guy. He could probably play a passable SS, but there are a lot of plays that Arcia routinely makes that he likely wouldn't be able to. Hopefully, he'll hit for a decent average, probably less power than Arcia, but most likely not much of an upgrade.

I hope I'm wrong though. I mean, I don't care what this team's record is, I measure winning and losing in my own unique way, ie, how many Honduras natives you have on your team!


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Offline  Re: Dubon being called up
#80

Posted: July 10, 2019, 4:00 PM Post
Posts: 3573
Brew crew 92 said:

First a statement: THE BALL IS JUICED. Everybody’s on pace for 25 home runs, or more.

Now a question, if Arcia is playing plus defense, why the criticism of his defense from Counsell?



First statement, so is that the reason that we don't have 4 aces in our rotation right now like you said we would with another on his way up next year?

Also, no, not everyone is on pace for 25 HR's.

Also, both these statements can be true;
Arcia is playing plus defense AND "it’s not been to the level it was in the past.” That was what Counsell said about him. He wasn't playing AS good as he has in the past.

Also, since this is basically a debate between Arcia and Dubon, Dubon is hitting the same balls Arcia is, just at a lower level and I don't think even the Maurico's father here believe that he's going to defend better than Arcia.


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