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2020 Player Projections

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Offline  Re: 2020 Player Projections
#21

Posted: November 07, 2019, 8:41 AM Post
Posts: 12156
DHonks said:
JosephC said:
That's a good number, but I'm hoping and expecting more from him. I'd also guess there are being very generous crediting him with a -3.6 Def because his defense is far worse than that. Frankly, I think Hiura's defense is so bad that he's really nothing but an above-average second baseman if he OPS's .825.


Well, at least from the eye-test he was about similar with Scooter and still better than Weeks. Amazing how bad defensively our 2b have been for the last 15 years. Anything hit to Scooter or Rickie's backhand was a good bet for a runner to reach first base.


Hiura is most certainly worse than both Weeks and Gennett….it is not particularly close either. Hiura pretty much struggles with everything on defense and has no arm or range. He struggles to field a ball right next to him and can't get to anything away from him. Weeks could turn DPs confidently, had some range, and had a strong arm. Hiura had 16 errors in a half season. If he played every game he would have amassed 30+ errors. That is really bad before even considering how many plays he can't even attempt to make because of a lack of range/arm.

Hiura is probably closer to the worst 2B defender in history than he is to having the defense of Weeks/Gennett...and that is really sad because neither of those guys were very good defensively.

On a different note Bref has projections that include a reliability percentage. Yelich to hit .961 OPS (86%). Shaw to hit .769 OPS (82%). Projections are just silly in such an insanely flukey sport. Nothing ever seems to make sense.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Player Projections
#22

Posted: November 07, 2019, 9:57 AM Post
Posts: 5149
Location: New Berlin, WI
Hiura is still young and can definitely improve at 2b. What we saw last year isn't what we'll get for the next 5-6 years defensively. That said...he definitely has some work to do and I'm sure he knows that. I hope that's a point of emphasis for him this offseason.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Player Projections
#23

Posted: November 07, 2019, 10:52 AM Post
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liveforoctober said:
Braun as a -13.2 defensively is hard to see. I wonder what that number becomes with a move to 1B?


With the Brewers declining Thames' option, that was the first thing I thought when I saw the -13.2. With Grisham and Gamel on the roster and no viable 1B alternatives, it makes sense to move Braun to 1B for his last season as a Brewer. If they're going to do that, I hope they've already told him and he's already practicing, and I hope that they just let him play first and don't bounce him around.

Yelich, Cain, Grisham/Gamel in the OF with Braun at 1B leaves one less hole to fill via free agency or trade this offseason and frees up some cash to upgrade elsewhere. I don't look forward to the right side of the infield defense of Huira and Braun, but it might be out best alternative. Heck, if he puts all of his offseason into practicing first base, maybe he'll only be really bad and not historically awful.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

~Bill Walsh


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Offline  Re: 2020 Player Projections
#24

Posted: November 07, 2019, 11:33 AM Post
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MrTPlush said:
DHonks said:
JosephC said:
That's a good number, but I'm hoping and expecting more from him. I'd also guess there are being very generous crediting him with a -3.6 Def because his defense is far worse than that. Frankly, I think Hiura's defense is so bad that he's really nothing but an above-average second baseman if he OPS's .825.


Well, at least from the eye-test he was about similar with Scooter and still better than Weeks. Amazing how bad defensively our 2b have been for the last 15 years. Anything hit to Scooter or Rickie's backhand was a good bet for a runner to reach first base.


Hiura is most certainly worse than both Weeks and Gennett….it is not particularly close either.


Weeks was -11.6 defensive WAR in 2005 in 96 games. So...worse than Hiura.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: 2020 Player Projections
#25

Posted: November 07, 2019, 4:53 PM Post
Posts: 8059
MrTPlush said:
DHonks said:
JosephC said:
That's a good number, but I'm hoping and expecting more from him. I'd also guess there are being very generous crediting him with a -3.6 Def because his defense is far worse than that. Frankly, I think Hiura's defense is so bad that he's really nothing but an above-average second baseman if he OPS's .825.


Well, at least from the eye-test he was about similar with Scooter and still better than Weeks. Amazing how bad defensively our 2b have been for the last 15 years. Anything hit to Scooter or Rickie's backhand was a good bet for a runner to reach first base.


Hiura is most certainly worse than both Weeks and Gennett….it is not particularly close either. Hiura pretty much struggles with everything on defense and has no arm or range. He struggles to field a ball right next to him and can't get to anything away from him. Weeks could turn DPs confidently, had some range, and had a strong arm. Hiura had 16 errors in a half season. If he played every game he would have amassed 30+ errors. That is really bad before even considering how many plays he can't even attempt to make because of a lack of range/arm.

Hiura is probably closer to the worst 2B defender in history than he is to having the defense of Weeks/Gennett...and that is really sad because neither of those guys were very good defensively.

On a different note Bref has projections that include a reliability percentage. Yelich to hit .961 OPS (86%). Shaw to hit .769 OPS (82%). Projections are just silly in such an insanely flukey sport. Nothing ever seems to make sense.


Weeks couldn’t field, had little throwing accuracy, and missed countless throws at first when covering bunts. I always hoped he would get better since he had decent arm strength, but his poor mechanics and footwork killed those hopes. Hiura has a stronger arm than advertised, but needs to work on accuracy. I can’t recall him with many fielding mistakes...weren’t they mostly throwing?


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Offline  Re: 2020 Player Projections
#26

Posted: November 07, 2019, 7:46 PM Post
Posts: 12156
homer said:
Weeks was -11.6 defensive WAR in 2005 in 96 games. So...worse than Hiura.


Come on man, we both know he was talking about Weeks in general, not his single worst season. Weeks probably averaged about -3 to -5 on Fangraphs. He even ended up with a positive WAR multiple times.

Not saying Hiura can’t improve, but generally comparing him to Weeks he was notably worse last year.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Player Projections
#27

Posted: November 07, 2019, 7:51 PM Post
Posts: 12156
DHonks said:
Weeks couldn’t field, had little throwing accuracy, and missed countless throws at first when covering bunts. I always hoped he would get better since he had decent arm strength, but his poor mechanics and footwork killed those hopes. Hiura has a stronger arm than advertised, but needs to work on accuracy. I can’t recall him with many fielding mistakes...weren’t they mostly throwing?


A large majority of his errors were throwing, but there definitely was a good chunk that were fielding too. He really needs to cut the errors down or that is one rough 20+ error defender.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Player Projections
#28

Posted: November 07, 2019, 8:20 PM Post
Posts: 1779
Location: Madison, WI
I thought Hiura's footwork was poor and his judgement on those "in-between hops" was just awful. There were a couple times that he looked so unsure whether to come in or back up that I thought he was going to fall over.

Weeks was a rather bad second baseman but IMO he was way ahead of where Hiura is now. I thought Weeks actually did a pretty good job when having to play balls to his left, in the hole between first and second. But any moderately difficult play to his right, you could forget about getting an out on that play.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Player Projections
#29

Posted: November 07, 2019, 8:23 PM Post
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There are 44 second basemen with at least 5,000 innings over the last 20 years.

Scooter ranks 34th in DRS (-14) & 36th in UZR (-14.6).

Weeks ranks 44th in DRS (-112!!) with Daniel Murphy (-83) & Dan Uggla (-69) next worse & also last in UZR (-45.8).

Rickie has been thee worst 2B of the last 20 years, so I hope that is a bar Keston can clear.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Player Projections
#30

Posted: November 07, 2019, 10:49 PM Post
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MrTPlush said:
homer said:
Weeks was -11.6 defensive WAR in 2005 in 96 games. So...worse than Hiura.


Come on man, we both know he was talking about Weeks in general, not his single worst season. Weeks probably averaged about -3 to -5 on Fangraphs. He even ended up with a positive WAR multiple times.

Not saying Hiura can’t improve, but generally comparing him to Weeks he was notably worse last year.


His single worst season also happened to be his first season....same as Hiura last year. So it was as apples to apples as can be. Weeks was worse his first year than Hiura was. I'm not sure how anyone can look at Weeks in his 5th year and use that to compare to Hiura after one year.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: 2020 Player Projections
#31

Posted: November 07, 2019, 11:51 PM Post
Posts: 8059
sveumrules said:
There are 44 second basemen with at least 5,000 innings over the last 20 years.

Scooter ranks 34th in DRS (-14) & 36th in UZR (-14.6).

Weeks ranks 44th in DRS (-112!!) with Daniel Murphy (-83) & Dan Uggla (-69) next worse & also last in UZR (-45.8).

Rickie has been thee worst 2B of the last 20 years, so I hope that is a bar Keston can clear.


Crazy to think of how bad our defense was....Weeks at 2b, Fielder at 1b. Remember all those times we justified Fielder's D by saying "he's surprisingly nimble for a guy his size!?" At least he played 1b. I had a running bet with a friend that I lost....I bet him that one time Fielder would whiff on a routine throw from an infielder, having it bounce off his face.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Player Projections
#32

Posted: November 08, 2019, 9:08 AM Post
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DHonks said:
sveumrules said:
There are 44 second basemen with at least 5,000 innings over the last 20 years.

Scooter ranks 34th in DRS (-14) & 36th in UZR (-14.6).

Weeks ranks 44th in DRS (-112!!) with Daniel Murphy (-83) & Dan Uggla (-69) next worse & also last in UZR (-45.8).

Rickie has been thee worst 2B of the last 20 years, so I hope that is a bar Keston can clear.


Crazy to think of how bad our defense was....Weeks at 2b, Fielder at 1b. Remember all those times we justified Fielder's D by saying "he's surprisingly nimble for a guy his size!?" At least he played 1b. I had a running bet with a friend that I lost....I bet him that one time Fielder would whiff on a routine throw from an infielder, having it bounce off his face.


Then throw Braun in there at 3rd....might have been the worst third baseman in the history of baseball. Jack Z really didn't give a lick about defense, did he [smile]

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: 2020 Player Projections
#33

Posted: November 08, 2019, 9:29 AM Post
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That 2011 team defense....ooof. McGehee/Yuni B/Weeks/Fielder then Braun/Morgan/Hart

I am not sure where that ranks in overall team defense historically, but it has got to be pretty low.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Player Projections
#34

Posted: November 08, 2019, 10:59 AM Post
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homer said:
DHonks said:
sveumrules said:
There are 44 second basemen with at least 5,000 innings over the last 20 years.

Scooter ranks 34th in DRS (-14) & 36th in UZR (-14.6).

Weeks ranks 44th in DRS (-112!!) with Daniel Murphy (-83) & Dan Uggla (-69) next worse & also last in UZR (-45.8).

Rickie has been thee worst 2B of the last 20 years, so I hope that is a bar Keston can clear.


Crazy to think of how bad our defense was....Weeks at 2b, Fielder at 1b. Remember all those times we justified Fielder's D by saying "he's surprisingly nimble for a guy his size!?" At least he played 1b. I had a running bet with a friend that I lost....I bet him that one time Fielder would whiff on a routine throw from an infielder, having it bounce off his face.


Then throw Braun in there at 3rd....might have been the worst third baseman in the history of baseball. Jack Z really didn't give a lick about defense, did he [smile]


In 2007 we had Braun (-32/-28.5), Weeks (-10/-2.4) & Fielder (-15/-8.1) combine for -57 DRS & -39 UZR, or around 4-6 wins losses. Pitchers probably prayed every ball was hit to Hardy (+9 DRS/+12.8 UZR).

JJ ranks favorably by the advanced metrics coming in at 7th in DRS (+88) & 2nd in UZR (+94.5) since they've been tracked, 2002/2003.


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