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Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black

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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: August 15, 2019, 6:42 AM Post
Posts: 434
DHonks said:
Ennder said:
wntrtxn21 said:

The Brewers have the worst track record for developing starters in all baseball. Woodruff is the first really good one since Ben Sheets over 25 years ago! Stearns went into the season with no back-up plan knowing full well the Brewers' miserable results with developing starters. The pen is an absolute mess and he did little to fix it from the start.


I would quibble with this a little bit. They certainly have a bad track record, no issue with that. Gallardo was a good pitcher whose career was derailed by an early injury. He was never the same after that injury against the Cubs, never had close to the same command from that point on. He still posted an ERA+ of 108 or better for 9 of his first 10 seasons. He certainly is better than Woodruff at this point.

I don't think the pen was a big weakness way back in spring training. Jeffress has been bad and Knebel got hurt which really diluted it. This was a really bad trade deadline to go for it hardcore, people don't like it but it is true. Not making big moves was the smart approach here. I still don't like what we did mind you. Aguilar is better than his stats suggest this season and Pomeranz is just not a good target even if Dubon doesn't turn out to be much.


Jeffress see,so to have turned a corner recently. I’d trust him with more save chances, allowing Hader to be deployed when several lefties are coming up, whether 6th or 9th inning


I don't see your liking Jeffress to get more save chances. In his last 8 opportunities: 12 hits and 9 runs allowed in 9 innings. He is pitching more like a mop-up guy than a closer.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: August 15, 2019, 6:49 AM Post
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Posts: 9172
wntrtxn21 said:

I don't see your liking Jeffress to get more save chances. In his last 8 opportunities: 12 hits and 9 runs allowed in 9 innings. He is pitching more like a mop-up guy than a closer.


You are skewing statistics to suit your argument. Now let me try. I am almost positive that DHonks is referring to JJ's last three appearances, where he's pitched a total of 3 2/3 innings of 1-hit ball. Small sample to be sure, but there's no denying that he has looked better over the last week.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: August 15, 2019, 11:23 AM Post
Posts: 86
Location: Wauwatosa, WI
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
wntrtxn21 said:

I don't see your liking Jeffress to get more save chances. In his last 8 opportunities: 12 hits and 9 runs allowed in 9 innings. He is pitching more like a mop-up guy than a closer.


You are skewing statistics to suit your argument. Now let me try. I am almost positive that DHonks is referring to JJ's last three appearances, where he's pitched a total of 3 2/3 innings of 1-hit ball. Small sample to be sure, but there's no denying that he has looked better over the last week.

Those innings basically coincide with the return of the split-change to his repertoire. I would not be shocked if he turned it around with the way that pitch has been looking since he un-retired it during the Pittsburgh game. Definitely giving me hope again!


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: August 15, 2019, 1:32 PM Post
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Smichaelis9 said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
wntrtxn21 said:

I don't see your liking Jeffress to get more save chances. In his last 8 opportunities: 12 hits and 9 runs allowed in 9 innings. He is pitching more like a mop-up guy than a closer.


You are skewing statistics to suit your argument. Now let me try. I am almost positive that DHonks is referring to JJ's last three appearances, where he's pitched a total of 3 2/3 innings of 1-hit ball. Small sample to be sure, but there's no denying that he has looked better over the last week.

Those innings basically coincide with the return of the split-change to his repertoire. I would not be shocked if he turned it around with the way that pitch has been looking since he un-retired it during the Pittsburgh game. Definitely giving me hope again!



The question is why he abandoned it in the first place?


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: August 15, 2019, 1:40 PM Post
Posts: 4698
Location: Madison, WI
The issue of not using pitches sure seems to be a theme for a lot of pitchers this year doesn't it?


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: August 15, 2019, 2:01 PM Post
Posts: 4429
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
wntrtxn21 said:

I don't see your liking Jeffress to get more save chances. In his last 8 opportunities: 12 hits and 9 runs allowed in 9 innings. He is pitching more like a mop-up guy than a closer.


You are skewing statistics to suit your argument. Now let me try. I am almost positive that DHonks is referring to JJ's last three appearances, where he's pitched a total of 3 2/3 innings of 1-hit ball. Small sample to be sure, but there's no denying that he has looked better over the last week.


Isn't using the last three games also skewing the stats to fit the argument?

There needs to be a King Thames version of the bible.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: August 15, 2019, 2:04 PM Post
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Posts: 9172
Thurston Fluff said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
wntrtxn21 said:

I don't see your liking Jeffress to get more save chances. In his last 8 opportunities: 12 hits and 9 runs allowed in 9 innings. He is pitching more like a mop-up guy than a closer.


You are skewing statistics to suit your argument. Now let me try. I am almost positive that DHonks is referring to JJ's last three appearances, where he's pitched a total of 3 2/3 innings of 1-hit ball. Small sample to be sure, but there's no denying that he has looked better over the last week.


Isn't using the last three games also skewing the stats to fit the argument?


Yes ... hence why I prefaced it by saying "let me try"


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: August 15, 2019, 3:16 PM Post
Posts: 86
Location: Wauwatosa, WI
benji said:
Smichaelis9 said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:

You are skewing statistics to suit your argument. Now let me try. I am almost positive that DHonks is referring to JJ's last three appearances, where he's pitched a total of 3 2/3 innings of 1-hit ball. Small sample to be sure, but there's no denying that he has looked better over the last week.

Those innings basically coincide with the return of the split-change to his repertoire. I would not be shocked if he turned it around with the way that pitch has been looking since he un-retired it during the Pittsburgh game. Definitely giving me hope again!



The question is why he abandoned it in the first place?

I know a lot of guys who throw splitters have said the balls are making it difficult. Still, that was the pitch that was the difference maker for him last year. Completely abandoning it was really weird. Only other thing I can think of was that it bothered his elbow or something, because splitters do put more pressure on the elbow.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: September 01, 2019, 5:33 PM Post
Posts: 3060
Stearns knew what he was doing with this trade. Pomeranz alone, imo, makes this trade. Black is the bonus. Hoping to see Pomeranz signed, and back next year in our pen. Trust Stearns discernment on the prospect Dubon. Great trade.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: September 01, 2019, 11:23 PM Post
Posts: 8032
Also, with work in our Maryvale lab, perhaps Pomeranz is able to return to 17-game winning form.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: September 04, 2019, 8:59 AM Post
Posts: 693
Pomeranz with the Brewers (1 start)
2.35 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 42.4 K% in 15.1 IP

Pomeranz as a reliever in 2019
1.53 ERA, 1.75 FIP, 46.2 K% in 17.2 IP

If he continues to pitch like this down the stretch (and hopefully into the playoffs) it will be interesting to see what his market is like in free agency.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: September 04, 2019, 11:17 AM Post
Posts: 5094
Location: New Berlin, WI
long ball said:
Pomeranz with the Brewers (1 start)
2.35 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 42.4 K% in 15.1 IP

Pomeranz as a reliever in 2019
1.53 ERA, 1.75 FIP, 46.2 K% in 17.2 IP

If he continues to pitch like this down the stretch (and hopefully into the playoffs) it will be interesting to see what his market is like in free agency.


He probably falls into that 2-3 year deal for 6-8 million per year bucket doesn't he? Sample is small, but just look at the stuff. He's definitely worked his way into pitching the very back end of games for this team. You could easily argue he's our 2nd best reliever.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: September 04, 2019, 11:19 AM Post
Posts: 556
So, what do people think it would take to sign Pomeranz in the off season? We're talking about a guy that made 1.5M this year. Would a 2 year 5M type deal get it done (similar to what we gave Albers before last season)? Or, will he get more after what he showed out of the pen during the 2nd half of this year? I would love to bring him back, if we can get him on a team friendly deal. But, it's not like other teams aren't also watching what he's doing right now, so I wonder if some team offers him more?


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: September 04, 2019, 11:25 AM Post
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Posts: 10811
KeithStone53151 said:
long ball said:
Pomeranz with the Brewers (1 start)
2.35 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 42.4 K% in 15.1 IP

Pomeranz as a reliever in 2019
1.53 ERA, 1.75 FIP, 46.2 K% in 17.2 IP

If he continues to pitch like this down the stretch (and hopefully into the playoffs) it will be interesting to see what his market is like in free agency.


He probably falls into that 2-3 year deal for 6-8 million per year bucket doesn't he? Sample is small, but just look at the stuff. He's definitely worked his way into pitching the very back end of games for this team. You could easily argue he's our 2nd best reliever.


He might be willing to take a 1 year "prove it all year" deal betting that he can do better next offseason. Market is weird these days so who knows.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: September 04, 2019, 11:43 AM Post
Posts: 701
Location: Washburn, WI
I would feel comfortable with bringing Pomeranz back on a 2/$6-8 million contract. He has done well with the Brewers, but that is only in a 15 inning sample Also, he does walk quite a few guys which could really turn some teams away. His BB/9 the last two years is comparable to Freddy Peralta. The last thing teams want is a guy coming out of the bullpen walking guys. I think that will be a big reason that his market won’t be as strong as some people think it will be.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: September 04, 2019, 12:27 PM Post
Posts: 4698
Location: Madison, WI
One factor that probably comes into everything is if someone is going to let him try to start again. As in, he might value one more opportunity at it and choose that route with a non contending team that gives him that chance. If he fails, go back to the pen again. That could also factor into what money he gets as well.

In other news, Dubon did hit a ding dong the other day. He's at 4/16 with a HR so far.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: September 04, 2019, 2:44 PM Post
Posts: 2975
Kind of random but I was scrolling through Twitter this weekend and Doug Russell from WTMJ got blasted by career minor leaguer Cody Decker for defending the Brewers making this trade, said Russell should punch himself in the face for thinking that and that the trade would haunt the Brewers forever. I don't have anything against Dubon but there have been some extreme opinions around him over the years, even going back to when Dubon was predicted to be the next Brewer to be inducteded into the Hall of Fame by ESPN.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: September 04, 2019, 3:05 PM Post
Posts: 4698
Location: Madison, WI
My best guess would be that he's not more than a borderline starter, so basically a utility IF. But, I also think he could've had good value for MKE in that he's at least a much more contact friendly type hitter than what Arcia has been so far. So I could've seen him has an alternative there and profiles as the type of hitter we'd like to see more of (even if his %s and OPS etc don't end up that great), but if the powers decided they're sticking with Arcia for another year or two then I understand the urgency to move him now. I'd say if we get value will come simply down to Black/Pomeranz and if we get more than just this year out of them. If you get multiple years of solid contribution I don't think anyone can be too upset. If both guys are gone this year, well then we probably didn't get much back and might've been better to keep as insurance policy at IF. We'll see, hope the guy does well and at least one of these guys does well for us the next few years too.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: September 04, 2019, 5:00 PM Post
Posts: 693
KeithStone53151 said:
long ball said:
Pomeranz with the Brewers (1 start)
2.35 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 42.4 K% in 15.1 IP

Pomeranz as a reliever in 2019
1.53 ERA, 1.75 FIP, 46.2 K% in 17.2 IP

If he continues to pitch like this down the stretch (and hopefully into the playoffs) it will be interesting to see what his market is like in free agency.


He probably falls into that 2-3 year deal for 6-8 million per year bucket doesn't he? Sample is small, but just look at the stuff. He's definitely worked his way into pitching the very back end of games for this team. You could easily argue he's our 2nd best reliever.


I think that's too high. Justin Wilson got 2 years $10mm. I think that's the absolute top end of what Pomeranz would get.

I'm thinking he's more likely in the 1 year $4mm range. As another poster mentioned, if a team gives him a chance to start that may sway him.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: September 11, 2019, 6:04 AM Post
Posts: 18897
As someone who genuinely does try to see both sides I will point this out:

Will Smith, 2nd half: 4.56 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, .849 OPS against
Pomeranz since acquired: 3.06 ERA, 1.19 WHIP

As someone who felt that they should have at least gotten Will Smith for Dubon I should concede that it is entirely possible that Smith for Dubon was on the table and David's due diligence on Smith from his analytics department and Smith's 2nd half history (he's a notorious 1st half player who is now injured) led him to prefer the Pomeranz/Black deal.

With all that said, I'll reiterate that Dubon is seeing significant playing time for the Giants, is playing very well and would be seeing significant time for us as well right now if he was still here.


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