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Jonathan Villar waived

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Online  Re: Jonathan Villar waived
#21

Posted: November 27, 2019, 11:06 PM Post
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Posts: 10003
I agree DS needs to find that solid #2 starter to go 6 plus.


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Offline  Re: Jonathan Villar waived
#22

Posted: November 27, 2019, 11:43 PM Post
Posts: 47
Location: oshkosh wi
I would love to have villar playing ss.....urais at 3b
and moose at 1st.....


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Online  Re: Jonathan Villar waived
#23

Posted: November 27, 2019, 11:46 PM Post
Posts: 12542
packer822 said:
I would love to have villar playing ss.....urais at 3b
and moose at 1st.....


I think you would love the offense...you would not like them playing those positions in the field. Does Urias have the arm for 3B?

It’s all moot anyway. The Brewers ran Villar out of town...regardless of the perceived need/fit some may see I doubt they would consider bringing him back into fold.


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Offline  Re: Jonathan Villar waived
#24

Posted: November 27, 2019, 11:57 PM Post
Posts: 2396
I love when we do this.
Give up Scooter at 26 and watch him have the best 2 years of his career.
Trade Villar as scrap at 27 and watch him pop off 4 WAR.
Trade Escobar at 23 and watch 2 of his next 4 years be pretty good.
Trade Segura at 26 and watch him blow up.

Now we want to non-tender Arcia? Why? So we can have a thread about getting him back 2 years from now when he's in his prime years?

Can we sell high on one of these guys? Please? Be patient and sell high on ONE. This decade?

As for Villar, he's a 200K guy. The metrics we use do not like that one bit. Throw everything else out. This team can not survive high K rates at positions that produce moderate offensive output.


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Offline  Re: Jonathan Villar waived
#25

Posted: November 28, 2019, 12:02 AM Post
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JohnBriggs12 said:
clancyphile said:
Villar is, at the very least, a non-black hole.

The Crew lost Grandal, they lost Pomeranz, both of whom they really should have made plays to bring back. Get Moose back to play first, use Villar at third, and they now are a decent catcher away from having no black holes in the lineup.


You don't win by having no black holes in your lineup. You win with having stars in your lineup. The Brewer focus needs to be on bringing in an impact bat and a number 2 starting pitcher.

As for what Villar brings, Starlin Castro is a much better player and he's available too. Villar ended up at 2B because he failed miserably at SS and 3B. Castro has ability to play 3B and his K rate is much lower than Villar's



Villar has had a higher WAR than Castro 3 of the last 4 years, and K rate is almost meaningless. In 4 of the last 5 seasons, Castro has walked less than 30 times, so if he doesn't hit .290, he will OBP .300 or less. If the context is "as a 3rd baseman", he probably has more value to the Brewers, but he's not a much better player than Villar.


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Offline  Re: Jonathan Villar waived
#26

Posted: November 28, 2019, 12:14 AM Post
Posts: 3786
I think there is a 50/50 chance Counsell would resign if the Brewers signed Villar. I don’t think he can stand him, won’t play him, won’t trust him...

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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Offline  Re: Jonathan Villar waived
#27

Posted: November 28, 2019, 1:25 AM Post
Posts: 19587
3and2Fastball said:
I think there is a 50/50 chance Counsell would resign if the Brewers signed Villar.


I don't believe for one second that Craig Counsell would be that unprofessional. Resign from a great job that he's held for 5 years because he can't stand one single player that they brought in? For a reason we don't even know? (Which we don't even know, we're just speculating.)

That would be an embarrassing stain on his managerial reputation. Craig is better than that.


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Offline  Re: Jonathan Villar waived
#28

Posted: November 28, 2019, 2:55 AM Post
Posts: 4196
TJseven7 said:
I love when we do this.
Give up Scooter at 26 and watch him have the best 2 years of his career.
Trade Villar as scrap at 27 and watch him pop off 4 WAR.
Trade Escobar at 23 and watch 2 of his next 4 years be pretty good.
Trade Segura at 26 and watch him blow up.

Now we want to non-tender Arcia? Why? So we can have a thread about getting him back 2 years from now when he's in his prime years?

Can we sell high on one of these guys? Please? Be patient and sell high on ONE. This decade?

As for Villar, he's a 200K guy. The metrics we use do not like that one bit. Throw everything else out. This team can not survive high K rates at positions that produce moderate offensive output.



You simultaneously complained about the Brewers trading Villar before he had a good couple seasons and then dismissed the idea of bringing him back BECAUSE of how he played in those seasons.


I personally don't really care if we bring back Villar. I think he'd be a really nice utility player but I doubt he wants to play in that role. I also doubt anyone would be that invested in Villar if he wasn't a former Brewer.


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Offline  Re: Jonathan Villar waived
#29

Posted: November 28, 2019, 3:01 AM Post
Posts: 19587
HiAndTight said:
TJseven7 said:
I love when we do this.
Give up Scooter at 26 and watch him have the best 2 years of his career.
Trade Villar as scrap at 27 and watch him pop off 4 WAR.
Trade Escobar at 23 and watch 2 of his next 4 years be pretty good.
Trade Segura at 26 and watch him blow up.

Now we want to non-tender Arcia? Why? So we can have a thread about getting him back 2 years from now when he's in his prime years?

Can we sell high on one of these guys? Please? Be patient and sell high on ONE. This decade?

As for Villar, he's a 200K guy. The metrics we use do not like that one bit. Throw everything else out. This team can not survive high K rates at positions that produce moderate offensive output.



You simultaneously complained about the Brewers trading Villar before he had a good couple seasons and then dismissed the idea of bringing him back BECAUSE of how he played in those seasons.


I personally don't really care if we bring back Villar. I think he'd be a really nice utility player but I doubt he wants to play in that role. I also doubt anyone would be that invested in Villar if he wasn't a former Brewer.


I can assure you that it a 4 WAR switch hitter suddenly became available for free I would be paying attention regardless of what his former team was.


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Online  Re: Jonathan Villar waived
#30

Posted: November 28, 2019, 5:13 AM Post
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Posts: 1819
TJseven7 said:
I love when we do this.
Give up Scooter at 26 and watch him have the best 2 years of his career.
Trade Villar as scrap at 27 and watch him pop off 4 WAR.
Trade Escobar at 23 and watch 2 of his next 4 years be pretty good.
Trade Segura at 26 and watch him blow up.

Now we want to non-tender Arcia? Why? So we can have a thread about getting him back 2 years from now when he's in his prime years?

Can we sell high on one of these guys? Please? Be patient and sell high on ONE. This decade?

As for Villar, he's a 200K guy. The metrics we use do not like that one bit. Throw everything else out. This team can not survive high K rates at positions that produce moderate offensive output.


You post this comment literally the exact same day we traded Grisham after years of patience with him and are selling at what could very well be his peak value. This is ironic.


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Offline  Re: Jonathan Villar waived
#31

Posted: November 28, 2019, 8:13 AM Post
Posts: 2070
He led the league in SB one year and Craig wouldn't dare to pinch run him the next. That is all you need to know about his baserunning skills.
I would put Aguilar and Sogard in front of him on my wish list for return Brewers this holiday season. Sheffield would be on the bottom of that list.


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Online  Re: Jonathan Villar waived
#32

Posted: November 28, 2019, 10:10 AM Post
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I’m a big believer that Arcia has potential but not sure what that has to do with Villar.

If anything this suggests that there was some serious substance to the “Villar is in Counsell’s doghouse” talk. No way 29 MLB teams take a pass on a 4-WAR player.


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Online  Re: Jonathan Villar waived
#33

Posted: November 28, 2019, 10:15 AM Post
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Villar is not really a "4 WAR" player. He put up 4 fWAR last season because he played every single game of the season and accumulated 700+ PA, and because his defensive metrics had a flukey year. We all know from watching him that he is not even close to an average defender.

I'd still love to have him as a utility guy and bench bat, if he cost nothing, but he's not going to be worth the cost to play that role for us.


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Online  Re: Jonathan Villar waived
#34

Posted: November 28, 2019, 10:25 AM Post
Posts: 12542
SRB said:
Villar is not really a "4 WAR" player. He put up 4 fWAR last season because he played every single game of the season and accumulated 700+ PA, and because his defensive metrics had a flukey year. We all know from watching him that he is not even close to an average defender.

I'd still love to have him as a utility guy and bench bat, if he cost nothing, but he's not going to be worth the cost to play that role for us.


Ummm...so he gets penalized for being dependable and playing every day?

Imagine we had him last year...what happens if Villar couldn’t play, who plays? Arcia, Saladin, other terrible player? Those guys would find a way to put up negative WAR in sporadic playing time. There is value in playing everyday and not having AAAA getting ABs.

Your defense comment is interesting because A) I bet you didn’t watch even 5% of Villar’s field time last year (maybe 0%?) and B) He had his worst bWAR defensive season of his career and his fWAR wasn’t all that generous either. If you made it closer to his career average it probably doesn’t take a lot off his overall WAR, probably 3.5ish instead? His fluke defensive season per fWAR was 2018.


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Offline  Re: Jonathan Villar waived
#35

Posted: November 28, 2019, 10:44 AM Post
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SRB said:
Villar is not really a "4 WAR" player. He put up 4 fWAR last season because he played every single game of the season and accumulated 700+ PA, and because his defensive metrics had a flukey year. We all know from watching him that he is not even close to an average defender.

I'd still love to have him as a utility guy and bench bat, if he cost nothing, but he's not going to be worth the cost to play that role for us.


Both fangraphs and br had him at 4 war. You dont penalize a guy for playing every day. Thats a plus. He was 3 war in 2016 per fg and 3.7 per br. If people just dont like him, thats ok, but the numbers are what they are. When multiple publications all put him at about the same value I'll take that over the ol eye test.


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Online  Re: Jonathan Villar waived
#36

Posted: November 28, 2019, 10:54 AM Post
Posts: 12542
Jonathan Villar was easily the best base runner in baseball last year according to fangraphs. BsR is a pretty in depth look at baserunning value that takes in about every aspect of baserunning you could think of...for instance getting an extra base a typical runner would not.

Cue BrewerFan Implosion

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx? ... &sort=18,d


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Online  Re: Jonathan Villar waived
#37

Posted: November 28, 2019, 11:30 AM Post
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I'm not penalizing him for playing every day. I fail to see how his ability to play 162 games would benefit us in having Villar be a bench bat or split time with Hiura/Urias/Arcia. To me calling someone a "4.0 WAR" player suggests they have All Star level talent when they are on the field, not that they are extremely durable and racked up lots of PA/IP.


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Online  Re: Jonathan Villar waived
#38

Posted: November 28, 2019, 11:37 AM Post
Posts: 4467
SRB said:
Villar is not really a "4 WAR" player. He put up 4 fWAR last season because he played every single game of the season and accumulated 700+ PA, and because his defensive metrics had a flukey year. We all know from watching him that he is not even close to an average defender.

I'd still love to have him as a utility guy and bench bat, if he cost nothing, but he's not going to be worth the cost to play that role for us.


That's the problem with using WAR in general and as a predictive measure in particular. It just doesn't measure defense well. What does having a 4 fWAR last season mean going forward? Nothing. So why do people keep using it to argue we should get a particular player or not? The fact that any team could have got a player coming off a 4 WAR season for a bag of balls and none did tells you all you need to know about how teams feel about WAR.

There needs to be a King Thames version of the bible.


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Offline  Re: Jonathan Villar waived
#39

Posted: November 28, 2019, 11:46 AM Post
Posts: 19587
Thurston Fluff said:
SRB said:
Villar is not really a "4 WAR" player. He put up 4 fWAR last season because he played every single game of the season and accumulated 700+ PA, and because his defensive metrics had a flukey year. We all know from watching him that he is not even close to an average defender.

I'd still love to have him as a utility guy and bench bat, if he cost nothing, but he's not going to be worth the cost to play that role for us.


That's the problem with using WAR in general and as a predictive measure in particular. It just doesn't measure defense well. What does having a 4 fWAR last season mean going forward? Nothing. So why do people keep using it to argue we should get a particular player or not? The fact that any team could have got a player coming off a 4 WAR season for a bag of balls and none did tells you all you need to know about how teams feel about WAR.


Or that the Orioles are a cheap and poorly run franchise.


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Offline  Re: Jonathan Villar waived
#40

Posted: November 29, 2019, 1:03 AM Post
Posts: 906
MrTPlush said:
Jonathan Villar was easily the best base runner in baseball last year according to fangraphs. BsR is a pretty in depth look at baserunning value that takes in about every aspect of baserunning you could think of...for instance getting an extra base a typical runner would not.

Cue BrewerFan Implosion

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx? ... &sort=18,d


I'm going to have one minor quibble with that stat, in that it doesn't appear to take into account leverage at all. Villar went from first to third a lot last year, I'm assuming somewhat because the Orioles were down 7 to 1 at the time and the opposing team didn't care if he took an extra base, they just wanted to keep the double play in order and keep the trail runner from getting into scoring position. That doesn't turn Villar into a great base runner. He's just an aggressive runner on a really bad team. Just like those guys on bad teams in the NBA that score 20 a night. That doesn't make them great players either, someone has to shoot the ball.

I give him credit for hustling, but let's not pretend those skills will translate when/if he starts playing in tight ballgames where the teams actually care. That's why we saw him get thrown out so many times when in meaninful Brewer games. I don't believe he's changed at all, it's just the circumstances around him have.


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