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Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black

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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: July 31, 2019, 6:15 PM Post
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Location: N. Fort Myers, FL
willie key said:
Bulldogboy said:
The implosion of Burnes cannot be overstated. This time last year the dude looked like a top end starter. At the very least a high leverage reliever. To have him become unpitchable is the single most important thing that has happened to this team this season. If it doesn't turn around it's a killer.



I think knebel not pitching one inning was the most important thing. But yes burnes being bad hurt too


It will be great to get Knebel back next year. He, Freddy and Hader at the back of the bullpen could be something special in 2020...


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: July 31, 2019, 6:19 PM Post
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Thurston Fluff said:
Brewcrewin07 said:
Let me ask you, are you satisfied with the rotation right now?? Is it division winning quality to you?? I'll hang up and listen to your answer


The rotational piece you want means trading Hiura. There really isn't anything else in the system worth enough. I do not want to trade Hiura. Basically you are asking for something that isn't possible.


I disagree 100%...No way any of those guys available should cost Hiura. Grisham?? Sure, totally fine with that plus other pieces. That's what I thought they would pull off, using him in a deal for one.[/quote]

Now that we see the price for Greinke and the comments from Stearns on the price of quality starting pitchers I think we can safely assume Grisham was not going to get us a quality starter.[/quote]

I think losing Grisham would haveen be a bigger mistake than losing Dubon big time.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: July 31, 2019, 6:20 PM Post
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So Arcia is bad, but going to be expensive in Arby?

Moving on from him now would be fitting. We missed Escobar's best years. We missed Segura's best years. Why not miss Arcia's best years.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: July 31, 2019, 6:28 PM Post
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Location: Baltimore, MD
Brewcrewin07 said:
Right now, there rotation this weekend against the Cubs is Davies, Gio, Houser...is that supposed to be taken seriously?? That's what you are trotting out there for a series against your division rivals in the middle of a playoff chase?? Lovely..

I don't think adding a couple "Tanner Roarks" was going to "move the needle" in this rotation. They were able to grab Lyles to fill a spot for now at a reasonable cost and probably didn't find the price or need worth it to grab another mediocre pitcher to add to the back of the rotation. A return of Woodruff is going to be a bigger impact than any other reasonable acquisition would have been and when he returns he would have knocked them out of the rotation anyways.

2018-2019 Stats:
Image

Note: ERA isn't everything, but the obtainable pitchers this deadline were a whole pile of meh.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: July 31, 2019, 6:38 PM Post
Posts: 4412
Brewcrewin07 said:
Thurston Fluff said:
When did the term needle mover become so fashionable as a way to describe a single player? It's as if only one big move can make a difference while a combination of little moves can't. Taking all the moves together we are aruguably better than we were yesterday. How isn't that moving the needle?



I will tell you what a needle mover is...To me it's a player or players that you acquire, that almost EVERYONE in baseball or associated with baseball in anyway can clearly see by acquiring that player you made your team better for a pennant race, or into the postseason. They are a proven commodity, very consistent in what they do and will make an impact down the stretch...some examples of this...when the Brewers acquired CC Sabathia=HUGE needle mover...do they make the playoffs without him?? Absolutely NOT. When they acquired Zach Greinke=HUGE needle mover. When those two took the mound every night, you felt like you had a legitimate chance to win every night they pitched. You knew they were VERY unlikely to get shelled(it happens to everyone).

Examples this year...Greinke to the Stros...that pretty much locks them in as the clear American league favorites to at least get to the World Series, and now with that rotation can go head to head with the Dodgers, easily. Shane Greene to the Braves...model of consistency, night in night out when he closes. he comes in, almost always he will finish it out...=Needle movers.

What the Brewers did today are NOT needle moving moves...they can be I guess, but..you hope/wish/cross your fingers that it can. Not enough of an impact for it to be a CLEAR upgrade for anything. especially the rotation.



The Astros were already one of the best teams in the AL much like the Astros circa 1998 before trading for Randy Johnson in his prime. That put them as the clear favorite to win the NL and in perfect position to compete with the Yankees. How much did that needle move? They got beat by the freaking Padres. Johnson did very well in the playoffs. But the needle doesn't move for squat by a single player. It's a concept that doesn't fit a sport where one person has so little impact on the overall product no matter how good he is.
But even if there was a mythical creature that fit that description you don't seem to accept Grisham as the centerpiece of a trade wasn't going to get him.

There needs to be a King Thames version of the bible.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: July 31, 2019, 6:39 PM Post
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TJseven7 said:
So Arcia is bad, but going to be expensive in Arby?

Moving on from him now would be fitting. We missed Escobar's best years. We missed Segura's best years. Why not miss Arcia's best years.

How is Arcia like either of those two? Escobar's defense is elite compared to Arcia. Segura always had a higher ceiling than Arcia and a change of scenery for Jean was probably the best for him given the loss of his child, they aren't comparable at all. Sure, Arcia 'might' improve as a hitter. The risk that he does and you gave up on him too early isn't anything to lose sleep over, while a team that has a contention window needs to upgrade any and every position it can to maximize the return on that window. Most defenders of Arcia point to that hot streak during the very end of the season and playoffs. Sure Yuni Betancourt put together a very good playoffs in 2011. That's doesn't mean he wasn't an absolute horrible player. Funny how the timing of a hot streak can negate a career of crapitude for some...

JosephC said:
Stearns probably had no interest in getting a C because the Brewers need a C. It makes much more sense to trade for 3B when it's not needed, and then move the other 3B to 2B, then trade for a 2B, but since the 3B is now at 2B, then the new 2B goes to SS


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: July 31, 2019, 6:40 PM Post
Posts: 4412
Pugger said:
Thurston Fluff said:
Brewcrewin07 said:
Let me ask you, are you satisfied with the rotation right now?? Is it division winning quality to you?? I'll hang up and listen to your answer


The rotational piece you want means trading Hiura. There really isn't anything else in the system worth enough. I do not want to trade Hiura. Basically you are asking for something that isn't possible.


I disagree 100%...No way any of those guys available should cost Hiura. Grisham?? Sure, totally fine with that plus other pieces. That's what I thought they would pull off, using him in a deal for one.


Now that we see the price for Greinke and the comments from Stearns on the price of quality starting pitchers I think we can safely assume Grisham was not going to get us a quality starter.[/quote]

I think losing Grisham would haveen be a bigger mistake than losing Dubon big time.[/quote]

I agree but that doesn't mean he was somehow going to get us a starter of any quality. All it would have done is hurt us later on.

There needs to be a King Thames version of the bible.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: July 31, 2019, 6:56 PM Post
Posts: 2306
xisxisxis said:
TJseven7 said:
So Arcia is bad, but going to be expensive in Arby?

Moving on from him now would be fitting. We missed Escobar's best years. We missed Segura's best years. Why not miss Arcia's best years.

How is Arcia like either of those two? Escobar's defense is elite compared to Arcia. Segura always had a higher ceiling than Arcia and a change of scenery for Jean was probably the best for him given the loss of his child, they aren't comparable at all. Sure, Arcia 'might' improve as a hitter. The risk that he does and you gave up on him too early isn't anything to lose sleep over, while a team that has a contention window needs to upgrade any and every position it can to maximize the return on that window. Most defenders of Arcia point to that hot streak during the very end of the season and playoffs. Sure Yuni Betancourt put together a very good playoffs in 2011. That's doesn't mean he wasn't an absolute horrible player. Funny how the timing of a hot streak can negate a career of crapitude for some...


Hasn't Arcia been and elite defender every year before this year? Escobar at 23 with MKE was a 1.4 Dwar. Had a 1.5 and a 1.9 with KC at 24 and 26. Arcia was a 1.3 at the age of 22. Arcia is only a .4 so far this year at 24. Escobar was a .6 at 25. Escobar had a 1.9 a 1.5 and a 1.4 and 5 years that average .6.

They are different?

Career .258/.293/.636
Career .246/.296/.663

Maybe you have recency bias on the defensive down year by Arcia? It's just a bad idea to give up on 24 year olds who have put up a
.277/.324/.731 season with a 1.3 Dwar at the age of 22 in the majors.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: July 31, 2019, 7:56 PM Post
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xisxisxis said:
How is Arcia like either of those two? Escobar's defense is elite compared to Arcia..


Do you really believe he forgot how to play defense? I certainly can't explain the dropoff this year, but it don't think he's destined for it to be a permanant issue.

But while on the topic of poor comparisons, Yuni B.'s playoff success came as a 29 year old, and Arcia's was at 24. There's still reason to think Arcia can develop from that, where as Yuni was at his hypothetical peak, if he had that.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: July 31, 2019, 8:00 PM Post
Posts: 2306
PeaveyFury said:
xisxisxis said:
How is Arcia like either of those two? Escobar's defense is elite compared to Arcia..


Do you really believe he forgot how to play defense? I certainly can't explain the dropoff this year, but it don't think he's destined for it to be a permanant issue.

But while on the topic of poor comparisons, Yuni B.'s playoff success came as a 29 year old, and Arcia's was at 24. There's still reason to think Arcia can develop from that, where as Yuni was at his hypothetical peak, if he had that.


As I said above, Escobar's dwar of 1.4 and 1.9 was strangely followed by a .6. Then a 1.5 by a .7.

Ups and downs of baseball?


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: July 31, 2019, 8:45 PM Post
Posts: 1362
xisxisxis said:
TJseven7 said:
So Arcia is bad, but going to be expensive in Arby?

Moving on from him now would be fitting. We missed Escobar's best years. We missed Segura's best years. Why not miss Arcia's best years.

How is Arcia like either of those two? Escobar's defense is elite compared to Arcia. Segura always had a higher ceiling than Arcia and a change of scenery for Jean was probably the best for him given the loss of his child, they aren't comparable at all. Sure, Arcia 'might' improve as a hitter. The risk that he does and you gave up on him too early isn't anything to lose sleep over, while a team that has a contention window needs to upgrade any and every position it can to maximize the return on that window. Most defenders of Arcia point to that hot streak during the very end of the season and playoffs. Sure Yuni Betancourt put together a very good playoffs in 2011. That's doesn't mean he wasn't an absolute horrible player. Funny how the timing of a hot streak can negate a career of crapitude for some...



Because it'd mean we hypothetically gave up on him too early as well. Pretty straight forward.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: July 31, 2019, 8:58 PM Post
Posts: 1362
clancyphile said:
owbc said:
jerichoholicninja said:
I'm not sure when the Dubon hype train hit the tracks. I just happened to turn on WTMJ as they were reporting the trade and Jeff Wagner referred to Dubon as the Brewers "top prospect". He could be a nice player but what is his ceiling, utility infielder?


It happened when Arcia struggled again this year and the grass started looking greener on the other side.


Arcia'll always rank above Jim Gantner for his 2018 post-season run, but Moustakas at short sounds much more appealing. Yeah, he'd be an extremely bat-first option there, but... if he hits like he did this year, is it worth dealing Arcia?



Unbelievable. It's like there's a competition between Brewcrewin07 and you right now. How can we destroy the future of this team vs how bad of a defense can we conjure up.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: July 31, 2019, 9:21 PM Post
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Plus this should be a conversation about Dubon, Pomeranz, and Black. It shouldn't have anything to do with Arcia or defense...


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: July 31, 2019, 9:53 PM Post
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I did some math on Twitter, and came to the conclusion that... the trade is probably fine. Depends both on whether Dubon's value had peaked at a lower value than we thought, and what the Brewers think of Ray Black. If Dubon was shopped on the open market and was not valued at anything over a 45 OFP by other teams, the Brewers are taking a risk that Ray Black will be worth at least 1 WAR before he hits arbitration. That's not a huge risk.

OTOH, if the Brewers sold low on Dubon to get Black, the Brewers must really think they can unlock Black. At a 50 OFP For Dubon, Black would have to either be worth 2.5 WAR before arbitration (extraordinarily unlikely), or the Brewers plan on holding onto him into arbitration (more than a few years). We'll probably never know if they sold lower than necessary on Dubon, though, and there is some evidence to suggest that a 45 OFP was the proper valuation.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: August 01, 2019, 1:13 AM Post
Posts: 1963
benji said:
The negative to me is that Fauria and Black out of options next year and Pomeranz a FA in 2 months.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk




This is troublesome to me.... also overlooked. Having two RP without options (next year) in the back of the pen? What is wrong with this picture?


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: August 01, 2019, 6:18 AM Post
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Brewcrewin07 said:
This...all of this. As much as I wanted a "big" move, I would have been perfectly happy with a couple of Tanner Roark type acquisitions for the rotation. Instead they want to be taken seriously in a pennant race, when the only acquisition they make to their starting rotation is Jordan Lyles?? Really?? Sure, I get prices were high on the big fish, but it didn't cost Oakland much to get Roark.


For the love of God, please stop, already! You're like a broken record. People repeatedly tell you that we didn't have the resources to add a top arm, and yet still you persist with that narrative.

"I wanted a big move". [rolling eyes]

And what is your obsession with Tanner Roark? You whine about Jordan Lyles, but think Tanner Roark is a "needle mover"? [laughing] You think he's that much better than Lyles?

Here's a comparison of the two, 2017-2019

K:BB ratio:

Roark 2.76:1 (420 K: 152 BB)
Lyles 2.74:1 (233 K:85 BB)

FIP
Roark 4.20
Lyles 4.76

WHIP
Roark 1.335
Lyles 1.451

BB/9 IP
Roark 2.9
Lyles 3.1

Roark is only slightly better than Lyles in these metrics.

This year, Roark has been marginally above league average as a pitcher. His ERA+ is 107, but below league average (99) the last three years. His WHIP this year is pretty bad, 1.423. He's giving up 9.7 hits and 3.1 BB per 9 innings pitched. And last year, he led the National League with 15 losses. The Nationals were were 13-18 in his 31 appearances, and 69-62 when he did not take the mound.

And it didn't cost the A's much? They sent their second round pick from 2018, Jameson Hannah, to Cincy. #50 overall. Hannah's going to be a pretty good player, I think. He's from Flower Mound, the city I live in, and there was a good deal of buzz around his possibly being a first round draft pick. He's a young, toolsy outfielder with outstanding speed. The A's will only have to pay about $1.1 million for the remainder of the season, as the Reds also sent $2.1 M in cash. But giving up a 21 year old second rounder is a pretty steep price for what will, essentially, be a two month rental. His 2018 salary is $10 million. I don't see the A's coughing up the kind of money he'll be looking for.

Roark wasn't going to be a difference maker for the Brewers.

There are three things America will be known for 2000 years from now when they study this civilization: the Constitution, jazz music and baseball. They're the three most beautifully designed things this culture has ever produced. Gerald Early


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: August 01, 2019, 8:08 AM Post
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Yeah, the Tanner Roark obsession is baffling.

I get the point that somehow 2 league-average pitchers were going to make some big difference......problem is the point is a poor one.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: August 01, 2019, 8:10 AM Post
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Thoughts about this trade:

1. Even when Stearns is shipping out a top prospect, he's still bringing in more players than he's shipping out. This was something he discussed a lot during the rebuilding cycle, but it's hard to do when buying vs. selling. If Pomeranz helps stabilize the bullpen and get us to the playoffs, it's probably a fair deal. If Black can turn into a late inning reliever for a few years, it's probably a fair deal. Stearns would rather have multiple avenues to get value out of this trade.

2. At the same time, Black is a weird trade target. He just turned 29, he has no options remaining next year, which means he probably better figure something out in the next couple months, otherwise he may not even make the team next year (same reasoning applies to Faria, except he's a few years younger).

I think you have to look at this deadline's moves all at once rather than individually, especially the Aguilar/Dubon trades. Stearns is essentially trying to buy upside for as low a cost as possible, and if he buys enough upside, maybe one of these guys will turn out and be worth all the trades. Even if Lyles can keep us in games for the next month or two, that will go a long way to justifying all of these trades.

For this year and the future, I'd kinda rather take my chances that Grisham is an impact bat than make a deal depleting what's left of the farm to get a "TOR" guy with huge question marks, which is pretty much all that was available at the deadline. I think the Stroman deal just got everyone's hopes up that all these guys might be available for a price we'd be willing to pay, but that just wasn't the case. I think these moves aren't the best to help us win this year, but they're the best when taken as a whole (also combined with the moves Stearns didn't make) to help us win for the next 2-3 years.


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Online  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: August 01, 2019, 8:14 AM Post
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StearnsFTW said:
Yeah, the Tanner Roark obsession is baffling.

I get the point that somehow 2 league-average pitchers were going to make some big difference......problem is the point is a poor one.


Brewcrewin07 went from shooting for the moon (Syndergaard), to shooting for an airplane (Ray), to shooting for a sparrow (Roark). He got to the point with his "grass is always greener" philosophy that he literally wanted to grab anyone that wasn't familiar. All he cared about was wanting a big name guy at first, damned the current results or price. At the end, he simply wanted anyone, yet at the same time he knocked Jordan Lyles and Jacob Faria because he self-appointingly called them "non needle-movers". The guy was all over the map in his disgust.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: August 01, 2019, 8:19 AM Post
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Brewcrewin07 said:
TJseven7 said:
Brewcrewin07 said:
so REALISTICALLY, what did you want the Brewers to do today?


We all were expecting one decent starting pitcher, right? That didn't happen.


This...all of this. As much as I wanted a "big" move, I would have been perfectly happy with a couple of Tanner Roark type acquisitions for the rotation. Instead they want to be taken seriously in a pennant race, when the only acquisition they make to their starting rotation is Jordan Lyles?? Really?? .



5 IP, 1 ER.


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