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Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?

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Offline  Re: Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?
Posted: February 08, 2020, 10:22 AM Post
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Yeah I'd look more at the aspects that don't factor in playing time, which for PECOTA would be DRC+ (hitting) and DRA (pitching). So while PECOTA team projections aren't out yet, the spreadsheet with individual projections is.

Quite interesting to see that it projects Luis Urias as having the 3rd most WARP among the Brewers position players, with above-average offense. And that it's not a big Hiura believer; which is also pointed out in one of their articles about surprisingly highly or lowly projected players. In Hiuras case it's a combination of on the one hand the sophomore slump effect that projection systems will have by nature and which I would imagine is stronger for someone like Hiura with a grand total of only ~1200 professiona PAs to project from. And on the other hand the very high whiff rate (and thus K rate)and shifting profile; basically it doesn't believe that he can maintain both the power and the contact.

On the pitching side what stands out is that PECOTA really likes Woodruff. Like a lot. Projects him as the 18th most valuable pitcher. Hader, Peralta, Lauer and Burnes make up the rest of the top 5 in WARP. Suter, Claudio, Black, Rasmussen are all relievers who grade out as well above average on their pitching metric DRA-. That Hader ranks highest there with a 59 DRA- is probably not a surprise. Or that Woodruff is second of the players on the team with 83. But more surprising perhaps that Jay Jackson (Since projections, like ZiPS does too for example, includes players who were there at the end of the season) would have been 2nd with 79 DRA-. And yet more surprising would be the third lowest DRA- on the team; I don't think he'd be one of the first 10 guesses for anyone; J.P Feyereisen. Also interesting is how the projections differ on Josh Lindblom; ZiPS and Steamer has him around a league-average starter with a solid ~2 WAR. PECOTA has him at almost exactly replacement level.

Anyway, hard to get an overview from the spreadsheets really, so looking forward to Monday. But from a glance I would think that while ZiPS and Steamer projected the Cubs, Cardinals, Brewers and Reds all within a few wins of eachother, PECOTA look to be lower on the Brewers.


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Online  Re: Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?
Posted: February 08, 2020, 10:32 AM Post
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These are the win ranges I would place each of the NL postseason contenders in at the moment...

95-105: LAD
90-100: WAS, ATL
80-90: STL, MIL, CHI, CIN, NYM, PHI, ARI

At this far too early juncture my best guesses would be LAD wins the west, then WAS/ATL get the east & a wild card. I feel like ARI has the inside track on the other wild card since the west will likely be the weakest overall division, though SD should be interesting with all the youngsters.

It looks like ZIPS has the four NL Central contenders within about five wins of each other, so we'll probably need a hundred sixty two tree games or so to figure it all out again.


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Offline  Re: Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?
Posted: February 08, 2020, 3:32 PM Post
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While the PECOTA projections don’t appear they will be overly kind to the Brewers on the whole, the Clay Davenport standings projections currently have the Brewers at 85 wins overall, and 2nd place in the NL Central while just one game behind the Reds.


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Offline  Re: Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?
Posted: February 11, 2020, 6:54 PM Post
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To be a contender? Absolutely. To actually win the division? Time will tell.


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Offline  Re: Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?
Posted: February 11, 2020, 7:19 PM Post
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If we are stopping at this point MKE needs to stay insanely healthy in the pitching staff or their chances of winning the division will evaporate.

I absolutely hate sitting teetering on this edge. Joc Stripling Bettis and Cashner would have me feeling warm and fuzzy. That's 13 mil roughly.


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Offline  Re: Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?
Posted: February 11, 2020, 10:36 PM Post
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TJseven7 said:
If we are stopping at this point MKE needs to stay insanely healthy in the pitching staff or their chances of winning the division will evaporate.

I absolutely hate sitting teetering on this edge. Joc Stripling Bettis and Cashner would have me feeling warm and fuzzy. That's 13 mil roughly.


I wish they had signed one more guy too but overall this one kind of confuses me. The rotation is in a much better spot than it was this time last year. There is more depth and the players are more proven. Going into the season with Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta was scary as heck as not one of them had seen success as a starter yet. I don't understand why so many were so high on the rotation last year yet so low this year. This is basically the same quality rotation that we have seen from the team each of the past 3 or 4 seasons only with more depth this year.


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Offline  Re: Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?
Posted: February 11, 2020, 10:52 PM Post
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Ennder said:
TJseven7 said:
If we are stopping at this point MKE needs to stay insanely healthy in the pitching staff or their chances of winning the division will evaporate.

I absolutely hate sitting teetering on this edge. Joc Stripling Bettis and Cashner would have me feeling warm and fuzzy. That's 13 mil roughly.


I wish they had signed one more guy too but overall this one kind of confuses me. The rotation is in a much better spot than it was this time last year. There is more depth and the players are more proven. Going into the season with Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta was scary as heck as not one of them had seen success as a starter yet. I don't understand why so many were so high on the rotation last year yet so low this year. This is basically the same quality rotation that we have seen from the team each of the past 3 or 4 seasons only with more depth this year.


Last year we had depth and high upside young guys. Chase Anderson wasn't even in the rotation to start the year. I don't know who the 6th starter would be this year, but whoever it is is a far bigger question mark than Chase. Granted, I don't think the actual talent is thinner this year, and it might even be a bit better, but Davies, Anderson and Chacin reliably ate up a lot of innings for us the last few years and had a more proven major league starters resume than the guys that we have now.


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Offline  Re: Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?
Posted: February 11, 2020, 11:23 PM Post
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Oxy said:
Ennder said:
TJseven7 said:
If we are stopping at this point MKE needs to stay insanely healthy in the pitching staff or their chances of winning the division will evaporate.

I absolutely hate sitting teetering on this edge. Joc Stripling Bettis and Cashner would have me feeling warm and fuzzy. That's 13 mil roughly.


I wish they had signed one more guy too but overall this one kind of confuses me. The rotation is in a much better spot than it was this time last year. There is more depth and the players are more proven. Going into the season with Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta was scary as heck as not one of them had seen success as a starter yet. I don't understand why so many were so high on the rotation last year yet so low this year. This is basically the same quality rotation that we have seen from the team each of the past 3 or 4 seasons only with more depth this year.


Last year we had depth and high upside young guys. Chase Anderson wasn't even in the rotation to start the year. I don't know who the 6th starter would be this year, but whoever it is is a far bigger question mark than Chase. Granted, I don't think the actual talent is thinner this year, and it might even be a bit better, but Davies, Anderson and Chacin reliably ate up a lot of innings for us the last few years and had a more proven major league starters resume than the guys that we have now.


This. Last year they had Chacin Davies and Anderson to anchor this rotation. Chacin coming off a great year and 2 guys who had done good work for years. Now its Woodruff and um hmm. Anderson is more injury prone than any of the top 3 last year. Lindblom is completely unknown compared to the top 3 of last year. Lauer simply hasn't been as good as the top 3 of last year.

Also last year there was a lot of hope in Woodruff Burnes and Peralta. 2 out of 3 were bad and that tarnished them a lot. Is there the same hope in Lauer Lindblom and Houser? Woodruff then is Houser now. Does not mean results be the same. Lindblom is no more of a sure thing than Burnes or Peralta were. Lauer is a safer bet I'll admit.

I think the established 3 of Chacin Davies Anderson beats the "established" 3 of Woodruff Lauer Anderson due to results and health.
I think the bottom 3 of Burnes Woodruff Peralta was no less certain than the bottom 3 of Lindblom Houser and Peralta.

As for my list of 3 pitchers and confusing you.
Woodruff Stripling Anderson Lauer Lindblom
Leaves Houser as next man up in the pen. (I also like Hader Houser Peralta Suter Cashner as 2 IP options, Phelps Knebel Black as 1s)
Bettis as 1st SP out of AAA
Cashner at reliever seems very promising to me and there are 2 spots where the guy we'll go with should and could start in AAA.

I want the stashed Miley in the minors. (Bettis) I want the Pom before people realize he's Pom. (Cashner) So we don't have to trade for them or suck for 2-3 months until we get them.

I really don't care about Freitas TWilliams RRodriguez and Yardley. 2 are 4A. 2 are mediocre low ceiling cast offs and 1 of those cast offs is redundant in our system.

The magic of this model is in its depth. BE AS DEEP AS POSSIBLE!


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Offline  Re: Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?
Posted: February 12, 2020, 9:39 AM Post
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Oxy said:
Last year we had depth and high upside young guys. Chase Anderson wasn't even in the rotation to start the year. I don't know who the 6th starter would be this year, but whoever it is is a far bigger question mark than Chase. Granted, I don't think the actual talent is thinner this year, and it might even be a bit better, but Davies, Anderson and Chacin reliably ate up a lot of innings for us the last few years and had a more proven major league starters resume than the guys that we have now.


The 6th and 7th guys are the guys who were actually in the rotation last year! That isn't less depth, it is more.

I am more confident in Woodruff this year than I was any pitcher in the rotation last year. I'm as confident in Lauer this year as I was any of those guys last year. When healthy I am more confident in Anderson than any of those guys last year. I'm more confident in Lindblom and Houser than I was the 3 rookies last year. Last year's rotation was terrifying, this years is much more comfortable.


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Offline  Re: Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?
Posted: February 12, 2020, 11:55 AM Post
Posts: 4760
Ennder said:
Oxy said:
Last year we had depth and high upside young guys. Chase Anderson wasn't even in the rotation to start the year. I don't know who the 6th starter would be this year, but whoever it is is a far bigger question mark than Chase. Granted, I don't think the actual talent is thinner this year, and it might even be a bit better, but Davies, Anderson and Chacin reliably ate up a lot of innings for us the last few years and had a more proven major league starters resume than the guys that we have now.


The 6th and 7th guys are the guys who were actually in the rotation last year! That isn't less depth, it is more.

I am more confident in Woodruff this year than I was any pitcher in the rotation last year. I'm as confident in Lauer this year as I was any of those guys last year. When healthy I am more confident in Anderson than any of those guys last year. I'm more confident in Lindblom and Houser than I was the 3 rookies last year. Last year's rotation was terrifying, this years is much more comfortable.


Boom. Agreed. Nailed what I've been arguing.
Woodruff>Chacin
Lauer>Davies
Anderson>Burnes
Lindblom=Peralta
Houser=Woodruff. When comparing staff starting 2019 vs staff for 2020. Peralta and Burnes are still on the team. Suter is back from TJ. Kneble will be back shortly from TJ. Im only skeptical of 1b/3b heading in to this season vs last, but we accomplished the playoffs with that area of Strength heading in to 2019 being a trainwreck.
Imagine a full season of Woodruff, Yelich, & Hiura? That's a lot a value added every time they take the field. Urias maybe at some point embarrasses the production Arcia has given to the team. Should feel far more excited than the vibe going around here.


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Offline  Re: Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?
Posted: February 12, 2020, 8:25 PM Post
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Going into last year Peralta and Burnes were question marks with high upside. The optimism around those two guys was 180 degrees different than the feeling those guys give you coming into this year.

We'll see what happens. It's going to be fun to see how it all shakes out this Spring.


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Offline  Re: Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?
Posted: February 12, 2020, 9:30 PM Post
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brewcrewdue80 said:
Lauer>Davies


That's why we got 5 years of Lauer for 2 of Davies?

brewcrewdue80 said:
Lindblom=Peralta
Houser=Woodruff.


If that 1st part plays out that way we are in trouble.
I don't believe the 2nd line at all.


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Offline  Re: Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?
Posted: February 12, 2020, 10:00 PM Post
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I love Woodruff but how many innings can we realistically expect out of him? He threw 125 or so including playoff game last year and never threw more than that in the minors. Can he be counted on for 180 IP?

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?
Posted: February 12, 2020, 10:03 PM Post
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Oxy said:
Going into last year Peralta and Burnes were question marks with high upside. The optimism around those two guys was 180 degrees different than the feeling those guys give you coming into this year.

We'll see what happens. It's going to be fun to see how it all shakes out this Spring.


It was misplaced optimism though. Last years rotation was a disaster waiting to happen, this years is much less risky.


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Offline  Re: Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?
Posted: February 12, 2020, 10:04 PM Post
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TJseven7 said:
brewcrewdue80 said:
Lauer>Davies


That's why we got 5 years of Lauer for 2 of Davies?

Yeah because it was just a trade of those 2 guys, weak.

brewcrewdue80 said:
Lindblom=Peralta
Houser=Woodruff.


If that 1st part plays out that way we are in trouble.
I don't believe the 2nd line at all.


He is speaking expectations going into seasons. Yes I have more faith in Houser+Lindblom this year than I had with Peralta+Woodruff last year.


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Offline  Re: Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?
Posted: February 12, 2020, 10:42 PM Post
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Failed MLB pitcher goes to Korea, works on things, gets a cheap deal to come back to MLB.

“I feel comfortable going into the season with him.”

It’s OK to be optimistic, but there shouldn’t be any sort of comfort whatsoever unless Lindblom was our depth guy. Let me know what flavor kool aid gets me to that position please. Did we just plain skip over the fact he tried KBO —> MLB once already and it was an unmitigated disaster?


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Offline  Re: Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?
Posted: February 13, 2020, 2:52 AM Post
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TJseven7 said:
brewcrewdue80 said:
Lauer>Davies


That's why we got 5 years of Lauer for 2 of Davies?

brewcrewdue80 said:
Lindblom=Peralta
Houser=Woodruff.


If that 1st part plays out that way we are in trouble.
I don't believe the 2nd line at all.


Grisham was part of the deal and I think his upside outweighed their view on Urias' upside. Davies for Urias Grisham for Lauer.
This is my feelings of heading in to the season vs last season. ThoughI was super confident in Woodruff&Burnes.

Superfly re:Lindblom he's improved from the previous stint where that wasn't all that great. Last 2 seasons were much better than his 1st two. Where Im upside in him is handling a seasons workload. If healthy he should last 33 starts. Peralta couldnt do that last season, not sure he could this season. The MO for last season was starters going 5IP. I think we have a shot with three pitching in the 6th inning. Workload=less on bullpen.

Also Woodruff had. 158IP in 2016.


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Offline  Re: Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?
Posted: February 13, 2020, 4:33 AM Post
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homer said:
I love Woodruff but how many innings can we realistically expect out of him? He threw 125 or so including playoff game last year and never threw more than that in the minors. Can he be counted on for 180 IP?


Innings limits are largely age based these days. Teams don’t follow the strict guidelines they once did. At 27 they likely wouldn’t limit him. I’d be concerned about his overall effectiveness if he started pushing 180+ just because he isn’t used to that.


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Offline  Re: Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?
Posted: February 13, 2020, 9:58 AM Post
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When we start putting real expectations and predictions down for the season near the end of Spring Training, my surprise player will most certainly be Corbin Burnes. Corbin Burnes will be the 2020 version of the 2019 Brandon Woodruff. Yes, that is optimistic but the stuff is just too good.


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Offline  Re: Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?
Posted: February 13, 2020, 10:03 AM Post
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TJseven7 said:
brewcrewdue80 said:
Lauer>Davies


That's why we got 5 years of Lauer for 2 of Davies?

brewcrewdue80 said:
Lindblom=Peralta
Houser=Woodruff.


If that 1st part plays out that way we are in trouble.
I don't believe the 2nd line at all.


Houser = Woodruff? hmmmm

Lauer > Davis, based on what?

Lindblom=Peralta Then why did we need Lindblom since we already have Peralta?

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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