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Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers

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Offline  Re: Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers
Posted: November 28, 2019, 9:18 PM Post
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Thanks John. I appreciate the insights into your thought process as well.


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Offline  Re: Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers
Posted: November 28, 2019, 9:23 PM Post
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Location: Washburn, WI
johnbitzer said:
So here's how we handle tweeners (what we call guys who are not quite established yet in the majors, but graduated from the minors): we do a pro-ration method where we take the major-league projection (which is based on their major league performance) and weight that against their prospect value, up to three years. So a guy whose prospect value is, say, 60, who then has a bad first year which projects him for, say, 30, will have a value of 50 ((60*2)+(30*1))/3. If the same pattern holds another year, the weighting will shift more to the majors' value ((60*1)+(30*2)/3 = 40. After three years, he's a fully established major-leaguer.

However, we've found that it's not quite that simple. There are many cases where the market showed us that the value had changed more than that would suggest. For example, Jharel Cotton was a 55 who was just DFA'd by the A's, then sold for only $100K to the Cubs. His meager MLB performance dragged his value down, but not as much as that would suggest. What made the number line up was a change to the prospect rating -- we had to infer that he wouldn't be a 55 anymore if he were still being rated by the evaluators. There are other examples of this as well, where former top prospects fall out of favor faster than you'd think. (Injuries can play a role in this as well.)

Trouble is, that puts us in a precarious position, because we're not talent scouts. But we can do some basic algebra and solve for x, so that's what we do. x in these cases is the adjustment to the prospect rating.

So on the one hand, we agree that tweeners like this shouldn't be adjusted up or down too much, because in most cases their ratings are fine. But there are enough other cases where they're not fine that we have to treat them as those types of exceptions.

As to your other questions about those prospects, we use a weighted average of the big ratings systems. We place a higher weighting on Baseball America, because they're the most respected and established, their system is thorough, they have strong relationships with front offices, and weighting them higher correlates well with our findings. So those variations are due to those weightings. (We place very little weight on BP's prospect ratings.)

As for Hader, you'll no doubt be aware that he was recently identified as a Super 2. That means he's about to be paid a lot more, since he has four arb years, and not three. And the salary he gets in his Arb 1 year will set the floor for the next three, which will compound. In other words, his surplus value took a big hit because of that. He's still quite valuable, but there's less now as a result of that.


Thank you for the response. I do think that elite relievers do fetch more than their value is listed for just because teams know how important it is having a multi inning pen arm that will shut down the other team, especially in the postseason. Hader is in a one of a kind situation with the amount of control, below market value salary, strikeout prowess, and multi inning ability that he brings to the table (if they were to entertain a trade).


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Offline  Re: Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers
Posted: November 28, 2019, 9:29 PM Post
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Fair enough, though logically I still don't see how Urias has fallen in value when overall he had an excellent 2019 season for his age, and when Grisham (who allegedly jumped in value) was only marginally better in his small sample of MLB playing time. Jharrel Cotton falling in value is totally different, as he is a pitcher coming off major injuries.

Another problem with adjusting projected values based on actual trades is that MLB is not necessarily a rational market. The Padres front office is feeling the heat because they are coming off several disastrous moves like signing Myers, signing Hosmer, and (not disastrous but not looking great) signing Machado, and so they want to win now. I think it's logical to bump Grisham's value because the Padres clearly have a very high opinion of him or they could have gotten a "better" outfielder for Urias. But I don't think it logically follows that Urias's value has dropped. Sometimes teams act rashly to try to win, and not because the prospect involved has gotten any worse. The Cubs trading Gleyber Torres comes to mind.

I also wouldn't discount the possibility that the Padres view Zach Davies as a major part of the trade (possibly even bigger than Grisham) because he has put up strong ERA and W totals. If there is any naive "old school" front office still in baseball, it's the team that gave nine figures to Eric Hosmer.


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Offline  Re: Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers
Posted: November 28, 2019, 9:47 PM Post
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SRB said:
If there is any naive "old school" front office still in baseball, it's the team that gave nine figures to Eric Hosmer.

I’m still bummed they hired Dave Cameron and took him out of the public sphere.


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Offline  Re: Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers
Posted: November 28, 2019, 10:41 PM Post
Posts: 1886
brewcrewdue80 said:
Brewcrewin07 said:
Though this trade is an upgrade for the Brewers(and yes it's still early), this does NOTHING to fill the hole left by Grandal's bat leaving. Urias might be a slight upgrade over Arcia(potential for more in the future), but they still need to get another big bat or two(I still love the Castellanos idea above and also one I had expressed) and also still need a HUGE rotation upgrade. For now, I'm pleased but still don't like the lineup...yet. Let's see what the rest of the off season brings


Can you ever stop ********? Look Stearns made a move. It improves the team going forward. But here you are shutting it down Nov 27th because it doesnt fill your top priority. Every single offseason for 3?years now Stearns cant live up to your Madden NFL Trade Skills. How did Darvish do? Arrieta? Who else? Your complaints like 3dozen others to have made the comment, Replacing Grandal, improve Starting Pitching, Find a 1b better than any that exists currently. Is Noted. For the thousandth time. Your speaking to a large crowd here that knows not only Baseball but likely more about the Brewers' needs than you do. Just go Meh from here on out when every move you have problem with Because it isnt your #1 priority. This addresses easily, what should be 2 of the top 5 in priorities. I dont think Arcia is #1 at SS now after this. He's the hybrid 2b/SS even 3b backup now. Lauer gives the Brewers a LH SP that has been missing and lamented for numerous times now. Basically swapped 1st rd picks and somehow got a promising SS for a #4 type of starter at best.


What the hell is your problem?? what in my post was saying I didn't like the trade?? I also said it's early yet and let's see what the rest of the off season brings. If you don't think they don't need an equivalent or better upgrade to Grandal's bat, or a top of the rotation arm, then you obviously DON'T know baseball or what the brewers needs are. There is still time to get those things. I said that. That being said, I do believe in some aspects in a market like Milwaukee, if you have free agent pursuits, your BEST avenue to get who you want is to bid early, stay aggressive with that player(players), DON'T go cheap and hope that said player(s) is willing to take your early offer for fear of getting less if he waits or not as much security. To me, the longer you wait, the MORE chance there is, it becomes a bidding war, which you simply won't win. It's the old, early bird gets the worm theory. You may not need to utilize this strategy if you aren't pursuing big time guys, but IF(and we have no way of knowing) you are pursuing a Rendon or Cole, or Wheeler, that everyone else is waiting out..get in early and hope it works.


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Offline  Re: Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers
Posted: November 28, 2019, 11:25 PM Post
Posts: 4503
turborickey said:
brewcrewdue80 said:

I think the team for 2020 is quite a bit better after this trade than the 2019 production. A Left Handed Starting Pitcher done set for at least 3-4seasons? Superb.


Wait, you think the current 2020 team is already better than the 2019 team?

We lost Grandal, and probably Moose, and you think the way the team sits right now, on November 28th, with no 1B, 3B, and a major hit to the catcher position, is better?

ummm k.


Yes in terms of Davies and Grisham vs Urias and Lauer. You misunderstood the comment as the entire team's production vs just the 2v2.


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Offline  Re: Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers
Posted: November 28, 2019, 11:32 PM Post
Posts: 4503
Brewcrewin07 said:
brewcrewdue80 said:
Brewcrewin07 said:
Though this trade is an upgrade for the Brewers(and yes it's still early), this does NOTHING to fill the hole left by Grandal's bat leaving. Urias might be a slight upgrade over Arcia(potential for more in the future), but they still need to get another big bat or two(I still love the Castellanos idea above and also one I had expressed) and also still need a HUGE rotation upgrade. For now, I'm pleased but still don't like the lineup...yet. Let's see what the rest of the off season brings


Can you ever stop ********? Look Stearns made a move. It improves the team going forward. But here you are shutting it down Nov 27th because it doesnt fill your top priority. Every single offseason for 3?years now Stearns cant live up to your Madden NFL Trade Skills. How did Darvish do? Arrieta? Who else? Your complaints like 3dozen others to have made the comment, Replacing Grandal, improve Starting Pitching, Find a 1b better than any that exists currently. Is Noted. For the thousandth time. Your speaking to a large crowd here that knows not only Baseball but likely more about the Brewers' needs than you do. Just go Meh from here on out when every move you have problem with Because it isnt your #1 priority. This addresses easily, what should be 2 of the top 5 in priorities. I dont think Arcia is #1 at SS now after this. He's the hybrid 2b/SS even 3b backup now. Lauer gives the Brewers a LH SP that has been missing and lamented for numerous times now. Basically swapped 1st rd picks and somehow got a promising SS for a #4 type of starter at best.


What the hell is your problem??
I also said it's early yet and let's see what the rest of the off season brings. If you don't think they don't need an equivalent or better upgrade to Grandal's bat, or a top of the rotation arm, then you obviously DON'T know baseball or what the brewers needs are. There is still time to get those things. I said that. That being said, I do believe in some aspects in a market like Milwaukee, if you have free agent pursuits, your BEST avenue to get who you want is to bid early, stay aggressive with that player(players), DON'T go cheap and hope that said player(s) is willing to take your early offer for fear of getting less if he waits or not as much security. To me, the longer you wait, the MORE chance there is, it becomes a bidding war, which you simply won't win. It's the old, early bird gets the worm theory. You may not need to utilize this strategy if you aren't pursuing big time guys, but IF(and we have no way of knowing) you are pursuing a Rendon or Cole, or Wheeler, that everyone else is waiting out..get in early and hope it works.


I'll apologize slightly on that remark, you lead off so strongly with your comment, I skimmed the rest because. Here's this guy doing what he does. I guess what I read after didn't translate properly in my head.

"what in my post was saying I didn't like the trade?? "
this does NOTHING to fill the hole left by Grandal's bat leaving. Urias might be a slight upgrade over Arcia(potential for more in the future), but they still need to get another big bat or two

You had full capitol letters (ie screaming!) NOTHING. Dem fightin words when I read it that way.

Also a poster mentioned the PTBNL being that the Padres select Zach Brown in the rule 5 and give him back to us if so. I feel like that would be breaking a rule. For a team to help another team that way. And another question, If the potential ptbnl is a rule 5 from the Padres, why would it have to wait through the rule 5 draft? Since Zach Brown is eligible, is Stearns no longer able to use him in a trade between now and the day of the rule 5 draft?


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Offline  Re: Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers
Posted: November 28, 2019, 11:45 PM Post
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True Blue Brew Crew said:
Eye Black said:
Any guesses on the PTBNL?

As Mass Haas pointed out on Twitter there is a good chance the potential player to be named later is eligible for the Rule 5 draft which is why they have to wait to complete the deal.

If that is indeed the case, the Padres have a strong pool of talent that is Rule 5 draft eligible. Here are a few of the names...


1B/3B Jason Vosler



Vosler seems like the obvious choice out of these guys given his positional versatility between 1B/3B, the Brewers obvious need there, and his left-handedness at the plate. He's a little older (26) but that's why he's a throw-in not a centerpiece.


Eh. He's 26 as you said. Not much upside there. I'd swing for the fences.


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Offline  Re: Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers
Posted: November 29, 2019, 2:44 AM Post
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brewcrewdue80 said:
And another question, If the potential ptbnl is a rule 5 from the Padres, why would it have to wait through the rule 5 draft? Since Zach Brown is eligible, is Stearns no longer able to use him in a trade between now and the day of the rule 5 draft?


They could include a rule 5 eligible player in the trade right now if they wanted to. I think the issue is that the player would still be eligible for the rule 5 draft as a Brewer, and the Brewers would have to add him to the 40-man roster to prevent that. Which, considering what a scarce resource those spots are for a team that cycles through as many players as the Brewers, they might not want to do. And also don't want to risk losing him. So if he isn't selected in the rule 5 draft, the trade gets finished. If not, it'd be #2 on the PTBNL list (or cash).

That's assuming that rule 5 was the reason behind the PTBNL; It might very well not be.


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Offline  Re: Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers
Posted: November 29, 2019, 9:17 AM Post
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I hope it a player to be named later not Cash.


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Offline  Re: Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers
Posted: November 29, 2019, 9:45 AM Post
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brewmann04 said:
I hope it a player to be named later not Cash.


I hope it is a player named Cash.

I went to search mlb.com for players named Cash, and what showed up was Manny Machado. [laughing]


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Offline  Re: Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers
Posted: November 29, 2019, 10:34 AM Post
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Is Segura a decent comparison for Urias?


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Offline  Re: Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers
Posted: November 29, 2019, 11:11 AM Post
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My phone has a News page to flip to. In my most recent check of the news was a video by a guy who seemed like a Padres fan reviewing recent moves in MLB. He talked how Urias was a top ep prospect, #1 in 2018 for 2b apparently over Hiura. And then that his defense is good enough for SS or via what he read on him. So I'll just plug him in to SS and wait to find out. The takes here seemed to favor he was a 2b first SS in a pinch.


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Offline  Re: Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers
Posted: November 29, 2019, 11:19 AM Post
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On Urias' milb.com page, there were a few articles about his defense (including comments from him stating that the was working on his SS defense), so I'd assume its more of a known issue. Maybe its MLB passible, but not what Arcia is capable of doing.

His 2018 MLB prospect ranking seems to sum it well:
Urias proved plenty capable at shortstop in 2017, first in Double-A and then in the Arizona Fall League, and should continue to see some time there moving forward. His ultimate defensive home, however, is likely second base, where he profiles as an above-average defender with good range and arm strength. Overall, Urias has the ingredients to hit atop a lineup while manning a middle-infield position for a long, long time.

So odd thought... if we were going for Lindor, what if Huira was the bait and Urias is slated for 2B?


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Offline  Re: Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers
Posted: November 29, 2019, 12:13 PM Post
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SRB said:
Fair enough, though logically I still don't see how Urias has fallen in value when overall he had an excellent 2019 season for his age, and when Grisham (who allegedly jumped in value) was only marginally better in his small sample of MLB playing time. Jharrel Cotton falling in value is totally different, as he is a pitcher coming off major injuries.

Another problem with adjusting projected values based on actual trades is that MLB is not necessarily a rational market. The Padres front office is feeling the heat because they are coming off several disastrous moves like signing Myers, signing Hosmer, and (not disastrous but not looking great) signing Machado, and so they want to win now. I think it's logical to bump Grisham's value because the Padres clearly have a very high opinion of him or they could have gotten a "better" outfielder for Urias. But I don't think it logically follows that Urias's value has dropped. Sometimes teams act rashly to try to win, and not because the prospect involved has gotten any worse. The Cubs trading Gleyber Torres comes to mind.

I also wouldn't discount the possibility that the Padres view Zach Davies as a major part of the trade (possibly even bigger than Grisham) because he has put up strong ERA and W totals. If there is any naive "old school" front office still in baseball, it's the team that gave nine figures to Eric Hosmer.


That depends on whether you are looking at a player's value based on what he will do on the field, or his value on an open market.

In the stock market, with millions of buyers and sellers, there are always companies trading for less than the company is probably worth based on valuations. These can be summed up with the generic term "Market inefficiencies." There are lots of reasons for this, and long-term investors (like Warren Buffet) have made a fortune looking for these deals.

In baseball, there is only a market of 30 teams, so there are going to be a lot of inefficiencies as GM's put more emphasis on certain types of players over others, or simply because there is a greater demand for or supply of certain types of players at a given time. Like the stock market, there will be bids for every ask. If everyone wants that player (high demand), the bids go up, and the "market value" of the player will go up, even though he's the same player, so his "actual value" (how good he is, along with his contract) remains the same. With a limited amount of capital, as well as a limited amount of roster space, when the price of some players goes up, there are usually players who end up with a lower value than they "should." In my humble opinion, this was the underlying theme of Moneyball... rate players and look for market inefficiencies to find players trading for under what you think they are worth.

Urias will not be a better or worse player based on what he's traded for, but this trade shows that his "market value" is probably less than previously thought. As Brewer fans, we have to hope that his real value continues to rise.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

~Bill Walsh


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Offline  Re: Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers
Posted: November 29, 2019, 12:23 PM Post
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That's just objectively not how MLB trades work though. Teams work out trades without soliciting offers from other teams all the time (for example, perhaps San Diego's scouts just love Grisham and were willing to pay almost any cost).

Obviously we all know that prospect rankings from sources like Baseball America are wildly speculative and not scientific, but if you are basing projected "value" (i.e. a $/WAR figure for projected WAR) on rankings ostensibly based on what BA scouts and BA sources think of a player's skills and potential in a vacuum, that should not change based on a trade that seems unbalanced.

I never reevaluated my opinion of Eric Hosmer after the market said he was worth nine figures.

I will grant you that this trade is one additional data point that at least one GM thinks the "value" of Urias/Lauer is closer to Grisham/Davies than the prior consensus (though even that is not absolutely certain), but should that alter our expectations/projections so dramatically? If so then I question the value of even pretending to rank prospects, which is a bit depressing for us armchair GMs online because the logical endpoint is that every single transaction is more or less a win-win swap between equally rational (and equally competent) front offices [smile]


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Offline  Re: Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers
Posted: November 29, 2019, 2:19 PM Post
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Didn't think I'd ever read an article where the Brewers were called " entrenched contenders "

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tonyblengi ... ssion=true


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Offline  Re: Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers
Posted: November 29, 2019, 2:45 PM Post
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markedman5 said:
Didn't think I'd ever read an article where the Brewers were called " entrenched contenders "

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tonyblengi ... ssion=true

Well it was written by a former member of the Brewers’ front office. [smile]

Thanks for sharing.


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Offline  Re: Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers
Posted: November 29, 2019, 3:06 PM Post
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Looking back at this year’s Baseball America Prospect Handbook (published last February) they had Urías as the #3 overall prospect in the Padres system (a farm system they had ranked as #1 in baseball). They had him ranked as the second best 2B prospect in baseball behind only Keston Hiura. Below is their scouting report for Urías.

TRACK RECORD: The Padres purchased Urías’ rights from Mexico City for $100,000 when he was 16 in a deal facilitated by club owner Alfredo Harp Helu, a minority stakeholder in the Padres. Urías wasted no time validating the deal. He won the California League batting title and MVP award as a 19 year old, represented Mexico in the World Baseball Classic and led the Texas League in on-base percentage in his age-20 season. Last year Urías hit a team-best .298 at Triple-A El Paso, started the Futures Game, and made his major league debut at 21.

SCOUTING REPORT: Urías has the gifts of a potential .300 hitter. Short but mighty, the 5-foot-9 Urías takes advantage of his compact strike zone with a quick, level swing that produces hard line drives to all fields. He has an elite eye and rarely chases, forcing pitchers to come to him and punishing hittable pitches when they do. Urías’ build and swing aren’t conducive to home runs, but with his quick bat he can square up a fastball and drive it out when he finds a ball where he wants it. Defensively, Urías is an above-average second baseman with sure hands, clean footwork and an impressive vertical leap to go with an above-average arm. He can fill in as an average shortstop, although his range there is stretched.

THE FUTURE: Urías’ pure stroke and elite eye give him a chance to contend for batting titles at his peak.


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Offline  Re: Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers
Posted: November 29, 2019, 3:14 PM Post
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markedman5 said:
Didn't think I'd ever read an article where the Brewers were called " entrenched contenders "

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tonyblengi ... ssion=true


What fantastic read! Thank you for sharing! That is probably the best analysis I have read on trade. He will be someone I look for more often to read.


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