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Long-term extension thoughts: Hiura and Grisham

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Offline  Re: Long-term extension thoughts: Hiura and Grisham
#41

Posted: August 13, 2019, 1:54 PM Post
Posts: 11159
Trent Grisham would essentially be looking at something similar to what Jon Singleton took. 5/$10mil with 3 option years that equal $30mil. Basically securing 8 years of control for the risk of $10mil that is spread out over five years. Maybe some slight increase due to Singleton's deal being a bit outdated.

The risk would be zero for the Brewers. Partially because $2mil or so is a drop in the bucket and partially because it would be almost impossible for Grisham (a guy who can play the entire OF, has speed, and can get on base) to not be worth such a paltry amount.

Honestly I am shocked more of these deals have not happened. If I was a team I would try to do such a deal with players that seem like at worst a 4th OFer, utility player, or backup catcher. Think the Lucroy deal...many thought that deal was really strange for us just because Lucroy seemed so replaceable year to year. But we gave him a bunch of guaranteed money where at worst he would be worth it and maybe we would improve making it a deal for us.


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Online  Re: Long-term extension thoughts: Hiura and Grisham
#42

Posted: August 13, 2019, 2:03 PM Post
Posts: 2337
MrTPlush said:
Trent Grisham would essentially be looking at something similar to what Jon Singleton took. 5/$10mil with 3 option years that equal $30mil. Basically securing 8 years of control for the risk of $10mil that is spread out over five years. Maybe some slight increase due to Singleton's deal being a bit outdated.

The risk would be zero for the Brewers. Partially because $2mil or so is a drop in the bucket and partially because it would be almost impossible for Grisham (a guy who can play the entire OF, has speed, and can get on base) to not be worth such a paltry amount.

Honestly I am shocked more of these deals have not happened. If I was a team I would try to do such a deal with players that seem like at worst a 4th OFer, utility player, or backup catcher. Think the Lucroy deal...many thought that deal was really strange for us just because Lucroy seemed so replaceable year to year. But we gave him a bunch of guaranteed money where at worst he would be worth it and maybe we would improve making it a deal for us.


Great take.
It’s a no brainer. Hiura Grisham > 8 years. Any other core position player do the same thing, saves tens of millions and extends window of title contention by 2 years. Step #1 for small mid-market to have more than a 2% yearly chance at a title.


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Offline  Re: Long-term extension thoughts: Hiura and Grisham
#43

Posted: August 13, 2019, 2:29 PM Post
Posts: 11159
Brew crew 92 said:
MrTPlush said:
Trent Grisham would essentially be looking at something similar to what Jon Singleton took. 5/$10mil with 3 option years that equal $30mil. Basically securing 8 years of control for the risk of $10mil that is spread out over five years. Maybe some slight increase due to Singleton's deal being a bit outdated.

The risk would be zero for the Brewers. Partially because $2mil or so is a drop in the bucket and partially because it would be almost impossible for Grisham (a guy who can play the entire OF, has speed, and can get on base) to not be worth such a paltry amount.

Honestly I am shocked more of these deals have not happened. If I was a team I would try to do such a deal with players that seem like at worst a 4th OFer, utility player, or backup catcher. Think the Lucroy deal...many thought that deal was really strange for us just because Lucroy seemed so replaceable year to year. But we gave him a bunch of guaranteed money where at worst he would be worth it and maybe we would improve making it a deal for us.


Great take.
It’s a no brainer. Hiura Grisham > 8 years. Any other core position player do the same thing, saves tens of millions and extends window of title contention by 2 years. Step #1 for small mid-market to have more than a 2% yearly chance at a title.


It should be interesting how Stearns approaches extending internal players. If I am correct the only deal to date has been Chase Anderson. Which was a wise near zero risk deal that worked well for both sides.

Can't say they have a ton of obvious guys going into the offseason. I bet Shaw was offered some nice money both of the last two years...dodged a bullet on that one.

You just have to be wise about extensions and not find yourself having $20mil+ a year sunk into failed extensions. Especially guys who are total wastes and not even providing value to the team. We as a small market can definitely not afford to have that kind of waste sitting around.


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Offline  Re: Long-term extension thoughts: Hiura and Grisham
#44

Posted: August 13, 2019, 2:34 PM Post
Posts: 4393
Location: Madison, WI
If things are as team friendly as Plush just said then yes sure things make sense to talk about with Grisham. For Huira, he's going to be more in the ATL guy type of ranges for some legit money. He looks like as good of a lock as you can get when it comes to being able to hit so the sooner you start with him the better. Grisham has just such a small sample of being good you'd like to see a bit more, but if it's that team friendly it's really low risk


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Offline  Re: Long-term extension thoughts: Hiura and Grisham
#45

Posted: August 13, 2019, 2:36 PM Post
Posts: 72
brewcrewdue80 said:
You mean potential, not pedigree. What led to this production? A setup change? How he holds the bat? The leg kick? Remember how that helped Broxton for a short time? This is why I want 300games before you consider an extension. Old habits die hard, this offseason Grisham returns a little to old habits and goes back to the unremarkable prospect he was leading in to '19? You have him controlled 6more seasons. You cant jump at the first sign of production. Wily Peralta?


Yes, he went back to an interlocking golf grip that he used in high school.


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Online  Re: Long-term extension thoughts: Hiura and Grisham
#46

Posted: August 13, 2019, 2:47 PM Post
Posts: 2337
MrTPlush said:
Brew crew 92 said:
MrTPlush said:
Trent Grisham would essentially be looking at something similar to what Jon Singleton took. 5/$10mil with 3 option years that equal $30mil. Basically securing 8 years of control for the risk of $10mil that is spread out over five years. Maybe some slight increase due to Singleton's deal being a bit outdated.

The risk would be zero for the Brewers. Partially because $2mil or so is a drop in the bucket and partially because it would be almost impossible for Grisham (a guy who can play the entire OF, has speed, and can get on base) to not be worth such a paltry amount.

Honestly I am shocked more of these deals have not happened. If I was a team I would try to do such a deal with players that seem like at worst a 4th OFer, utility player, or backup catcher. Think the Lucroy deal...many thought that deal was really strange for us just because Lucroy seemed so replaceable year to year. But we gave him a bunch of guaranteed money where at worst he would be worth it and maybe we would improve making it a deal for us.


Great take.
It’s a no brainer. Hiura Grisham > 8 years. Any other core position player do the same thing, saves tens of millions and extends window of title contention by 2 years. Step #1 for small mid-market to have more than a 2% yearly chance at a title.


It should be interesting how Stearns approaches extending internal players. If I am correct the only deal to date has been Chase Anderson. Which was a wise near zero risk deal that worked well for both sides.

Can't say they have a ton of obvious guys going into the offseason. I bet Shaw was offered some nice money both of the last two years...dodged a bullet on that one.

You just have to be wise about extensions and not find yourself having $20mil+ a year sunk into failed extensions. Especially guys who are total wastes and not even providing value to the team. We as a small market can definitely not afford to have that kind of waste sitting around.


Exactly, wise is the word here.

Position players only, during their prime performance years. No exceptions. Simple.


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Offline  Re: Long-term extension thoughts: Hiura and Grisham
#47

Posted: August 13, 2019, 2:48 PM Post
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Pump the brakes a bit on Trent Grisham...

Would you have signed a player like Jake Marisnick to a long term deal when he came up with the Astros after one good minor league season?

Grisham has a similar profile of a nice 4th outfielder.

What’s the rush?

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Offline  Re: Long-term extension thoughts: Hiura and Grisham
#48

Posted: August 13, 2019, 3:21 PM Post
Posts: 3686
ctmyers said:
brewcrewdue80 said:
You mean potential, not pedigree. What led to this production? A setup change? How he holds the bat? The leg kick? Remember how that helped Broxton for a short time? This is why I want 300games before you consider an extension. Old habits die hard, this offseason Grisham returns a little to old habits and goes back to the unremarkable prospect he was leading in to '19? You have him controlled 6more seasons. You cant jump at the first sign of production. Wily Peralta?


Yes, he went back to an interlocking golf grip that he used in high school.



He also made a significant change to his stance. He had a much more open stance.


Anyway, I'd definitely do Hiura. He's the exact type of player you extend. Buyout 2 years of free agency(I'd guess they'd need to be guaranteed and not options) and you have a very good hitter locked in for the next 8 years.

Grisham, he's just not that clear cut of a guy yet. Not for a corner OF'er. A big difference between a second baseman who was considered the best pure hitter in the draft and is now performing at a very high level in the Big Leagues vs a toolsy prep prospect who put it all together this year.


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Offline  Re: Long-term extension thoughts: Hiura and Grisham
#49

Posted: August 13, 2019, 3:38 PM Post
Posts: 3686
A Swing and A Drive said:
Pump the brakes a bit on Trent Grisham...

Would you have signed a player like Jake Marisnick to a long term deal when he came up with the Astros after one good minor league season?

Grisham has a similar profile of a nice 4th outfielder.

What’s the rush?



And how is Grisham comparable to Jake Marisnick? He wasn't a 1st round pick, was never as highly regarded as Grisham was, never had the type of year Grisham had and was never a considered a top draft pick.


Two things. Can we stop with these random straw man arguments like, "what about all the people that wanted player X signed and now look," and then can we just pump the brakes on telling other people to "Lets just pump the brakes."

Everyone understands these are hypothetical discussions and nobody on here is actually in charge of anything, right? So you're telling other people to pump the brakes on their hypothetical questions/opinions?


It's one thing if you're notoriously over the top in predicting aces and future MVP's...

Anyway, absolutely sign Grisham if he'd be willing to take the deal that I think T Plush suggested. A team-friendly deal like that could be insanely team-friendly and at worst....slightly overpaying for a typical 4th OF'er.

Hiura, I'd guess the Brewers would be interested and it'd be up to him to sign. I'd love to see him locked up for 8 years.


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Offline  Re: Long-term extension thoughts: Hiura and Grisham
#50

Posted: August 13, 2019, 4:02 PM Post
Posts: 11159
A Swing and A Drive said:
Pump the brakes a bit on Trent Grisham...

Would you have signed a player like Jake Marisnick to a long term deal when he came up with the Astros after one good minor league season?

Grisham has a similar profile of a nice 4th outfielder.

What’s the rush?


We are talking about pennies here. If Grisham was willing to take security of 8 figures, why not? Also if I remember right the Astros pretty much made it an even $2mil a year so it was a bit more attractive to Singleton as he got an extra $4.5mil in his pre arbitration years instead of going $500k a year for three years.

Using your example though, Marisnick made $4.5mil the first five years of his career...an overpayment of about $5.5mil on 5/$10mil contract. Or about $1.1mil a year

Further supporting the fact there is zero risk for the Brewers. Of course who knows if such a deal even interests Grisham, likely not...but it’s a fairly sensible attempt from the teams perspective.


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Offline  Re: Long-term extension thoughts: Hiura and Grisham
#51

Posted: August 13, 2019, 4:58 PM Post
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HiAndTight said:
And how is Grisham comparable to Jake Marisnick? He wasn't a 1st round pick, was never as highly regarded as Grisham was, never had the type of year Grisham had and was never a considered a top draft pick.


Marisnick AA age 22 | 298 PAs | 294/358/502 | 150 wRC+
Grisham AA age 22 | 283 PAs | 254/371/504 | 151 wRC+

Marisnick was also ranked 28 (BPro) 58 (MLB) 67 (BA) pre-2012; 71 (BPro) 70 (MLB) 64 (BA) pre-2013 & 65 (MLB) 79 (BA) pre-2014 because he performed throughout the minors from day one (142 wRC+ in R, 152 in A, 127 in A+).

Where Grisham came in at 99 (BPro) 83 (MLB) 49 (BA) pre-2016 & 99 (BPro) pre-2017, but fell off because he never put up elite numbers (outside of BB%) until this year.


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Offline  Re: Long-term extension thoughts: Hiura and Grisham
#52

Posted: August 13, 2019, 10:14 PM Post
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The original post was well thought out and explained.

Would love to lock up Hiura long term if he’d be game.

In Grisham’s case, he could revert back to his old form and the Brewers would have a Jon Singleton situation on their hands.

Since we control him for the next 6 years anyway, I doubt Brewers would even entertain the small financial risk, when it’s not warranted.

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