LambeauLeap1250 WSSP


  
Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7  Next  [ 130 posts ]  New Topic   Add Reply

Live and die with Josh Hader:

Author Message
Online  Re: Live and die with Josh Hader:
#61

Posted: October 02, 2019, 7:10 PM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 7955
I'm 100% sure that Josh, Chris Hook, and Counsell are acutely aware that his longevity is tied to him developing either his slider or another pitch and being able to reliably throw it for strikes. That being said, knowing it and doing it are two different things. If it were that easy, history would be absolutely littered with dominating relievers rather than flameouts like Turnbow.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Live and die with Josh Hader:
#62

Posted: October 02, 2019, 7:25 PM Post
Posts: 916
Two things.

1) Fans that say that CC doesn't know how to handle a pitching staff apparently have the baseball memory of a fruit fly. Forgetting RR starting Marcum in game 6 of the NLCS when he had nothing for a month and a half, forgetting Sveum starting Suppan against the Phillies in game 4 of the NLDS despite having a career 5+ era against them and not being very good that year, and forgetting Yost intentionally walking either Ryan Howard or Chase Utley so Brian Shouse could turn Shane Victorino into Lou Gehrig. CC has never made a move that comes even close to those bonehead moves.

2) The idea that CC should have removed Hader is akin to suggesting that late in the game we should PH Yelich if he's 0-3 with a couple of ks and there is a LH relief pitcher on the mound. You don't take out your star player just because he's struggling a little bit.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Live and die with Josh Hader:
#63

Posted: October 02, 2019, 7:34 PM Post
Posts: 3905
AdvantageSchneider said:
Two things.

1) Fans that say that CC doesn't know how to handle a pitching staff apparently have the baseball memory of a fruit fly. Forgetting RR starting Marcum in game 6 of the NLCS when he had nothing for a month and a half, forgetting Sveum starting Suppan against the Phillies in game 4 of the NLDS despite having a career 5+ era against them and not being very good that year, and forgetting Yost intentionally walking either Ryan Howard or Chase Utley so Brian Shouse could turn Shane Victorino into Lou Gehrig. CC has never made a move that comes even close to those bonehead moves.

2) The idea that CC should have removed Hader is akin to suggesting that late in the game we should PH Yelich if he's 0-3 with a couple of ks and there is a LH relief pitcher on the mound. You don't take out your star player just because he's struggling a little bit.

Truth

but it's not like every guy suddenly forgot every piece of advice he gave


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Live and die with Josh Hader:
#64

Posted: October 02, 2019, 7:39 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 2395
AdvantageSchneider said:
Two things.

2) The idea that CC should have removed Hader is akin to suggesting that late in the game we should PH Yelich if he's 0-3 with a couple of ks and there is a LH relief pitcher on the mound. You don't take out your star player just because he's struggling a little bit.


Of course he had to stick with him once he was in. That's why he shouldn't have come in in the first place, especially with a right handed heavy bottom of the order coming up. Either leave a dealing Pomeranz in or go to Peralta/Guerra for at the very least the first couple of batter in the 8th and then see what to do from there .

I'm not foaming at the mouth at CCs decision though. He's been right much more often than not this year--and it wasn't a completely boneheaded move. It's just one I wouldn't have made.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Live and die with Josh Hader:
#65

Posted: October 02, 2019, 7:48 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 5773
AdvantageSchneider said:
Two things.
2) The idea that CC should have removed Hader is akin to suggesting that late in the game we should PH Yelich if he's 0-3 with a couple of ks and there is a LH relief pitcher on the mound. You don't take out your star player just because he's struggling a little bit.


That's a stretch. A big one. Removing a clearly struggling pitcher has never been the same as pinch hitting for the MVP. You know that's a stretch.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Live and die with Josh Hader:
#66

Posted: October 02, 2019, 7:53 PM Post
Posts: 20580
OldSchoolSnapper said:
AdvantageSchneider said:
Two things.
2) The idea that CC should have removed Hader is akin to suggesting that late in the game we should PH Yelich if he's 0-3 with a couple of ks and there is a LH relief pitcher on the mound. You don't take out your star player just because he's struggling a little bit.


That's a stretch. A big one. Removing a clearly struggling pitcher has never been the same as pinch hitting for the MVP. You know that's a stretch.


Yeah, that's not even close to the same thing. But that was kind of the problem with Hader this year and his role. He was always the last line of defense. If he struggled, that was that and we were going to lose. Last year we could turn to Knebel, turn to Jeffress if it wasn't Hader's night. This year if Josh Hader was going to come into a game it was going to be his game to win or lose.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Live and die with Josh Hader:
#67

Posted: October 02, 2019, 7:54 PM Post
Posts: 2201
Oxy said:
AdvantageSchneider said:
Two things.

2) The idea that CC should have removed Hader is akin to suggesting that late in the game we should PH Yelich if he's 0-3 with a couple of ks and there is a LH relief pitcher on the mound. You don't take out your star player just because he's struggling a little bit.


Of course he had to stick with him once he was in. That's why he shouldn't have come in in the first place, especially with a right handed heavy bottom of the order coming up. Either leave a dealing Pomeranz in or go to Peralta/Guerra for at the very least the first couple of batter in the 8th and then see what to do from there .

I'm not foaming at the mouth at CCs decision though. He's been right much more often than not this year--and it wasn't a completely boneheaded move. It's just one I wouldn't have made.


My take is that Hader was facing his last hitter REGARDLESS of what happened... if he walked the young National, it's 3-2 and warmed up Lyles is coming in. If Grisham makes no error, it's 3-3 and Lyle's is in. If he retires him, he still has roughly 30 struggling pitches heading to the 9th and I still think CC takes him out. Lyle's and Houser maybe for the 9th?


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Live and die with Josh Hader:
#68

Posted: October 02, 2019, 8:46 PM Post
Posts: 916
adambr2 said:
OldSchoolSnapper said:
AdvantageSchneider said:
Two things.
2) The idea that CC should have removed Hader is akin to suggesting that late in the game we should PH Yelich if he's 0-3 with a couple of ks and there is a LH relief pitcher on the mound. You don't take out your star player just because he's struggling a little bit.


That's a stretch. A big one. Removing a clearly struggling pitcher has never been the same as pinch hitting for the MVP. You know that's a stretch.


Yeah, that's not even close to the same thing. But that was kind of the problem with Hader this year and his role. He was always the last line of defense. If he struggled, that was that and we were going to lose. Last year we could turn to Knebel, turn to Jeffress if it wasn't Hader's night. This year if Josh Hader was going to come into a game it was going to be his game to win or lose.


It really is the same thing. I've never seen anyone PH for the MVP late in the game. Can you think of an elite closer that has been taken out of a save situation when it looked like he didn't have it? I've been racking my brain but I can't think of that ever happening. You either believe in your star players or you don't. It's the old cliche, it's not about the Xs and Os it about Jimmy's and Joes.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Live and die with Josh Hader:
#69

Posted: October 02, 2019, 8:52 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 5773
Hader is an elite RP, he's not an elite closer but that analogy still doesn't work for many reasons. One being that Yelich gets one AB.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Live and die with Josh Hader:
#70

Posted: October 02, 2019, 9:05 PM Post
Posts: 20580
AdvantageSchneider said:
It really is the same thing. I've never seen anyone PH for the MVP late in the game. Can you think of an elite closer that has been taken out of a save situation when it looked like he didn't have it? I've been racking my brain but I can't think of that ever happening. You either believe in your star players or you don't. It's the old cliche, it's not about the Xs and Os it about Jimmy's and Joes.


Yes actually, the 2018 Brewers did it numerous times to all 3 of their "closers". You're still comparing apples to oranges here. Hader isn't an elite closer. He was a very good reliever in 2019 and an elite reliever in 2018, but he's never been an elite closer in the traditional sense. If you're comparing him to historical guys like Kimbrel, Rivera, etc, that just doesn't hold up. Even as a closer, Hader has never been a traditional one. He's consistently asked to protect for 2 innings, even more, depending on the situation.

It doesn't have anything to do with believing in your star players or not, it has to do with your options. Hader, Jeffress, and Knebel were used late in games almost interchangeably last season in various orders depending on the game situation. Does that mean we didn't believe in them? Of course not. Was Hader just better and more trustworthy this year? No, definitely not. We simply had various high end options at our disposal to finish the job if we ran into trouble.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Live and die with Josh Hader:
#71

Posted: October 02, 2019, 9:29 PM Post
Posts: 8844
adambr2 said:
AdvantageSchneider said:
It really is the same thing. I've never seen anyone PH for the MVP late in the game. Can you think of an elite closer that has been taken out of a save situation when it looked like he didn't have it? I've been racking my brain but I can't think of that ever happening. You either believe in your star players or you don't. It's the old cliche, it's not about the Xs and Os it about Jimmy's and Joes.


Yes actually, the 2018 Brewers did it numerous times to all 3 of their "closers". You're still comparing apples to oranges here. Hader isn't an elite closer. He was a very good reliever in 2019 and an elite reliever in 2018, but he's never been an elite closer in the traditional sense. If you're comparing him to historical guys like Kimbrel, Rivera, etc, that just doesn't hold up. Even as a closer, Hader has never been a traditional one. He's consistently asked to protect for 2 innings, even more, depending on the situation.

It doesn't have anything to do with believing in your star players or not, it has to do with your options. Hader, Jeffress, and Knebel were used late in games almost interchangeably last season in various orders depending on the game situation. Does that mean we didn't believe in them? Of course not. Was Hader just better and more trustworthy this year? No, definitely not. We simply had various high end options at our disposal to finish the job if we ran into trouble.


Correct. Hader was not above being yanked. He was simply the best option. The struggling part is overblown a bit too. Robles was dancing around like a fool on pitches just off the inside corner. He k'd 2 batters with a bogus hbp in between. Then destroyed Zimmerman's bat. Yea, he was a little wild but amost always is, and almost always gets the job done. Even this year.

As far as his future, sure only one pitch is an issue. But not the issue it was in the past now that you get the high strike. Swing and miss rate on his high fb is crazy, and gets a lot of swings out of the zone. All that said, I do prefer him in his 2018 role.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Live and die with Josh Hader:
#72

Posted: October 02, 2019, 9:41 PM Post
Posts: 20580
I was surprised looking at Hader's numbers, he was almost identical to his 2018 other than his HR/9 jumped from 1 to 1.8. He struck out slightly more and walked less. There wasn't a big difference at all between 2018 and 2019 Hader.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Online  Re: Live and die with Josh Hader:
#73

Posted: October 02, 2019, 10:38 PM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 2900
Even with less than optimal command & no consistent second pitch, since 2017, Hader has posted 5.9 FIP based WAR (2nd most), 7.2 runs allowed based WAR (thee most) & +7.26 Win Probability Added (also 2nd).

The only reliever that has been comparable over the last three seasons is Felipe Vasquez & I believe he'll be pitching in the Venezuelan Penal League next year.

If I have to live or die with a reliever, Josh Hader is my pick.

As for relievers that had multiple productive seasons over numerous years while pretty much only throwing a fastball, Aroldis Chapman & Zach Britton are the two that come to mind first.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Online  Re: Live and die with Josh Hader:
#74

Posted: October 02, 2019, 10:52 PM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 2900
MrTPlush said:
He was simply 'unlucky' compared to last year


StatCast agrees with you.

2018

expected AVG .158 vs actual AVG .132
expected SLG .280 vs actual SLG .265

2019

expected AVG .152 vs actual AVG .155
expected SLG .306 vs actual SLG .366


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Live and die with Josh Hader:
#75

Posted: October 02, 2019, 11:31 PM Post
Posts: 1172
Location: Washburn, WI
My issue is that Hader clearly didn’t have it and was left in which led to us blowing the game. It was obvious from the first few pitches that he didn’t have it. I know he’s “the guy”, but that really shouldn’t matter. What matters is if a guy clearly doesn’t have it, regardless of who he is, he needs to be pulled. Maybe not in the regular season, but in a one game playoff it needs to happen. No excuses for how long he was left in and had no idea where his pitches were going. Just guessing here, but 30 pitches, 14 strikes. How many pitches were outside the zone and guys still swung? Hader probably threw something like 9 or 10 strikes. For a guy that tends to pound the zone, he was clearly off.

I think Hader is fantastic and I really did not have an issue with him coming in for 2 innings. I thought it was the right move at the time and agree with the decision. But when a guy doesn’t have it, man, you gotta get him out of there. If somebody is off, you need to have a quick hook in the playoffs. Especially a winner take all game. Lyles should of been getting warm after the second batter of the inning in my opinion. It was very obvious how wild Hader was.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Live and die with Josh Hader:
#76

Posted: October 03, 2019, 6:25 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 5773
In defense of that, there have been lots of times when Hader hasn't had it and still gets out of the inning unscathed.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Online  Re: Live and die with Josh Hader:
#77

Posted: October 03, 2019, 6:49 AM Post
Posts: 13182
Everyone talks about having Lyles ready sooner, but when were you going to put him in? To face Rendon....yah I mean, I guess you could. I think the Brewers/Hader did the right thing and pitched around Rendon. I don't think it was entirely intentionally, but I think they were hoping he would chase the fastball. Lyles likely would have done the same and had the same result. So then you move onto Soto...it makes no sense to put in Lyles to face Soto. It just doesn't. Hader at his worst is a better option than Lyles against Soto.


If Grisham doesn't blow it in the OF I think that is when we would have seen Lyles.

The only earlier chance to go to Lyles was against Zimmerman, but in the moment I don't see any manager making that move.

For all the talk about him being so terrible he struck out 2/3 of the first batters, the other arguably got bailed out for the HBP, and then the fourth batter had a flying saucer broken bat single. Even Soto didn't hit it hard. I think that speaks volumes about how good Hader is. Even at his god-awful worst no one was hitting him all that hard.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Live and die with Josh Hader:
#78

Posted: October 03, 2019, 7:10 AM Post
Posts: 5197
Location: Madison, WI
For the Yeli comp. The more accurate way to put in regards to what Snapper is saying is that if Yelich hit .390 for September on our crazy run to end the year but went 0/5 with a critical strikeout to end the game in the top of the 9th vs Col in the 2nd to last game then he no longer should be consider good or best hitter and thus demoted to like 7th in the order.

This whole talk comes down to one falsehood trying to act like Hader has been struggling lately on account of one lucky hit in Col. It's simply not true, the guy was absolutely incredible to finish the year. For the 2nd pitch, I complained all year about why they wouldn't let him throw it (complaint about a lot of guys on the team) but since mid Aug he has been throwing it and it's been key to him dominating. I think the 'no 2nd pitch' is being overblown too. He obviously didn't have it that day though, not denying that as guys have bad days, but in general he does have it and they just have to let him throw it.

Ther'es a talk that you could've had a quicker trigger once his command was off, that's fair. I could see putting in one more guy like Guerra after Suter so that you could PH and move everyone back an inning. That's fair. But to act like Hader was some impending disaster is just 100% false and just Brewers negativity and pessimism.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Live and die with Josh Hader:
#79

Posted: October 03, 2019, 7:16 AM Post
Posts: 3905
tmwiese55 said:
For the Yeli comp. The more accurate way to put in regards to what Snapper is saying is that if Yelich hit .390 for September on our crazy run to end the year but went 0/5 with a critical strikeout to end the game in the top of the 9th vs Col in the 2nd to last game then he no longer should be consider good or best hitter and thus demoted to like 7th in the order.

This whole talk comes down to one falsehood trying to act like Hader has been struggling lately on account of one lucky hit in Col. It's simply not true, the guy was absolutely incredible to finish the year. For the 2nd pitch, I complained all year about why they wouldn't let him throw it (complaint about a lot of guys on the team) but since mid Aug he has been throwing it and it's been key to him dominating. I think the 'no 2nd pitch' is being overblown too. He obviously didn't have it that day though, not denying that as guys have bad days, but in general he does have it and they just have to let him throw it.

Ther'es a talk that you could've had a quicker trigger once his command was off, that's fair. I could see putting in one more guy like Guerra after Suter so that you could PH and move everyone back an inning. That's fair. But to act like Hader was some impending disaster is just 100% false and just Brewers negativity and pessimism.

Great post. Even after thinking through this for a day or so I'm not at all convinced that leaving Hader in was the wrong move. I understand why those that think he should have been removed believe what they believe. I'm just not convinced Hader wasn't the right call even with the struggles.

but it's not like every guy suddenly forgot every piece of advice he gave


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Live and die with Josh Hader:
#80

Posted: October 03, 2019, 7:16 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 14183
Location: Milwaukee, WI
I thought the whining was bad when Hader blew it but I can't even imagine who would come out of the woodwork if he had stuck Lyles in there and he gave up the lead.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7  Next  [ 130 posts ]  New Topic   Add Reply
  


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: DocLuna7, gypcasino, Vgmastr and 15 guests

You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search this forum (phpBB search):
Jump to:  
Search entire board (Google search):
Google
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group
Test