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Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers

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Offline  Re: Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers
Posted: November 29, 2019, 6:17 PM Post
Posts: 1047
Reading about this trade, I haven't really seen any neutral parties say anything other than that the Brewers look to have gotten the better of this deal initially. Usually with the (rightful) caveat that it's too early to tell, that Urias might not be an ideal fit at SS etc. Padres' fans aren't too happy about it either in general. But fans tend to try and rationalise moves by their team, and the ones doing it for the Padres are really going all out for it. It's kind of amusing (Even though I suspect it's not all taken out of thin air; they did watch Urias and Lauer this past year) how there are some people who seem to refuse to acknowledge the possibility that the front office that gave Eric Hosmer $144m might be capable of misjudging things...

Speaking of which, were there even any other real suitors (Publicly known anyway), or did they give him $144m while bidding against themselves? I seem to recall the Padres being the one team talked about in relation to Hosmer almost from the start. And in the past few years, is the Hosmer contract the clearest example of a deal *everyone* (Except the Padres FO) could see was bad? And I don't just mean deals where you expect the last few years to be bad, but where you'd expect a few good years before that. But where you give $144m to a player who put up ~10 fWAR in almost 7 full seasons. Someone at the bottom end of the defensive spectrum to boot. Hats off to Scott Boras for that one tbh.


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Offline  Re: Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers
Posted: November 29, 2019, 7:59 PM Post
Posts: 12429
Wasn’t the original plan was to have Hosmer as a veteran guy during a rebuild...as some type of leader. Thus the money wasn’t really a big deal to them.


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Offline  Re: Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers
Posted: November 29, 2019, 8:15 PM Post
Posts: 19419
MrTPlush said:
Wasn’t the original plan was to have Hosmer as a veteran guy during a rebuild...as some type of leader. Thus the money wasn’t really a big deal to them.


If that is really all they wanted out of Hosmer their GM should be fired on the spot. If you're going to dish out 144 million dollars you better be planning on getting some production to go along with that veteran leadership. You don't spend 144 million dollars for veteran leadership. That's what $2.5M dollar contracts to guys like Stephen Vogt are for.


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Offline  Re: Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers
Posted: November 29, 2019, 10:11 PM Post
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I'd give $144 million to bring Mike Cameron back and just have him hang around the dugout, to be fair.


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Offline  Re: Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers
Posted: November 30, 2019, 10:02 AM Post
Posts: 4706
Eye Black said:
Any guesses on the PTBNL?

As Mass Haas pointed out on Twitter there is a good chance the potential player to be named later is eligible for the Rule 5 draft which is why they have to wait to complete the deal.

If that is indeed the case, the Padres have a strong pool of talent that is Rule 5 draft eligible. Here are a few of the names...


1B/3B Jason Vosler

2B Esteury Ruiz

OF Buddy Reed

OF Michael Gettys

RHP Lake Bachar - Former UW-Whitewater pitcher

RHRP Dauris Valdez

RHRP Evan Miller

RHRP Trevor Megill


Any other interesting Padres names eligible for the Rule 5? Not that this deal needs to get much better, but I am curious to see how the PTBNL plays out (assuming it doesn’t end up being cash).


Vosler is very intriguing as a left-handed bat with good OBP skills, and some serious pop. I think he could sneak his way on as a productive member of the MLB team.

Gettys has a powerful RH bat, but iffy OBP skills.

Reed and Ruiz are interesting... anyone know if they are eligible for the minor-league portion of the Rule 5? Ruiz would be someone I'd take for that in a heartbeat. Reed's also interesting, and his OBP has taken a step up.


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Offline  Re: Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers
Posted: November 30, 2019, 11:34 AM Post
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Lathund said:
It's kind of amusing (Even though I suspect it's not all taken out of thin air; they did watch Urias and Lauer this past year) how there are some people who seem to refuse to acknowledge the possibility that the front office that gave Eric Hosmer $144m might be capable of misjudging things...

What GM's crap doesn't stink? Would you rate every single move Stearns has made as a winner? In my opinion he had a pretty crappy year from the end of 2018 thru most of 2019 and I still think he's very good, but he has and will continue to make mistakes. I'm no Preller fan, but the Padres have one of the top rated farm sytems because they were able to identify good prospects when they sold off any asset during their rebuild. Sure the Hosmer contract will go down as a really bad deal, but sometimes when you have money to spend and there isn't much left to buy a GM will waste the money. Heck, was anyone going past 7 years for Bryce Harper? The Phillies believed they had to go to 10 even though the market was terrible. Money to burn sometimes leads to money wasted. It will be very interesting to see how Stearns uses the $40M saved so far in a free agent market that is pretty much crap (I don't recall as bad a free agent crop in a long time). In fact, Thames is one of the best low-cost assets in FA and we just released him for nothing.

JosephC said:
Stearns probably had no interest in getting a C because the Brewers need a C. It makes much more sense to trade for 3B when it's not needed, and then move the other 3B to 2B, then trade for a 2B, but since the 3B is now at 2B, then the new 2B goes to SS


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Offline  Re: Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers
Posted: November 30, 2019, 7:27 PM Post
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xisxisxis said:
What GM's crap doesn't stink? Would you rate every single move Stearns has made as a winner? In my opinion he had a pretty crappy year from the end of 2018 thru most of 2019


Interesting, because I think the job he did as GM in 2019 to make the team competitive in the end was fantastically good.


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Offline  Re: Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers
Posted: November 30, 2019, 9:14 PM Post
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PeaveyFury said:
xisxisxis said:
What GM's crap doesn't stink? Would you rate every single move Stearns has made as a winner? In my opinion he had a pretty crappy year from the end of 2018 thru most of 2019


Interesting, because I think the job he did as GM in 2019 to make the team competitive in the end was fantastically good.


Depends on what the goal was. If it was to be competitive, then he was successful. If it was to win the WS, then the decisions he made (and a bunch of unfortunate injuries) weren’t a success.


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Offline  Re: Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers
Posted: November 30, 2019, 9:19 PM Post
Posts: 19419
mtrebs said:
PeaveyFury said:
xisxisxis said:
What GM's crap doesn't stink? Would you rate every single move Stearns has made as a winner? In my opinion he had a pretty crappy year from the end of 2018 thru most of 2019


Interesting, because I think the job he did as GM in 2019 to make the team competitive in the end was fantastically good.


Depends on what the goal was. If it was to be competitive, then he was successful. If it was to win the WS, then the decisions he made (and a bunch of unfortunate injuries) weren’t a success.


The ultimate goal is obviously always to win a WS. No one goes into a season saying "I hope we can be competitive this year." That said, win a WS seems like a pretty unfair bar to measure GM success or lack of success unless we're going to say that there is 1 successful GM and 29 unsuccessful GMs every season.

I think all you can do each season is put yourself in a position to be competitive and then see what happens from there.


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Offline  Re: Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers
Posted: November 30, 2019, 9:28 PM Post
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Where the Brewers were at after the 2018 season, I’m still under the mindset that 2019 was the year they should have made the big push by acquiring necessary starting pitching. Stearns went a different approach that I didn’t agree with and it failed, even though they got to the postseason. Because of that I don’t consider Stearns’ 2019 a success.

Edit: We’re getting off topic here so I’ll stop with this now.


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Offline  Re: Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers
Posted: November 30, 2019, 10:17 PM Post
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mtrebs said:
PeaveyFury said:
xisxisxis said:
What GM's crap doesn't stink? Would you rate every single move Stearns has made as a winner? In my opinion he had a pretty crappy year from the end of 2018 thru most of 2019


Interesting, because I think the job he did as GM in 2019 to make the team competitive in the end was fantastically good.


Depends on what the goal was. If it was to be competitive, then he was successful. If it was to win the WS, then the decisions he made (and a bunch of unfortunate injuries) weren’t a success.


Are we blaming a GM for a “bunch of unfortunate injuries” now?


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Offline  Re: Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers
Posted: November 30, 2019, 11:17 PM Post
Posts: 5238
Location: New Berlin, WI
PeaveyFury said:
Thanks John. I appreciate the insights into your thought process as well.


+1, I really enjoyed your insights into evaluation. I'll add this entire thread has been a very enjoyable and good discussion.


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Offline  Re: Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers
Posted: December 01, 2019, 2:45 AM Post
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PeaveyFury said:
mtrebs said:
PeaveyFury said:
Interesting, because I think the job he did as GM in 2019 to make the team competitive in the end was fantastically good.


Depends on what the goal was. If it was to be competitive, then he was successful. If it was to win the WS, then the decisions he made (and a bunch of unfortunate injuries) weren’t a success.


Are we blaming a GM for a “bunch of unfortunate injuries” now?


No, I didn’t mean that. I mentioned that because it played a large part towards how the year ended up as well. The team Stearns put together was good, good enough to overcome those injuries and still make the postseason, but not quite good enough in the end. With a more solidified pitching staff, the Brewers likely would have won a few more games, theoretically enough to win the division, and they could have been in a better position in the postseason.


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Offline  Re: Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers
Posted: December 01, 2019, 10:11 AM Post
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mtrebs said:
PeaveyFury said:
xisxisxis said:
What GM's crap doesn't stink? Would you rate every single move Stearns has made as a winner? In my opinion he had a pretty crappy year from the end of 2018 thru most of 2019


Interesting, because I think the job he did as GM in 2019 to make the team competitive in the end was fantastically good.


Depends on what the goal was. If it was to be competitive, then he was successful. If it was to win the WS, then the decisions he made (and a bunch of unfortunate injuries) weren’t a success.


There are so many variables out of a GM's control that go into winning a World Series a more realistic goal (from a GM's perspective) is to field a team capable of winning a World Series every year. That gives us the best chance of eventually winning one. Given we made the playoffs and came an error away from beating the eventual WS champs I'd say he succeeded in his task.

There needs to be a King Thames version of the bible.


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Offline  Re: Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers
Posted: December 01, 2019, 12:46 PM Post
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David Laurila's Sunday Notes column leads off with Lauer this week...

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-note ... -of-depth/

My guess is the Brewers have something in mind with his pitch mix they think can help unlock better results.


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Offline  Re: Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers
Posted: December 01, 2019, 11:28 PM Post
Posts: 217
We traded for another Arcia. Would have kept Grisham


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Offline  Re: Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers
Posted: December 02, 2019, 1:22 AM Post
Posts: 19419
brewersfan101 said:
We traded for another Arcia. Would have kept Grisham


Urias actually hit in the minors. Arcia for the most part did not.


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Offline  Re: Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers
Posted: December 02, 2019, 5:41 AM Post
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brewersfan101 said:
We traded for another Arcia. Would have kept Grisham


Arcia is actually a very poor comp for Urias. Try again.


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Offline  Re: Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers
Posted: December 02, 2019, 6:10 AM Post
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brewersfan101 said:
We traded for another Arcia. Would have kept Grisham


Uhh LOL no. This is not true. At all.


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Offline  Re: Davies and Grisham to San Diego, Urias and Lauer to the Brewers
Posted: December 02, 2019, 8:36 AM Post
Posts: 12429
adambr2 said:
brewersfan101 said:
We traded for another Arcia. Would have kept Grisham


Urias actually hit in the minors. Arcia for the most part did not.


This really gets glossed over when it comes to Arcia. He had a solid season in A+ ball, had the good season in AA, and then followed that up being terrible at AAA (considering where he played). Arcia produced in the winter league a few times, but those end up being real small samples. Arcia got overhyped majorly. It is somewhat comical he was ever a Top 10 prospect in baseball when he never posted an OPS over .800...given he didn't stay in the minors that long, but he never put up eye popping stats.

Urias may be the next Arcia, but I think he is a little more promising than that. Still, if you look at Urias most of his production seems to be in hitter friendly AAA. I guess we shall see what comes of his offense because he won't provide nearly as much on defense. Sometimes it can be real hard to predict the success of a player by minor league production when they move incredibly fast through the system. You can hype a guy up cause he is so much younger than the league average (Arcia), but sometimes that doesn't translate to MLB success.


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