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Jonathan Villar waived

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Offline  Re: Jonathan Villar waived
#41

Posted: November 29, 2019, 2:32 AM Post
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Posts: 4121
AdvantageSchneider said:
MrTPlush said:
Jonathan Villar was easily the best base runner in baseball last year according to fangraphs. BsR is a pretty in depth look at baserunning value that takes in about every aspect of baserunning you could think of...for instance getting an extra base a typical runner would not.

Cue BrewerFan Implosion

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx? ... &sort=18,d


I'm going to have one minor quibble with that stat, in that it doesn't appear to take into account leverage at all. Villar went from first to third a lot last year, I'm assuming somewhat because the Orioles were down 7 to 1 at the time and the opposing team didn't care if he took an extra base, they just wanted to keep the double play in order and keep the trail runner from getting into scoring position. That doesn't turn Villar into a great base runner. He's just an aggressive runner on a really bad team. Just like those guys on bad teams in the NBA that score 20 a night. That doesn't make them great players either, someone has to shoot the ball.

I give him credit for hustling, but let's not pretend those skills will translate when/if he starts playing in tight ballgames where the teams actually care. That's why we saw him get thrown out so many times when in meaninful Brewer games. I don't believe he's changed at all, it's just the circumstances around him have.

Maybe he learned from past mistakes. Plenty of athletes do this.


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Offline  Re: Jonathan Villar waived
#42

Posted: November 29, 2019, 6:48 AM Post
Posts: 845
liveforoctober said:
TJseven7 said:
I love when we do this.
Give up Scooter at 26 and watch him have the best 2 years of his career.
Trade Villar as scrap at 27 and watch him pop off 4 WAR.
Trade Escobar at 23 and watch 2 of his next 4 years be pretty good.
Trade Segura at 26 and watch him blow up.

Now we want to non-tender Arcia? Why? So we can have a thread about getting him back 2 years from now when he's in his prime years?

Can we sell high on one of these guys? Please? Be patient and sell high on ONE. This decade?

As for Villar, he's a 200K guy. The metrics we use do not like that one bit. Throw everything else out. This team can not survive high K rates at positions that produce moderate offensive output.


You post this comment literally the exact same day we traded Grisham after years of patience with him and are selling at what could very well be his peak value. This is ironic.


Maybe, or maybe he explodes. You just cannot read the future. Look at Brinson? Ray? I always liked Grisham better than those two.


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Offline  Re: Jonathan Villar waived
#43

Posted: November 29, 2019, 7:02 AM Post
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danzig6767 said:
AdvantageSchneider said:
MrTPlush said:
Jonathan Villar was easily the best base runner in baseball last year according to fangraphs. BsR is a pretty in depth look at baserunning value that takes in about every aspect of baserunning you could think of...for instance getting an extra base a typical runner would not.

Cue BrewerFan Implosion

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx? ... &sort=18,d


I'm going to have one minor quibble with that stat, in that it doesn't appear to take into account leverage at all. Villar went from first to third a lot last year, I'm assuming somewhat because the Orioles were down 7 to 1 at the time and the opposing team didn't care if he took an extra base, they just wanted to keep the double play in order and keep the trail runner from getting into scoring position. That doesn't turn Villar into a great base runner. He's just an aggressive runner on a really bad team. Just like those guys on bad teams in the NBA that score 20 a night. That doesn't make them great players either, someone has to shoot the ball.

I give him credit for hustling, but let's not pretend those skills will translate when/if he starts playing in tight ballgames where the teams actually care. That's why we saw him get thrown out so many times when in meaninful Brewer games. I don't believe he's changed at all, it's just the circumstances around him have.

Maybe he learned from past mistakes. Plenty of athletes do this.


Or, it could also be possible that a new coach helped him with something that he wasn't getting helped with here. If we believe that someone like DJ can do it with pitchers, why can't an IF coach do the same with positional players?


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Offline  Re: Jonathan Villar waived
#44

Posted: November 29, 2019, 7:21 AM Post
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Posts: 1799
Mr Southpaw said:
liveforoctober said:
TJseven7 said:
I love when we do this.
Give up Scooter at 26 and watch him have the best 2 years of his career.
Trade Villar as scrap at 27 and watch him pop off 4 WAR.
Trade Escobar at 23 and watch 2 of his next 4 years be pretty good.
Trade Segura at 26 and watch him blow up.

Now we want to non-tender Arcia? Why? So we can have a thread about getting him back 2 years from now when he's in his prime years?

Can we sell high on one of these guys? Please? Be patient and sell high on ONE. This decade?

As for Villar, he's a 200K guy. The metrics we use do not like that one bit. Throw everything else out. This team can not survive high K rates at positions that produce moderate offensive output.


You post this comment literally the exact same day we traded Grisham after years of patience with him and are selling at what could very well be his peak value. This is ironic.


Maybe, or maybe he explodes. You just cannot read the future. Look at Brinson? Ray? I always liked Grisham better than those two.


I felt like saying "what could very well be" covered my statement in case he ascends. Maybe I don't know English though.


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Offline  Re: Jonathan Villar waived
#45

Posted: November 29, 2019, 8:15 AM Post
Posts: 12429
AdvantageSchneider said:
MrTPlush said:
Jonathan Villar was easily the best base runner in baseball last year according to fangraphs. BsR is a pretty in depth look at baserunning value that takes in about every aspect of baserunning you could think of...for instance getting an extra base a typical runner would not.

Cue BrewerFan Implosion

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx? ... &sort=18,d


I'm going to have one minor quibble with that stat, in that it doesn't appear to take into account leverage at all. Villar went from first to third a lot last year, I'm assuming somewhat because the Orioles were down 7 to 1 at the time and the opposing team didn't care if he took an extra base, they just wanted to keep the double play in order and keep the trail runner from getting into scoring position. That doesn't turn Villar into a great base runner. He's just an aggressive runner on a really bad team. Just like those guys on bad teams in the NBA that score 20 a night. That doesn't make them great players either, someone has to shoot the ball.

I give him credit for hustling, but let's not pretend those skills will translate when/if he starts playing in tight ballgames where the teams actually care. That's why we saw him get thrown out so many times when in meaninful Brewer games. I don't believe he's changed at all, it's just the circumstances around him have.


I'm not saying occasionally this wouldn't be true, but over the long run of 162 games that kind of stuff just doesn't add up. Villar was not the best baserunner in baseball cause he just ran around doing whatever he pleased cause he team was bad.

The only time I ever see what you are referring to consistently would be on stolen bases. In situations where a game isn't close and the defense basically just lets them take the base (but it still counts as a SB...this isn't always the case). I would imagine Villar saw a lot of these hypothetically. He was 22/26 in wins and 18/23 in losses. He was actually better in wins as far as SBs went.

The other situation would be going 1st to 3rd where the defense doesn't care late in a game. There won't be a stat to show that, but I really doubt he did that consistently to suddenly make him the best baserunner in baseball.


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Offline  Re: Jonathan Villar waived
#46

Posted: November 29, 2019, 8:47 AM Post
Posts: 588
liveforoctober said:
TJseven7 said:
I love when we do this.
Give up Scooter at 26 and watch him have the best 2 years of his career.
Trade Villar as scrap at 27 and watch him pop off 4 WAR.
Trade Escobar at 23 and watch 2 of his next 4 years be pretty good.
Trade Segura at 26 and watch him blow up.

Now we want to non-tender Arcia? Why? So we can have a thread about getting him back 2 years from now when he's in his prime years?

Can we sell high on one of these guys? Please? Be patient and sell high on ONE. This decade?

As for Villar, he's a 200K guy. The metrics we use do not like that one bit. Throw everything else out. This team can not survive high K rates at positions that produce moderate offensive output.


You post this comment literally the exact same day we traded Grisham after years of patience with him and are selling at what could very well be his peak value. This is ironic.


The Brewers dumped Villar because he was already making $2.5M and was once again arby eligible. He didn't play defense well and was horrible running the bases. The big reason; they had Arcia at SS and Huira coming up for 2B. Villar was going to be expensive as a backup.


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Offline  Re: Jonathan Villar waived
#47

Posted: November 29, 2019, 5:21 PM Post
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From reading comments from Orioles fans he's still a baseball dunce. He's so incredibly inconsistent it's impossible to figure out what kind of year he will have in 2020.


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Offline  Re: Jonathan Villar waived
#48

Posted: November 29, 2019, 9:11 PM Post
Posts: 4706
jerichoholicninja said:
From reading comments from Orioles fans he's still a baseball dunce. He's so incredibly inconsistent it's impossible to figure out what kind of year he will have in 2020.


It is a tough call.

On the one hand, when he is on, he can produce a lot. If he produced in the form he did at Baltimore, a .777 OPS, then he is a decent option at third base or as the top sub off the bench.

The question is... would he be willing to give Milwaukee another go after 2018?


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Offline  Re: Jonathan Villar waived
#49

Posted: December 02, 2019, 7:03 PM Post
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Traded to Miami for Easton Lucas.

Cards' fans wear jorts.


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Offline  Re: Jonathan Villar waived
#50

Posted: December 02, 2019, 10:45 PM Post
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Posts: 2260
trwi7 said:
Traded to Miami for Easton Lucas.


This is a good spot for him. I like his skillset, but after watching him for years I don't want him on a playoff team...which means I don't want him.


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Offline  Re: Jonathan Villar waived
#51

Posted: December 03, 2019, 8:32 AM Post
Posts: 12429
Villar probably going to have a great year in that huge ballpark. A lot of opportunity to get triples and stretch singles into doubles.

Marlins also claimed Aguilar. Good luck to him in that ballpark.


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Offline  Re: Jonathan Villar waived
#52

Posted: December 03, 2019, 8:58 AM Post
Posts: 4699
trwi7 said:
Traded to Miami for Easton Lucas.


Villar is a good player that can put up great counting stats playing for non-contending clubs. He played pretty well for awful Astros clubs that moved on from him as soon as they were ready to win. His big year in Milwaukee came when they were actively rebuilding the roster with no expectations of winning. Then he turned down a contract extension to bet on himself and proceeded to play below average the next two years on Brewer clubs that were also trying to win. His subpar play on a contending club made his warts - namely his apparent low baseball IQ - stand out.

He has another good year in Baltimore playing for an awful team that he his warts can once again be largely hidden - Miami is a fantastic place for him to keep racking up empty stats.

I really pulled for Villar to put it all together as a Brewer because his physical tools are tantalizing for a team in search of a leadoff hitter who could wreak havoc on the bases...Villar's body of work points to him not quite realizing that potential and having a better overall career playing for teams that aren't playoff contenders. He got more than a fair shake in Milwaukee to become a longtime Brewer, but his performance suffered when wins/losses were the organizational priority.


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Offline  Re: Jonathan Villar waived
#53

Posted: December 03, 2019, 2:08 PM Post
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I don't know what to expect from Villar but to be fair saying he can only play for bad teams is a bit unjustified. His one bad year for the Brewers was injury riddled and then he wasn't given a full time job the next year. He is a hard guy to read but it seems like people are throwing a lot of narrative at him that really isn't based on any sort of concrete facts.


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Offline  Re: Jonathan Villar waived
#54

Posted: December 03, 2019, 2:09 PM Post
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Posts: 8497
Ennder said:
I don't know what to expect from Villar but to be fair saying he can only play for bad teams is a bit unjustified. His one bad year for the Brewers was injury riddled and then he wasn't given a full time job the next year. He is a hard guy to read but it seems like people are throwing a lot of narrative at him that really isn't based on any sort of concrete facts.


Welcome to the internet.


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Offline  Re: Jonathan Villar waived
#55

Posted: December 03, 2019, 2:15 PM Post
Posts: 12429
Ennder said:
I don't know what to expect from Villar but to be fair saying he can only play for bad teams is a bit unjustified. His one bad year for the Brewers was injury riddled and then he wasn't given a full time job the next year. He is a hard guy to read but it seems like people are throwing a lot of narrative at him that really isn't based on any sort of concrete facts.


It is grasping at straws level.


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Offline  Re: Jonathan Villar waived
#56

Posted: December 03, 2019, 2:58 PM Post
Posts: 3777
I like Villar, a lot. I think he is a very very good player. I tend to think athleticism is a little undervalued in MLB right now, which is ironic because it is overvalued in College Baseball (in my opinion).

On a personal level, Villar was super nice to my kid, and signed a Baseball for him. He is a guy my family will always root for.

I just don’t think Villar fits into the Stearns/Counsell M.O. right now. I’m OK with that.

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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Offline  Re: Jonathan Villar waived
#57

Posted: December 03, 2019, 4:12 PM Post
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Posts: 2260
Ennder said:
I don't know what to expect from Villar but to be fair saying he can only play for bad teams is a bit unjustified. His one bad year for the Brewers was injury riddled and then he wasn't given a full time job the next year. He is a hard guy to read but it seems like people are throwing a lot of narrative at him that really isn't based on any sort of concrete facts.


I don't know anything definitive about his clubhouse presence, but there is enough circumstantial evidence to suggest that he wasn't favored relative to, say, a Hernan Perez.

Also, it was apparent watching the games that he just wasn't in tune with the game situation at all.

Those aren't concrete facts, but they aren't exactly rampant internet speculations either.


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