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Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black

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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: September 11, 2019, 6:10 AM Post
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adambr2 said:
As someone who genuinely does try to see both sides I will point this out:

Will Smith, 2nd half: 4.56 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, .849 OPS against
Pomeranz since acquired: 3.06 ERA, 1.19 WHIP

As someone who felt that they should have at least gotten Will Smith for Dubon I should concede that it is entirely possible that Smith for Dubon was on the table and David's due diligence on Smith from his analytics department and Smith's 2nd half history (he's a notorious 1st half player who is now injured) led him to prefer the Pomeranz/Black deal.

With all that said, I'll reiterate that Dubon is seeing significant playing time for the Giants, is playing very well and would be seeing significant time for us as well right now if he was still here.


We'll probably never know whether Smith was ever on the table for Dubon, but given the choice of a partial season of Smith or a partial season of Pomeranz, and 6 years of Black, I think I'd choose the latter.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: September 11, 2019, 6:32 AM Post
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Location: Chicago
long ball said:
KeithStone53151 said:
long ball said:
Pomeranz with the Brewers (1 start)
2.35 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 42.4 K% in 15.1 IP

Pomeranz as a reliever in 2019
1.53 ERA, 1.75 FIP, 46.2 K% in 17.2 IP

If he continues to pitch like this down the stretch (and hopefully into the playoffs) it will be interesting to see what his market is like in free agency.


He probably falls into that 2-3 year deal for 6-8 million per year bucket doesn't he? Sample is small, but just look at the stuff. He's definitely worked his way into pitching the very back end of games for this team. You could easily argue he's our 2nd best reliever.


I think that's too high. Justin Wilson got 2 years $10mm. I think that's the absolute top end of what Pomeranz would get.

I'm thinking he's more likely in the 1 year $4mm range. As another poster mentioned, if a team gives him a chance to start that may sway him.


If you read the JS article on Pomeranz he said he’s been traded 5 times in his career and would like to stay in one place for a few years. Money talks but based on those comments he’s probably looking for a multi year deal to pitch in any role, more than a one year deal to start. A team can never have too many left handlers who throw hard either


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: September 11, 2019, 6:57 AM Post
Posts: 18897
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
adambr2 said:
As someone who genuinely does try to see both sides I will point this out:

Will Smith, 2nd half: 4.56 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, .849 OPS against
Pomeranz since acquired: 3.06 ERA, 1.19 WHIP

As someone who felt that they should have at least gotten Will Smith for Dubon I should concede that it is entirely possible that Smith for Dubon was on the table and David's due diligence on Smith from his analytics department and Smith's 2nd half history (he's a notorious 1st half player who is now injured) led him to prefer the Pomeranz/Black deal.

With all that said, I'll reiterate that Dubon is seeing significant playing time for the Giants, is playing very well and would be seeing significant time for us as well right now if he was still here.


We'll probably never know whether Smith was ever on the table for Dubon, but given the choice of a partial season of Smith or a partial season of Pomeranz, and 6 years of Black, I think I'd choose the latter.


Given his age and lack of track record, I'm still not sure we get 1 more year of Black, let alone 6.

I don't know what to make of Black so far. He's gotten the job done for the most part, but there hasn't been much substance to it. It's been a lot more pitching to contact than I would have expected. But if he can keep the walks low that is a good sign.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: September 11, 2019, 7:01 AM Post
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adambr2 said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
adambr2 said:
As someone who genuinely does try to see both sides I will point this out:

Will Smith, 2nd half: 4.56 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, .849 OPS against
Pomeranz since acquired: 3.06 ERA, 1.19 WHIP

As someone who felt that they should have at least gotten Will Smith for Dubon I should concede that it is entirely possible that Smith for Dubon was on the table and David's due diligence on Smith from his analytics department and Smith's 2nd half history (he's a notorious 1st half player who is now injured) led him to prefer the Pomeranz/Black deal.

With all that said, I'll reiterate that Dubon is seeing significant playing time for the Giants, is playing very well and would be seeing significant time for us as well right now if he was still here.


We'll probably never know whether Smith was ever on the table for Dubon, but given the choice of a partial season of Smith or a partial season of Pomeranz, and 6 years of Black, I think I'd choose the latter.


Given his age and lack of track record, I'm still not sure we get 1 more year of Black, let alone 6.

I don't know what to make of Black so far. He's gotten the job done for the most part, but there hasn't been much substance to it. It's been a lot more pitching to contact than I would have expected. But if he can keep the walks low that is a good sign.


Obviously it is a pretty small sample, but Black hasn't shown me anything so far to indicate that he won't be a regular member of the pen next season. Next couple weeks are going to be big for him, as Counsell has started using him in higher leverage situations. Things can obviously change, but as of right now, his spot in the 2020 pen is secure.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: September 11, 2019, 7:49 AM Post
Posts: 3060
adambr2 said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
adambr2 said:
As someone who genuinely does try to see both sides I will point this out:

Will Smith, 2nd half: 4.56 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, .849 OPS against
Pomeranz since acquired: 3.06 ERA, 1.19 WHIP

As someone who felt that they should have at least gotten Will Smith for Dubon I should concede that it is entirely possible that Smith for Dubon was on the table and David's due diligence on Smith from his analytics department and Smith's 2nd half history (he's a notorious 1st half player who is now injured) led him to prefer the Pomeranz/Black deal.

With all that said, I'll reiterate that Dubon is seeing significant playing time for the Giants, is playing very well and would be seeing significant time for us as well right now if he was still here.


We'll probably never know whether Smith was ever on the table for Dubon, but given the choice of a partial season of Smith or a partial season of Pomeranz, and 6 years of Black, I think I'd choose the latter.


Given his age and lack of track record, I'm still not sure we get 1 more year of Black, let alone 6.

I don't know what to make of Black so far. He's gotten the job done for the most part, but there hasn't been much substance to it. It's been a lot more pitching to contact than I would have expected. But if he can keep the walks low that is a good sign.


Great take on Black.
He’s hard to barrel, so contact ok, as long as his bb’s stay low, he should continue to be effective.

Imo, he has a governor on his power, otherwise we’d have seen 102. But if he can ever truly command his pitches, he’d be unhittable.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: September 13, 2019, 5:14 PM Post
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For all of the concerns about Black and his control, in a micro-small sample he has the 3rd lowest walk rate in the bullpen behind only Suter and Faria.

I keep wondering when Counsell is going to move him into a later-inning higher leverage role instead of the 5th/6th inning role he has been in.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: September 13, 2019, 5:31 PM Post
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Pleased so far with Black's results but it's 10 IP. really much too small a sample to draw meaningful conclusions from. He's walked over 5 per 9 in his minor league career, and 4.7 per 9 in the minors this year. A 10 inning sample where he's suddenly walking less isn't indicative of much.

I'm not saying he shouldn't 'be in the pen next year. He's got insane strikeout numbers at every level. Just more than sure that 10 IP is a poor use of stats and sample sizes.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: September 16, 2019, 8:33 AM Post
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He touches 100 from an almost sidearm angle. His numbers may show some concerns but at least there's something to work with which is more than can be said about moste of the bottom feeding bullpen arms we trotted out this year.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: September 16, 2019, 8:46 AM Post
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jerichoholicninja said:
He touches 100 from an almost sidearm angle. His numbers may show some concerns but at least there's something to work with which is more than can be said about moste of the bottom feeding bullpen arms we trotted out this year.


Yep, obviously yesterday's result is not ideal, but the command of his pitches was crap. He couldn't get his breaking ball over, and when you are forced to groove a FB, it doesn't matter how fast it is. I'm still optimistic about his chances of being a solid late inning pen option. I don't think anyone is calling him a future closer quite yet, though.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: September 16, 2019, 11:38 AM Post
Posts: 1229
I think, watching Black pitch, that he's a good option for next year's pen almost certainly.

Is he a high-leverage option? I don't know. But at this point, I'm pretty comfortable having him out there in a "keep them close" role, yesterday notwithstanding. You need guys like that.

Of course, it's the bullpen. It's the most random part of baseball. But, yeah. For now, I think he's a good arm to have.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: September 16, 2019, 12:16 PM Post
Posts: 1116
Location: Wisconsin
I expect that Black will be a part of the bullpen next year, even if it's one of the "shuttle" spots. He'll have an opportunity in spring training to earn a bigger role. Some of that depends on whether Knebel comes back at full strength and what Bobby Wahl is like. But I don't think he has shown yet that he has what it takes to be one of the top late inning options.

I also expect the Brewers to sign one or more veteran relievers to help fill out the pen.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: September 16, 2019, 12:21 PM Post
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BruisedCrew said:
I expect that Black will be a part of the bullpen next year, even if it's one of the "shuttle" spots. He'll have an opportunity in spring training to earn a bigger role. Some of that depends on whether Knebel comes back at full strength and what Bobby Wahl is like. But I don't think he has shown yet that he has what it takes to be one of the top late inning options.

I also expect the Brewers to sign one or more veteran relievers to help fill out the pen.


Black is out of options next year, so he'd be here to stay.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: September 16, 2019, 12:33 PM Post
Posts: 4698
Location: Madison, WI
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
jerichoholicninja said:
He touches 100 from an almost sidearm angle. His numbers may show some concerns but at least there's something to work with which is more than can be said about moste of the bottom feeding bullpen arms we trotted out this year.


Yep, obviously yesterday's result is not ideal, but the command of his pitches was crap. He couldn't get his breaking ball over, and when you are forced to groove a FB, it doesn't matter how fast it is. I'm still optimistic about his chances of being a solid late inning pen option. I don't think anyone is calling him a future closer quite yet, though.


Well I bet someone is saying it...haha


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: September 16, 2019, 12:48 PM Post
Posts: 3060
tmwiese55 said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
jerichoholicninja said:
He touches 100 from an almost sidearm angle. His numbers may show some concerns but at least there's something to work with which is more than can be said about moste of the bottom feeding bullpen arms we trotted out this year.


Yep, obviously yesterday's result is not ideal, but the command of his pitches was crap. He couldn't get his breaking ball over, and when you are forced to groove a FB, it doesn't matter how fast it is. I'm still optimistic about his chances of being a solid late inning pen option. I don't think anyone is calling him a future closer quite yet, though.


Well I bet someone is saying it...haha


He’s definitely a potential future closer. But a lot has to go right with him for that to happen, and I think we all know what that is, command of his pitches. Simple.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: September 16, 2019, 12:57 PM Post
Posts: 4698
Location: Madison, WI
shocker. yes, anyone who throws hard and has a a good 6-7 game run is a future closer. He's up right after Barnes and Taylor Williams.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: September 16, 2019, 1:35 PM Post
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tmwiese55 said:
shocker. yes, anyone who throws hard and has a a good 6-7 game run is a future closer. He's up right after Barnes and Taylor Williams.


Black has way way way way better stuff than the 2 mental midgets that you just mentioned. Command. It’s that simple. Right?


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: September 16, 2019, 1:38 PM Post
Posts: 4698
Location: Madison, WI
Brew crew 92 said:
tmwiese55 said:
shocker. yes, anyone who throws hard and has a a good 6-7 game run is a future closer. He's up right after Barnes and Taylor Williams.


Black has way way way way better stuff than the 2 mental midgets that you just mentioned. Command. It’s that simple. Right?


Go take a look at what Barnes did through around mid June last year and let me know how many years and how long of an extension you'd have given him? Simple, obvious, this guy had figured it out. He also throws 99 with a big slider, I'd pretty confidently say his slider bites more than Blacks.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: September 16, 2019, 1:47 PM Post
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tmwiese55 said:
Brew crew 92 said:
tmwiese55 said:
shocker. yes, anyone who throws hard and has a a good 6-7 game run is a future closer. He's up right after Barnes and Taylor Williams.


Black has way way way way better stuff than the 2 mental midgets that you just mentioned. Command. It’s that simple. Right?


Go take a look at what Barnes did through around mid June last year and let me know how many years and how long of an extension you'd have given him? Simple, obvious, this guy had figured it out. He also throws 99 with a big slider, I'd pretty confidently say his slider bites more than Blacks.


I think it's pretty obvious from BC92's takes that anything anyone did last year does not matter at all. Heck, we're lucky if anything someone did more than two weeks ago comes into play.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: September 16, 2019, 1:51 PM Post
Posts: 3060
tmwiese55 said:
Brew crew 92 said:
tmwiese55 said:
shocker. yes, anyone who throws hard and has a a good 6-7 game run is a future closer. He's up right after Barnes and Taylor Williams.


Black has way way way way better stuff than the 2 mental midgets that you just mentioned. Command. It’s that simple. Right?


Go take a look at what Barnes did through around mid June last year and let me know how many years and how long of an extension you'd have given him? Simple, obvious, this guy had figured it out. He also throws 99 with a big slider, I'd pretty confidently say his slider bites more than Blacks.


No, actually Barnes lost 3+ ticks, commented on that in February, never liked those two. Sorry neither of them ever hit 105 on the gun . Let’s get back to my extension’s:

Hiura > 8 years
Grisham > 8 years
Lyles > 2/3 years
Pomeranz 2/3 years

That’s it. Those are my extension’s. Never wanted any more to anyone other than these. Even more fervent in my belief they should be extended now than before, when I first said extend. I called for Hiura extension before they called him, to avoid the super 2 game.

Would have already saved millions, especially with the first 2.


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Offline  Re: Dubon to SF for Pomeranz and Black
Posted: September 16, 2019, 2:12 PM Post
Posts: 4698
Location: Madison, WI
I said what would you have said about him in mid June last year as he was raking up an upper 1 to low 2s ERA? Not what in the preseason this year after he flopped 2nd half last year. That was the point, guys can get hot for a bit and come back to earth really quickly. Thus, why one should go nuts over a 30 year old who's done nothing and been hurt a ton having a good 10 game stretch.


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