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Long-term extension thoughts: Hiura and Grisham

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Offline  Long-term extension thoughts: Hiura and Grisham
#1

Posted: August 10, 2019, 11:45 PM Post
Posts: 19593
Recently, particularly with the Braves, we've seen a trend of long-term extensions for extremely young players. It makes sense for an organization like the Brewers, who certainly would want to keep their own homegrown talent but lack the capital to keep superstars if they are allowed to hit free agency. While extending guys into their mid to late 30's isn't something I'm particularly fond of, locking up 22 year old players for the prime of their career is different. I'd also add that with a new CBA coming up in the coming years, there may be more of an urgency to lock up core players now, not knowing how control of these players will look later. If someone like Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies are willing to do so, would a player like Keston Hiura also be interested?

If he is, he probably is looking at the 8 year, 100M extension for Acuna as the baseline for an extension for himself. Of course, Acuna is a well more complete prospect than Hiura, and I think the Brewers would be looking for something closer to the Ozzie Albies deal. That's a fairly significant gap, but perhaps there's a middle ground here.

Something for Hiura might be structured along these lines:

2020: 1M

2021: 2M

2022: 3M

2023: 8M

2024: 10M

2025: 12M

2026: 17M

2026: 20M team option with 5M buyout

2027: 20M team option with 5M buyout

The bare minimum guarantee to Hiura in this deal would be $63M over 6 years, with a maximum value of $93M over 8 years.

Why it might work for the Brewers: If they believe Hiura is a core player and his performance so far is indicative of what he can bring, it's a great value. They never go over 17M without an option, and the buyouts are reasonable if things go south. In no way is this a crippling deal.

Why it might work for Hiura: Simply put, 63 million dollars, bird in the hand. If Hiura has any concerns about his long-term defensive ability or his elbow, why not cash in now? He gets paid more than a traditional 0-3 player in his first 3 years, and can earn nearly the full 100M in this contract if he is anything close to what they expect.

Trent Grisham is an entirely different situation, and with him, maybe it's just too soon. If you're signing Grisham long-term, you're looking for a substantial discount -- after all, he's been in the big leagues all of two weeks, he wasn't considered a top prospect coming into this season, and there's really no rush. Still, if you look at him as a building block and can lock in significant savings now, it's not a bad idea. Grisham would resemble much closer to a Lucroy type extension than a Acuna one. Off the top of my head, I'd guess a reasonable offer right now would look something like:

2020: 1M

2021: 1M

2022: 1M

2023: 4M

2024: 6M

2025: 8M

2026: 10M team option with 2M buyout

2027: 11M team option with 2M buyout

In Grisham's case, it's either a 6 year/$25M deal, a 7 year/$33M deal, or a 8 year/$42M deal.

So if this is such a lowball, why would Grisham do it? Well, this is a guy who entered this year in AA Biloxi and many felt his MLB dreams were starting to fade. Now that you're here, if you have a chance to cash in on it and take care of yourself and your family for life, is that opportunity too good to pass up? $25M, guaranteed, with a signature, to a kid who had never played above Class AA before this season.

In any event, these are just my thoughts, I'm sure some will believe that I'm off on estimates, or that it's far too early for either to even consider. But I think it's an idea at least worth kicking around for the organization -- investing in your young talent is something that not only often proves to be a worthy investment, but generates fan excitement to commit to keeping players here for the primes of their careers.


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Offline  Re: Long-term extension thoughts: Hiura and Grisham
#2

Posted: August 11, 2019, 6:00 AM Post
Posts: 2070
If it were YOUR actual money, would you give so much guaranteed $ to a player after a mere partial season? We had numerous Bf net people giving Arcia a huge contract a year ago, and now it's conceivable that he is not with the team in the short or long term. There is no rush with either player now since they are playing for the league minimum through 2022. Give it a couple years.
If this were the NFL where contracts aren't guaranteed and signing bonuses are the real discussion, then I would think more earnestly on the topic, not now.
Hader is the better debate now.


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Offline  Re: Long-term extension thoughts: Hiura and Grisham
#3

Posted: August 11, 2019, 6:38 AM Post
Posts: 3060
Hiura = Eloy Jimenez contract

Grisham > 8 years

Been beating this drum for a while now, easy decision on both to do 8 years. 9 years would be better, but a new precedent would have to be set, I believe. This is the not risky, this is a necessity for our future to extend a window of title contention, and this is step #1.


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Offline  Re: Long-term extension thoughts: Hiura and Grisham
#4

Posted: August 11, 2019, 6:56 AM Post
Posts: 3017
I am the biggest supporter of Grisham as anybody but he has to show a little more consistency to get big money. Hiura has been an elite hitter since the day they drafted him, extend him if he is willing.


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Online  Re: Long-term extension thoughts: Hiura and Grisham
#5

Posted: August 11, 2019, 7:32 AM Post
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Hiura yes. Grisham not yet.


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Offline  Re: Long-term extension thoughts: Hiura and Grisham
#6

Posted: August 11, 2019, 7:40 AM Post
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Neither. Maybe next season.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: Long-term extension thoughts: Hiura and Grisham
#7

Posted: August 11, 2019, 7:44 AM Post
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Offseason for hiura, yes by all means

For grisham, I'd want to see a bit more and revisit around this time next year


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Online  Re: Long-term extension thoughts: Hiura and Grisham
#8

Posted: August 11, 2019, 8:50 AM Post
Posts: 1114
I would approach Hiura about it in the off season but would at least wait a year or two on Trent.


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Offline  Re: Long-term extension thoughts: Hiura and Grisham
#9

Posted: August 11, 2019, 9:05 AM Post
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Can’t be a “risk adverse” consistently below league average payroll and expect to win a World Series. Sign Grisham now, save 40 million. The stats AND eyes tell the truth, every bit the player, now and in the future that Hiura is.


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Offline  Re: Long-term extension thoughts: Hiura and Grisham
#10

Posted: August 11, 2019, 9:08 AM Post
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You also just cannot toss around endless amounts of money on any player you want to including a player that while looks good right now has not had the track record Hiura has as a pro ball player. That’s how you end up in no mans land as a franchise because you don’t have endless resources.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: Long-term extension thoughts: Hiura and Grisham
#11

Posted: August 11, 2019, 9:18 AM Post
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I would be a proponent of working something out with Keston Hiura this off-season. Christian Yelich signed a seven-year, $49.57 million deal (with a club option for an eighth year) in the spring before his age-23 season. He had more total MLB experience (1.5 years in the majors at that point), but a similar concept to locking up Hiura with some amount of cost certainty.


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Offline  Re: Long-term extension thoughts: Hiura and Grisham
#12

Posted: August 11, 2019, 9:27 AM Post
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Grisham is going to be a superstar type player, and I’m not the only one who has that opinion. And because it looks like our payroll will always be below league average, it is precisely that fact, as to why we can’t wait.


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Offline  Re: Long-term extension thoughts: Hiura and Grisham
#13

Posted: August 11, 2019, 10:02 AM Post
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Brew crew 92 said:
Grisham is going to be a superstar type player, and I’m not the only one who has that opinion. And because it looks like our payroll will always be below league average, it is precisely that fact, as to why we can’t wait.


Payroll limitations are one good reason to be cautious when offering early extensions. You don't want a ton of dollars wrapped up in guys that don't plan out.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Long-term extension thoughts: Hiura and Grisham
#14

Posted: August 11, 2019, 10:22 AM Post
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It's a risk either way but I'd rather take risks on someone like Grisham or Hiura than give another 5 million to Neftali Feliz, or signing Cain for 16mil a year.


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Online  Re: Long-term extension thoughts: Hiura and Grisham
#15

Posted: August 11, 2019, 10:33 AM Post
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Can someone clear this up for the board?

If we don't extend either player, how long do we have them under team control?


Last edited by turborickey on August 11, 2019, 1:41 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Long-term extension thoughts: Hiura and Grisham
#16

Posted: August 11, 2019, 10:34 AM Post
Posts: 4735
Brew crew 92 said:
Grisham is going to be a superstar type player, and I’m not the only one who has that opinion. And because it looks like our payroll will always be below league average, it is precisely that fact, as to why we can’t wait.


Honestly given your history pimping all our young "aces" and superpen, I'm more inclined to DFA Grisham than sign him to an extension at this point if that's what you think of him.


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Online  Re: Long-term extension thoughts: Hiura and Grisham
#17

Posted: August 11, 2019, 10:41 AM Post
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Brew crew 92 said:
Grisham is going to be a superstar type player, and I’m not the only one who has that opinion. And because it looks like our payroll will always be below league average, it is precisely that fact, as to why we can’t wait.


I know you have cut the brake lines, but drag your feet, downshift, do something, because you really need to tap the brakes on some of your prospect love.


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Offline  Re: Long-term extension thoughts: Hiura and Grisham
#18

Posted: August 11, 2019, 11:38 AM Post
Posts: 19593
rickh150 said:
If it were YOUR actual money, would you give so much guaranteed $ to a player after a mere partial season? We had numerous Bf net people giving Arcia a huge contract a year ago, and now it's conceivable that he is not with the team in the short or long term. There is no rush with either player now since they are playing for the league minimum through 2022. Give it a couple years.
If this were the NFL where contracts aren't guaranteed and signing bonuses are the real discussion, then I would think more earnestly on the topic, not now.
Hader is the better debate now.


Well, if you give it a couple years and they maintain their production, the cost skyrockets. That's the risk/reward with locking up your young talent.

I really don't think anyone has been advocated giving Arcia a "huge" extension in the last year, but the point is taken that he wouldn't be looking like a great extension right now.

On the other hand, the Lucroy young extension was a fantastic value and probably helped his value tremendously when we traded him. And the Braun contract, the first, 8 year/45 deal, turned out to be a fantastic decision.


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Offline  Re: Long-term extension thoughts: Hiura and Grisham
#19

Posted: August 11, 2019, 12:13 PM Post
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If you can get Grisham and Hiura on deals similar to what Acuna or Albies got I think you have to do it.


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Offline  Re: Long-term extension thoughts: Hiura and Grisham
#20

Posted: August 11, 2019, 12:24 PM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Brew crew 92 said:
Grisham is going to be a superstar type player, and I’m not the only one who has that opinion. And because it looks like our payroll will always be below league average, it is precisely that fact, as to why we can’t wait.


I know you have cut the brake lines, but drag your feet, downshift, do something, because you really need to tap the brakes on some of your prospect love.


That’s what what you told me a month ago when I said the crew should call up Grisham to ignite this offense.


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