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Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020

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Offline  Re: Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020
#21

Posted: October 10, 2019, 10:13 AM Post
Posts: 5107
Location: New Berlin, WI
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
KeithStone53151 said:
For these contracts, be sure to keep in mind that even if a player doesn't fit...we can trade said player if they have surplus value. This is how I'm personally viewing Davies. I think he's done being a sub 4 era starter, and I don't find a ton of value in SP with a low-mid 4s ceiling. I think his contract is tradable to plenty of teams, I think we'll have enough SP options that we don't need to keep him. I'll also add Claudio at $2.2M is almost certain to be kept.

With Nelson, I wonder if we get him to agree to a deal with an option year before the arbitration deadline. So if he does bounce back to form, we get a cost controlled year of a potentially very valuable player.


Zach Davies is going into his age 27 season. Why in the world would you "think he's done being a sub 4 era starter" besides just not liking the guy? You need to expand on this idea a bit, because I'm just not seeing it. Davies is never going to be a Cy Young-type, but I see no reason why can can't continue to be a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter. The amount of crap he takes around here, simply because he's not throwing his fastball in the upper 90s, is pretty astounding to me.


This year, Davies was basically a 2 pitch pitcher. For me, sinker/cutter and changeup are basically 2 pitches...sinker and cutter aren't different enough at the speed he throws to really fool anyone...plus he only threw the cutter 11%. Generally, 2 pitch starters are not successful. There are exceptions, those exceptions usually have 2 plus pitches...while Davies has a plus change/command with far below average everything else. Also, through the year...the spin rate on all of Davies pitches decreased pretty steadily. As it did, his results went with it. Which tells me he either wore down or was pitching through an injury. If you also factor in the arms we have available and the upside we have available, keeping someone like Davies seems just crazy to me. We have Woodruff, Suter, Houser that we can basically lock into the rotation along with a ton of options to compete for rotation spots. And I know people want to bring back Lyles if possible, which would be a 4th spot gone.


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Offline  Re: Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020
#22

Posted: October 10, 2019, 10:29 AM Post
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Posts: 9232
KeithStone53151 said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
KeithStone53151 said:
For these contracts, be sure to keep in mind that even if a player doesn't fit...we can trade said player if they have surplus value. This is how I'm personally viewing Davies. I think he's done being a sub 4 era starter, and I don't find a ton of value in SP with a low-mid 4s ceiling. I think his contract is tradable to plenty of teams, I think we'll have enough SP options that we don't need to keep him. I'll also add Claudio at $2.2M is almost certain to be kept.

With Nelson, I wonder if we get him to agree to a deal with an option year before the arbitration deadline. So if he does bounce back to form, we get a cost controlled year of a potentially very valuable player.


Zach Davies is going into his age 27 season. Why in the world would you "think he's done being a sub 4 era starter" besides just not liking the guy? You need to expand on this idea a bit, because I'm just not seeing it. Davies is never going to be a Cy Young-type, but I see no reason why can can't continue to be a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter. The amount of crap he takes around here, simply because he's not throwing his fastball in the upper 90s, is pretty astounding to me.


This year, Davies was basically a 2 pitch pitcher. For me, sinker/cutter and changeup are basically 2 pitches...sinker and cutter aren't different enough at the speed he throws to really fool anyone...plus he only threw the cutter 11%. Generally, 2 pitch starters are not successful. There are exceptions, those exceptions usually have 2 plus pitches...while Davies has a plus change/command with far below average everything else. Also, through the year...the spin rate on all of Davies pitches decreased pretty steadily. As it did, his results went with it. Which tells me he either wore down or was pitching through an injury. If you also factor in the arms we have available and the upside we have available, keeping someone like Davies seems just crazy to me. We have Woodruff, Suter, Houser that we can basically lock into the rotation along with a ton of options to compete for rotation spots. And I know people want to bring back Lyles if possible, which would be a 4th spot gone.


Thanks for the well-thought-out response. While I disagree, I appreciate you backing up your thoughts with numbers that support them. I suppose my only counter would be that, when healthy, Davies has proven to be a solid mid-3 ERA starting pitcher for a pretty large sample now. He had some bumps in the road this season, but more or less was good after he got over his mid-season lull which I would contend was caused by an injury he was trying to pitch through. I have a hard time seeing Suter as a lock for the rotation as well. He was so good in that multi-inning relief role this season that I think there is just as likely a chance that he's kept there as there is he being moved back into the rotation. As the Brewers proved this year, you can never have enough solid starting pitching options. They got very lucky with Lyles, but how often are you going to be able to pull a guy off the scrap heap and see him pitch like an ace? Sure, if another team makes a great offer on Davies, you have to consider it. But I personally don't see him going anywhere. I see him back as the #3-4 guy in next year's rotation.


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Offline  Re: Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020
#23

Posted: October 10, 2019, 10:30 AM Post
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Suter locked into the rotation?

I question that statement.

I don't think he is going to have the same success we saw in 2019 as a starter. He seems like the kid of guy that would flourish in that 2 - 3 inning relief role, where no one sees him for a second or 3rd time through the order.

I'd leave him right where he finished the season rather than looking to add him to the rotation

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Online  Re: Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020
#24

Posted: October 10, 2019, 10:31 AM Post
Posts: 18936
Suter isn't locked into a rotation spot. Stearns has really strongly implied that he'll do some of both next year. Basically a long man/swing man role.


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Offline  Re: Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020
#25

Posted: October 10, 2019, 10:32 AM Post
Posts: 11880
OldSchoolSnapper said:
Moving on from Shaw right now would be kinda crazy imo. He fell so precipitously that you almost think it has to be a solvable issue.


He may turn it around, but if they resign Moustakas there really isn't anywhere to play him. We really going to spend over $5mil for him to ride the bench? I guess we could...but I just don't see how that is to the benefit of us or Shaw. I just think there are better ways to spend money. When you have a lot of talent sometimes you just have to let someone go even if you know they may do well for someone else.

I am not really opposed to bringing him back, but I would hope it wouldn't effect other plans/moves.


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Offline  Re: Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020
#26

Posted: October 10, 2019, 10:36 AM Post
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My fear is that we let Moose walk, rolling the dice on Shaw, and that he is 2019 Travis Shaw.

I'm not sure I can watch another season of that version...

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020
#27

Posted: October 10, 2019, 10:44 AM Post
Posts: 11880
turborickey said:
My fear is that we let Moose walk, rolling the dice on Shaw, and that he is 2019 Travis Shaw.

I'm not sure I can watch another season of that version...


They would probably cut bait after a month and Hernan Perez would be the 3B.

So that's good right?


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Offline  Re: Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020
#28

Posted: October 10, 2019, 10:53 AM Post
Posts: 12094
OldSchoolSnapper said:
Moving on from Shaw right now would be kinda crazy imo. He fell so precipitously that you almost think it has to be a solvable issue.


Not crazy if they find a way to keep Moustakas. If it were easily solvable, why did he still look as lost at the end of the season? Look I don't think Shaw has much value if he becomes a FA. No contending team would take him. Even rebuilding clubs would structure a heavily incentive laden deal with a low base.


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Offline  Re: Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020
#29

Posted: October 10, 2019, 10:57 AM Post
Posts: 12094
OldSchoolSnapper said:
Moving on from Shaw right now would be kinda crazy imo. He fell so precipitously that you almost think it has to be a solvable issue.


Not crazy if they find a way to keep Moustakas. If it were easily solvable, why did he still look as lost at the end of the season? Look I don't think Shaw has much value if he becomes a FA. No contending team would take him. Even rebuilding clubs would structure a heavily incentive laden deal with a low base.

I don't think investing under $4 million in Nelson is a bad idea. His last couple appearances, his stuff was nasty and he might play very well as a late inning reliever if that's his focus from day one.


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Offline  Re: Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020
#30

Posted: October 10, 2019, 11:06 AM Post
Posts: 11880
One thing to keep in mind with our tight payroll...Nelson and Shaw's amounts aren't high by themselves, but when you start signing a few risky guys to take a shot on suddenly you have almost $8mil in those two alone. Throw in Guerra and even Knebel...pushing like $15mil in roll the dice type players. Knebel very well may not be that good next year. Id rather cut bait on Nelson/Shaw if that means Pomeranz comes back (and wouldn't if we spend so much on these arby guys).


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Offline  Re: Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020
#31

Posted: October 10, 2019, 11:11 AM Post
Posts: 737
McCalvy says Hader is Arbitration Eligible as a Super Two

https://twitter.com/AdamMcCalvy/status/ ... 1939745792


Last edited by brooks_quichenick on October 10, 2019, 11:12 AM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020
#32

Posted: October 10, 2019, 11:11 AM Post

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gotta add josh hader to the mix as super two.


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Offline  Re: Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020
#33

Posted: October 10, 2019, 11:18 AM Post
Posts: 3373
MrTPlush said:
Chase Anderson – $10.3MM – club option for $8.5MM NO
Jimmy Nelson – $3.7MM NO
Hernan Perez – $3.0MM NO
Corey Knebel – $5.125MM YES
Alex Claudio – $2.2MM NO
Travis Shaw – $4.7MM NO OR TRADE IF POSSIBLE
Manny Pina – $2.2MM – club option for $1.85MM with a $150K buyout YES
Cory Spangenberg – $1.5MM NO
Zach Davies – $5.0MM YES
Junior Guerra – $3.5MM YES
Tyler Saladino – $1.0MM NO
Orlando Arcia – $2.7MM YES
Ben Gamel – $1.6MM YES
Brent Suter – $900K YES
Tyler Austin – $1.2MM NO

A lot of BP arms. Guys like Nelson/Claudio aren’t terrible options, but I’d rather dump them and put the money towards Pomeranz. Obviously any of the “NOs” I’d trade if possible, but Shaw seems like the only one that could garner some trade value (albeit very little). We may see ourselves offer to him and just release him if Moustakas comes back...essentially a low cost insurance god forbid we need to roll the dice on him.



Thought it was odd that you’d take Guerra at the same price over Nelson. I would actually lean the other way. To me Nelson has a chance at a higher ceiling. It’s a gamble for sure, but he had some good flashes down the stretch. Guerra to me is what he is. Decent option if he’s your 6/7th reliever. Brewers as a small market I guess I’m more willing to take a chance on higher upside.


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Offline  Re: Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020
#34

Posted: October 10, 2019, 11:23 AM Post
Posts: 2026
OldSchoolSnapper said:
Moving on from Shaw right now would be kinda crazy imo. He fell so precipitously that you almost think it has to be a solvable issue.


Yeah, but McGehee and to some extent (over two years) Bill Hall had huge dropoffs that happened even younger than Shaw. I do not trust Shaw to come back to 2017-8 form. My best case is thinking in the area of .725OPS. So I am almost ready to say no tender regardless if Moose goes elsewhere.


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Offline  Re: Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020
#35

Posted: October 10, 2019, 11:53 AM Post
Posts: 694
brooks_quichenick said:
McCalvy says Hader is Arbitration Eligible as a Super Two

https://twitter.com/AdamMcCalvy/status/ ... 1939745792


It will be interesting to see what his salary projection is. In the 2 minutes I spent looking on sportac I couldn't find a good comp.

I'm sure the Brewers were planning for this to be a possibility, but $600k is a pretty big difference from $5mm or whatever he will get in arbitration.


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Online  Re: Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020
#36

Posted: October 10, 2019, 12:48 PM Post
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Location: Chicago
Jonathon Papelbon got 6.25 million first first time through arbitration, and Trevor Rosenthal got 5.6 million his first time. I'd figure Hader probably aims for around 6 and the team offers 5 million


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Offline  Re: Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020
#37

Posted: October 10, 2019, 12:50 PM Post
Posts: 2977
Holy cow that cutoff is low this year, guess it was bound to happen if everybody waits to bring up prospects.


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Offline  Re: Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020
#38

Posted: October 10, 2019, 1:00 PM Post
Posts: 5107
Location: New Berlin, WI
Jopal78! said:
Jonathon Papelbon got 6.25 million first first time through arbitration, and Trevor Rosenthal got 5.6 million his first time. I'd figure Hader probably aims for around 6 and the team offers 5 million


Those are good numbers to look at, but those are also a few years old. He'd be completely justified aiming higher. His ratios are off the charts for a reliever. Based on these numbers, I'd be surprised if Hader got less than 6 this year.


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Online  Re: Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020
#39

Posted: October 10, 2019, 1:57 PM Post
Posts: 18936
Oof, that's great news for Hader, not great news for the Brewers. That news alone adds probably 5M to our payroll.


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Offline  Re: Projected Arbitration Numbers for 2020
#40

Posted: October 10, 2019, 2:25 PM Post
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I know every season is different when it comes to the Super 2 cut off, but looking at Hader's debut being June 10, 2017 and comparing to Hiura's debut this season, it's not looking good for the Brewers avoiding Hiura's Super 2 status.

Hiura debuted May 14, spent 21 days with the Brewers going back down on June 3rd, spending 25 days in the minors until returning on June 28th. Removing the gap and just going by games played it would be as if Hiura had debuted on June 7th. Yikes. Really have to hope Hader's debut season was an outlier.


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