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Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020

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Offline  Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020
#1

Posted: October 09, 2019, 5:16 PM Post
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MLB Trade Rumors has released their arbitration estimates for 2020. They are usually pretty good about their estimates, but are not perfect. No matter, it's nice to see some numbers as the club puts together next year's club.

Chase Anderson – $10.3MM – club option for $8.5MM
Jimmy Nelson – $3.7MM
Hernan Perez – $3.0MM
Corey Knebel – $5.125MM
Alex Claudio – $2.2MM
Travis Shaw – $4.7MM
Manny Pina – $2.2MM – club option for $1.85MM with a $150K buyout
Cory Spangenberg – $1.5MM
Zach Davies – $5.0MM
Junior Guerra – $3.5MM
Tyler Saladino – $1.0MM
Orlando Arcia – $2.7MM
Ben Gamel – $1.6MM
Brent Suter – $900K
Tyler Austin – $1.2MM

Full list: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/ ... -2020.html


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Online  Re: Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020
#2

Posted: October 09, 2019, 5:54 PM Post
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Chase Anderson – $10.3MM – club option for $8.5MM NO
Jimmy Nelson – $3.7MM NO
Hernan Perez – $3.0MM NO
Corey Knebel – $5.125MM YES
Alex Claudio – $2.2MM NO
Travis Shaw – $4.7MM NO OR TRADE IF POSSIBLE
Manny Pina – $2.2MM – club option for $1.85MM with a $150K buyout YES
Cory Spangenberg – $1.5MM NO
Zach Davies – $5.0MM YES
Junior Guerra – $3.5MM YES
Tyler Saladino – $1.0MM NO
Orlando Arcia – $2.7MM YES
Ben Gamel – $1.6MM YES
Brent Suter – $900K YES
Tyler Austin – $1.2MM NO

A lot of BP arms. Guys like Nelson/Claudio aren’t terrible options, but I’d rather dump them and put the money towards Pomeranz. Obviously any of the “NOs” I’d trade if possible, but Shaw seems like the only one that could garner some trade value (albeit very little). We may see ourselves offer to him and just release him if Moustakas comes back...essentially a low cost insurance god forbid we need to roll the dice on him.


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Offline  Re: Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020
#3

Posted: October 09, 2019, 6:13 PM Post
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MrTPlush said:
Alex Claudio – $2.2MM NO


The only one I disagree with you on. They paid Boone Logan nearly that much to sit at home last year.


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Offline  Re: Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020
#4

Posted: October 09, 2019, 6:21 PM Post
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Chase Anderson – $10.3MM – club option for $8.5MM: Yes but trade to the Angels and send $4m for Maitan and Yan
Jimmy Nelson – $3.7MM: offer no but try and sign to a MiLB contract
Hernan Perez – $3.0MM: No
Corey Knebel – $5.125MM: Yes
Alex Claudio – $2.2MM: Yes
Travis Shaw – $4.7MM: Yes
Manny Pina – $2.2MM – club option for $1.85MM with a $150K buyout: Yes
Cory Spangenberg – $1.5MM: No
Zach Davies – $5.0MM: Yes
Junior Guerra – $3.5MM: NO
Tyler Saladino – $1.0MM: GOD NO
Orlando Arcia – $2.7MM: Yes unfortunately
Ben Gamel – $1.6MM: Yes
Brent Suter – $900K: Yes
Tyler Austin – $1.2MM: offer no but try and sign to a MiLB contract

So about $23m in arbitration including the $4m being sent to the Angels. I don't see Moustakas coming back so Shaw will need to be offered arbitration as there really isn't another good option in free agency. If Moustakas is not coming back I would really want Austin back and depending on the SS FA market Spangenburg wouldn't be a bad option to bring back either.


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Offline  Re: Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020
#5

Posted: October 09, 2019, 6:25 PM Post
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Chase Anderson – $10.3MM – club option for $8.5MM - EXERCISE OPTIONS FOR 2020 and 2021, TRY TO TRADE
Jimmy Nelson – $3.7MM - NON-TENDER, NRI
Hernan Perez – $3.0MM - TENDER
Corey Knebel – $5.125MM - TENDER
Alex Claudio – $2.2MM - TENDER, BUT TRY TO TRADE
Travis Shaw – $4.7MM - TENDER, BUT TRY TO TRADE
Manny Pina – $2.2MM – club option for $1.85MM with a $150K buyout - TENDER
Cory Spangenberg – $1.5MM - TENDER
Zach Davies – $5.0MM - TENDER
Junior Guerra – $3.5MM - TENDER
Tyler Saladino – $1.0MM - NON-TENDER
Orlando Arcia – $2.7MM - TENDER, BUT TRY TO TRADE
Ben Gamel – $1.6MM - TENDER, BUT TRY TO TRADE
Brent Suter – $900K - TENDER (Extend?)
Tyler Austin – $1.2MM - NON-TENDER


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Offline  Re: Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020
#6

Posted: October 09, 2019, 6:44 PM Post
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MrTPlush said:
Chase Anderson – $10.3MM – club option for $8.5MM NO
Jimmy Nelson – $3.7MM NO
Hernan Perez – $3.0MM NO
Corey Knebel – $5.125MM YES
Alex Claudio – $2.2MM NO
Travis Shaw – $4.7MM NO OR TRADE IF POSSIBLE
Manny Pina – $2.2MM – club option for $1.85MM with a $150K buyout YES
Cory Spangenberg – $1.5MM NO
Zach Davies – $5.0MM YES
Junior Guerra – $3.5MM YES
Tyler Saladino – $1.0MM NO
Orlando Arcia – $2.7MM YES
Ben Gamel – $1.6MM YES
Brent Suter – $900K YES
Tyler Austin – $1.2MM NO

A lot of BP arms. Guys like Nelson/Claudio aren’t terrible options, but I’d rather dump them and put the money towards Pomeranz. Obviously any of the “NOs” I’d trade if possible, but Shaw seems like the only one that could garner some trade value (albeit very little). We may see ourselves offer to him and just release him if Moustakas comes back...essentially a low cost insurance god forbid we need to roll the dice on him.


I get it if that's what you want, but if the questions is what will the Brewers do, there is no way they non-tender all those guys in my opinion. Remmeber that arb salaries are not guaranteed. I think Jimmy gets tendered for sure, and Caludio is a no doubter. Perez is a maybe. Shaw is also a maybe, but perhaps trending toward no. I think Spangenberg is a pretty sure yes.


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Online  Re: Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020
#7

Posted: October 09, 2019, 7:15 PM Post
Posts: 12178
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
MrTPlush said:
Chase Anderson – $10.3MM – club option for $8.5MM NO
Jimmy Nelson – $3.7MM NO
Hernan Perez – $3.0MM NO
Corey Knebel – $5.125MM YES
Alex Claudio – $2.2MM NO
Travis Shaw – $4.7MM NO OR TRADE IF POSSIBLE
Manny Pina – $2.2MM – club option for $1.85MM with a $150K buyout YES
Cory Spangenberg – $1.5MM NO
Zach Davies – $5.0MM YES
Junior Guerra – $3.5MM YES
Tyler Saladino – $1.0MM NO
Orlando Arcia – $2.7MM YES
Ben Gamel – $1.6MM YES
Brent Suter – $900K YES
Tyler Austin – $1.2MM NO

A lot of BP arms. Guys like Nelson/Claudio aren’t terrible options, but I’d rather dump them and put the money towards Pomeranz. Obviously any of the “NOs” I’d trade if possible, but Shaw seems like the only one that could garner some trade value (albeit very little). We may see ourselves offer to him and just release him if Moustakas comes back...essentially a low cost insurance god forbid we need to roll the dice on him.


I get it if that's what you want, but if the questions is what will the Brewers do, there is no way they non-tender all those guys in my opinion. Remmeber that arb salaries are not guaranteed. I think Jimmy gets tendered for sure, and Caludio is a no doubter. Perez is a maybe. Shaw is also a maybe, but perhaps trending toward no. I think Spangenberg is a pretty sure yes.

How many utility guys are you tendering? They have already bashed SS and how it needs to change. $3mil for Perez? Highly doubt that...why would we do that? Half those guys can just get invites or pick one of the 50 or so similar players sitting out there.

They may tender Claudio, wouldn’t surprise me. I don’t have a huge problem there. They may tender Nelson too.

Anderson is also a likely accept option and trade candidate. Forgot to mention that. I’d guess Shaw is the same if they get Moustakas back.


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Offline  Re: Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020
#8

Posted: October 09, 2019, 7:39 PM Post
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I’d offer everyone except Austin, Spangenberg, and Perez. I would hope to trade Anderson and Davies


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Online  Re: Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020
#9

Posted: October 09, 2019, 8:34 PM Post
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MrTPlush said:
Chase Anderson – $10.3MM – club option for $8.5MM NO
Jimmy Nelson – $3.7MM NO
Hernan Perez – $3.0MM NO
Corey Knebel – $5.125MM YES
Alex Claudio – $2.2MM NO
Travis Shaw – $4.7MM NO OR TRADE IF POSSIBLE
Manny Pina – $2.2MM – club option for $1.85MM with a $150K buyout YES
Cory Spangenberg – $1.5MM NO
Zach Davies – $5.0MM YES
Junior Guerra – $3.5MM YES
Tyler Saladino – $1.0MM NO
Orlando Arcia – $2.7MM YES
Ben Gamel – $1.6MM YES
Brent Suter – $900K YES
Tyler Austin – $1.2MM NO


Also agree with all of this other than Claudio. Could see the argument if the pen ends up having Suter, Hader, and Pomeranz already, but he's cheap enough to carry or be an easy trade.

Shaw is a challenging one to figure out. It's a killer if we throw that number out on a below replacement level player like 2019 Shaw, but it would be paying a third of the value that 2017-2018 Shaw brought. The expected price is pretty much a coin flip between those two outcomes.

We'll also see where the SS talk from Stearns leads. Arcia isn't expensive, which should make a trade doable if they decide to move on.


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Offline  Re: Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020
#10

Posted: October 09, 2019, 8:53 PM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
I get it if that's what you want, but if the questions is what will the Brewers do, there is no way they non-tender all those guys in my opinion. Remmeber that arb salaries are not guaranteed. I think Jimmy gets tendered for sure, and Caludio is a no doubter. Perez is a maybe. Shaw is also a maybe, but perhaps trending toward no. I think Spangenberg is a pretty sure yes.

I believe the club can cut the player before final rosters are set, but they still owe 1/6 of the agreed upon salary (whether via arbitration or just agreeing on a figure).

Thus a guy like Shaw, even if we agree to a $4.7M salary, could be cut prior to the start of the year and the club would own him roughly $780,000. So offering arbitration still has a financial pitfall if you don't keep the player.


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Offline  Re: Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020
#11

Posted: October 09, 2019, 9:43 PM Post
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Jimmy will be interesting. $3.7M for his potential as a SP is interesting. But given some of the goings-on to keep him at AAA, the team might move on. But it will be interesting to see what the team does here as the behind the scenes info (health, attitudes, etc) will be critical. The money isn't that much for SP depth.


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Offline  Re: Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020
#12

Posted: October 09, 2019, 10:13 PM Post
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Can’t players offered arbitration be released by a March deadline at only something like 1/6th salary?


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Offline  Re: Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020
#13

Posted: October 10, 2019, 7:43 AM Post
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Chase Anderson – $10.3MM – club option for $8.5MM Yes - option (should have some value over contract for trade if we don't want)
Jimmy Nelson – $3.7MM No. If a team doesn't agree to arby, they can negotiate with that same player the same as everyone else, right? If so, I would do that with Nelson.
Hernan Perez – $3.0MM NO
Corey Knebel – $5.125MM YES
Alex Claudio – $2.2MM Probably
Travis Shaw – $4.7MM I would hope they figure out 3B before you have to file arby (mid-January ish, right?), I would hate to have to arby Shaw because we haven't been able to sign/trade for a 3B.
Manny Pina – $2.2MM – club option for $1.85MM with a $150K buyout YES
Cory Spangenberg – $1.5MM Probably, especially if he still has options.
Zach Davies – $5.0MM YES
Junior Guerra – $3.5MM Probably
Tyler Saladino – $1.0MM NO
Orlando Arcia – $2.7MM YES
Ben Gamel – $1.6MM YES
Brent Suter – $900K YES
Tyler Austin – $1.2MM NO


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Offline  Re: Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020
#14

Posted: October 10, 2019, 7:55 AM Post

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no to hernan perez and no to tyler saladino.

absolute yes to cory spangenberg as the 26th man. versatile and fast. he is out of options, however.


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Offline  Re: Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020
#15

Posted: October 10, 2019, 9:12 AM Post
Posts: 5165
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For these contracts, be sure to keep in mind that even if a player doesn't fit...we can trade said player if they have surplus value. This is how I'm personally viewing Davies. I think he's done being a sub 4 era starter, and I don't find a ton of value in SP with a low-mid 4s ceiling. I think his contract is tradable to plenty of teams, I think we'll have enough SP options that we don't need to keep him. I'll also add Claudio at $2.2M is almost certain to be kept.

With Nelson, I wonder if we get him to agree to a deal with an option year before the arbitration deadline. So if he does bounce back to form, we get a cost controlled year of a potentially very valuable player.


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Offline  Re: Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020
#16

Posted: October 10, 2019, 9:34 AM Post
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Chase Anderson – $10.3MM – club option for $8.5MM Yes - but maybe look for a trade partner
Jimmy Nelson – $3.7MM Yes
Hernan Perez – $3.0MM No
Corey Knebel – $5.125MM Yes
Alex Claudio – $2.2MM Yes
Travis Shaw – $4.7MM Yes
Manny Pina – $2.2MM – club option for $1.85MM with a $150K buyout Yes
Cory Spangenberg – $1.5MM Yes
Zach Davies – $5.0MM Yes
Junior Guerra – $3.5MM Yes
Tyler Saladino – $1.0MM No
Orlando Arcia – $2.7MM Yes
Ben Gamel – $1.6MM Yes
Brent Suter – $900K Yes
Tyler Austin – $1.2MM No


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Offline  Re: Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020
#17

Posted: October 10, 2019, 9:51 AM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
For these contracts, be sure to keep in mind that even if a player doesn't fit...we can trade said player if they have surplus value. This is how I'm personally viewing Davies. I think he's done being a sub 4 era starter, and I don't find a ton of value in SP with a low-mid 4s ceiling. I think his contract is tradable to plenty of teams, I think we'll have enough SP options that we don't need to keep him. I'll also add Claudio at $2.2M is almost certain to be kept.

With Nelson, I wonder if we get him to agree to a deal with an option year before the arbitration deadline. So if he does bounce back to form, we get a cost controlled year of a potentially very valuable player.


I don't see any incentive on Nelson's part to agree to a club option. He's already 30 and inching closer to where free agents don't get multi-year guarantees. Second, he has missed nearly two years with injuries. With huge financial consequences, I'd assume he is going to want to bet on himself in hopes of cashing in on a strong 2020 season.

If the Brewers don't tender him, I'm almost certain he'd choose to go to a team where he has a clear shot to make the rotation (not necessarily the case with Milwaukee if he took a NRI).

Funny thing about Nelson, I was convinced he was finished as a Brewer, then there was that last appearance against Colorado wherein he looked dominant: mid-90s fastball, struck out four of the six hitters he faced. Its the ultimate small sample, but I'd almost be tempted to take a 3.7 million dollar gamble.

As for the rest, I assume they will pick up the options on Anderson and Pina.

I think they will tender contracts to: Knebel, Claudio, Shaw, Spangenberg, Davies, Guerra, Arcia, Gamel, Suter, and Austin.

Shaw was a disaster in '19, but his career OPS with Milwaukee is still .790, he plays solid defense at 3B and has 2 more years of team control, you give those type of players another shot before moving on.

Austin will platoon with Thames at 1B and play against LHP. Career marks of .253/.345/.539 against LHP.

I've always like Hernan Perez, but players with his skill set are readily available for less than 3 million per.


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Offline  Re: Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020
#18

Posted: October 10, 2019, 9:59 AM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
For these contracts, be sure to keep in mind that even if a player doesn't fit...we can trade said player if they have surplus value. This is how I'm personally viewing Davies. I think he's done being a sub 4 era starter, and I don't find a ton of value in SP with a low-mid 4s ceiling. I think his contract is tradable to plenty of teams, I think we'll have enough SP options that we don't need to keep him. I'll also add Claudio at $2.2M is almost certain to be kept.

With Nelson, I wonder if we get him to agree to a deal with an option year before the arbitration deadline. So if he does bounce back to form, we get a cost controlled year of a potentially very valuable player.


Zach Davies is going into his age 27 season. Why in the world would you "think he's done being a sub 4 era starter" besides just not liking the guy? You need to expand on this idea a bit, because I'm just not seeing it. Davies is never going to be a Cy Young-type, but I see no reason why can can't continue to be a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter. The amount of crap he takes around here, simply because he's not throwing his fastball in the upper 90s, is pretty astounding to me.


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Offline  Re: Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020
#19

Posted: October 10, 2019, 10:02 AM Post
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Moving on from Shaw right now would be kinda crazy imo. He fell so precipitously that you almost think it has to be a solvable issue.


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Offline  Re: Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020
#20

Posted: October 10, 2019, 10:03 AM Post
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Location: New Berlin, WI
Jopal78! said:
KeithStone53151 said:
For these contracts, be sure to keep in mind that even if a player doesn't fit...we can trade said player if they have surplus value. This is how I'm personally viewing Davies. I think he's done being a sub 4 era starter, and I don't find a ton of value in SP with a low-mid 4s ceiling. I think his contract is tradable to plenty of teams, I think we'll have enough SP options that we don't need to keep him. I'll also add Claudio at $2.2M is almost certain to be kept.

With Nelson, I wonder if we get him to agree to a deal with an option year before the arbitration deadline. So if he does bounce back to form, we get a cost controlled year of a potentially very valuable player.


I don't see any incentive on Nelson's part to agree to a club option. He's already 30 and inching closer to where free agents don't get multi-year guarantees. Second, he has missed nearly two years with injuries. With huge financial consequences, I'd assume he is going to want to bet on himself in hopes of cashing in on a strong 2020 season.

If the Brewers don't tender him, I'm almost certain he'd choose to go to a team where he has a clear shot to make the rotation (not necessarily the case with Milwaukee if he took a NRI).

Funny thing about Nelson, I was convinced he was finished as a Brewer, then there was that last appearance against Colorado wherein he looked dominant: mid-90s fastball, struck out four of the six hitters he faced. Its the ultimate small sample, but I'd almost be tempted to take a 3.7 million dollar gamble.


I'm not entirely certain he'd get a major league deal elsewhere after 2+ lost seasons. A club option is a big benefit to us taking the risk giving guaranteed money. He might get a chance with a team like the marlins or orioles, if he wants to try and play on a losing team that will probably be bad defensively behind him. Offering him $2.5m this year with a $7m option and $1m buyout for 2021 would be a pretty good offer. In fairness, Nelson's market is pretty tough to gauge in his situation...30 years old, 2 years from pitching effectively, but still showing promise. I do hope we find a way to keep him and love the idea of a contract with an option year.


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