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Why do MLB clubs keep making the same mistake?

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Offline  Why do MLB clubs keep making the same mistake?
#1

Posted: July 10, 2019, 2:46 AM Post
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Call it early, call it whatever, but Manny Machado and Bryce Harper are, as I predicted, going to cripple their franchises for another decade just like Carl Crawford, Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Felix Hernandez, Miguel Cabrera and Chris Davis. When are teams going to finally learn that players peak at about 29 and are never worth 10 year deals they sign for the big names? It hardly ever works out and I’m mind blown teams keep falling for the same old tricks...

It honestly feels like 9/10 if you sign a big deal to a 28-29 year old it never works out well


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Offline  Re: Why do MLB clubs keep making the same mistake?
#2

Posted: July 10, 2019, 3:44 AM Post
Posts: 3573
TexasCheesehead said:
Call it early, call it whatever, but Manny Machado and Bryce Harper are, as I predicted, going to cripple their franchises for another decade just like Carl Crawford, Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Felix Hernandez, Miguel Cabrera and Chris Davis. When are teams going to finally learn that players peak at about 29 and are never worth 10 year deals they sign for the big names? It hardly ever works out and I’m mind blown teams keep falling for the same old tricks...

It honestly feels like 9/10 if you sign a big deal to a 28-29 year old it never works out well




Ok, Machado JUST turned 27 a couple days ago and has a 2.2 WAR for the season.
Bryce Harper is all of 26 and has produced 1.6 WAR for the season. Where's the Mike Trout signing? He's older than either and signed for 428 million. Or how about Nolan Arenado? He's the oldest of all 4 and he's got a higher AAV than Trout Machado or Harper?

Please provide the evidence that you've been "proven right" that they're going to "cripple" their franchises? I'll stop you, despite both starting out poorly with their new teams, there isn't any yet. It's ridiculously early.

And this thread...it's ridiculously late. You're not breaking news here by saying that teams shouldn't be handing out the monster 10 year deals to 30 year old players. You're about...well, 10 years late on that.

It MIGHT be the single biggest shift in how free agency has worked since Curt Flood came along.

But here's the thing. Just saying, "long time, lots of money=bad," there's a bit more nuance to it. Trout, Arenado, Harper and Machado are all being paid what they should.

The "lesson" you want teams to "finally" learned, they learned a long time ago. You sign the younger players to the big deals, not the guys who are entering their 30's. That's what's happening. That's not what happened with Pujols and company.


This thread really feels like it should have been posted in 2008 when it was more relevant as it's the EXACT thing teams are trying to avoid.


What I REALLY want to know is when are teams going to figure out that having pitchers throw 33 complete games a year is not good for their arms!


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Offline  Re: Why do MLB clubs keep making the same mistake?
#3

Posted: July 10, 2019, 4:08 AM Post
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There are guys who can still put up numbers into their mid-to-late 30s, but trying to predict who those guys are when they are 28 or even 33 is pretty foolish. It should be a year-by-year thing at that point.


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Offline  Re: Why do MLB clubs keep making the same mistake?
#4

Posted: July 10, 2019, 8:45 AM Post
Posts: 4577
Location: New Berlin, WI
I think teams are getting smarter. The last couple years, we haven't seen as many solid/unspectacular players get big 4-5 year deals. Look specifically at Moose/Grandal...it sounded like they had 2 year deals available but took a 1 year deal with us instead. I'd bet in 2012 they'd get something like 4/60. Harper/Machado are so young that it makes some sense to give them such a long deal. These teams are locking in premium age 26-29 seasons, and paying for it to some degree on the back-end. Also, the GM that signed them will very likely have moved on before they have to deal with the bad side of the deal.

And regarding Trout, others have noted he might be the best baseball player of all-time when all is said and done. The Angels did what they had to do to keep him around, hard to blame them for that.


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