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Will we win the NL Central?

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Offline  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#21

Posted: August 09, 2019, 11:34 AM Post
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I'm in camp no, but the Cubs had a 7-game lead in the loss column on August 28 last year.


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Offline  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#22

Posted: August 09, 2019, 7:48 PM Post
Posts: 1119
Location: Wisconsin
DHonks said:
Here's the remaining games:
Rangers (3) (2-1)
Twins (2) (1-1)
Nationals (3) (2-1)
Cards (9) (5-4)
Dbacks (3) (2-1)
Cubs (7)
Astros (2) (1-1)
Marlins (4) (3-1)
Padres (4) (2-2)
Pirates (3) (2-1)
Reds (3) (2-1)
Rockies (3) (1-2)

That would put us at 23-16. We would need to probably go 4-3 or 5-2 against the Cubs. Not quite as big of a streak to finish the year as last year, but still pretty darn strong. 87 or 88 wins. We need to beat the crap out of the Rangers, Marlins, Dbacks, Pirates, and Reds. We can't afford to get swept. Then we need to go better than .500 against the Cards and Cubs. And we also need those teams to beat each other up while struggling with some teams we beat.


I suppose it’s possible that a team that has lost a lot more series than they’ve won over the last 10 weeks will suddenly start winning, or at least splitting, almost all of its series the rest of the way. But breaking down each series that way highlights how dramatically the Brewers will have to turn things around to stay in contention to win the division.


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Offline  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#23

Posted: August 09, 2019, 8:26 PM Post
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Entirely a tossup. The Cubs are atrocious on the road and their injuries are piling up. The Brewers...it's been ugly but they have done enough to keep it close. I think the Brewers can win more games than the Cubs the rest of the way, that will be enough to get it to the last week of the season.


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Offline  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#24

Posted: August 09, 2019, 9:19 PM Post
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Anyone bringing up the loss column doesn't get how this works, it is still way too early for that to matter.

It isn't very likely that the Brewers take the central just because they are behind 2 teams. The Cubs are not a very good team though so not like they will be hard to catch. Just a matter of which team gets hot in a small sample.


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Offline  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#25

Posted: August 09, 2019, 9:33 PM Post
Posts: 741
I will say yes. Roster expansion + Brewers get healthy, go on a big run.


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Offline  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#26

Posted: August 09, 2019, 10:03 PM Post
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Don't forget, last year we made it through September with 3 starters and 2 bullpen days. By early Sept we should have Woodruff back, Chacin hopefully working out kinks, Gio dealing, and perhaps Chase throwing well (then again, he was throwing well last year and we didn't pitch him). Expand our roster to 35, mostly with bullpen arms, many capable of going 2-4 innings. We did it last year, we can do it again.


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Offline  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#27

Posted: August 09, 2019, 10:07 PM Post
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Thames clutch play there, Wow


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Offline  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#28

Posted: August 10, 2019, 12:07 AM Post
Posts: 1392
BruisedCrew said:
No.

I still think it will take 90 wins at least to win the division and I don’t see the Brewers doing that given the state of their pitching staff. They could make it interesting if the offense would get hot, but even that might not be enough.

It’s fair to say “look at what happened last year”, just as it’s fair to say “look at what happened in 2014 and 2017”. The Brewers simply don’t have enough reliable relievers to put together a sustained stretch of winning series, especially when they have to cover a minimum of 4 innings every game. The off days in August might help keep them afloat, but unlike last year they don’t have enough off days in September for even the expanded rosters to help. At some point you need some quality, not just quantity.


Meh, it's fair to say, "look at what happened last year, anything can happen." Going several weeks without losing a baseball game, finishing up winning 10 of 11, going 20-6 in the final month and coming back from 5 games back, that's an outlier, not the norm.

We COULD get that hot again, but I think it's more likely that the Cards or Cubs get hot this year than the Brewers do. Each team has better starting pitching, they each have more hitters performing below expectations.

I sure hope we can get hot again, but I just don't think this year is our year. I do like how this team is build for the next 3 years, particularly if we can get some young pitching back on track and or developed and get them up to the big leagues. Maybe add a viable starting pitcher or really invest into a big time FA pitcher. But I don't see much reason to expect them to take off this year and if they do....I just don't see the talent there to beat a Scherzer/Strausburg/Corbin trio or a Buehler, Kershaw, Ryu trio.

But baseball's funny, who knows.


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Offline  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#29

Posted: August 10, 2019, 7:24 AM Post
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We are Lloyd Christmas.

The NL Central crown is Mary Swanson.

What I'm saying is...there is a chance.


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Offline  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#30

Posted: August 10, 2019, 8:04 AM Post
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Ennder said:
Anyone bringing up the loss column doesn't get how this works, it is still way too early for that to matter.

It isn't very likely that the Brewers take the central just because they are behind 2 teams. The Cubs are not a very good team though so not like they will be hard to catch. Just a matter of which team gets hot in a small sample.


Pretty sure the way it works is that you have a limited number of games in which to win while hoping those in front of you lose. The longer you go without gaining ground, the harder that is to do. Kind of a weird, smug comment.

I'd still be surprised if we win the central, but the Cubs have a road game deficit to make up, and they are a horrible road team.


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Online  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#31

Posted: August 10, 2019, 8:30 AM Post
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There's always a chance, this far out.

Cubs and Cards could implode like they did last season.


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Online  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#32

Posted: August 10, 2019, 8:39 AM Post
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Zad Fnark said:
There's always a chance, this far out.

Cubs and Cards could implode like they did last season.


In what world did the Cubs implode last year? They played well the last two months, we were just simply better.


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Online  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#33

Posted: August 10, 2019, 9:34 AM Post
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Last series.


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Offline  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#34

Posted: August 10, 2019, 9:56 AM Post
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The Cubs last series was a 2-1 split with St. Louis. They went 16-12 in September, and took a series over us in mid Sept. They had an 18-10 August. They were 6-3 in their final nine.

They had a close to average September at the wrong time, but there was no collapse. The Brewers just started winning at a pace that was nearly impossible to keep up with. One of the biggest fallacies about last year is that the Cubs collapsed. I've read that hundreds of times and it's just not what happened.


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Offline  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#35

Posted: August 10, 2019, 11:26 AM Post
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In my opinion, they collapsed because they couldn't sweep the cards. Add in the fact that they couldnt beat us or the Rockies at home probably adds more fuel to the fire.

reillymcshane said:
Remember what Yoda said:

"Cubs lead to Cardinals. Cardinals lead to dislike. Dislike leads to hate. Hate leads to constipation."


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Offline  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#36

Posted: August 10, 2019, 11:33 AM Post
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Winning 2/3 of your last nine isn't a collapse. Lol, it's just not.


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Offline  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#37

Posted: August 10, 2019, 12:36 PM Post
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OldSchoolSnapper said:
The Cubs last series was a 2-1 split with St. Louis. They went 16-12 in September, and took a series over us in mid Sept. They had an 18-10 August. They were 6-3 in their final nine.

They had a close to average September at the wrong time, but there was no collapse. The Brewers just started winning at a pace that was nearly impossible to keep up with. One of the biggest fallacies about last year is that the Cubs collapsed. I've read that hundreds of times and it's just not what happened.


I agree that the Cubs didn’t collapse, but they didn’t win a series over the Brewers in September. The Brewers took 2 of 3 in both September series with the Cubs.


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Offline  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#38

Posted: August 10, 2019, 3:20 PM Post
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You're right


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Offline  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#39

Posted: August 10, 2019, 3:51 PM Post
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OldSchoolSnapper said:
You're right


Your Cubs didn't implode last season? Ha! They surely did, and I' m pretty sure most Cubs fans would agree with me.
You are right in that they did not play poorly over the last few months, decent record. Yet, despite having the BEST NL record on the last Saturday morning of the season (before Game 161), they THEN lost their last 3 of 4 (ALL at HOME against three separate teams) to end their season. They were not among the last eight teams in the playoffs.
I know the Brewers implosions of 2014 and 2017 are different, and their 2004 season is all together a different implosion (only team ever to be 10 games over .500 at All Star break that finished at least 10 games below at season's end?); yet, if the 2018 Cubs end of year isn't an implosion, what is?


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Offline  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#40

Posted: August 10, 2019, 4:02 PM Post
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Ennder said:
Anyone bringing up the loss column doesn't get how this works, it is still way too early for that to matter.

It isn't very likely that the Brewers take the central just because they are behind 2 teams. The Cubs are not a very good team though so not like they will be hard to catch. Just a matter of which team gets hot in a small sample.


How does this loss column work in your mind? Explain, please.

I, for one, look at the loss column as a secondary thing after record and games behind/ahead because those losses are games that you simply can't get back. It is Never too early to look at the loss column and games played because it gives a better view of how things actually are in a playoff race.


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