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2020 Player Projections

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Offline  Re: 2020 Player Projections
#41

Posted: January 14, 2020, 12:06 PM Post
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sveumrules said:
2019 Position Player WAR: 24.2
2020 ZIPS projected WAR: 21.4

2019 Starting Pitcher WAR: 8.7
2020 ZIPS projected WAR: 10.4

2019 Relief Pitcher WAR: 4.1
2020 ZIPS projected WAR: 6.3

It should also be noted I'm pretty sure that the Brewers have beat their ZIPS projected win total each of the last four seasons.

The Reds ZiPS projections came out today.

By comparison the Reds 2020 projections broke down as follows...

Position Player ZiPS projected WAR: 17.8
Starting Pitcher ZiPS projected WAR: 14.2
Bullpen ZiPS projected WAR: 3.6

So right now that total of 35.6 projected WAR ranks 2.5 wins behind the Brewers 2020 projection.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Player Projections
#42

Posted: January 14, 2020, 12:45 PM Post
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Eye Black said:
sveumrules said:
2019 Position Player WAR: 24.2
2020 ZIPS projected WAR: 21.4

2019 Starting Pitcher WAR: 8.7
2020 ZIPS projected WAR: 10.4

2019 Relief Pitcher WAR: 4.1
2020 ZIPS projected WAR: 6.3

It should also be noted I'm pretty sure that the Brewers have beat their ZIPS projected win total each of the last four seasons.

The Reds ZiPS projections came out today.

By comparison the Reds 2020 projections broke down as follows...

Position Player ZiPS projected WAR: 17.8
Starting Pitcher ZiPS projected WAR: 14.2
Bullpen ZiPS projected WAR: 3.6

So right now that total of 35.6 projected WAR ranks 2.5 wins behind the Brewers 2020 projection.


But ... but ... the Reds have improved SOOO much!

Like I've been saying ... they are junk until they prove they aren't. Making a few signings in the offseason doesn't automatically turn a trash team into a good one.

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


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Offline  Re: 2020 Player Projections
#43

Posted: January 14, 2020, 1:13 PM Post
Posts: 5006
homer said:
DHonks said:
Crazy to think of how bad our defense was....Weeks at 2b, Fielder at 1b. Remember all those times we justified Fielder's D by saying "he's surprisingly nimble for a guy his size!?" At least he played 1b. I had a running bet with a friend that I lost....I bet him that one time Fielder would whiff on a routine throw from an infielder, having it bounce off his face.


Then throw Braun in there at 3rd....might have been the worst third baseman in the history of baseball. Jack Z really didn't give a lick about defense, did he [smile]


The offense was epic, though... and enough for me to overlook the D.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Player Projections
#44

Posted: January 14, 2020, 4:54 PM Post
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I'm worried. ZIPS doesn't suggest that the Brewers will suck this year. That's probably a bad omen.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Player Projections
#45

Posted: January 24, 2020, 2:56 PM Post
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Cardinals ZIPS released today...

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-zips-p ... cardinals/

NL Central ZIPS thus far....

CIN Starting Pitchers 14.2 WAR
STL Starting Pitchers 11.6 WAR
MKE Starting Pitchers 10.4 WAR

MKE Relief Pitchers 6.3 WAR
STL Relief Pitchers 3.8 WAR
CIN Relief Pitchers 3.6 WAR

MKE Position Players 21.4 WAR
STL Position Players 20.5 WAR
CIN Postiion Players 17.8 WAR

MKE Total Projected 38.1 WAR
STL Total Projected 35.9 WAR
CIN Total Projected 35.6 WAR


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Offline  Re: 2020 Player Projections
#46

Posted: January 24, 2020, 3:09 PM Post
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Reds and Brewers both have a lot of goofy players that could go either way. Guys like Sogard who has been really good twice and just awful once, who knows what he is going to be this season. Projection systems are going to have large error bands for both of those teams.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Player Projections
#47

Posted: January 25, 2020, 7:35 AM Post
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sveumrules said:
MKE Total Projected 38.1 WAR
STL Total Projected 35.9 WAR
CIN Total Projected 35.6 WAR


I do think it's really interesting that despite the non-flashy way the Brewers turned the roster over this offseason, they seem to have improved the roster from 1-26. As Ennder noted, though, there are a lot of players that could push this significantly one way or the other.

I can't shake the feeling that there's still one more significant move still coming, though, but that's just IMO.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Player Projections
#48

Posted: January 25, 2020, 8:15 AM Post
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PeaveyFury said:
I can't shake the feeling that there's still one more significant move still coming, though, but that's just IMO.

Same for me. Maybe I am setting myself up to be disappointed, but the fact Stearns has twice told the Brewers beat reporters this off-season that he thought there were opportunities to upgrade via trade gives me hope that something will come together to give the roster an additional boost.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Player Projections
#49

Posted: January 25, 2020, 8:23 AM Post
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Eye Black said:
PeaveyFury said:
I can't shake the feeling that there's still one more significant move still coming, though, but that's just IMO.

Same for me. Maybe I am setting myself up to be disappointed, but the fact Stearns has twice told the Brewers beat reporters this off-season that he thought there were opportunities to upgrade via trade gives me hope that something will come together to give the roster an additional boost.


The moves so far, while seemingly mostly quality, haven't been the type that lather up the fanbase and get them excited (although I'm personally really excited for Garcia, Narvaez and Lindblom). Right now they have a team that should be very competitive on paper. While they probably don't "need" a bit acquisition to contend for a division title, it would certainly be fun, and get the fanbase into the Brewers going into Spring Training.

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


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Offline  Re: 2020 Player Projections
#50

Posted: January 27, 2020, 1:57 PM Post
Posts: 77
NL Central SteamerOPS projection and 3yOPS

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2F984EF5-1BAC-4236-8C54-66F98D8B9435.jpeg
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Offline  Re: 2020 Player Projections
#51

Posted: January 27, 2020, 1:58 PM Post
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Projections are for the 10 players with the most expected ABs


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Offline  Re: 2020 Player Projections
#52

Posted: January 27, 2020, 2:15 PM Post
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Our season will ride on the backs of the rotation. If they "overachieve" like the Brewers plan/hope we are likely set for a nice season. If they play to their projection, or worse, we will probably struggle to stay in serious contention. That is basically what the projection shows. The lineup is good, bullpen is great, and the rotation is subpar.

We aren't going to blow many teams away with our rotation, that is pretty obvious. That leaves us hoping for health and avoiding a chunk of starts going to 6+ ERA pitchers.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Player Projections
#53

Posted: February 07, 2020, 12:23 AM Post
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Looks like the Cubs ZIPS projections are out...

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-zips-p ... cago-cubs/

NL Central contender ZIPS thus far....

CIN Starting Pitchers 14.2 WAR
CHI Starting Pitchers 13.1 WAR
STL Starting Pitchers 11.6 WAR
MKE Starting Pitchers 10.4 WAR

MKE Relief Pitchers 6.3 WAR
STL Relief Pitchers 3.8 WAR
CIN Relief Pitchers 3.6 WAR
CHI Relief Pitchers 3.3 WAR

CHI Position Players 24.3 WAR
MKE Position Players 21.4 WAR
STL Position Players 20.5 WAR
CIN Postiion Players 17.8 WAR

CHI Total Projected 40.7 WAR
MKE Total Projected 38.1 WAR
STL Total Projected 35.9 WAR
CIN Total Projected 35.6 WAR

Should be a fun summer.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Player Projections
#54

Posted: February 14, 2020, 7:07 AM Post
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Mike Petriello of MLB.com did an article where he tried to determine the Deepest Lineups in 2020 by using the following criteria:

- We'll use the Steamer projections housed at FanGraphs

- We'll look only for players projected to have at least 300 plate appearances

- Of those, we'll look only for hitters projected to have an average-or-better 100 wRC+


The 2020 projections for a total of 155 players in MLB matched the above criteria (the last two years the actual results have led to 149 and 159 players matching/exceeding this threshold when the season was over).

The Twins led the way with an incredible 10 such players with Steamer projections that matched the criteria heading into 2020. The Brewers and Red Sox tied for 10th with 6 such players a piece. One reason I found this exercise interesting is I get the feeling the Brewers goal is to fill their lineup out with as many average or better offensive players as possible, some of which they will certainly do using platoons instead of lineup mainstays. They are about where I would have guessed on the list.

Below is the chart showing the results for all teams.

Image


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Offline  Re: 2020 Player Projections
#55

Posted: February 14, 2020, 10:40 AM Post
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Fancy Christian Yelich Steamer projection graphic from MLB...

Image


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Offline  Re: 2020 Player Projections
#56

Posted: February 14, 2020, 11:06 AM Post
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Eye Black said:
Fancy Christian Yelich Steamer projection graphic from MLB...

Image


Weak. 7+WAR last 2 seasons and they go 5.7? Impressive total in Runs though.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Player Projections
#57

Posted: February 14, 2020, 12:29 PM Post
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Well projections have to include the chance for injury etc, that is why they always seem so muted. Yelich really can't do too much better than he has the past 2 years but there are lots of scenarios where he does worse.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Player Projections
#58

Posted: February 14, 2020, 1:14 PM Post
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Location: Milwaukee, WI
Fluke injury or not, I expect him to take a step back because it is tough to maintain the pace he was going at.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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