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Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black

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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: August 01, 2019, 5:47 PM Post
Posts: 1007
wntrtxn21 said:
The Brewers have the worst track record for developing starters in all baseball. Woodruff is the first really good one since Ben Sheets over 25 years ago! Stearns went into the season with no back-up plan knowing full well the Brewers' miserable results with developing starters.


Whether they have been good at it or not in the past is entirely irrelevant, it's still what they have to succeed in doing if they ever want to win anything. There's nothing that says that a team has to be good or bad at something forever. If it's not the same people drafting, not the same draftees, not the same pitching coaches, not the same analysts, not the same strength coaches, not the same facilities, not the same minor league affiliates etc then why would it matter wha tthe previous results were? "Our predecessors were bad at developing pitching, so we shouldn't even bother" isn't the way to go.


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Online  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: August 01, 2019, 5:54 PM Post
Posts: 18984
Baseballtradevalues.com be like, "What? These guys are worthless."

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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: August 01, 2019, 7:44 PM Post
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trwi7 said:
Warning Track Power said:
I know not everyone has the Athletic but the article below analyzes the Brewers acquisition of Pomeranz and Black:

https://theathletic.com/1110345/2019/08/01/drew-pomeranzs-addition-gives-brewers-valuable-flexibility-in-bullpen/

The most interesting thing I found though was in the comment section, Robert Murray's explanation for calling the trade "significant":

When I first got the information, I was told it was Dubon-for-Will Smith. I confirmed Dubon, tweeted it was Dubon-to-SF and a “significant” trade anticipating that it would be Smith coming back. Of course, it was not. I apologize for misleading. It is never my intention to do that.


Good enough for me.


So he was told it was for Smith but wasn't confident enough to actually say it was Dubon for Smith? If you can't confirm the significant piece is coming back, either wait until you can confirm or don't say it's a significant trade and just say Dubon has been traded and am working on the details for who. I wouldn't even consider Dubon for Smith to be a significant trade either. The explanation is crap.


"Journalism"


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Online  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: August 03, 2019, 4:24 PM Post
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They traded Mauricio Dubon for Drew Pomeranz to be a member of the bullpen for two months and below is the bullpen usage since he’s been in uniform...

Thursday vs. A’s
Bullpen enters 7th inning with a 3-1 lead. Guerra comes in to pitch for a 3rd straight day, something he hadn’t done all season. Gives up a run. Hader then comes in with a 3-2 lead, pitching for a third straight day, something he has never done in his major league career. Hader gives up 2 earned runs and Jay Jackson enters and gives up another earned run. Brewers lose 5-3.

Friday vs. Cubs
Bullpen enters game to start the 5th inning down 4-1. Jeffress pitches 1.1 innings and is charged with 2 runs. Alex Claudio finishes 6th inning. Jay Jackson pitches for a second straight day in the 7th inning of a 6-2 game and loads the bases before getting out of it. Drew Pomeranz enters in the 8th inning of a game the Brewers are down 4 runs.

Saturday vs. Cubs
Bullpen enters the game with one out in the 5th inning and the Brewers down 1-0. Matt Albers covers the rest of the 5th and all of the 6th inning after the Brewers have tied it in the top of the 6th inning. In the 7th inning Junior Guerra comes in for the 4th time in 5 days and gives up a run to put the Brewers down 2-1. Freddy Peralta comes in to start the 8th inning and walks three guys and gives up two more runs to go down 4-1 before giving way to Aaron Wilkerson to close out the inning..


So are they just easing Pomeranz in, or did they trade for two months of a guy that is going to get late inning mop-up duty in blowouts? I hope the former is the case, but at this point it seems concerning they would continue to overuse Guerra instead of giving Pomeranz a chance in a meaningful spot.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: August 03, 2019, 6:55 PM Post
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*shaking head*


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Online  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: August 04, 2019, 6:26 AM Post
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One thing that stands out about Ray Black’s Triple-A numbers this season is he gave up 8 earned runs, including 6 hits and 3 home runs, over two appearances (1.2 IP) at Las Vegas (long known as a launching pad although they have a new stadium this season).

If you remove those two outings in Las Vegas he has pitched 22.0 innings and allowed 5 earned runs on 13 hits and just 2 home runs. As noted earlier in the thread he also has a 14.74 K/9 ratio in Triple-A this season. I’d like to see him get a chance in the Brewers bullpen sooner than later.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: August 04, 2019, 7:02 AM Post
Posts: 1742
Location: Madison, WI
Eye Black said:
So are they just easing Pomeranz in, or did they trade for two months of a guy that is going to get late inning mop-up duty in blowouts? I hope the former is the case, but at this point it seems concerning they would continue to overuse Guerra instead of giving Pomeranz a chance in a meaningful spot.


Counsell probably looked at the stat sheet for the last two years and decided he doesn't want to pitch Pomeranz in any situation that could remotely be described as critical because Pomeranz has been complete crap over that timeframe.

How bad does a pitcher need to be to actually post a negative WAR by Fangraph's metrics? Remember Matt Garza in 2015? 6-14 record, 6.3 K/9, 3.45 BB/9, 1.39 HR/9 (prior to juiced ball), 5.63 ERA, 1.57 WHIP...and he was a +0.4 fWAR with those atrocious numbers!

Pomeranz was a negative fWAR AND a negative bWAR player in BOTH 2018 and 2019. Since the beginning of 2018, Pomeranz has a 5.84 ERA, a 5.29 FIP and a 1.68 WHIP...[strike]good[/strike] bad for a -0.5 fWAR and a -1.0 bWAR.

Do we really even know if the Brewers traded for Pomeranz to be a key bullpen piece? Or did Stearns just trade for him to be a swing-man insurance policy if Gio starts having problems and needs to go back to the DL for awhile? Or maybe the Brewers saw something in his delivery that they think they can fix and get him back on track? There is no question that there was a time where Pomeranz was a real good pitcher (much better at his peak than Wade Miley ever was IMO). But sometimes those adjustments just don't happen overnight, and maybe the master Hook needs to work with Pomeranz on the side for a couple weeks until they get a mechanical adjustment worked out?

I don't blame Counsell, no way would I put Pomeranz in a close game with his last 1 2/3 season track record. That recent track record just sucks.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: August 04, 2019, 7:13 AM Post
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I guess we can conclude the Brewers’ talent evaluators weren’t enamored with Dubon’s hit tool, so they swapped him off while he still has a lot of “prospect buzz” about him. But the Giants must not be convinced he can play either which explains the return of basically of rental left handed pitching and a front major league with excellent velocity


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: August 10, 2019, 9:46 AM Post
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In a micro-small sample, Black has pitched in four games for San Antonio so far. He's completed four innings having thrown only 38 pitches, walking one and striking out five. He hasn't needed more than 11 pitches to get through an inning so far and has averaged slightly less than three pitches per plate appearance against him. For a guy who supposedly doesn't have a lot of control, getting 12 outs on only 38 pitches, with five of those outs via strikeout, is an encouraging sign.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: August 10, 2019, 10:12 AM Post
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LouisEly said:
In a micro-small sample, Black has pitched in four games for San Antonio so far. He's completed four innings having thrown only 38 pitches, walking one and striking out five. He hasn't needed more than 11 pitches to get through an inning so far and has averaged slightly less than three pitches per plate appearance against him. For a guy who supposedly doesn't have a lot of control, getting 12 outs on only 38 pitches, with five of those outs via strikeout, is an encouraging sign.


Should be up soon, can use his unhittable stuff to go with Devin throwing his nasty stuff, giving us something we’ve been lacking all year > K’s in high leverage situations, other than hader.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: August 10, 2019, 1:39 PM Post
Posts: 113
Maybe, just maybe, fans tend to vastly overrate prospects and this trade is a whole lot of nothing for both clubs.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: August 10, 2019, 2:48 PM Post
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Bob Skube Snacks said:
Maybe, just maybe, fans tend to vastly overrate prospects and this trade is a whole lot of nothing for both clubs.


Home Runs are up so much that I find if a player is hitting a far number of Home Runs with a good batting average and gets some Stolen Bases. People act like they are the next great thing and they might be in some cases but who knows how many will be.

So yes, It could be. You can't rule it out.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: August 10, 2019, 6:02 PM Post
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Bob Skube Snacks said:
Maybe, just maybe, fans tend to vastly overrate prospects and this trade is a whole lot of nothing for both clubs.


True. It isn't like Stearns fixated on those two pitchers and didn't even bother talking to other teams about their players. The fact this was the best he could get says a lot about what other teams think about Dubon. i hope the for him but I don't think he's going to turn into Gennett.

There needs to be a King Thames version of the bible.


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Online  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: August 10, 2019, 6:11 PM Post
Posts: 18984
Bob Skube Snacks said:
Maybe, just maybe, fans tend to vastly overrate prospects and this trade is a whole lot of nothing for both clubs.


I don't think it's about prospects in general being overrated, I think it's probably a lot more the very limited value the league obviously places on Dubon.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: August 10, 2019, 8:49 PM Post
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It's easy to fall into a trap of thinking all top prospects on every team is somewhere in the talent level as other team's top prospects. I think sometimes that gap can be much wider than even dedicated fans can appreciate.

There needs to be a King Thames version of the bible.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: August 14, 2019, 9:16 PM Post
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wntrtxn21 said:

The Brewers have the worst track record for developing starters in all baseball. Woodruff is the first really good one since Ben Sheets over 25 years ago! Stearns went into the season with no back-up plan knowing full well the Brewers' miserable results with developing starters. The pen is an absolute mess and he did little to fix it from the start.


I would quibble with this a little bit. They certainly have a bad track record, no issue with that. Gallardo was a good pitcher whose career was derailed by an early injury. He was never the same after that injury against the Cubs, never had close to the same command from that point on. He still posted an ERA+ of 108 or better for 9 of his first 10 seasons. He certainly is better than Woodruff at this point.

I don't think the pen was a big weakness way back in spring training. Jeffress has been bad and Knebel got hurt which really diluted it. This was a really bad trade deadline to go for it hardcore, people don't like it but it is true. Not making big moves was the smart approach here. I still don't like what we did mind you. Aguilar is better than his stats suggest this season and Pomeranz is just not a good target even if Dubon doesn't turn out to be much.


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Online  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: August 14, 2019, 10:04 PM Post
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Location: Oshkosh
You must've been incredibly optimistic on Gallardo when he first broke into the big leagues if you think a knee injury his rookie year lead to a disappointing solid 9 years as a starter.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: August 14, 2019, 10:49 PM Post
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Ennder said:
wntrtxn21 said:

The Brewers have the worst track record for developing starters in all baseball. Woodruff is the first really good one since Ben Sheets over 25 years ago! Stearns went into the season with no back-up plan knowing full well the Brewers' miserable results with developing starters. The pen is an absolute mess and he did little to fix it from the start.


I would quibble with this a little bit. They certainly have a bad track record, no issue with that. Gallardo was a good pitcher whose career was derailed by an early injury. He was never the same after that injury against the Cubs, never had close to the same command from that point on. He still posted an ERA+ of 108 or better for 9 of his first 10 seasons. He certainly is better than Woodruff at this point.

I don't think the pen was a big weakness way back in spring training. Jeffress has been bad and Knebel got hurt which really diluted it. This was a really bad trade deadline to go for it hardcore, people don't like it but it is true. Not making big moves was the smart approach here. I still don't like what we did mind you. Aguilar is better than his stats suggest this season and Pomeranz is just not a good target even if Dubon doesn't turn out to be much.


Jeffress see,so to have turned a corner recently. I’d trust him with more save chances, allowing Hader to be deployed when several lefties are coming up, whether 6th or 9th inning


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: August 14, 2019, 10:57 PM Post
Posts: 8033
SomewhereInTime said:
You must've been incredibly optimistic on Gallardo when he first broke into the big leagues if you think a knee injury his rookie year lead to a disappointing solid 9 years as a starter.


I don't know if it's the knee injury. But as he evolved, I liked his approach less. Early in his career he was a terrific strike thrower. It seemed I was always comfortable he'd give up 2 or fewer runs, and we'd always be in the game. I remember noting how in his draft scouting video AND 1st seasons, he had an incredible knack for striking out hitters looking in belt-high heaters. Early in his career, he was a true 4-pitch pitcher, and I seem to recall he used his curve and changeup as deadly weapons. Later in his career it seemed he was a 2-pitch pitcher, relying more on a slider. He went from attacking hitters to nibbling.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: August 15, 2019, 5:15 AM Post
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SomewhereInTime said:
You must've been incredibly optimistic on Gallardo when he first broke into the big leagues if you think a knee injury his rookie year lead to a disappointing solid 9 years as a starter.


I just watched him pitch. When he came back from his injury his mechanics were off, he didn't have nearly as much power in his lower half and his command never recovered. He looked like a different guy. Injuries are part of baseball, all kinds of careers get derailed by them and it isn't always just career ending or nagging things. Regardless it is hard to say that Woodruff is the best since Sheets when he isn't clearly above Gallardo yet, it is too early. Gallardo was a success for the Brewers.


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