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Grandal declines mutual option

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Online  Grandal declines mutual option
#1

Posted: October 31, 2019, 7:19 PM Post
Posts: 19212
https://www.brewcrewball.com/2019/10/31 ... nnati-reds

This was never anything more than a formality, but there it is.

It was a fun couple of hours when we thought this was a team option, though.


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#2

Posted: October 31, 2019, 7:29 PM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
Lots of people think he'll get big numbers but, when considering what has happened in free agency the last couple of years, I tend to think the numbers will be a bit lower. He turns 31 about 1 week from now and pretty much all teams will be factoring in the age decline at this point. I'm thinking 3 years in the 48 to 54 million range.

If he stays in the 3 year, 48 million dollar area, I definitely think the Brewers should be in on him. I figure they'll probably have 30 million to spend, and I wouldn't mind seeing them dedicate just over half of that to Grandal.


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#3

Posted: October 31, 2019, 7:39 PM Post
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I hope he signs the big one so we don’t have a full season bashing them Brewers front office like we tend to do with these situations.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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#4

Posted: October 31, 2019, 8:01 PM Post
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Well on a slightly related note the Brewers have picked up Manny Piña’s $1.85 million option (Link).


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#5

Posted: October 31, 2019, 8:18 PM Post
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Eye Black said:
Well on a slightly related note the Brewers have picked up Manny Piña’s $1.85 million option (Link).

Good move. A no-brainer.


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#6

Posted: October 31, 2019, 10:23 PM Post
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JosephC said:
Lots of people think he'll get big numbers but, when considering what has happened in free agency the last couple of years, I tend to think the numbers will be a bit lower. He turns 31 about 1 week from now and pretty much all teams will be factoring in the age decline at this point. I'm thinking 3 years in the 48 to 54 million range.

If he stays in the 3 year, 48 million dollar area, I definitely think the Brewers should be in on him. I figure they'll probably have 30 million to spend, and I wouldn't mind seeing them dedicate just over half of that to Grandal.


Agreed. He essentially had the same year in 2019 as he had in 2018, except now he is one year older.

I’d be fine with something around 3/50. There is considerable risk, no doubt, but no other catcher offers remotely similar reward.


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#7

Posted: November 01, 2019, 4:02 AM Post
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The biggest difference for Grandal as compared to last off-season is he is no longer tethered to the qualifying offer and loss of a draft pick.

My belief is that he ends up at the high end of that range, or even slightly higher. I would guess he’ll receive an AAV between $17.5 to $19 million over either 3 or 4 years.

I think only a team or two will be willing to add a 4th year. My prediction is he ends up with a 4 year deal for $72 million. I have a bad feeling the Reds are indeed his most likely landing spot.


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#8

Posted: November 01, 2019, 6:33 AM Post
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Eye Black said:
The biggest difference for Grandal as compared to last off-season is he is no longer tethered to the qualifying offer and loss of a draft pick.

My belief is that he ends up at the high end of that range, or even slightly higher. I would guess he’ll receive an AAV between $17.5 to $19 million over either 3 or 4 years.

I think only a team or two will be willing to add a 4th year. My prediction is he ends up with a 4 year deal for $72 million. I have a bad feeling the Reds are indeed his most likely landing spot.


Just my opinion, but perhaps Grandal won't want to go to a completely rudderless, poorly run organization like the Reds at this point in his career. That team sucks, and he's not going to make them a contender. They got a bunch of press last spring and sucked again. To me, they suck until they prove they won't suck, and they haven't proven anything.


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#9

Posted: November 01, 2019, 7:28 AM Post
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Interesting question about wanting to continue playing for a contending team.

Hypothetically, if you are Grandal and the Reds offer you 4 years/$80 million but the highest the Brewers are willing to go is 4 years/$72 million, which offer do you take?

Many fans think that it's a no-brainer that Grandal would want to take the Brewers offer in this scenario, for the reasons of returning to a contending team on which you have a bond formed with teammates, etc.

However, 8 million dollars is still 8 million dollars.

I still think money is always the bottom line and the main factor for free agents decisions, ultimately.

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#10

Posted: November 01, 2019, 7:47 AM Post
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A Swing and A Drive said:
Interesting question about wanting to continue playing for a contending team.

Hypothetically, if you are Grandal and the Reds offer you 4 years/$80 million but the highest the Brewers are willing to go is 4 years/$72 million, which offer do you take?

Many fans think that it's a no-brainer that Grandal would want to take the Brewers offer in this scenario, for the reasons of returning to a contending team on which you have a bond formed with teammates, etc.

However, 8 million dollars is still 8 million dollars.

I still think money is always the bottom line and the main factor for free agents decisions, ultimately.


Good point. There have been veterans that have taken discounts to play for a contender, but it certainly doesn't happen often. It wasn't like Grandal took the Brewers' offer last year because he wanted to play for a contender. It was simply the biggest per year deal he was offered.

But I think that if the Reds and Brewers offer similar deals, Grandal would likely take the Brewers' offer. But the Reds have been known to hand out ridiculously asinine deals in the past, so them throwing $80+ million at Grandal wouldn't surprise me.


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#11

Posted: November 01, 2019, 7:52 AM Post
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Guys, I by no means would be sleeping on the Reds as a legit threat next year.

Would love Grandal back but I think I just cut it off at 3 years as a hard line. Unless there is a noticeable yearly discount to get it.


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#12

Posted: November 01, 2019, 8:04 AM Post
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tmwiese55 said:
Guys, I by no means would be sleeping on the Reds as a legit threat next year.

Would love Grandal back but I think I just cut it off at 3 years as a hard line. Unless there is a noticeable yearly discount to get it.


That is pretty much verbatim what many said about the Reds last year, and they were bad again. I throw them into the same bucket as the Phillies and Mets ... they are bad until they prove otherwise, regardless of how much money they spend on supposed "upgrades" or how much preseason hype they get. They have talent, but it is still a poorly run organization in my opinion.


Last edited by Joey Meyer Bombs on November 01, 2019, 8:05 AM, edited 1 time in total.

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#13

Posted: November 01, 2019, 8:05 AM Post
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tmwiese55 said:
Guys, I by no means would be sleeping on the Reds as a legit threat next year.

Would love Grandal back but I think I just cut it off at 3 years as a hard line. Unless there is a noticeable yearly discount to get it.

Obviously there is an entire off season to go but I'd take it a step further and say that if the Reds do sign Grandal, another bat and a couple of top end bullpen arms, I'm not sure they aren't the better team. And yes, they have the money and prospects to easily accomplish that.

but it's not like every guy suddenly forgot every piece of advice he gave


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#14

Posted: November 01, 2019, 8:10 AM Post
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As nice as Grandal's year was a few things concern me. It was heavily buoyed by an increased walk rate...can that actually be consistent? If he comes back down to earth that is a huge hit to his value. Cain had that happen this year. He also had the same slugging percentage in 2019 as 2018 even though he went to a better ballpark. To me that was a little disappointing that his only increase in offensive production was taking some additional walks.

I don't think he gets 4 years from anyone and if they do, have fun, hopefully not us.


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#15

Posted: November 01, 2019, 8:19 AM Post
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I look at the Grandal situation this way. Back in 2016, and hope of contending in the next few years, the Brewers rebuffed 30-year-old Jonathon Lucroy's attempt and talking extension, and traded him off. He was a home-grown, extremely popular player who was still very productive. Is Stearns going to suddenly reverse course and hand a very lucrative long-term deal to Grandal, who is the same age? Do they see Grandal as a different type of player from Lucroy ... one that can maintain his offensive production while playing catcher into his mid-30s? Because they surely made the right decision on Lucroy.


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#16

Posted: November 01, 2019, 9:41 AM Post
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Three of the top four comparisons to Grandal through age 30 are Todd Hundley, Charles Johnson, and Jarrod Saltamachia.

Hundley had a falloff due to injury after age 31, never played more than 100 games. Saltamacchia also fell off, but was never at the heights Grandal was. Johnson actually held up through ages 31 and 32. His age 33 year saw a drop, but a sample size of 55 ABs... so?

The jump in the walk rate is intriguing. A one-off? Or not?

Grandal came to Milwaukee for the high AAV. I'd go 3 years, $67.5 million, with $15 million deferred.

Maybe a higher AAV can offset a three-year deal.


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#17

Posted: November 01, 2019, 9:55 AM Post
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A Swing and A Drive said:
Interesting question about wanting to continue playing for a contending team.

Hypothetically, if you are Grandal and the Reds offer you 4 years/$80 million but the highest the Brewers are willing to go is 4 years/$72 million, which offer do you take?

Many fans think that it's a no-brainer that Grandal would want to take the Brewers offer in this scenario, for the reasons of returning to a contending team on which you have a bond formed with teammates, etc.

However, 8 million dollars is still 8 million dollars.

I still think money is always the bottom line and the main factor for free agents decisions, ultimately.


The reason Grandal took the one year offer last season was because he didn't want to lower the average annual salary for catchers by taking a lower AAV multi year deal. He mentioned how those who came before him created the market that got him that much per year and he wasn't going to be the one who lowered it for future players. So I doubt he's going to take a lower deal just to stick with the better team.

There needs to be a King Thames version of the bible.


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#18

Posted: November 01, 2019, 10:17 AM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
I look at the Grandal situation this way. Back in 2016, and hope of contending in the next few years, the Brewers rebuffed 30-year-old Jonathon Lucroy's attempt and talking extension, and traded him off. He was a home-grown, extremely popular player who was still very productive. Is Stearns going to suddenly reverse course and hand a very lucrative long-term deal to Grandal, who is the same age? Do they see Grandal as a different type of player from Lucroy ... one that can maintain his offensive production while playing catcher into his mid-30s? Because they surely made the right decision on Lucroy.


A few things:

1) To be fair we didn’t know when we would contend. I’m sure the Brewers front office thought 2019, maybe 2018. Not saying they were shooting for those years, but they are just like us and are probably figuring into when they think the team is likely to take off. If we were contending or knew we were really close I think their viewpoint would have been different.

2) David Stearns gave old Lorenzo Cain a huge deal that, to be completely honest, screamed incoming disaster at some point. Whether that be year one or year four etc. I don’t think it is crazy to think Stearns would be willing to hand out another questionable deal to an older player at his respective position.


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#19

Posted: November 01, 2019, 10:48 AM Post
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MrTPlush said:
2) David Stearns gave old Lorenzo Cain a huge deal that, to be completely honest, screamed incoming disaster at some point. Weather that be Year one or year four etc. I don’t think it is crazy to think Stearns would be willing to hand out another questionable deal to an older player at his respective position.


This is my concern with signing Grandal to a 3-4 year deal. We can't afford many contracts where we're paying big money (for the Brewers) for "okay" play. Braun is nearing the end of his deal. He's been "okay" the past couple seasons, but I think most fans will be glad to see the money freed up for better use.

Now we have Cain, who looks like he'll be "okay" for the next few seasons after signing the biggest deal in franchise history. I don't want us to continually have 30-50% of our roster locked up into a few players who are "okay."

Grandal was a great pick up on essentially a one-year deal. I don't want a 33-34 year old Grandal making a decent percentage of team payroll and under-performing. Unless you can get him on another short-term deal, I'd probably pass.

Pina/Nottingham/Frietas should be able to give us around league average results next year. Meanwhile, third base, shortstop, and especially pitching could use an upgrade. The rules are changing, so we won't be able to bring up as many pitchers next September to play the way they have the past two years. We need quality over quantity going forward, so it's probably time to spend some resources to acquire pitching.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

~Bill Walsh


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#20

Posted: November 01, 2019, 2:18 PM Post
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Grandal was going to sign with the crappy Mets before his his fake "not wanting to hurt other catchers" excuse. He'll sign with whoever offers the most money, regardless of the integrity of said organization's rudder.


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