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Hader Super Two, eligible for arby this year

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Offline  Hader Super Two, eligible for arby this year
#1

Posted: November 05, 2019, 9:13 AM Post
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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/brewers-josh-hader-super-two-cutoff-arbitration.html

Super Two cutoff point is the lowest ever, and Josh Hader will be eligible for arby MLBTraderumors expects he'll get substantially more than the $3.65M Knebel received when he was Super Two.


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Offline  Re: Hader Super Two, eligible for arby this year
#2

Posted: November 05, 2019, 9:25 AM Post
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monty57 said:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/brewers-josh-hader-super-two-cutoff-arbitration.html

Super Two cutoff point is the lowest ever, and Josh Hader will be eligible for arby MLBTraderumors expects he'll get substantially more than the $3.65M Knebel received when he was Super Two.


Not good news for a team that's trying to make room for multiple mid to upper level FA. Probably moves up by a year the timeline for dealing him. I wouldn't expect it this offseason but next year it becomes a real possibility.


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Offline  Re: Hader Super Two, eligible for arby this year
#3

Posted: November 05, 2019, 9:26 AM Post
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Location: Washburn, WI
I’m thinking his salary will be in the neighborhood of $6 million. The highest salary ever for a first time arby eligible relief pitcher was Jonathan Papelbon in 2009 for $6.25 million. Hader will have a real shot at breaking that record.


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Offline  Re: Hader Super Two, eligible for arby this year
#4

Posted: November 05, 2019, 9:31 AM Post
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RollieTime said:
I’m thinking his salary will be in the neighborhood of $6 million. The highest salary ever for a first time arby eligible relief pitcher was Jonathan Papelbon in 2009 for $6.25 million. Hader will have a real shot at breaking that record.


He doesn't have the saves so quite unlikely, last I knew the arbitration process still heavily favors the saves stat.


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Offline  Re: Hader Super Two, eligible for arby this year
#5

Posted: November 05, 2019, 9:55 AM Post
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Location: New Berlin, WI
The best comp I can find is Kenley Jansen, but it's an old comp. He got $4.3 million as a super 2 after the 2013 season. Dodgers filed at 3.5 and Jansen filed at 5. Hader probably will get in the $4.5-5 million range based on Jansen.


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Offline  Re: Hader Super Two, eligible for arby this year
#6

Posted: November 05, 2019, 10:01 AM Post
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Dumb question: Does this effect the number of ARB years the Brewers control him for or just that he will get paid more starting in 2020?

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Offline  Re: Hader Super Two, eligible for arby this year
#7

Posted: November 05, 2019, 10:15 AM Post
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A Swing and A Drive said:
Dumb question: Does this effect the number of ARB years the Brewers control him for or just that he will get paid more starting in 2020?


He'll get 4 years of arb instead of 3. We still control Hader for 4 more years.


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Offline  Re: Hader Super Two, eligible for arby this year
#8

Posted: November 05, 2019, 10:27 AM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
A Swing and A Drive said:
Dumb question: Does this effect the number of ARB years the Brewers control him for or just that he will get paid more starting in 2020?


He'll get 4 years of arb instead of 3. We still control Hader for 4 more years.


If his production doesn't slip, his arby figures will balloon rapidly after this year.


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Offline  Re: Hader Super Two, eligible for arby this year
#9

Posted: November 05, 2019, 10:48 AM Post
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This is brutal to Milw and payroll. Youre looking at what was probably 1mil this year to 6mil now. Instead of 6mil in '21 that number will be closer to 11mil. 17.5 instead of 10, 22 instead 16.
Of course that's relying he continues being RP of the year. So yes the reality is he'll be traded a year sooner. Probably 2years now left with him as a Brewer.

Or, the Brewers trade him now for something massive and let that problem manifest for another team.


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Offline  Re: Hader Super Two, eligible for arby this year
#10

Posted: November 05, 2019, 10:49 AM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
A Swing and A Drive said:
Dumb question: Does this effect the number of ARB years the Brewers control him for or just that he will get paid more starting in 2020?


He'll get 4 years of arb instead of 3. We still control Hader for 4 more years.


Thanks. That's what I thought. 4 arb years will be expensive but maybe it would motivate the Brewers to work out an extension since they will have to pay him quite a bit in his last two years of arby anyways.

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Offline  Re: Hader Super Two, eligible for arby this year
#11

Posted: November 05, 2019, 11:01 AM Post
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A Swing and A Drive said:
KeithStone53151 said:
A Swing and A Drive said:
Dumb question: Does this effect the number of ARB years the Brewers control him for or just that he will get paid more starting in 2020?


He'll get 4 years of arb instead of 3. We still control Hader for 4 more years.


Thanks. That's what I thought. 4 arb years will be expensive but maybe it would motivate the Brewers to work out an extension since they will have to pay him quite a bit in his last two years of arby anyways.


I don't think dropping $50mil+ on Hader is really a move a small market should be doing. Take him year by year...if he is incredibly productive for the next 4 years just be friggen pumped that happened. Relief pitchers are much to fickle for us to hand them mega contracts.


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Offline  Re: Hader Super Two, eligible for arby this year
#12

Posted: November 05, 2019, 11:05 AM Post
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I don't think is nearly as doomsday as some are acting like it is. It sucks, but we're probably talking about coming up with $5 million to pay him. They'll find it and I don't think it has serious ripple effects.


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Offline  Re: Hader Super Two, eligible for arby this year
#13

Posted: November 05, 2019, 11:10 AM Post
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OldSchoolSnapper said:
I don't think is nearly as doomsday as some are acting like it is. It sucks, but we're probably talking about coming up with $5 million to pay him. They'll find it and I don't think it has serious ripple effects.


I agree its not doomsday or problematic for 2020.
But a 4th yr at arbitration means salary possibly in the neighborhood $18 to $25M for 2023. That is a large chunk & it could make things difficult at that point...


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Offline  Re: Hader Super Two, eligible for arby this year
#14

Posted: November 05, 2019, 11:23 AM Post
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brewcrewdue80 said:
This is brutal to Milw and payroll. Youre looking at what was probably 1mil this year to 6mil now. Instead of 6mil in '21 that number will be closer to 11mil. 17.5 instead of 10, 22 instead 16.
Of course that's relying he continues being RP of the year. So yes the reality is he'll be traded a year sooner. Probably 2years now left with him as a Brewer.

Or, the Brewers trade him now for something massive and let that problem manifest for another team.


That does look like the situation now...

The presence of QTC, Angel Perdomo, and Clayton Andrews does mitigate the risk, and Brent Suter can also fill the multi-inning role and be very reliable in his own way - not the eye-popping K numbers.


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Offline  Re: Hader Super Two, eligible for arby this year
#15

Posted: November 05, 2019, 11:24 AM Post
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MadThinker88 said:
OldSchoolSnapper said:
I don't think is nearly as doomsday as some are acting like it is. It sucks, but we're probably talking about coming up with $5 million to pay him. They'll find it and I don't think it has serious ripple effects.


I agree its not doomsday or problematic for 2020.
But a 4th yr at arbitration means salary possibly in the neighborhood $18 to $25M for 2023. That is a large chunk & it could make things difficult at that point...


$6 mil a year for back to back NL reliever of the year. I will take it. Granted next years results aren’t a sure thing. Things could be much worse than this. Agree with Sir Mr Plush about not signing him long term. Rather pay the premiums per year without being bogged down.


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Offline  Re: Hader Super Two, eligible for arby this year
#16

Posted: November 05, 2019, 11:26 AM Post
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All the more reason to sell high on him now.

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Offline  Re: Hader Super Two, eligible for arby this year
#17

Posted: November 05, 2019, 11:45 AM Post
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3and2Fastball said:
All the more reason to sell high on him now.


July was the time...now is the next best time. We need a haul of youngsters.


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Offline  Re: Hader Super Two, eligible for arby this year
#18

Posted: November 05, 2019, 12:01 PM Post
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get him in a deal to buy out those arb years

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Offline  Re: Hader Super Two, eligible for arby this year
#19

Posted: November 05, 2019, 12:23 PM Post
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I'm ok with trading him but I think people expecting a haul of youngsters in return would be disappointed by what happens. The incremental value and consistency is just not there with RP to the point that somebody would give up a ton for one. Maybe I'm wrong. But it's not the same as trading off Gavin Lutz or something.

I'd be happy with one really + prospect or a couple promising guys. Or someone that can play on the MLB team right now.


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Offline  Re: Hader Super Two, eligible for arby this year
#20

Posted: November 05, 2019, 12:24 PM Post
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torts said:
get him in a deal to buy out those arb years


I'm not sure I even want that though. Tying up that kind of money in such a volatile position is a real big risk for MKE. You could have late-stage Gagne on your hands in 3 years. And that deal would have to be a monster for him to walk away from arb/a year of FA. He holds all the cards now. Doing that made more sense for him before he got Super Two.


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