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Live and die with Josh Hader:

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Offline  Re: Live and die with Josh Hader:
#81

Posted: October 03, 2019, 7:18 AM Post
Posts: 3780
OldSchoolSnapper said:
In defense of that, there have been lots of times when Hader hasn't had it and still gets out of the inning unscathed.

Which is a testament to how good his stuff really is most of the time. I do agree that Hader is best deployed in a more flexible role than as a "closer". I think that is right.

but it's not like every guy suddenly forgot every piece of advice he gave


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Online  Re: Live and die with Josh Hader:
#82

Posted: October 03, 2019, 7:23 AM Post
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82brewcrew82 said:
tmwiese55 said:
For the Yeli comp. The more accurate way to put in regards to what Snapper is saying is that if Yelich hit .390 for September on our crazy run to end the year but went 0/5 with a critical strikeout to end the game in the top of the 9th vs Col in the 2nd to last game then he no longer should be consider good or best hitter and thus demoted to like 7th in the order.

This whole talk comes down to one falsehood trying to act like Hader has been struggling lately on account of one lucky hit in Col. It's simply not true, the guy was absolutely incredible to finish the year. For the 2nd pitch, I complained all year about why they wouldn't let him throw it (complaint about a lot of guys on the team) but since mid Aug he has been throwing it and it's been key to him dominating. I think the 'no 2nd pitch' is being overblown too. He obviously didn't have it that day though, not denying that as guys have bad days, but in general he does have it and they just have to let him throw it.

Ther'es a talk that you could've had a quicker trigger once his command was off, that's fair. I could see putting in one more guy like Guerra after Suter so that you could PH and move everyone back an inning. That's fair. But to act like Hader was some impending disaster is just 100% false and just Brewers negativity and pessimism.

Great post. Even after thinking through this for a day or so I'm not at all convinced that leaving Hader in was the wrong move. I understand why those that think he should have been removed believe what they believe. I'm just not convinced Hader wasn't the right call even with the struggles.


I'm not either and that has never been my position. I've never thought using him how he was used was egregious, just simply that it was not what I would have done. Maybe I just had random dumb luck that night, but we all get a lucky guess now and then. I didn't like his propensity for home runs, as I told my friend, I didn't want him closing it out unless it got to 5-1.


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Offline  Re: Live and die with Josh Hader:
#83

Posted: October 03, 2019, 7:29 AM Post
Posts: 902
Two months ago in Washinton Hader blew a save, walked the bases load and had nobody out and looked as bad or worse than he did Tuesday night. And then he proceeded to strike out the next three hitters and send the game to extra innings. So there is precedence from just over two months ago that Hader can look really bad and then dial it in. That game was the end of his struggles and the start of his great run of closing.


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Offline  Re: Live and die with Josh Hader:
#84

Posted: October 03, 2019, 7:29 AM Post
Posts: 3780
Brew4U said:
I thought the whining was bad when Hader blew it but I can't even imagine who would come out of the woodwork if he had stuck Lyles in there and he gave up the lead.

I don't get it either. Lyles was the opposite of Hader where in his peripheral numbers were identical to what he was producing for Pittsburgh but that is the guy we want to win or lose with. In other words, he was getting lucky. I would have stuck with Hader until after Rendon and maybe longer.

but it's not like every guy suddenly forgot every piece of advice he gave


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Online  Re: Live and die with Josh Hader:
#85

Posted: October 03, 2019, 7:41 AM Post
Posts: 4711
Location: Madison, WI
After Rendon it's lefty lefty on Soto though. That's what you want. Also, with guys on base the best way out is to K people and he has one of the highest K rates ever. In all this we have to remember the only solid hit he gave up was the last one. A questionable HBP and a broken bat pure luck hit were the killer, bad breaks that both went against him. Of course it was clear his control was off and he was behind on everyone, but even in spite of that he needed two things like that to go against him. He's great overall, he just had a crap game, it happens. With how great he was last year it's tough to say 'nerves' or any psycho babble bs talking heads try to say on espn, he just didn't have it that day. Can happen to anyone. And for our other options in Pom/Guerra, they got hit in that Col game too.

ETA: I would agree with those who've said they prefer if Hader could go back to his 2018 fireman type role. If Knebel can come back and be end of game insurance to free up Hader for his 2018 role that would be ideal. As one who dislikes the traditional predetermined closer role I think you'd get the most value out of him in his previous role. Especially since I see the short starters thing continuing for us. Him and Pomeranz, in those 2-3 inning fireman roles with a Knebel type one inning closer at the end.


Last edited by tmwiese55 on October 03, 2019, 8:56 AM, edited 2 times in total.

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Online  Re: Live and die with Josh Hader:
#86

Posted: October 03, 2019, 8:43 AM Post
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Soto is a great player, but Hader against Soto is a matchup that Hader wins probably 85-90 times out of 100. The Brewers 100% made the right call. It just didn't work out.


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Offline  Re: Live and die with Josh Hader:
#87

Posted: October 03, 2019, 9:07 AM Post
Posts: 563
Yep...as much as you don't want to load the bases in that situation, I was completely fine with them pitching around Rendon there and pitching to 20 year old Soto - lefty on lefty. I figured that Soto would be too amped up for that situation and that Hader had a good chance at getting the strikeout to end the inning. Unfortunately, I guess we just have to tip our cap to Soto - because he came up huge in that situation. That's baseball. Sucks for us, but I'm sure CC would handle that situation the exact same way if he had to do it all over again.


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Offline  Re: Live and die with Josh Hader:
#88

Posted: October 03, 2019, 9:46 AM Post
Posts: 1586
The mental gymnastics by some to say Hader should have been taken out for Lyles (or another righty) against a lefty is amusing. Carry on bfan!


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Offline  Re: Live and die with Josh Hader:
#89

Posted: October 03, 2019, 10:00 AM Post
Posts: 1739
Location: Madison, WI
Hader was extremely frustrating to watch this year. He has success with his fastball and I would assume that the strikeout analytics suggest just keep throwing high fastballs as that inflates the K-rate and that is all baseball is about these days. To use an old, tired cliché, there was no pitching going on there, all throwing.

So at the end of the season, every opposing MLB hitter knows that he only throws a slider 15% of the time and 64% of the time the slider will be a ball. Why show respect for anything other than the fastball? So he gives up 9 home runs in the last 35 innings he pitches and he and the Brewers just say it's simply bad location and there is nothing wrong. Well, maybe he lacks a proper margin "for location error" because hitters only have to worry about one thing. Maybe if they actually had to worry about a second pitch, then it might not be so easy for them to just sit on the one pitch and smash it when it's not in the right spot. The numbers pretty much show that, on average, Hader will throw one slider per at bat and, on average, that one slider will be a ball...so why not just ignore any slider that's thrown and just sit on the fastball?


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Offline  Re: Live and die with Josh Hader:
#90

Posted: October 03, 2019, 10:54 AM Post
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JosephC said:
Hader was extremely frustrating to watch this year. He has success with his fastball and I would assume that the strikeout analytics suggest just keep throwing high fastballs as that inflates the K-rate and that is all baseball is about these days. To use an old, tired cliché, there was no pitching going on there, all throwing.

So at the end of the season, every opposing MLB hitter knows that he only throws a slider 15% of the time and 64% of the time the slider will be a ball. Why show respect for anything other than the fastball? So he gives up 9 home runs in the last 35 innings he pitches and he and the Brewers just say it's simply bad location and there is nothing wrong. Well, maybe he lacks a proper margin "for location error" because hitters only have to worry about one thing. Maybe if they actually had to worry about a second pitch, then it might not be so easy for them to just sit on the one pitch and smash it when it's not in the right spot. The numbers pretty much show that, on average, Hader will throw one slider per at bat and, on average, that one slider will be a ball...so why not just ignore any slider that's thrown and just sit on the fastball?


Justin Verlander may very well win the Cy Young and led the league in HRs given up.

Hader has an elite fastball with movement. You don't think that the entire season the strategy was "Sit on his fastball and tee off on it."?

Hader has now given up hits at the lowest rate ever for any pitcher with over 100 innings pitched. This idea that guys are "sitting on the fastball" and teeing off on it is ludicrous.

"I wasted so much time in my life hating Juventus or A.C. Milan that I should have spent hating the Cardinals." ~kalle8

Twitter: @MKEHiker
Website: http://www.mkehiker.com


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Offline  Re: Live and die with Josh Hader:
#91

Posted: October 03, 2019, 11:11 AM Post
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JosephC said:
Hader was extremely frustrating to watch this year. He has success with his fastball and I would assume that the strikeout analytics suggest just keep throwing high fastballs as that inflates the K-rate and that is all baseball is about these days. To use an old, tired cliché, there was no pitching going on there, all throwing.

So at the end of the season, every opposing MLB hitter knows that he only throws a slider 15% of the time and 64% of the time the slider will be a ball. Why show respect for anything other than the fastball? So he gives up 9 home runs in the last 35 innings he pitches and he and the Brewers just say it's simply bad location and there is nothing wrong. Well, maybe he lacks a proper margin "for location error" because hitters only have to worry about one thing. Maybe if they actually had to worry about a second pitch, then it might not be so easy for them to just sit on the one pitch and smash it when it's not in the right spot. The numbers pretty much show that, on average, Hader will throw one slider per at bat and, on average, that one slider will be a ball...so why not just ignore any slider that's thrown and just sit on the fastball?


Justin Verlander may very well win the Cy Young and led the league in HRs given up.

Hader has an elite fastball with movement. You don't think that the entire season the strategy was "Sit on his fastball and tee off on it."?

Hader has now given up hits at the lowest rate ever for any pitcher with over 100 innings pitched.

Your theory about players teeing off doesn't jive with what has actually happened.

"I wasted so much time in my life hating Juventus or A.C. Milan that I should have spent hating the Cardinals." ~kalle8

Twitter: @MKEHiker
Website: http://www.mkehiker.com


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Offline  Re: Live and die with Josh Hader:
#92

Posted: October 03, 2019, 11:22 AM Post
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In 2019, lowest WHIP and BB/9 of his career. Highest K/9. His H/9 and HR/9 were up a bit. Maybe advanced stats show something concerning but I'll just chalk his 2019 homer problem up to variance of a small sample and juiced ball.

I think the biggest issue here is perception. If a starting pitcher has an increased homerun rate but everything else is the same or better it's not going to be as noticeable since the homers are coming in innings 1-5 or so. If a reliever's HR rate goes it's going to be very noticeable as he'll be losing games.


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Online  Re: Live and die with Josh Hader:
#93

Posted: October 03, 2019, 12:12 PM Post
Posts: 4711
Location: Madison, WI
The teeing off on his FB happened for like a 2 week stretch. He gave up 2 HRs in the last 1.5 months of the season. He started using the slider again and he went back to being dominant. Honestly this like a BC92 overreaction to two bad games. Don't get me wrong, I'm fully on board with him improving his slider and adding at least an occasional changeup, it can only help. But to act like he's not ridiculously good right now is just flat out wrong.


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Online  Re: Live and die with Josh Hader:
#94

Posted: October 03, 2019, 12:45 PM Post
Posts: 11882
Even if he has a slight HR problem, so what. Are we really upset he isn't perfect in every form of the game? Who is? Not very many.


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Offline  Re: Live and die with Josh Hader:
#95

Posted: October 03, 2019, 8:24 PM Post
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OldSchoolSnapper said:
Ennder said:
Jeffress' usage wasn't nearly as bad as people want to make it out last year in the playoffs either.



With ya until this. Everyone except Craig Counsell knew JJ was toast.


JJ had his best month of the year in September. He struggled in game 1 of the playoffs and people were already saying he was toast even though his velocity was fine. Game 2 he pitched 2 innings with 3 K and was just fine. Game 3 he came in with a 6 run lead and gave up a hit and a walk.

At this point there is no way Counsell had done anything wrong and the series was over. Even with the JJ is worn out narrative in play he was then given 4 full days rest between the series which you would think for a manager resets things. Game 1 vs the Dodgers he was shaky and pulled early. Game 2 he was ok and wasn't in the game until Woodruff and Hader had already been used. Again we are now over half the way through the playoffs and Counsell has not done anything wrong here.

Game 3 is the game people can complain about and question Counsell and I'm cool with that. But even in that case he was used early because they didn't trust him late in games anymore, they saved those more important innings for other RPs. He was never used in a high leverage situation after that. He did pitch in game 7 but the entire bullpen was gassed at that point and everyone had to be used. They didn't have the depth to just not use one of their guys since the SP were being pulled so early. I guess they could have asked him to fake an injury, but they weren't going to win that series without using him at all and they generally used him in lower leverage spots.


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Offline  Re: Live and die with Josh Hader:
#96

Posted: October 03, 2019, 9:08 PM Post
Posts: 4596
jerichoholicninja said:
In 2019, lowest WHIP and BB/9 of his career. Highest K/9. His H/9 and HR/9 were up a bit. Maybe advanced stats show something concerning but I'll just chalk his 2019 homer problem up to variance of a small sample and juiced ball.

I think the biggest issue here is perception. If a starting pitcher has an increased homerun rate but everything else is the same or better it's not going to be as noticeable since the homers are coming in innings 1-5 or so. If a reliever's HR rate goes it's going to be very noticeable as he'll be losing games.


This.

A starter can deal with being ricked for 7 runs in 3 innings simply because they could later run off a string of quality starts.

Relievers have 1-2 innings at any given time. A bad outing sticks around longer and causes a greater distortion.

Hader was better overall, and most of the time did well. But when he was off, well, let's just say there are baby seals who met fishermen in the Canadian arctic who had better days.


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Offline  Re: Live and die with Josh Hader:
#97

Posted: October 03, 2019, 9:36 PM Post
Posts: 40
JosephC said:
Hader was extremely frustrating to watch this year. He has success with his fastball and I would assume that the strikeout analytics suggest just keep throwing high fastballs as that inflates the K-rate and that is all baseball is about these days. To use an old, tired cliché, there was no pitching going on there, all throwing.

So at the end of the season, every opposing MLB hitter knows that he only throws a slider 15% of the time and 64% of the time the slider will be a ball. Why show respect for anything other than the fastball? So he gives up 9 home runs in the last 35 innings he pitches and he and the Brewers just say it's simply bad location and there is nothing wrong. Well, maybe he lacks a proper margin "for location error" because hitters only have to worry about one thing. Maybe if they actually had to worry about a second pitch, then it might not be so easy for them to just sit on the one pitch and smash it when it's not in the right spot. The numbers pretty much show that, on average, Hader will throw one slider per at bat and, on average, that one slider will be a ball...so why not just ignore any slider that's thrown and just sit on the fastball?


Agreed. I have no patience for inconsistency and that's Hader. Two pitches folks. That's not good. Most of the time his slider is a fastball anyway, just out of control. Knebel can't heal fast enough. This wait and see approach with bullpen pitchers is frustrating. Why not have someone at least throwing the ball there. Something. Seems like there's some gentlemen's agreement not impeding with the pitcher on the mound. What managers out there hook their pitchers quickly I am wondering.


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Offline  Re: Live and die with Josh Hader:
#98

Posted: October 03, 2019, 10:00 PM Post
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geargroy said:
Two pitches folks. That's not good.


Most relievers, yes even the good ones, have just two pitches.


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Online  Re: Live and die with Josh Hader:
#99

Posted: October 03, 2019, 11:31 PM Post
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geargroy said:
Agreed. I have no patience for inconsistency and that's Hader. Two pitches folks. That's not good. Most of the time his slider is a fastball anyway, just out of control. Knebel can't heal fast enough.


What is Knebel’s third pitch?

You say you have no patience for inconsistency, over the last three seasons Hader has been the best relief pitcher in MLB that isn’t going to be pitching in the Venezuelan Penal League next year.

Knebel was historically great in 2017, was sent down to AAA due to ineffectiveness in 2018 & hurt in 2019.

How is that more consistent than Hader who has posted ERA- marks of 47, 60 & 59 to go along with FIP- marks 70, 54 & 69 in his three MLB seasons?


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Offline  Re: Live and die with Josh Hader:
Posted: October 04, 2019, 12:01 AM Post
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PeaveyFury said:
geargroy said:
Two pitches folks. That's not good.


Most relievers, yes even the good ones, have just two pitches.


Unfortunately for us in that WC game he couldn't control either one. That happens.


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