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Grandal declines mutual option

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Offline  Re: Grandal declines mutual option
#21

Posted: November 01, 2019, 3:15 PM Post
Posts: 730
Grandal worked out perfectly for the brewers. Even during his power outage mid season he was good defensively and had a high OBP. He's #1 on my realistic wishlist. (obviously Cole, strasburg, and rendon are the top 3).

I think worst case scenario for Grandal would be a similar 1/$20mm deal. Best case would probably be 4/$80mm.

I think it settles in the middle. 3/$55-60mm. I hope it's with the brewers.


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Offline  Re: Grandal declines mutual option
#22

Posted: November 01, 2019, 3:32 PM Post
Posts: 2040
Offering a 3 year deal to further match Yelich and Cain
Offering 3 years for 50 million.... willing to nudge a bit up on $ but not years


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Offline  Re: Grandal declines mutual option
#23

Posted: November 01, 2019, 4:28 PM Post
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He's going to go with whichever team gives him the most money. So will Cole. So will the other top free agents.

And there's a big assumption that we're going to be a "contender" next season.


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Offline  Re: Grandal declines mutual option
#24

Posted: November 01, 2019, 4:29 PM Post
Posts: 1013
MrTPlush said:
As nice as Grandal's year was a few things concern me. It was heavily buoyed by an increased walk rate...can that actually be consistent?


I'd be more concerned if it was the other way around tbh, as in the change being dependent on batting average or HR rate. Someone taking (a lot) more walks (and striking out less too) will be due to a change in approach. An increase in batting average could be due to an improvement in their game (Hitting the ball harder, changed oppo/pull% etc), or it could be due to the randomness that still exists in batted ball success even after 5-600 plate appearances, or changes in the baseball.

Grandal walked more, struck out less, and hit the ball harder than he had in the past couple of seasons. Also had fewer PB/WP than in the past which is an often cited weakness of his. There's always the possibility that he'll decline of course, but there's absolutely nothing to suggest that the decline has already started. Chronological age is also only a proxy for what actually matters, which is biological aging. There's obviously a high degree of correlation between the two, but that's not to say all 31 year olds should be treated the same. Hopefully the coaching and training staff will have a decent idea of where Grandal might end up on that spectrum, and that can help inform their decision.

Also in regards to Cain who has been discussed in some earlier posts, I'm not overly concerned either. Will he repeat 2018? Probably not. But in 2019 he actually hit the ball harder (Both in terms of EV and hard hit %) than in 2018 and still played excellent defense. Yet that resulted in a .357 BABIP last year, and a .301 BABIP this year; neither of which is likely to be representative of who he is. K% and BB% were a bit worse, but were in line with his career numbers. It's fair to expect some decline over the coming seasons, but I also don't think that 2019 is his true level or the level we can expect the decline to continue from.


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Offline  Re: Grandal declines mutual option
#25

Posted: November 01, 2019, 4:34 PM Post
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dlk9s said:
He's going to go with whichever team gives him the most money. So will Cole. So will the other top free agents.

And there's a big assumption that we're going to be a "contender" next season.


Just like these crap teams are crap until they prove they are not, the Brewers are contenders until they prove they are not. The Brewers have a ton of talent coming back, even if they lose Moose and Grandal. It's obviously a long way from opening day, but this team is coming off back-to-back playoff appearances. I don't think there is any reason to believe that they are suddenly going to be bad.


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Offline  Re: Grandal declines mutual option
#26

Posted: November 01, 2019, 5:00 PM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
dlk9s said:
He's going to go with whichever team gives him the most money. So will Cole. So will the other top free agents.

And there's a big assumption that we're going to be a "contender" next season.


Just like these crap teams are crap until they prove they are not, the Brewers are contenders until they prove they are not. The Brewers have a ton of talent coming back, even if they lose Moose and Grandal. It's obviously a long way from opening day, but this team is coming off back-to-back playoff appearances. I don't think there is any reason to believe that they are suddenly going to be bad.


Just to add to that, it isn't like everything went right for them this season. They didn't have a bunch of guys with career years or exceptional luck on the injury front. If anything it's the other way around. I think most players see the Brewers as legitimate contenders which is what matters when it comes to free agents looking for a place to compete for a title.

There needs to be a King Thames version of the bible.


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Offline  Re: Grandal declines mutual option
#27

Posted: November 01, 2019, 5:25 PM Post
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If we are going to rely on Shaw at 3B, and lose Moose, that is a MAJOR downgrade. If we lose Grandal, and rely on Pina as our everyday C, that is a MAJOR downgrade.

They would have to add some MAJOR pitching to have any shot of contending imo.

I know, I know, there is lots of time, and lots of moves to be made, blah blah blah.

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: Grandal declines mutual option
#28

Posted: November 01, 2019, 5:28 PM Post
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Shaw to Moose is only a downgrade if he hits like last season. If he goes back to doing what he did in years prior with us, it’s not really a downgrade at all.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: Grandal declines mutual option
#29

Posted: November 01, 2019, 5:31 PM Post
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Brew4U said:
Shaw to Moose is only a downgrade if he hits like last season. If he goes back to doing what he did in years prior with us, it’s not really a downgrade at all.


Are you willing to take that gamble, and possibly be left with the blackest of black holes at an offensive position that needs to be productive?

If Shaw tanks again, and that is what I am expecting, and you add him to Pina and Arcia, we better be upgrading the starting pitching or it could be a long LONG season.

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: Grandal declines mutual option
#30

Posted: November 01, 2019, 6:25 PM Post
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turborickey said:
Brew4U said:
Shaw to Moose is only a downgrade if he hits like last season. If he goes back to doing what he did in years prior with us, it’s not really a downgrade at all.


Are you willing to take that gamble, and possibly be left with the blackest of black holes at an offensive position that needs to be productive?

If Shaw tanks again, and that is what I am expecting, and you add him to Pina and Arcia, we better be upgrading the starting pitching or it could be a long LONG season.


Yeah, I’m willing. For me, Moose is very overrated by Brewer fans. I’ll take Shaw and let Stearns work his magic to get some depth at that position in case it blows up.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: Grandal declines mutual option
#31

Posted: November 01, 2019, 6:57 PM Post
Posts: 791
Location: Washburn, WI
Brew4U said:
turborickey said:
Brew4U said:
Shaw to Moose is only a downgrade if he hits like last season. If he goes back to doing what he did in years prior with us, it’s not really a downgrade at all.


Are you willing to take that gamble, and possibly be left with the blackest of black holes at an offensive position that needs to be productive?

If Shaw tanks again, and that is what I am expecting, and you add him to Pina and Arcia, we better be upgrading the starting pitching or it could be a long LONG season.


Yeah, I’m willing. For me, Moose is very overrated by Brewer fans. I’ll take Shaw and let Stearns work his magic to get some depth at that position in case it blows up.


Moose is definitely a good player and I’ll agree to a point that he may be a little overrated. But who are you going to bring in to play third without it becoming a black hole? Rendon (way to expensive), Donaldson (again, probably pushing $20 million or so), Todd Frazier (very inconsistent during his career and big downgrade), or someone like Asdrubal Cabrera as an everyday third baseman (downgrade from Moose). You can count on Moose to hit .250, strikeout around 20% of the time which is fine, and hit 30 homers for you.

I guess one option to consider would be to keep Shaw, but bring in someone like Gregorius, hoping that Shaw bounces back while getting a big upgrade at SS. But is the risk worth it? If Moose is let go and Shaw is given the opportunity to be the everyday 3B again, Grandal would NEED to be back or having a possible bottom of the order of a struggling Shaw, Pina, Arcia, Pitcher could be an absolute nightmare.


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Offline  Re: Grandal declines mutual option
#32

Posted: November 01, 2019, 6:57 PM Post
Posts: 1779
Location: Madison, WI
I have to admit, if I was a free agent I wouldn't see all that much difference between the Brewers and the Reds. Absolutely, the Brewers have been by far the better team recently, and I do have confidence in Stearns and Counsell. But they are both small market teams, and while the Reds weren't good last year they did make moves in an obvious effort to win (Gray, Puig, Wood, Bauer). I'd say chances are 80+% that the Brewers are the better team next year. In that years following that...not so sure about that. Have to admit that if I'm picking between Milwaukee and Cincinnati, I'd go with whatever team offered me the most money.


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Offline  Re: Grandal declines mutual option
#33

Posted: November 01, 2019, 7:13 PM Post
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turborickey said:
If we are going to rely on Shaw at 3B, and lose Moose, that is a MAJOR downgrade. If we lose Grandal, and rely on Pina as our everyday C, that is a MAJOR downgrade.

They would have to add some MAJOR pitching to have any shot of contending imo.

I know, I know, there is lots of time, and lots of moves to be made, blah blah blah.


I know there will likely be posts of frustration about lack of free agent signings by the Brewers at some point but kudos for expressing yours before free agents are even allowed to sign.

This offseason is shaping up to be a fun one.


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Offline  Re: Grandal declines mutual option
#34

Posted: November 01, 2019, 8:00 PM Post
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True Blue Brew Crew said:
turborickey said:
If we are going to rely on Shaw at 3B, and lose Moose, that is a MAJOR downgrade. If we lose Grandal, and rely on Pina as our everyday C, that is a MAJOR downgrade.

They would have to add some MAJOR pitching to have any shot of contending imo.

I know, I know, there is lots of time, and lots of moves to be made, blah blah blah.


I know there will likely be posts of frustration about lack of free agent signings by the Brewers at some point but kudos for expressing yours before free agents are even allowed to sign.

This offseason is shaping up to be a fun one.


I think you read what I was saying completely wrong...

[ho hum]

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: Grandal declines mutual option
#35

Posted: November 02, 2019, 2:47 PM Post
Posts: 4441
turborickey said:
Brew4U said:
Shaw to Moose is only a downgrade if he hits like last season. If he goes back to doing what he did in years prior with us, it’s not really a downgrade at all.


Are you willing to take that gamble, and possibly be left with the blackest of black holes at an offensive position that needs to be productive?

If Shaw tanks again, and that is what I am expecting, and you add him to Pina and Arcia, we better be upgrading the starting pitching or it could be a long LONG season.


Why are you expecting it? Not trying to be a wienie about it given the season he had. I'm just interesting in your reasoning behind that expectation. Is it because it hurts less to expect nothing, are you hoping to be pleasantly surprised, is there something in his hitting profile you don't like or some other reason altogether?

There needs to be a King Thames version of the bible.


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Offline  Re: Grandal declines mutual option
#36

Posted: November 02, 2019, 3:14 PM Post
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Thurston Fluff said:
Why are you expecting it? Not trying to be a wienie about it given the season he had. I'm just interesting in your reasoning behind that expectation. Is it because it hurts less to expect nothing, are you hoping to be pleasantly surprised, is there something in his hitting profile you don't like or some other reason altogether?


Wouldn't be the first time in the last decade that an older, not highly regarded 3rd baseman for the Brewers has a couple good years and completely falls apart.

Cards' fans wear jorts.


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Offline  Re: Grandal declines mutual option
#37

Posted: November 02, 2019, 3:59 PM Post
Posts: 19183
Shaw is a bit of an unusual case because he did have two really solid seasons back to back. 2 seasons isn't super sustained but it isn't a blip on the radar either.

That said, there were warning signs based on his history even during that time that his production probably wasnt sustainable.

While it would be nearly impossible for his production to be as bad again as it was in 2019, I also doubt that we ever again see the 4 WAR player from 2017 and 2018 again.

A Casey McGehee career trajectory going forward for him seems likeliest to me. If he can be an average starting 3rd baseman in 2020, that would be about the best I'd hope for.


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Offline  Re: Grandal declines mutual option
#38

Posted: November 02, 2019, 9:30 PM Post
Posts: 1844
If they bring back neither Moose nor Grandal(I want both and some pitching), and I'm expecting they won't...they will be garbage again unfortunately. You just can't replace that kind of production offensively without pulling off some sort of major trade(and in the process hurting other parts of the team).They need upgrades lots of places(starting pitching, SS for sure), and fixing those spots, and letting Moose and Grandal walk, still isn't going to get you where you want to go.


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Offline  Re: Grandal declines mutual option
#39

Posted: November 02, 2019, 9:34 PM Post
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Brewcrewin07 said:
If they bring back neither Moose nor Grandal(I want both and some pitching), and I'm expecting they won't...they will be garbage again unfortunately. You just can't replace that kind of production offensively without pulling off some sort of major trade(and in the process hurting other parts of the team).They need upgrades lots of places(starting pitching, SS for sure), and fixing those spots, and letting Moose and Grandal walk, still isn't going to get you where you want to go.


Sure ... garbage ... just like they were in 2018 without Grandal, and without Moose for most of the year.


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Offline  Re: Grandal declines mutual option
#40

Posted: November 02, 2019, 9:44 PM Post
Posts: 4645
adambr2 said:
Shaw is a bit of an unusual case because he did have two really solid seasons back to back. 2 seasons isn't super sustained but it isn't a blip on the radar either.

That said, there were warning signs based on his history even during that time that his production probably wasnt sustainable.

While it would be nearly impossible for his production to be as bad again as it was in 2019, I also doubt that we ever again see the 4 WAR player from 2017 and 2018 again.

A Casey McGehee career trajectory going forward for him seems likeliest to me. If he can be an average starting 3rd baseman in 2020, that would be about the best I'd hope for.


If the Crew can get some decent return, they should take the deal. If he is a left-handed McGehee, the Crew can't afford to wait for a rebound.


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