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Will we win the NL Central?

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Online  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#41

Posted: August 10, 2019, 7:21 PM Post
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My Cubs? What?


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Offline  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#42

Posted: August 10, 2019, 7:57 PM Post
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rickh150 said:
Ennder said:
Anyone bringing up the loss column doesn't get how this works, it is still way too early for that to matter.

It isn't very likely that the Brewers take the central just because they are behind 2 teams. The Cubs are not a very good team though so not like they will be hard to catch. Just a matter of which team gets hot in a small sample.


How does this loss column work in your mind? Explain, please.

I, for one, look at the loss column as a secondary thing after record and games behind/ahead because those losses are games that you simply can't get back. It is Never too early to look at the loss column and games played because it gives a better view of how things actually are in a playoff race.


The loss column doesn't start to matter until one team can realistically come close to winning out. Until that point the simple games back is all that matters. The Brewers have 45 games left to play and are 2.5 games back right now. Unless you think the Cubs are going to go like 40-5 over that stretch the loss column just has no meaning at all yet. The games back is all that matters. If this were still say April and the Brewers were 2.5 games back with 140 games to go nobody would be quoting the loss column so clearly at some point the loss column doesn't matter. Someone could probably do the math to find the perfect number but for me it is likely somewhere in the 20's for games left. If the Brewers are 2.5 games back with say 22 games to play, even if they play an insane 18-4 over that stretch the fact they are 3 games back in the loss column could still make them miss the playoffs. By the time we are at say 10 games to go the loss column is just huge. But at 46 games left to go it has no real meaning.


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Online  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#43

Posted: August 10, 2019, 8:07 PM Post
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Loss column also matters more when the teams competing have a wide gap in games remaining on their schedules...much was made of the loss column last year around this time due to all the looming cub makeup games when the brewers had off days. While the cubs didn't crater down the stretch they were definitely gassed, which helped a hot brewer team gain in the standings as september rolled along. Those extra games start looking much harder to avoid losing when you are tired and don't have a deep 40 man to count on

This year, loss column isnt that critical to track separately since the games remaining are all very close...just track the standings


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Offline  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#44

Posted: August 12, 2019, 3:10 PM Post
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Location: New Berlin, WI
Knock on wood here, but since the all-star break...4 of the 5 currently in the starting rotation have pitched pretty well. ERA's are 2.45, 6.23, 3.20, 4.00, and 1.59...I'll add that Lyles number in here is as a Brewer only.

The bullpen has been a serious problem since the all-star break. I bet without looking, I could give you all 4 guesses as to which reliever with 10+ appearances has the lowest ERA/WHIP since the break...and nobody would guess it was Junior Guerra with a 3.00 ERA and 0.87 WHIP.

The offense has also obviously been the biggest problem. Hiura, Yelich, Braun, and Pina have OPS over 900 since the all-star break. Nobody else is over 800. Moose is 689, Cain is 746, Arcia is 457, Grandal 641, Thames 726, Gamel 599, Grisham 790. And August has been specifically bad for most of these guys.

So obviously, need a few guys to step up offensively and a couple bullpen arms to find it and become lockdown guys over the next month. I'm specifically looking at Moose, Grandal, Cain, Jeffress and Hader. Those are guys that need to start producing immediately if we're going to make the playoffs.


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Offline  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#45

Posted: August 16, 2019, 7:58 PM Post
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Location: Milwaukee
Guess I was wrong about the Cubs. They are imploding at the seams. Guess this is between us and Cards.


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Offline  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#46

Posted: August 16, 2019, 8:22 PM Post
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BMB777 said:
Guess I was wrong about the Cubs. They are imploding at the seams. Guess this is between us and Cards.


The Cubs are trying to give it away, but so are the Brewers. Houser pitches a gem and the pen (Guerra) implodes once again. Another total collapse by the offense too. 12 Ks including the 2,3,& 5 hitters whiffing 8 times. 13 LOB and 2/10 w/RISP. This was a game a playoff contender should have won. Both the Brewers and Cubs have to hope the Cards start faltering again, or they both will be going home instead of going to the playoffs.


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Offline  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#47

Posted: August 16, 2019, 8:35 PM Post
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They’ve allowed more runs than all but two NL teams, and 8(!) teams in the NL have scored more runs. They’ve apparently had good luck because those stats portend a much worse record and certainly aren’t the kind of numbers that playoff teams or division champs have


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Online  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#48

Posted: August 16, 2019, 8:49 PM Post
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It doesn't matter what we have done up to this point or what our record should be. All that matters is from now till the end of the year. Which is not a lot of time and one big streak (either bad/good) could write your season. Will they have to play better to make the postseason? I would imagine...and they can.


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Offline  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#49

Posted: August 17, 2019, 6:56 AM Post
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Location: Green Bay for the summer!
treego14 said:
30% chance for us ...
50% chance for Cubs ...
20% chance for Cards.


The Cubs will not win the division because they struggle on the road big time. If we start hitting our chances improve. Right now I'd have to give the edge to the Cards - and that doesn't give me any pleasure in the least. [tongue]


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Offline  Re: Will we win the NL Central?
#50

Posted: August 17, 2019, 7:32 AM Post
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The Cubs have 21 home games left, where they play .683 baseball. Playing at that percentage they’ll win 14 of those 21.

They have 19 road games left where they’ve played .371 baseball, at that place they’d win 7 of those 19. Adding 21 wins would put the Cubs at 85-77.

Can the Brewers go 23-17 over their remaining 40 games (9 games left against St.L and 7 left against Chi). That’s probably the minimum they can do and have a realistic shot at winning the division


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