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Hader Super Two, eligible for arby this year

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Offline  Re: Hader Super Two, eligible for arby this year
#21

Posted: November 05, 2019, 2:51 PM Post
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Posts: 495
Location: Chicago
Oxy said:
3and2Fastball said:
All the more reason to sell high on him now.


July was the time...now is the next best time. We need a haul of youngsters.


Since 2018 the Brewers have won more games (185) than all but two other NL teams (LAD 198 and ATL 187). Being a Brewers fan, I've never really seen one before but based on their record since '18 this has all the looks of a team being in the midst of what is typically referred to as a 'window for contending'. It makes zero sense to suggest trading your best overall pitcher during a 'window for contending' especially with multiple years of team control remaining.

Secondly, talent costs money. Teams with more limited payrolls face some tough choices as their roster is laden with talented players and only so much pay to go around. That is why they moved on from Anderson and Thames, two quality major league players. From a team budgetary perspective its too bad Hader struck it rich a season early, but it cannot comes a surprise to the team brass that they will have to pay him a load of cash for his services going forward.


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Offline  Re: Hader Super Two, eligible for arby this year
#22

Posted: November 05, 2019, 3:17 PM Post
Posts: 106
Jopal78! said:
talent costs money


Does it? It's true that you can spend money to get talent. But you can also get talent without spending a lot of money. A small market team needs to build around that. One of the most exciting features of the org these past couple of years is that they seem to have gotten better at it.


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Offline  Re: Hader Super Two, eligible for arby this year
#23

Posted: November 05, 2019, 4:39 PM Post
Posts: 500
OldSchoolSnapper said:
I'm ok with trading him but I think people expecting a haul of youngsters in return would be disappointed by what happens. The incremental value and consistency is just not there with RP to the point that somebody would give up a ton for one. Maybe I'm wrong. But it's not the same as trading off Gavin Lutz or something.

I'd be happy with one really + prospect or a couple promising guys. Or someone that can play on the MLB team right now.


The Cubs gave up one of the top prospects in baseball to get less than a year of Chapman. They also gave up 3 other below average players in the deal. Imo Hader could bring something like that to the Crew, depending on how desperate the receiving team is for him.


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Offline  Re: Hader Super Two, eligible for arby this year
#24

Posted: November 05, 2019, 5:22 PM Post
Posts: 283
wntrtxn21 said:
OldSchoolSnapper said:
I'm ok with trading him but I think people expecting a haul of youngsters in return would be disappointed by what happens. The incremental value and consistency is just not there with RP to the point that somebody would give up a ton for one. Maybe I'm wrong. But it's not the same as trading off Gavin Lutz or something.

I'd be happy with one really + prospect or a couple promising guys. Or someone that can play on the MLB team right now.


The Cubs gave up one of the top prospects in baseball to get less than a year of Chapman. They also gave up 3 other below average players in the deal. Imo Hader could bring something like that to the Crew, depending on how desperate the receiving team is for him.

Every trade since then for RPs has resulted in far lesser returns and it was an admitted overpay by Theo at the time but they bit the bullet and did it because they needed the elite relief option to win a WS. Torres also has hit his like 99th percentile outcome, he was in the high teens/20s of top prospects in baseball at the time and was hitting .250 with only 9 HRs in A ball. He wasn’t killing it down there.

There’s no doubt we’d get a great return for Hader but I don’t think we can expect a better outcome than what Torres has become for him or really all that much larger of a return. Top ~20 prospect in baseball, top 100 prospect and a major league pitcher was the return. Torres, McKinney and Warren. Maybe we get another prospect who isn’t top 75 or so or another major league bullpen piece that is a project or something. But that seems like the rough framework when you factor in Hader’s salary moving forward, relief pitcher volatility, etc.


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Offline  Re: Hader Super Two, eligible for arby this year
#25

Posted: November 05, 2019, 5:38 PM Post
Posts: 4442
wntrtxn21 said:
OldSchoolSnapper said:
I'm ok with trading him but I think people expecting a haul of youngsters in return would be disappointed by what happens. The incremental value and consistency is just not there with RP to the point that somebody would give up a ton for one. Maybe I'm wrong. But it's not the same as trading off Gavin Lutz or something.

I'd be happy with one really + prospect or a couple promising guys. Or someone that can play on the MLB team right now.


The Cubs gave up one of the top prospects in baseball to get less than a year of Chapman. They also gave up 3 other below average players in the deal. Imo Hader could bring something like that to the Crew, depending on how desperate the receiving team is for him.



To counter that though, Ken Giles brought Vince Velasquez and 3 nobodys. But a Vince Velasquez type of headliner in a Hader deal would be the starting point.
6mil~ish isn't the moving force this year. I'd sit tight with him this year and go from there, but what happens is his FG value is about 20mil as a RP production 4yrs control but with cost you kinda go from 60mil surplus value to below 50 next season. And the value now is RP of the year value. A poor season or injury may drop that significantly. So something in the lines of a Top 20 prospect now, down to a top 50 prospect with remaining the same value. It worsens and you're in that top 75-125 discussion. Now, that's on an offseason value. Trade Deadline value is fluctional, but now we're talking, "We're not in the Playoff chase," something you're expecting to be involved in for another 2years or more?


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Offline  Re: Hader Super Two, eligible for arby this year
#26

Posted: November 06, 2019, 8:33 AM Post
Posts: 12156
Ken Giles was traded with 5 years of control and two were going to cost pennies. Hader gives you 4 years of control and is going to be expensive from day one. The Super-Two announcement knocks an incredible amount of surplus value off. Probably in the neighborhood of $12mil+ that the fourth year will cost. Of course that is if he is even elite at that point. Other teams aren't dumb either. They watched Hader this year and they know how fickle a relief pitcher is.

Generally speaking Hader is not worth the mega prospects people are wishing for. Could some team desperately decide they need an elite reliever, maybe, but I would not hope too hard for that. The only thing going for the Brewers is the fact there is essentially no way to get a Hader without trading for one. I would guess most offers for Hader would be real underwhelming to the masses. You just need one team to get desperate though.


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Offline  Re: Hader Super Two, eligible for arby this year
#27

Posted: November 06, 2019, 8:41 AM Post
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MrTPlush said:
Ken Giles was traded with 5 years of control and two were going to cost pennies. Hader gives you 4 years of control and is going to be expensive from day one. The Super-Two announcement knocks an incredible amount of surplus value off. Probably in the neighborhood of $12mil+ that the fourth year will cost. Of course that is if he is even elite at that point. Other teams aren't dumb either. They watched Hader this year and they know how fickle a relief pitcher is.

Generally speaking Hader is not worth the mega prospects people are wishing for. Could some team desperately decide they need an elite reliever, maybe, but I would not hope too hard for that. The only thing going for the Brewers is the fact there is essentially no way to get a Hader without trading for one. I would guess most offers for Hader would be real underwhelming to the masses. You just need one team to get desperate though.


Yep. That's why I'm inclined to not even dangle him. If a team comes to you with a strong package, you listen. But I'm not taking any offer that is constituted with a bunch of 19-year-old A ballers very seriously. His Super 2 status is a blow to his value, but the Brewers still hold all the cards, and by no means do they have to deal him.


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Offline  Re: Hader Super Two, eligible for arby this year
#28

Posted: November 06, 2019, 8:43 AM Post
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That's where I'm at with Hader. Listen if somebody calls, but that's it.


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