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2020 Brewers Starters

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Offline  Re: 2020 Brewers Starters
#41

Posted: August 13, 2019, 8:59 AM Post
Posts: 11159
Surhoff5 said:
I guess my problem with this thinking is that if they signed Wade Miley and Gio, who was going to be out of the rotation? Chacin was a lock after the way he pitched last year. I think Burnes was a lock considering how he pitched out of the bullpen during the playoff run and his prospect status. Davies and Woody were going to be given every chance to start. I have never been high on Freddy, but they had Chase out of the bullpen in case one of the guys failed. Unfortunately, two of the young guys bombed and Chacin pitched worse than he has in a few years.

In the last three years, Stearns has thrown a hodgepodge of starting pitching at the wall. In 2017, Nelson and Anderson pitched like TOR pitchers. In 2018, it was Chacin and Miley. In 2019, it was Woody and Davies early on and Anderson lately. I don't think it's a bad philosophy. Its just everything else went wrong this year, including the bullpen blowing up. How many of the guys that were traded or signed in the last couple years have been good?


Well for starters I wouldn't have signed both. Personally I wanted Miley because he seemed more like a guy who could pitch deeper into games...whereas Gonzalez is getting pulled after 5 max. Peralta wouldn't have been anywhere near my rotation.

For what it is worth my rotation would have been the following to start the year:

1) Chacin
2) Miley
3) Burnes
4) Woodruff
5) Anderson

I wouldn't have had a problem rolling the dice on the above rotation. I would have easily slid Burnes out of the rotation if an acceptable deal for a starter had become available. Only reason being you know many injuries/disappointment will happen and Burnes pitched so well out of the pen. What was the worst case there? The rotation is doing well/healthy and there is no spot for Burnes so instead he dominates out of the pen? Can't say that would have been a loss.

Yah, injuries really hit us bad this year...still a pretty disastrous roster construction. Chacin regression is on Stearns though. What I mean is that if you are going to construct a rotation with average starting pitchers like that they almost always have a crap year for you at some point. If he goes into next year with average veteran pitchers and unproven guys it is almost assured to be quite similar results. Maybe a guy or two working out, but a couple disappointments to match.

Personally I would like to see a dependable starter added that has a track record of success. Woodruff, Anderson, and Davies should all be good bets to get close to expectations...which naturally means one will probably be a notable disappointment. I don't like filling the last two spots with wild card types. They need another dependable guys to hopefully give us three good starters and ideally a fourth too.

The way the rotation was constructed going into the year it isn't really shocking the majority totally bombed. Stearns needs to put the team in a position where multiple starters aren't needed at the deadline. That is not a good place to be.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Brewers Starters
#42

Posted: August 13, 2019, 9:08 AM Post
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Posts: 144
MrTPlush said:
Well for starters I wouldn't have signed both. Personally I wanted Miley because he seemed more like a guy who could pitch deeper into games...whereas Gonzalez is getting pulled after 5 max. Peralta wouldn't have been anywhere near my rotation.

For what it is worth my rotation would have been the following to start the year:

1) Chacin
2) Miley
3) Burnes
4) Woodruff
5) Anderson

I wouldn't have had a problem rolling the dice on the above rotation. I would have easily slid Burnes out of the rotation if an acceptable deal for a starter had become available. Only reason being you know many injuries/disappointment will happen and Burnes pitched so well out of the pen. What was the worst case there? The rotation is doing well/healthy and there is no spot for Burnes so instead he dominates out of the pen? Can't say that would have been a loss.

Yah, injuries really hit us bad this year...still a pretty disastrous roster construction. Chacin regression is on Stearns though. What I mean is that if you are going to construct a rotation with average starting pitchers like that they almost always have a crap year for you at some point. If he goes into next year with average veteran pitchers and unproven guys it is almost assured to be quite similar results. Maybe a guy or two working out, but a couple disappointments to match.

Personally I would like to see a dependable starter added that has a track record of success. Woodruff, Anderson, and Davies should all be good bets to get close to expectations...which naturally means one will probably be a notable disappointment. I don't like filling the last two spots with wild card types. They need another dependable guys to hopefully give us three good starters and ideally a fourth too.

The way the rotation was constructed going into the year it isn't really shocking the majority totally bombed. Stearns needs to put the team in a position where multiple starters aren't needed at the deadline. That is not a good place to be.


I think we are pretty much on the same page. My only thing is that you could have just as easily said that about Woody as you did about Burnes starting the year in the bullpen. They had to let those two guys start in my opinion. A small market team like the Brewers needs to develop young pitching. Burnes was a disaster, but I think if you asked most people before the year, he was much more of a guarantee than Woody...and I am the world's biggest Woodruff fan.

I also agree that they should have resigned Miley and that Peralta should have been nowhere near the rotation. That is my only complaint of the offseason. He was just so cheap and according to some sources, wanted to be in Milwaukee. If they would have resigned Miley, I am guessing it would have been Davies to the bullpen (considering he was our #5 to start the season)... but to have him and Anderson as depth would have saved them from regression/poor performances.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Brewers Starters
#43

Posted: August 13, 2019, 9:24 AM Post
Posts: 11159
Surhoff5 said:
If they would have resigned Miley, I am guessing it would have been Davies to the bullpen (considering he was our #5 to start the season)... but to have him and Anderson as depth would have saved them from regression/poor performances.


Looking back I think this was a big mistake going into the season. Their only real depth was Chase Anderson. Being realistic we knew one of those three young starters was going to bomb. After that who was the solid depth, no one. If we aren't going to have elite starters we better make sure we have the depth to always have reliable guys. I mean thank god the rotation bombed fast enough so we decided to pick up Gonzalez.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Brewers Starters
#44

Posted: August 13, 2019, 9:31 AM Post
Posts: 356
A Swing and A Drive said:
JosephC said:
A Swing and A Drive said:


2. Trade a combination of Davies/Anderson/Burnes and prospects to Orioles for Dylan Bundy



Please find somebody with an ERA and FIP under 5 in their last 300 innings the next time you talk about trading away Davies or Anderson or Burnes (much less a combination of them plus prospects to boot).

I was really high on Dylan Bundy two years ago but have come around to the idea that the guy just isn't very good. Late bloomer at 27? Definitely could happen. But I'm not trading away anything of significant value in order to find out.


I'm sure you would have made a similar statement when Orioles traded Jake Arietta to the Cubs at about the same age during a 7.23 ERA season with a 5 FIP.

Bundy has a much higher ceiling than any of the mediocre arms I proposed trading.

Sometimes you need to take a chance on talent, rather than cling to guys that are not difference makers, IMO.


What is Bundy's "higher ceiling"? He tops out at maybe a #4 IF he gets better. Certainly not any more of a difference maker than what the Brewer's already have. I'd rather have an Anderson who is doing very well, than let him go for a guy who has shown absolutely nothing and has pitched much worse than any of the three you'd trade for him.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Brewers Starters
#45

Posted: August 13, 2019, 3:53 PM Post
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I could see the Crew go with Woodruff, Davies, Anderson, then look for one of Nelson, Houser, Peralta or Burnes to step into another slot.

Finally, I wouldn't be shocked if they added a FA arm. Sure they will look at the good players - but they will cost a ton (which means we won't sign Cole or Strasburg. Instead, we'll go after a solid, innings eater type. They'll look for reliability over risk.

Again, that's just a guess.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Brewers Starters
#46

Posted: August 13, 2019, 10:06 PM Post
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Posts: 356
Location: Chicago
Stearns repeatedly said he likes his pitching better than most therefore 2020 starters likely to be: Woodruff, Davies, Anderson, Burnes and Houser/Jimmy Nelson.

Stearns didn’t throw away millions on Nelson for nothing; he’ll get another chance.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Brewers Starters
#47

Posted: August 14, 2019, 6:00 AM Post
Posts: 480
Id they’re not willing to invest in pitching with a front end and back end rotation addition, they might as well go full on rebuild


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Offline  Re: 2020 Brewers Starters
#48

Posted: August 14, 2019, 8:21 AM Post
Posts: 356
Jopal78! said:
Stearns repeatedly said he likes his pitching better than most therefore 2020 starters likely to be: Woodruff, Davies, Anderson, Burnes and Houser/Jimmy Nelson.

Stearns didn’t throw away millions on Nelson for nothing; he’ll get another chance.


Burnes has been so awful he is quickly pitching himself out of the picture. He just got demoted to AA, and is now nothing more than a pie-in-the-sky candidate to even make the big leagues next year. Nelson is in danger of non-renewal and still unable to pitch. I think Stearns may use Davies as part of a deal for a #2-3 starter over the winter.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Brewers Starters
#49

Posted: August 14, 2019, 8:41 AM Post
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wntrtxn21 said:
Jopal78! said:
Stearns repeatedly said he likes his pitching better than most therefore 2020 starters likely to be: Woodruff, Davies, Anderson, Burnes and Houser/Jimmy Nelson.

Stearns didn’t throw away millions on Nelson for nothing; he’ll get another chance.


Burnes has been so awful he is quickly pitching himself out of the picture. He just got demoted to AA, and is now nothing more than a pie-in-the-sky candidate to even make the big leagues next year. Nelson is in danger of non-renewal and still unable to pitch. I think Stearns may use Davies as part of a deal for a #2-3 starter over the winter.


Nelson pitched a scoreless inning (1 K, 1 BB) for San Antonio last night.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Brewers Starters
#50

Posted: August 14, 2019, 8:56 AM Post
Posts: 11159
If Nelson can make himself look even half relevant either in AAA or the MLB level by the end of the year I am sure they will pay him the ~$3.7mil to come back. If he doesn't they may still offer him arby and bring him into ST with the option of dumping him if he looks terrible then too.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Brewers Starters
#51

Posted: August 14, 2019, 9:37 AM Post
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Posts: 10030
wntrtxn21 said:
Jopal78! said:
Stearns repeatedly said he likes his pitching better than most therefore 2020 starters likely to be: Woodruff, Davies, Anderson, Burnes and Houser/Jimmy Nelson.

Stearns didn’t throw away millions on Nelson for nothing; he’ll get another chance.


Burnes has been so awful he is quickly pitching himself out of the picture. He just got demoted to AA, and is now nothing more than a pie-in-the-sky candidate to even make the big leagues next year. Nelson is in danger of non-renewal and still unable to pitch. I think Stearns may use Davies as part of a deal for a #2-3 starter over the winter.


I think it's time to stop thinking that Davies has any value at all.

People keep throwing his name out there as a trade candidate, but who on earth wants him as anything more that rotation filler, and only if necessary.

We'd get nothing for him, zero.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Brewers Starters
#52

Posted: August 14, 2019, 9:39 AM Post
Posts: 1997
turborickey said:
wntrtxn21 said:
Jopal78! said:
Stearns repeatedly said he likes his pitching better than most therefore 2020 starters likely to be: Woodruff, Davies, Anderson, Burnes and Houser/Jimmy Nelson.

Stearns didn’t throw away millions on Nelson for nothing; he’ll get another chance.


Burnes has been so awful he is quickly pitching himself out of the picture. He just got demoted to AA, and is now nothing more than a pie-in-the-sky candidate to even make the big leagues next year. Nelson is in danger of non-renewal and still unable to pitch. I think Stearns may use Davies as part of a deal for a #2-3 starter over the winter.


I think it's time to stop thinking that Davies has any value at all.

People keep throwing his name out there as a trade candidate, but who on earth wants him as anything more that rotation filler, and only if necessary.

We'd get nothing for him, zero.


I agree. That is why you can put his name in ink for the rotation or bullpen for us in 2020. Davies has more value to us, then what we can get for him in a trade.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Brewers Starters
#53

Posted: August 14, 2019, 9:43 AM Post
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turborickey said:
wntrtxn21 said:
Jopal78! said:
Stearns repeatedly said he likes his pitching better than most therefore 2020 starters likely to be: Woodruff, Davies, Anderson, Burnes and Houser/Jimmy Nelson.

Stearns didn’t throw away millions on Nelson for nothing; he’ll get another chance.


Burnes has been so awful he is quickly pitching himself out of the picture. He just got demoted to AA, and is now nothing more than a pie-in-the-sky candidate to even make the big leagues next year. Nelson is in danger of non-renewal and still unable to pitch. I think Stearns may use Davies as part of a deal for a #2-3 starter over the winter.


I think it's time to stop thinking that Davies has any value at all.

People keep throwing his name out there as a trade candidate, but who on earth wants him as anything more that rotation filler, and only if necessary.

We'd get nothing for him, zero.


I am of the opposite opinion. Why would a team that struggles to find solid starting pitching year after year trade off a young, solid starting pitcher? Davies is always going to be a guy who has rough patches when he struggles with his command, but he's proven to be a substantially above average starter when he's on. The people who want to deal him or just get rid of him justify their reasoning by boiling it down to "durrrrr, he don't throw fast #DERP". A guy like Davies likely holds more value to the Brewers than he would on the trade market.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Brewers Starters
#54

Posted: August 14, 2019, 10:01 AM Post
Posts: 604
Location: Washburn, WI
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
turborickey said:
wntrtxn21 said:

Burnes has been so awful he is quickly pitching himself out of the picture. He just got demoted to AA, and is now nothing more than a pie-in-the-sky candidate to even make the big leagues next year. Nelson is in danger of non-renewal and still unable to pitch. I think Stearns may use Davies as part of a deal for a #2-3 starter over the winter.


I think it's time to stop thinking that Davies has any value at all.

People keep throwing his name out there as a trade candidate, but who on earth wants him as anything more that rotation filler, and only if necessary.

We'd get nothing for him, zero.


I am of the opposite opinion. Why would a team that struggles to find solid starting pitching year after year trade off a young, solid starting pitcher? Davies is always going to be a guy who has rough patches when he struggles with his command, but he's proven to be a substantially above average starter when he's on. The people who want to deal him or just get rid of him justify their reasoning by boiling it down to "durrrrr, he don't throw fast #DERP". A guy like Davies likely holds more value to the Brewers than he would on the trade market.


I agree with you. He’s on pace to have a 2 WAR season and is still very cheap. He has been fantastic outside of his last three starts. Every single player will go through struggles during the season. Didn’t Yelich hit something like .220 for a 30 game stretch this season? It happens. Literally every single team in the MLB would take Davies and for some reason, people try to remove him from the rotation and run him out of town all the time. He would be a number 3 or 4 on a good staff. But somehow with how our starting staff has fared this season, we STILL think he sucks and shouldn’t be on the team?

He’s making $2.6 million this season. With Davies’ pedigree, he would be a guy people would be clamoring here for to get on a multi year deal at $10-12 million per season if he wasn’t on our team and was an impending free agent. He would be the exact guy people would say Stearns should target as an under the radar guy who quietly puts up good numbers every year and won’t break the bank. Again, I think this is part of people wanting something “new” because Davies has been here for a while and is not a big strikeout/big name guy. He’s a very good pitcher and is still only 26 years old.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Brewers Starters
#55

Posted: August 15, 2019, 9:28 PM Post
Posts: 2306
I think the panic on this has been wildly overblown.

Woodruff Davies Anderson have done their job.

Hader Peralta Houser Claudio Guerra Albers have done their job. I have hope for Knebel, Devin, Black, Suter and Barker. There are more young arms coming in behind those. The only FA is Albers. That's 10 guys.

The problem was two fold. They didn't have stability and then didn't allow it by shuffling people out of roles where they succeeded.
They need 2 stability starters. Chacin (2018), Miley, Gio and even Lyles have been those guys for us. This year everything they threw at the wall exploded. No one could survive that, and this teams in running distance of the division lead.

Losing Knebel, Jeffress implosion, Burnes and Peralta starting have destoyed this team this year.
It's an analytics design. Those are fragile when player after player has a career worst showing.

Every player listed as doing their job is sitting sub 4.05 ERA. 9 of the 13 needed. Team ERA 4.61 Explain that.
635.2 IP
Their combined ERA is 3.60
Team ERA in 2018 was 3.73

Get back Knebel. Make Faria/Suter the long man. Replace Albers with Black/Devin/Barker
Sign 2 vets who can put up 4 ERA. Like Gio, maybe Lyles. Miley. Like Chacin 2018 version. You don't need much, you just need stability.

Go back to 2018 pitching staff in a blink of an eye.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Brewers Starters
#56

Posted: August 15, 2019, 9:57 PM Post
Posts: 8385
I can buy that to a certain extent. Problem is, the staff is basically 20 guys not 13. In 2018 most of the guys shuttled up were serviceable, this year its been a disaster. I dont think luck is the right word, but seasons seem to work that way. Especially when you're relying on so many young arms.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Brewers Starters
#57

Posted: August 15, 2019, 10:09 PM Post
Posts: 2306
Pen
Knebel Hader Houser Guerra Peralta Black Claudio Faria (long)
Devin, Suter (swing), Barker in AAA to start the year. 11 You can keep Albers and put Freddy down to start and make it 12.
Woodruff Anderson Davies vet 1 vet 2 is 17
Burnes is 18 but you look to add 2 vets who won't refuse assignment. I'd prefer to see Wilkerson 2 times through an order as a starter but clearly they'll never allow it.

20

Not counting guys who could jump to the majors quickly and aid the pen. Rasmussen Andrews and File? How slow do they want to advance 22 year old Small? Plus there are other talented arms in the system who haven't shown to their potential this year. Jankins, Brown, Supak in AAA. Not saying I'd trust them but that's where you might gain 1 in the 20 deep you need to be.

It needs 1 run of the mill RP. Albers would suffice. Jared Hughes would suffice. That type. Maybe even Jeffress could rebound to be that guy.
They need 2 vet steady arms. They need 2 flier non roster pitchers or 1 if they trust Wilkerson to do what he's supposed to do.

I really don't see organizational depth as a major issue (especially in the pen) next year. We have to stop rushing pitchers into the rotation and this year we banked on 2 young guys who really hurt the team.


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Online  Re: 2020 Brewers Starters
#58

Posted: August 17, 2019, 10:21 AM Post
Posts: 2333
2020 staff imo, doesn’t need many outside additions as some think. With everyone back the staff payroll is at ~ 36.7 million. If the staff payroll can increase by ~ 6.5 mil. Then here’s what I’d do:

Trade Hader for prospects > 3 top 100.

Let go of Nelson and Guerra and Claudio > save ~ 10 million add on the 6.5 to get 16.5 million to spend on a starter and pen arm. Gio or Lyles would work. Then add a Quality pen arm.

Rotation:

Woodruff
Veteran starter
Houser
Anderson
Davies
Suter
Peralta
Burnes
Depth starter signing
Supak
Brown

Bullpen:

LHP
Jeffress
Wahl
Black
Williams
Knebel > 2nd half
Andrews
Small
Trade acquisition
Rasmussen
3-5 other arms from below

As good as Hader is > reliever, and can be replaced. 3 top 100 prospects will help our farm. Maybe one will be ML ready?

That’s a solid rotation with a potentially dominant pen, especially the second half if Knebel can rebound.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Brewers Starters
#59

Posted: August 17, 2019, 6:50 PM Post
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Posts: 1461
It's funny how much disagreement there is on Davies' value, but then historically there's been a tendency among fans to underestimate the value of a starting pitcher like him. All you have to do is look at some of the second-tier free agent pitchers from this past offseason and what they've produced (see below, left out Corbin, Eovaldi who were real multiyear guys...Eovaldi has been a huge disaster this year though). A starting pitcher who can take the ball and pitch 160 innings with average or better run prevention is worth serious coin, so much so that teams will gamble $10M on rehabbers or reclamation projects who often turn out worse than replacement level. Davies isn't flashy but he has delivered decent innings, and his arbitration years still carry surplus value as you can hope he'll deliver value well above what his salary would suggest. He's easily in the top 10 Brewers in terms of trade value, might well be top 5. (Sadly, that's not saying much, as we don't have much surplus value in contracts beyond Yelich, Hiura, Hader, and Woodruff right now.)

Happ, 2yr/$34M: 125 IP, 83 ERA+, 0.2 bWAR, 0.8 fWAR
Lynn, 3/$30M: 160 IP, 144 ERA+, 5.8 bWAR, 5.5 fWAR
A Sanchez, 2yr/$19M: 117 IP, 124 ERA+, 2.4 bWAR, 1.8 fWAR (before tonight)
Keuchel, .67yr/$13M: 65 IP, 105 ERA+, 0.7 bWAR, 0.3 fWAR
Harvey, 1yr/$11M: 59 IP, 59 ERA+, -0.5 bWAR, -0.3 fWAR
Cahill, 1yr/$9M: 87 IP, 70 ERA+, -0.6 bWAR, -0.8 fWAR
G Richards, 2yr/$15M: rehabbing

And Davies:
Davies, $2.6M: 122 IP, 122 ERA+, 1.5 bWAR, 1.0 fWAR


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Offline  Re: 2020 Brewers Starters
#60

Posted: August 17, 2019, 7:46 PM Post
Posts: 356
TJseven7 said:
I think the panic on this has been wildly overblown.

Woodruff Davies Anderson have done their job.

Hader Peralta Houser Claudio Guerra Albers have done their job. I have hope for Knebel, Devin, Black, Suter and Barker. There are more young arms coming in behind those. The only FA is Albers. That's 10 guys.

The problem was two fold. They didn't have stability and then didn't allow it by shuffling people out of roles where they succeeded.
They need 2 stability starters. Chacin (2018), Miley, Gio and even Lyles have been those guys for us. This year everything they threw at the wall exploded. No one could survive that, and this teams in running distance of the division lead.

Losing Knebel, Jeffress implosion, Burnes and Peralta starting have destoyed this team this year.
It's an analytics design. Those are fragile when player after player has a career worst showing.

Every player listed as doing their job is sitting sub 4.05 ERA. 9 of the 13 needed. Team ERA 4.61 Explain that.
635.2 IP
Their combined ERA is 3.60
Team ERA in 2018 was 3.73

Get back Knebel. Make Faria/Suter the long man. Replace Albers with Black/Devin/Barker
Sign 2 vets who can put up 4 ERA. Like Gio, maybe Lyles. Miley. Like Chacin 2018 version. You don't need much, you just need stability.

Go back to 2018 pitching staff in a blink of an eye.


I don't see Hadar or Peralta as doing their jobs. Hader has blown 6 saves and he has 6 losses. That's terrible, especially for a guy like Hadar. Peralta has been awful since late July. 7.2 IPs - 10 hits - 12 ERs - 12 BBs. He was beyond horrible tonight again. CC may look to send him back to AAA soon. I think IF Knebel and Wahl come back well next year, add Black, D. Williams, Hadar, Pomeranz (in place of Claudio), Suter and 6th starter as the long men. Faria is a long shot. Peralta and Burnes in AA or AAA as starters. Gio-Davies-Anderson-Woodruff-Houser/Lyles plus an acquistion would vie for the 5 starting spots.


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