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2020 Brewers rotation

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Offline  Re: 2020 Brewers rotation
#41

Posted: October 06, 2019, 2:53 PM Post
Posts: 834
Locks:
Woodruff
Davies

Probable:
Houser

Option/outgoing free agents/arbitration:
Anderson- I think i'd decline the option since I think it's higher than his free agent price so the brewers could save some $$ on that roster spot
Lyles- I'd be interested in pursuing him. Realistically, a contract like the one Miley got makes sense. However, with the free agent market being relatively thin for relievers I wonder if some teams might pursue him as a reliever and drive up the price.
Gio- I'd be interested in brining him back. I don't think he gets much more than $3mm or so guaranteed.
Nelson- I'd lean toward tendering him a contract and seeing what he's like in spring before his contract becomes fully guaranteed. Stearns seemed to dance around the Nelson questions in the season wrap up presser.
Pomeranz- if they are able to bring him back it's 99.9% chance as a reliever. F

Other internal options:
Peralta- I think they should stretch him out as a starter in spring. May end up in the pen and/or shuttle squad
Burnes- Same deal as peralta.
Suter- I think they should stretch him out, but it would be hard to move him out of the pen role based on that performance in september.
Faria- bring him to spring and see if he can earn a spot on the roster in some capacity.

Free agent starter I'm most interested in is Wheeler, but I'd guess he's going to be way more expensive than the Brewers will be in the market for.
I like Colin McHugh as a swing man type if he's healthy.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Brewers rotation
#42

Posted: October 07, 2019, 7:51 AM Post
Posts: 2114
long ball said:
....
Free agent starter I'm most interested in is Wheeler, but I'd guess he's going to be way more expensive than the Brewers will be in the market for.


If Grandal goes somewhere else and we go the Pina route, then you have $18M to spend on pitching. I assume it would be a tier below Wheeler and more in the $12M/year market and use the extra as needed - but if they really like Wheeler, they could make it happen.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Brewers rotation
#43

Posted: October 07, 2019, 7:55 AM Post
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True, but that 18 million is one year, Wheeler is going take a bigger commitment than one season.

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: 2020 Brewers rotation
#44

Posted: October 07, 2019, 8:19 AM Post
Posts: 2114
turborickey said:
True, but that 18 million is one year, Wheeler is going take a bigger commitment than one season.


I realize that. The first year is the hardest year to budget usually - as you have more commitments and less planning time. In our instance we can fit him in 2020 (with no Grandal), and he carries forward as a commitment to budget around. Hopefully the Braun savings in 2021 can for other team needs.

I don't especially want Wheeler unless the price is right, but we can afford him unless someone with deep pockets really likes him (Cole, Stratsburg, Ryu).


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Offline  Re: 2020 Brewers rotation
#45

Posted: October 07, 2019, 9:09 AM Post
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Location: Chicago
I obviously do very well at Wrigley,” Hamels told Mooney, speaking of his free agency options. “Hopefully, that’s what they think about. Otherwise, I know the other teams in the division are going to think about it. If you have to come to Wrigley three different times, I don’t pitch bad there…I know I do very well in the NL Central.”

While this ultimately may amount to little more than a bit of lighthearted dialogue between a veteran pitcher and a beat reporter with whom he has developed rapport, it seems noteworthy that Hamels may already be imagining himself in the uniform of another NL Central club. Certainly, it would be painful for Cubs fans to see Hamels defect after establishing himself as something of a club rival killer during his time on the North Side.

As Mooney points out, Hamels has posted sterling career numbers against NL Central teams in his career, dating back to his time in Philadelphia:

• Hamels vs. Cincinnati: 11-2, 2.30 ERA (20 starts)

• Hamels vs. Milwaukee: 8-5, 3.53 ERA (20 starts)

• Hamels vs. Pittsburgh: 5-4, 2.52 ERA (13 starts)

• Hamels vs. St. Louis: 5-6, 2.21 ERA (17 starts)


Makes a lot of sense for the Brewers, at 36 years old Hamels is not going to command the long term high dollar contract the Brewers never give out. As evidenced with Grandal the Brewers are willing to offer a high salary on a short term contract.

An established veteran like Hamels would also slot into a young rotation: Woodruff, Hamels, Davies, Houser, then one of Anderson/Nelson/Suter/Peralta/Burnes/Faria.

Plus from the stats above he is a killer in the division with his worst numbers in the division are against the brewers


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Offline  Re: 2020 Brewers rotation
#46

Posted: October 07, 2019, 9:37 AM Post
Posts: 834
Hamels is definitely an interesting target. I definitely though Hamels was washed and I was not all that concerned when the Cubs acquired him last year. He's been very good for them though.

Hamels went 6 or more IP in 12 of his 27 starts. No guarantee the brewers would use him the same way as the cubs did, but he at least has the potential to be effective AND work slightly deeper into games at a slightly higher rate than the Brewers typically use their starters.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Brewers rotation
#47

Posted: October 07, 2019, 12:57 PM Post
Posts: 5062
Hamels might make sense as a bridge to Ashby or Small.

But we'd have to see Ashby make a huge jump - and the same with Small.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Brewers rotation
#48

Posted: October 07, 2019, 3:15 PM Post
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Super funny we would consider Hamels given the trash talking he has done the last year+ ... BUT if there is a team that is better suited for a veteran looking for a short term deal to maximize dollars.. I'd like to know who that is. Hamels does, fortunately or unfortunately, make a lot of sense.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Brewers rotation
#49

Posted: October 07, 2019, 3:16 PM Post
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liveforoctober said:
Super funny we would consider Hamels given the trash talking he has done the last year+ ... BUT if there is a team that is better suited for a veteran looking for a short term deal to maximize dollars.. I'd like to know who that is. Hamels does, fortunately or unfortunately, make a lot of sense.


I know it doesn't matter as much as it used to, but it would be nice to have a lefty to break up the righties in the rotation as well.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Brewers rotation
#50

Posted: October 07, 2019, 9:26 PM Post
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Davies
Woodruff
Houser
Lyles (2-years, $8-10M)
Gio (1-year, $3-4M)

Why?

Anderson will make $8.5 million. You can probably get a better player for $8M.

Nelson made $3.7M in 2019. Figure he makes a similar number next year in his final year of arby. That's just too much for someone who has not looked good. The team will just cut ties, unless they can ink him to a lesser deal. The team could offer Nelson arbitration, see how he does in camp, and cut him if he looks bad. They would only need to pay him 1/6 of his salary - which would probably be 600-650k. This is, obviously, risky, but if Nelson comes out looking solid, you're good. If not, the money lose isn't overwhelming.

Relievers: Hader, Knebel, Suter, Claudio, Guerra, Pomeranz (if he can be resigned), plus a couple of guys from the list of Jay Jackson, Taylor Williams, Faria, and maybe Jeffress on a minor league or cheap deal. And maybe one of the minor league guys will step up.

Peralta and Burnes would need to be assessed and slotted in appropriately. Freddy might be best as a reliever, but I can't really say. Burnes is hard. I thought he was going to be a good player this year. I'd say let him be a starter - head to the minors and get stuff together. We'll need him eventually. He could be your 6th starter (assuming he looks okay). Otherwise, you fall back on someone like Faria for the rotation - which his really risky.

In the end, I don't see big free agent signings. No way we pay $35M for Cole or $30M for Strasburg (or whatever they will make). And paying $15M+ for a mid-level starter seems to be a bad idea. I think the club will inquire on a bunch of guys - MadBum, Odorizzi, Wheeler, etc., etc. - but someone will overpay for them - in years and dollars.

If a bargain falls into the club's lap, sure, they will pounce. But they won't overextend themselves on starters. They'll settle for guys like Gio and Lyles. I also could see them adding a bounce back arm, like Alex Wood. He's the kind of guy that could start, or end up in the bullpen.

All just my way to early guesses.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Brewers rotation
#51

Posted: December 13, 2019, 6:46 PM Post
Posts: 1170
Location: Washburn, WI
As it sits today:

Woodruff
Anderson
Houser
Lauer
Lindblom

I think we will still be looking to bring in another arm to slot into the bullpen that has prior starting experience at the least. I do think we could be looking at our rotation heading into the season right here though. I would say Woodruff, Anderson, and Lauer are locks for the rotation.

Houser showed well as a reliever early in the year and showed some positive signs in short starts late in the year. I do think if anyone is removed from the rotation because of another rotation arm added to the roster, it’ll be Houser. Lindblom I think was brought in to be a starter and will be given a shot in the rotation before being moved to the bullpen if he is ineffective.

As it sits, those are the 5 as of now that are in the rotation with Houser being the first to be removed if another arm is added. He was great out of the pen last season and may be better suited there long term. But I think he will be given a chance early in the year to keep his spot, similar to Burnes and Peralta in 2019.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Brewers rotation
#52

Posted: December 13, 2019, 6:57 PM Post
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This is an extremely crude number, but just because I was curious I looked up the fWAR/32GS rate for our current SP options over the last three seasons (2017-2019). I would have used rWAR because it is more favorable to us but couldn't figure out how to split out RP/SP WAR [smile]

Woodruff - 3.6 fWAR
Lindblom - n/a
B. Anderson - 1.9 fWAR
Lauer - 1.8 fWAR
Houser - 2.0 fWAR

Peralta - 2.0 fWAR
Suter - 2.4 fWAR
Faria - 1.5 fWAR

If we assume that Lindblom will also be in the 2.0 fWAR range (if he pitched an entire season for this hypothetical), then purely based on past performance that would give our starting rotation a total fWAR slightly above 11.3 fWAR (32 GS x 5 + 2 GS unaccounted for).

11.4 fWAR for the starting rotation would have placed the Brewers at 12th in MLB last season, right ahead of the Braves. Meanwhile I think all of our current pitching options have a certain amount of upside, and our overall pitching staff is bolstered by having a bullpen that could be top-5 in MLB given the return of Knebel.

And that's not to mention that I remain a True Believer that the ace of the rotation by the end of 2020 is going to be Corbin Burnes. [smile]


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Offline  Re: 2020 Brewers rotation
#53

Posted: December 13, 2019, 7:04 PM Post
Posts: 765
SRB said:
This is an extremely crude number, but just because I was curious I looked up the fWAR/32GS rate for our current SP options over the last three seasons (2017-2019). I would have used rWAR because it is more favorable to us but couldn't figure out how to split out RP/SP WAR [smile]

Woodruff - 3.6 fWAR
Lindblom - n/a
B. Anderson - 1.9 fWAR
Lauer - 1.8 fWAR
Houser - 2.0 fWAR

Peralta - 2.0 fWAR
Suter - 2.4 fWAR
Faria - 1.5 fWAR

If we assume that Lindblom will also be in the 2.0 fWAR range (if he pitched an entire season for this hypothetical), then purely based on past performance that would give our starting rotation a total fWAR slightly above 11.3 fWAR (32 GS x 5 + 2 GS unaccounted for).

11.4 fWAR for the starting rotation would have placed the Brewers at 12th in MLB last season, right ahead of the Braves. Meanwhile I think all of our current pitching options have a certain amount of upside, and our overall pitching staff is bolstered by having a bullpen that could be top-5 in MLB given the return of Knebel.

And that's not to mention that I remain a True Believer that the ace of the rotation by the end of 2020 is going to be Corbin Burnes. [smile]


Appreciate you diving into some of these numbers!

I’m with you on the Burnes bandwagon. Some of my friends think I’m nuts (maybe I am) but I still see All Star production coming from him.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Brewers rotation
#54

Posted: December 13, 2019, 7:05 PM Post
Posts: 752
SRB said:
This is an extremely crude number, but just because I was curious I looked up the fWAR/32GS rate for our current SP options over the last three seasons (2017-2019). I would have used rWAR because it is more favorable to us but couldn't figure out how to split out RP/SP WAR [smile]

Woodruff - 3.6 fWAR
Lindblom - n/a
B. Anderson - 1.9 fWAR
Lauer - 1.8 fWAR
Houser - 2.0 fWAR

Peralta - 2.0 fWAR
Suter - 2.4 fWAR
Faria - 1.5 fWAR

If we assume that Lindblom will also be in the 2.0 fWAR range (if he pitched an entire season for this hypothetical), then purely based on past performance that would give our starting rotation a total fWAR slightly above 11.3 fWAR (32 GS x 5 + 2 GS unaccounted for).

11.4 fWAR for the starting rotation would have placed the Brewers at 12th in MLB last season, right ahead of the Braves. Meanwhile I think all of our current pitching options have a certain amount of upside, and our overall pitching staff is bolstered by having a bullpen that could be top-5 in MLB given the return of Knebel.

And that's not to mention that I remain a True Believer that the ace of the rotation by the end of 2020 is going to be Corbin Burnes. [smile]


There is something severely wrong with fWAR if a staff of Lindblom-Houser-Lauer-Anderson-Woodruff would be anywhere near average for MLB, much less in the top 12. You have to know if Faria (6.75 FIP - 5 HRs in 18 IPs - 2.13 WHIP) is anything but a negative, fWAR is badly flawed.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Brewers rotation
#55

Posted: December 13, 2019, 7:08 PM Post
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I love it. We should be stacking lefties in our rotation and the moves of late show the Brewers are thinking that way also. Lauer via trade, Anderson as a free agent, Small and Kelly in the draft.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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Offline  Re: 2020 Brewers rotation
#56

Posted: December 13, 2019, 7:16 PM Post
Posts: 1170
Location: Washburn, WI
SRB said:
This is an extremely crude number, but just because I was curious I looked up the fWAR/32GS rate for our current SP options over the last three seasons (2017-2019). I would have used rWAR because it is more favorable to us but couldn't figure out how to split out RP/SP WAR [smile]

Woodruff - 3.6 fWAR
Lindblom - n/a
B. Anderson - 1.9 fWAR
Lauer - 1.8 fWAR
Houser - 2.0 fWAR

Peralta - 2.0 fWAR
Suter - 2.4 fWAR
Faria - 1.5 fWAR

If we assume that Lindblom will also be in the 2.0 fWAR range (if he pitched an entire season for this hypothetical), then purely based on past performance that would give our starting rotation a total fWAR slightly above 11.3 fWAR (32 GS x 5 + 2 GS unaccounted for).

11.4 fWAR for the starting rotation would have placed the Brewers at 12th in MLB last season, right ahead of the Braves. Meanwhile I think all of our current pitching options have a certain amount of upside, and our overall pitching staff is bolstered by having a bullpen that could be top-5 in MLB given the return of Knebel.

And that's not to mention that I remain a True Believer that the ace of the rotation by the end of 2020 is going to be Corbin Burnes. [smile]


Thanks for this! I do think our rotation would be fine with what we have, but hope we add a difference making arm (possibly through a trade) to put at the top of the rotation next to Woodruff. I do also hope that we move Houser to the pen. I really liked how he pitched coming out of the pen and think that he could have that Pomeranz like role where he pitches a couple innings at a time late in the game on games Hader can’t go.

If he remains in the rotation, it’s not a big deal as having a backend rotation arm for cheap is very valuable. I just don’t personally think we will see the best out of him in that role. Here’s hoping to Burnes lighting the world on fire in Spring Training, earning that rotation spot, and kicking Houser into the bullpen! [smile]


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Offline  Re: 2020 Brewers rotation
#57

Posted: December 13, 2019, 7:19 PM Post
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Posts: 3627
wntrtxn21 said:
There is something severely wrong with fWAR if a staff of Lindblom-Houser-Lauer-Anderson-Woodruff would be anywhere near average for MLB, much less in the top 12. You have to know if Faria (6.75 FIP - 5 HRs in 18 IPs - 2.13 WHIP) is anything but a negative, fWAR is badly flawed.


Can you just admit that you know absolutely nothing about Lindblom, who has not even pitched in the States in several years?

Basically all of our options besides Woodruff have at a minimum been right around league average pitchers if you actually look at their numbers and have any familiarity with MLB.

Also, as a starting pitcher from 2017-2019, Faria has 135.0 IP, 4.27 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 4.63 FIP pitching in the AL East.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Brewers rotation
#58

Posted: December 13, 2019, 8:10 PM Post
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Posts: 1386
ThisIsMyCrew said:
SRB said:
This is an extremely crude number, but just because I was curious I looked up the fWAR/32GS rate for our current SP options over the last three seasons (2017-2019). I would have used rWAR because it is more favorable to us but couldn't figure out how to split out RP/SP WAR [smile]

Woodruff - 3.6 fWAR
Lindblom - n/a
B. Anderson - 1.9 fWAR
Lauer - 1.8 fWAR
Houser - 2.0 fWAR

Peralta - 2.0 fWAR
Suter - 2.4 fWAR
Faria - 1.5 fWAR

If we assume that Lindblom will also be in the 2.0 fWAR range (if he pitched an entire season for this hypothetical), then purely based on past performance that would give our starting rotation a total fWAR slightly above 11.3 fWAR (32 GS x 5 + 2 GS unaccounted for).

11.4 fWAR for the starting rotation would have placed the Brewers at 12th in MLB last season, right ahead of the Braves. Meanwhile I think all of our current pitching options have a certain amount of upside, and our overall pitching staff is bolstered by having a bullpen that could be top-5 in MLB given the return of Knebel.

And that's not to mention that I remain a True Believer that the ace of the rotation by the end of 2020 is going to be Corbin Burnes. [smile]


Appreciate you diving into some of these numbers!

I’m with you on the Burnes bandwagon. Some of my friends think I’m nuts (maybe I am) but I still see All Star production coming from him.


Agreed on Burnes. I would definitely putting Houser in the bullpen to strengthen it given his past success there and putting Burnes in the rotation for another try. We need good right handed relievers-especially not knowing where Knebel is with recovery. I'm sure Burnes, being the intense type has worked his butt off this offseason and is itching to show he isn't the meltdown we saw last year. Now more than ever we see we can't give up on guys like him...

"Did I ever tell you how I became a Postman Abby? I don't know if you'd laugh or cry"-The Postman


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Offline  Re: 2020 Brewers rotation
#59

Posted: December 14, 2019, 9:06 AM Post
Posts: 101
If the fans like it or not, Corbin Burnes is still the best chance of adding a TOR starter in 2020. We don’t have the payroll to sign one via free agency and lack the prospects necessary to trade for one mid season. He showed in 2018 that his stuff can be downright filthy and miss plenty of bats as long as he can get his head straight. Woodruff and Burnes would make a formidable two headed monster to go along with the remainder of our option. I would be happy signing one more starter for insurance. I like both Rich Hill and Aaron Sanchez (if our medical staff complies) since both would start the season on the IR which gives Burnes time to prove himself.

Best case, Burnes is dominant and Hill/Sanchez bumps Lauer/Houser to the pen or back to the minors. Worst case, Burnes struggles and we need to use a in house stopgap until Hill/Sanchez is ready.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Brewers rotation
#60

Posted: December 14, 2019, 2:27 PM Post
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I an hoping that either Burnes or Peralta can really step up and take a spot in the rotation as both have the potential to be top starters this team needs.


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