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Josh Lindblom signs with Brewers - 3 years / $9.125 mil

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Offline  Re: Josh Lindblom signs with Brewers - 3 years / $9.125 mil
Posted: December 12, 2019, 12:07 PM Post
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It's like a 12 Step program. Step 1 is realizing we are NEVER in the running for $300m contracts. After that, you understand the economic jiggery pokery required to make the Crew competitive, which, as the last few years under Stearns has shown, we can be. Throwing stupid money, to appease the fanbase, at 'meh' players (ahoy, Mr Suppan), is not DS' M.O. which can only be a good thing.


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Offline  Re: Josh Lindblom signs with Brewers - 3 years / $9.125 mil
Posted: December 12, 2019, 12:18 PM Post
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patrickgpe said:
I really like this signing and think that Lindblom will be a solid rotation piece similar to Davies, but with a higher ceiling. With the prices of these below average starting pitchers getting $10+ million per year right now, we got an absolute steal. Looking forward to seeing what he can do in the rotation.


we just don't know. He has faced lesser competition in Korea, so its hard to compare. He wasn't very good in MLB, went to Korea and became their MVP. I think its worth the risk, but we don't know if he will succeed here or not.


He wasn't even actually that bad in the majors, to be fair. Huge caveat that he was mostly working in relief, but in 147.0 IP he has a 4.10 ERA, 4.27 FIP, 4.48 xFIP, 8.7 K/9, 3.7 BB/9.

Even factoring in the transition to starting, that's the profile of a pitcher who is a few changes away (primarily cutting down on walks) from being a #2/3 starter, and at least in the KBO he fixed the walk problem (1.3 BB/9 last season).


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Offline  Re: Josh Lindblom signs with Brewers - 3 years / $9.125 mil
Posted: December 12, 2019, 1:01 PM Post
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3and2Fastball said:
To suggest that the rotation is “good enough” because we made the postseason 2 years in a row is extremely perplexing to me.


Over the last three years our starting pitchers have posted a 94 ERA-, 10th best in baseball.

Combined with our bullpen, offense & defense that has been good enough for the team to win 271 games, 8th most in MLB. Same as the Cubs, more than the A's or Rays or Cardinals.

Our rotation has been good enough for us to miss the postseason in 2017 by 1 game when no one dreamed we would be that competitive, get us to Game 7 of the NLCS in 2018 & get us to the Wild Card game with a lead over the eventual WS Champs before our bullpen & defense lost the game in 2019.

Is that "good enough"? Clearly, individual mileage will vary, but for me personally I think it has been very entertaining to observe over the last few years.


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Offline  Re: Josh Lindblom signs with Brewers - 3 years / $9.125 mil
Posted: December 12, 2019, 1:05 PM Post
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SRB said:
patrickgpe said:
I really like this signing and think that Lindblom will be a solid rotation piece similar to Davies, but with a higher ceiling. With the prices of these below average starting pitchers getting $10+ million per year right now, we got an absolute steal. Looking forward to seeing what he can do in the rotation.


we just don't know. He has faced lesser competition in Korea, so its hard to compare. He wasn't very good in MLB, went to Korea and became their MVP. I think its worth the risk, but we don't know if he will succeed here or not.


He wasn't even actually that bad in the majors, to be fair. Huge caveat that he was mostly working in relief, but in 147.0 IP he has a 4.10 ERA, 4.27 FIP, 4.48 xFIP, 8.7 K/9, 3.7 BB/9.

Even factoring in the transition to starting, that's the profile of a pitcher who is a few changes away (primarily cutting down on walks) from being a #2/3 starter, and at least in the KBO he fixed the walk problem (1.3 BB/9 last season).

Looking at his MLB stats he actually performed better than I got the impression he did. My guess is he was able to refine his pitches and improve his control which are the differences between a reliever and middle rotation starter. He very well could become a solid 2-3 option for the next 3 years. I’m intrigued to see him pitch in 2020. This could be the biggest steal of the offseason.


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Offline  Re: Josh Lindblom signs with Brewers - 3 years / $9.125 mil
Posted: December 12, 2019, 1:15 PM Post
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Take his past stats and chuck them in the nearest dumpster. He isn't even the same guy anymore.


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Offline  Re: Josh Lindblom signs with Brewers - 3 years / $9.125 mil
Posted: December 12, 2019, 2:54 PM Post
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3and2Fastball said:
The lack of quality in the rotation is an extremely valid point. The objective is to win the
World Series. For 2 straight years the Brewers could have benefited greatly from having 2 more great, truly great pitchers in the postseason.

It has debated here frequently as to why the Brewers don’t have 2 more great pitchers. Can’t afford it. Spent the money on position players. Don’t do a good enough job developing pitchers. Etc... so I won’t go back into all of that...

To suggest that the rotation is “good enough” because we made the postseason 2 years in a row is extremely perplexing to me.


Obviously having more elite pitchers is a positive but I think you are letting last year taint 2018.

Our playoff run was Chacin Gio Miley Woodruff Burnes Hader Knebel and some Peralta. You have to look past the starters with this team. You can't really say the starters in 2018 failed their job. Nor did they fail their job last year when MKE had the lead vs the WS champs with the ball and game in Hader's hands.
Currently you have Woodruff Hader Peralta a question on Knebel, a role to be defined by Houser and Suter and a lot of pieces to add.
The expensive guy was a Chacin at 8 mil.

I think Rich Hill and Gio could fill the Miley Gio role. I think McHugh could fill the Burnes role (and clearly Burnes and Rasmussen have a shot at that as well).

There were a lot of problems that arose last year. Chacin falling flat and Knebel missing the year were the biggest two blows to this team. Burnes and Peralta starting poorly in the early season were the other major factors. It didn't pan out in 2019. It wasn't special in 2018. It just worked.

Basically, yeah more = better but flexibility and multiple pieces has let them cobble together the results you'd get from a 35 million dollar ace for a fraction on the price.


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Offline  Re: Josh Lindblom signs with Brewers - 3 years / $9.125 mil
Posted: December 12, 2019, 4:21 PM Post
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sveumrules said:
3and2Fastball said:
To suggest that the rotation is “good enough” because we made the postseason 2 years in a row is extremely perplexing to me.


Over the last three years our starting pitchers have posted a 94 ERA-, 10th best in baseball.

Combined with our bullpen, offense & defense that has been good enough for the team to win 271 games, 8th most in MLB. Same as the Cubs, more than the A's or Rays or Cardinals.

Our rotation has been good enough for us to miss the postseason in 2017 by 1 game when no one dreamed we would be that competitive, get us to Game 7 of the NLCS in 2018 & get us to the Wild Card game with a lead over the eventual WS Champs before our bullpen & defense lost the game in 2019.

Is that "good enough"? Clearly, individual mileage will vary, but for me personally I think it has been very entertaining to observe over the last few years.


Also, take away Jimmy Nelson's freak injury in 2017... and we're talking a whole different Crew.


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Offline  Re: Josh Lindblom signs with Brewers - 3 years / $9.125 mil
Posted: December 12, 2019, 9:24 PM Post
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Flippin' Martin Perez just got a $6 million guarantee. Who is criticizing this Lindblom deal? WHO?! [laughing]


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Offline  Re: Josh Lindblom signs with Brewers - 3yr/9.1mil
Posted: December 12, 2019, 10:19 PM Post
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I've never heard of this guy but I think this is a good deal.

[smile]


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Offline  Re: Josh Lindblom signs with Brewers - 3 years / $9.125 mil
Posted: December 12, 2019, 10:38 PM Post
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Look at the history of the Transactions forum. Success rate is very low when you look at all the starting pitchers people wanted via FA or trades, and how they turned out.

Funny thing though, when one...two...six of these guys don't pan out posters just go on the next name. Stearns doesn't have that luxury. If he throws 5 years/ $120mm at a big name starting pitcher and it doesn't work out, that money is spent. Oh, and by the way, no flexibility to fix it.

This shouldn't have to be explained every year, but it's a no-brainer to have several Lindbloms and Burnes rather than the tremendous risk of signing a big name pitcher.


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Offline  Re: Josh Lindblom signs with Brewers - 3 years / $9.125 mil
Posted: December 13, 2019, 7:54 AM Post
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3and2Fastball said:
The lack of quality in the rotation is an extremely valid point. The objective is to win the
World Series. For 2 straight years the Brewers could have benefited greatly from having 2 more great, truly great pitchers in the postseason.

It has debated here frequently as to why the Brewers don’t have 2 more great pitchers. Can’t afford it. Spent the money on position players. Don’t do a good enough job developing pitchers. Etc... so I won’t go back into all of that...

To suggest that the rotation is “good enough” because we made the postseason 2 years in a row is extremely perplexing to me.


The thing is (and this is more of a general comment than directed at you), some people talk about this like it's so easy. We could have benefitted from having 2 more great pitchers in the postseason? Of course we could have. This isn't unique to us. Every one of the other 8 playoff teams that didn't win the World Series could have benefited from 2 more great pitchers.

I don't think that anyone is suggesting the rotation is good enough just because we made the playoffs two years in a row, but rather that Stearns is doing a really good job given the limitations that he has to put a contending team out there.

If you look at the top rotations in baseball, almost all are supported by either heavy payrolls or really good pitcher farm development. A team like the Rays is unique in having made a couple really savvy trades and signings recently that have happened to pan out. But they don't always. We were obviously hoping Corbin Burnes would be our Tyler Glasnow and unfortunately that didn't happen, not yet. But you just don't know. I understand why they wanted to find out. Yes, you can dabble in free agency, but the days of throwing 3/30 at a decent proven Randy Wolf type and calling it a day are long gone. These solid proven affordable starters that people want to go just go out and sign simply don't exist, which is why guys like Lindblom are such great guys to take a chance on. The Tanner Roarks of the world are getting 12M a year. That 5/80 we gave to Cain a couple years ago? That doesn't buy jack for starting pitching in this market. Not without questions and risks, anyway.

We haven't been good enough in developing our own pitching over the years, that is true. But that's something that takes years, so I'm certainly not going to put that on the GM who has been here for 4 years. We'll see how his first generation of guys, Burnes, Ashby, Rasmussen, etc. turn out.


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Offline  Re: Josh Lindblom signs with Brewers - 3 years / $9.125 mil
Posted: December 13, 2019, 11:14 AM Post
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The 2019 Milwaukee Brewers had a starter fWAR of 8.7
The 2018 Milwaukee Brewers had a starter fWAR of 8.7

Both Teams played in the post-season.

Two World Series winners from recent past had lower starter's fWAR: KC Royals (8.6 in 2015) and SF Giants (8.5 in 2014)

It should be clear right now what David Stearn's idea of an optimal starting rotation will look like.

This signing is great as it fit's in with his overall strategy of finding value and provides a cost controlled piece that either slots into a rotation spot or is another of the starter turned RP that have been very successful for the Brewers the last 2 years.

In a world where Tanner Roark can get a $24M contract, this is a steal, steal, steal, steal, steal...

JosephC said:
Stearns probably had no interest in getting a C because the Brewers need a C. It makes much more sense to trade for 3B when it's not needed, and then move the other 3B to 2B, then trade for a 2B, but since the 3B is now at 2B, then the new 2B goes to SS


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Offline  Re: Josh Lindblom signs with Brewers - 3 years / $9.125 mil
Posted: December 13, 2019, 11:46 AM Post
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This reminds me of the last time I needed Windshield Washer Fluid.

At a department store, they were charging $13 for a gallon of it, stating that it was All-Season.

I balked at that price, so instead I headed to the Dollar Store and bought two half gallons at $1 each.

I saved $11 and was happy.

I mean, it freezes to the windshield at times, but most of the time it gets the job done.

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Offline  Re: Josh Lindblom signs with Brewers - 3 years / $9.125 mil
Posted: December 13, 2019, 12:13 PM Post
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I know this isn't really on baseball topic but I don't think the point of all season fluid is to prevent it freezing on the windshield. Regular fluid tends to freeze up internally so it doesn't dispense at all at low temps. Which has absolutely happened to me and is why I keep a jug of the all season stuff stored for winter.


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Offline  Re: Josh Lindblom signs with Brewers - 3 years / $9.125 mil
Posted: December 13, 2019, 1:58 PM Post
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SeaBass said:
I know this isn't really on baseball topic but I don't think the point of all season fluid is to prevent it freezing on the windshield. Regular fluid tends to freeze up internally so it doesn't dispense at all at low temps. Which has absolutely happened to me and is why I keep a jug of the all season stuff stored for winter.


So what you are saying is that I could continue to have success with my bargain bin Windshield Fluid, but there is also a good chance that it will become a complete and utter disaster?

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Offline  Re: Josh Lindblom signs with Brewers - 3 years / $9.125 mil
Posted: December 13, 2019, 2:21 PM Post
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or split the difference and 'water' down one with the other.


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Offline  Re: Josh Lindblom signs with Brewers - 3 years / $9.125 mil
Posted: December 13, 2019, 2:48 PM Post
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A Swing and A Drive said:
SeaBass said:
I know this isn't really on baseball topic but I don't think the point of all season fluid is to prevent it freezing on the windshield. Regular fluid tends to freeze up internally so it doesn't dispense at all at low temps. Which has absolutely happened to me and is why I keep a jug of the all season stuff stored for winter.


So what you are saying is that I could continue to have success with my bargain bin Windshield Fluid, but there is also a good chance that it will become a complete and utter disaster?


I think correct and hopefully you have saved enough with the bargain bin fluid to get a steering wheel cover and a car wash. If the fluid fails, the steering wheel cover and car wash don't really matter... but if the bargain fluid holds up, boy are you in for a sweet ride [smile]


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Offline  Re: Josh Lindblom signs with Brewers - 3 years / $9.125 mil
Posted: December 14, 2019, 8:42 PM Post
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This is Stearns’ 5th off-season with the team since taking over the team operations in the Fall of 2015. Is this three year deal for Lindblom only the third time he has given out a free agent deal that surpassed two years? Thames signed a three year guarantee and Cain signed a five year contract. Other than that I can only think of two deals that were two years in length (Chacin and Albers). Beyond that I believe every free agent deal the Brewers have done since Stearns took over have been one year deals.

Am I missing any additional free agent deals that were greater than one year?

It’s sort of amazing that they operate almost exclusively on short term deals in free agency, and two of the longest contracts have been for players coming back to MLB from the KBO.


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Offline  Re: Josh Lindblom signs with Brewers - 3 years / $9.125 mil
Posted: December 14, 2019, 8:49 PM Post
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To be technical Jeffress was a 3 year deal but it had team options every year. (I believe)
Was he in charge of the Anderson arby buy out?


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Offline  Re: Josh Lindblom signs with Brewers - 3 years / $9.125 mil
Posted: December 14, 2019, 9:08 PM Post
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TJseven7 said:
To be technical Jeffress was a 3 year deal but it had team options every year. (I believe)
Was he in charge of the Anderson arby buy out?

I was just referring to guaranteed free agent contracts. With Jeffress he obviously traded him away and then traded back for him, but did he sign him to a multi-year deal as a free agent? I didn’t think so, but I could be mistaken.

Edit: Found it (Link), the Jeffress deal was considered a one year contract with two club options. So technically just a one year guarantee.


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