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Will we win the NL Central?

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Offline  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#41

Posted: August 10, 2019, 7:21 PM Post
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My Cubs? What?


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Offline  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#42

Posted: August 10, 2019, 7:57 PM Post
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rickh150 said:
Ennder said:
Anyone bringing up the loss column doesn't get how this works, it is still way too early for that to matter.

It isn't very likely that the Brewers take the central just because they are behind 2 teams. The Cubs are not a very good team though so not like they will be hard to catch. Just a matter of which team gets hot in a small sample.


How does this loss column work in your mind? Explain, please.

I, for one, look at the loss column as a secondary thing after record and games behind/ahead because those losses are games that you simply can't get back. It is Never too early to look at the loss column and games played because it gives a better view of how things actually are in a playoff race.


The loss column doesn't start to matter until one team can realistically come close to winning out. Until that point the simple games back is all that matters. The Brewers have 45 games left to play and are 2.5 games back right now. Unless you think the Cubs are going to go like 40-5 over that stretch the loss column just has no meaning at all yet. The games back is all that matters. If this were still say April and the Brewers were 2.5 games back with 140 games to go nobody would be quoting the loss column so clearly at some point the loss column doesn't matter. Someone could probably do the math to find the perfect number but for me it is likely somewhere in the 20's for games left. If the Brewers are 2.5 games back with say 22 games to play, even if they play an insane 18-4 over that stretch the fact they are 3 games back in the loss column could still make them miss the playoffs. By the time we are at say 10 games to go the loss column is just huge. But at 46 games left to go it has no real meaning.


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Offline  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#43

Posted: August 10, 2019, 8:07 PM Post
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Loss column also matters more when the teams competing have a wide gap in games remaining on their schedules...much was made of the loss column last year around this time due to all the looming cub makeup games when the brewers had off days. While the cubs didn't crater down the stretch they were definitely gassed, which helped a hot brewer team gain in the standings as september rolled along. Those extra games start looking much harder to avoid losing when you are tired and don't have a deep 40 man to count on

This year, loss column isnt that critical to track separately since the games remaining are all very close...just track the standings


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Offline  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#44

Posted: August 12, 2019, 3:10 PM Post
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Location: New Berlin, WI
Knock on wood here, but since the all-star break...4 of the 5 currently in the starting rotation have pitched pretty well. ERA's are 2.45, 6.23, 3.20, 4.00, and 1.59...I'll add that Lyles number in here is as a Brewer only.

The bullpen has been a serious problem since the all-star break. I bet without looking, I could give you all 4 guesses as to which reliever with 10+ appearances has the lowest ERA/WHIP since the break...and nobody would guess it was Junior Guerra with a 3.00 ERA and 0.87 WHIP.

The offense has also obviously been the biggest problem. Hiura, Yelich, Braun, and Pina have OPS over 900 since the all-star break. Nobody else is over 800. Moose is 689, Cain is 746, Arcia is 457, Grandal 641, Thames 726, Gamel 599, Grisham 790. And August has been specifically bad for most of these guys.

So obviously, need a few guys to step up offensively and a couple bullpen arms to find it and become lockdown guys over the next month. I'm specifically looking at Moose, Grandal, Cain, Jeffress and Hader. Those are guys that need to start producing immediately if we're going to make the playoffs.


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Offline  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#45

Posted: August 16, 2019, 7:58 PM Post
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Guess I was wrong about the Cubs. They are imploding at the seams. Guess this is between us and Cards.


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Online  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#46

Posted: August 16, 2019, 8:22 PM Post
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BMB777 said:
Guess I was wrong about the Cubs. They are imploding at the seams. Guess this is between us and Cards.


The Cubs are trying to give it away, but so are the Brewers. Houser pitches a gem and the pen (Guerra) implodes once again. Another total collapse by the offense too. 12 Ks including the 2,3,& 5 hitters whiffing 8 times. 13 LOB and 2/10 w/RISP. This was a game a playoff contender should have won. Both the Brewers and Cubs have to hope the Cards start faltering again, or they both will be going home instead of going to the playoffs.


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Offline  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#47

Posted: August 16, 2019, 8:35 PM Post
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They’ve allowed more runs than all but two NL teams, and 8(!) teams in the NL have scored more runs. They’ve apparently had good luck because those stats portend a much worse record and certainly aren’t the kind of numbers that playoff teams or division champs have


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Offline  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#48

Posted: August 16, 2019, 8:49 PM Post
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It doesn't matter what we have done up to this point or what our record should be. All that matters is from now till the end of the year. Which is not a lot of time and one big streak (either bad/good) could write your season. Will they have to play better to make the postseason? I would imagine...and they can.


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Offline  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#49

Posted: August 17, 2019, 6:56 AM Post
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treego14 said:
30% chance for us ...
50% chance for Cubs ...
20% chance for Cards.


The Cubs will not win the division because they struggle on the road big time. If we start hitting our chances improve. Right now I'd have to give the edge to the Cards - and that doesn't give me any pleasure in the least. [tongue]


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Offline  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#50

Posted: August 17, 2019, 7:32 AM Post
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The Cubs have 21 home games left, where they play .683 baseball. Playing at that percentage they’ll win 14 of those 21.

They have 19 road games left where they’ve played .371 baseball, at that place they’d win 7 of those 19. Adding 21 wins would put the Cubs at 85-77.

Can the Brewers go 23-17 over their remaining 40 games (9 games left against St.L and 7 left against Chi). That’s probably the minimum they can do and have a realistic shot at winning the division


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Offline  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#51

Posted: August 24, 2019, 7:32 PM Post
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DHonks said:
Here's the remaining games:
Rangers (3) (2-1) Done
Twins (2) (1-1) Done
Nationals (3) (2-1) -1 so far
Cards (9) (5-4) 1-2, need to go 4-2 to match my goal
Dbacks (3) (2-1) looking good so far, maybe +1
Cubs (7)
Astros (2) (1-1)
Marlins (4) (3-1)
Padres (4) (2-2)
Pirates (3) (2-1)
Reds (3) (2-1)
Rockies (3) (1-2)

That would put us at 23-16. We would need to probably go 4-3 or 5-2 against the Cubs. Not quite as big of a streak to finish the year as last year, but still pretty darn strong. 87 or 88 wins. We need to beat the crap out of the Rangers, Marlins, Dbacks, Pirates, and Reds. We can't afford to get swept. Then we need to go better than .500 against the Cards and Cubs. And we also need those teams to beat each other up while struggling with some teams we beat.


see Red notes. Next two weeks are huge. We'll either be out of it, or in the thick of it.


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Offline  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#52

Posted: August 25, 2019, 6:01 AM Post
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They’re toast. Have been since May. Season was lost back in December-March when the FO failed to adequately staff the roster with MLB quality starting pitching. September will be how far can they climb in the 2020 draft order.


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Offline  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#53

Posted: August 25, 2019, 7:12 AM Post
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Have to take 2 of 3 from both the Cards and Cubs this week. It's make or break time.

Nats are exposing Cubs.

The favorite clearly is St. Louis at this point.


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Offline  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#54

Posted: August 25, 2019, 7:27 AM Post
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JohnBriggs12 said:
Have to take 2 of 3 from both the Cards and Cubs this week. It's make or break time.

Nats are exposing Cubs.

The favorite clearly is St. Louis at this point.


Nobody is ‘exposing’ the Cubs; they are and remain a talented but underachieving team.

The Nationals have been playing .666 baseball since June 1st so it should be no surprise to see them go through the Cubs with ease


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Offline  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#55

Posted: August 25, 2019, 6:42 PM Post
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Cards definitely asserting themselves. Cubs now have to face the Big 3 of the Mets so they could potentially be in deep trouble after that series.


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Offline  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#56

Posted: August 25, 2019, 8:08 PM Post
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Minigoon said:
They’re toast. Have been since May. Season was lost back in December-March when the FO failed to adequately staff the roster with MLB quality starting pitching. September will be how far can they climb in the 2020 draft order.


umm, the only person they missed out on was probably Wade Miley. Even then, there could be many reasons he wasn't back. Doug Melvin used to say that he wouldn't pursue someone that didn't want to be here. Maybe Wade wanted down south all along.


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Online  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#57

Posted: August 26, 2019, 10:56 AM Post
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Actually, someone here posted something not long ago that had Miley stating he wanted to stay in Milwaukee...


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Offline  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#58

Posted: August 28, 2019, 4:30 AM Post
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Last year on this date the Brewers were 6 games out of first place and were wrapping up a stretch where during the month of August they had games where they had given up 21, 11, 8, 10, 8, 8, 9, 9, 9, and 12 runs.

It’s funny that, since the season ended up well (until NLCS game 7), we tend to forget the rockiness of the path.

This IGT page may have been the low point:

viewtopic.php?f=65&t=37476&start=120


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Offline  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#59

Posted: August 28, 2019, 5:34 AM Post
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What was their run differential on this date? Anyone know how to figure that to compare?

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#60

Posted: August 28, 2019, 6:05 AM Post
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Location: Wisconsin
Brew4U said:
What was their run differential on this date? Anyone know how to figure that to compare?


It’s easy to get from Baseball Reference with no calculation needed by using the “schedule and results” feature.

On August 27, 2018 the Brewers were 73-59 with a run differential of plus 23 (581-558). They were 5 games behind the Cubs and in the second wild card spot, a half game behind the Cards for the first wild card spot. In other words, they were in a significantly better position in the standings with a demonstrably stronger team. They had also won 5 of their last 7 games, showing some signs of life.

Comparisons between last season and this season have been irrelevant all along, mainly because of the massive differences between the bullpens. Even with the good bullpen last year, it did look like the Brewers were in trouble in August because the starting pitching was collapsing and the bullpen was showing the strain. Remember Knebel’s “ time out”. The September call ups propped up the pitching enough to allow the late season charge to the division title. The chances of a similar charge this year are next to nothing, and they might need something like it just to get the second wild card spot.


Last edited by BruisedCrew on August 28, 2019, 8:59 AM, edited 1 time in total.

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