LambeauLeap1250 WSSP


  
Go to page Previous  1 ... 5, 6, 7, 8, 9  Next  [ 163 posts ]  New Topic   Add Reply

Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?

Author Message
Online  Re: Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?
Posted: February 13, 2020, 10:04 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 11099
Ennder said:
Oxy said:
Going into last year Peralta and Burnes were question marks with high upside. The optimism around those two guys was 180 degrees different than the feeling those guys give you coming into this year.

We'll see what happens. It's going to be fun to see how it all shakes out this Spring.


It was misplaced optimism though. Last years rotation was a disaster waiting to happen, this years is much less risky.


I don't see much difference i the risk factor to be honest...

This year's rotation looks no better than last year's imo.

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?
Posted: February 13, 2020, 11:20 AM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 5742
I think much of last year's rotation going into spring training had a lot of potential, but little experience (high risk/high reward), while this year probably has a little less ceiling, with a higher floor (lower risk/lower reward). Knock on wood, but I don't think anyone will completely implode, but we probably won't have anyone step up and be a "true ace" starter. We do still have Burnes, Peralta, and others who have the potential to be better than average MLB starters. They'll just be in AAA or the bullpen "proving themselves."

Just my feelings here, but I think Woodruff will be solid if he stays healthy, Lauer will be a decent middle-of-the-rotation guy, and Anderson will be this year's Miley as he continues to throw more cutters. Lindblom and Houser are my wildcards. I think Lindblom will eat up a lot of innings, but I think he has the greatest variance (could be surprisingly good, or not-so-good). I really hope Houser builds on last year and develops into a solid middle-of-the-rotation guy, but I think he may end up in the pen. I think that if Burnes starts the year in AAA and re-builds his confidence, he can be the guy who will come up and give us a boost mid-season and become a solid MLB starter.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?
Posted: February 13, 2020, 11:22 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 11190
turborickey said:

Houser = Woodruff? hmmmm

Lauer > Davis, based on what?

Lindblom=Peralta Then why did we need Lindblom since we already have Peralta?



Again we are talking about how people felt going into last year vs going into this year. Yes I'm more confident in Houser going into 2020 than I was in Woodruff going into 2019. Davis was coming off of a season where he was a mix of injured and just terrible, Lauer is coming off of back to back decent seasons. Peralta hadn't shown anything going into last year and we were worried he was going to have to move to the bullpen plus he wasn't stretched out to pitch a full season of innings.

Last year I commented before the season that the only SP in the rotation I had any faith at all in was Chacin and then I was ok with Anderson for a backup. This year we have Anderson, Woodruff, Lauer all as people I am comfortable with and I'm not really worried that much about Lindblom. He has risk just like a pitcher coming out of the minors but he is also stretched out unlike a guy from the minors. Pitchers coming from Korea have generally been successful in the majors.

I just am honestly surprised that people were so much higher on last years rotation. This one just looks so much less risky on paper that I don't understand it. Anyway this isn't going anywhere so I'll just let it drop.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?
Posted: February 13, 2020, 11:34 AM Post
Posts: 5528
Location: New Berlin, WI
https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/whic ... g-winters/

Here's an incredibly damning indictment on the Brewers offseason. This guy held no punches, completely skewered our offseason.

I'll leave his comments on the Brewers to your interpretation, but in what universe did the Cubs not have one of the worst offseasons of them all? They did literally nothing. While the rest of the NL Central got better(except the Pirates), they just figured they'd swap out a good manager(aside from bullpen management) with a rookie manager and still be able to compete? Nobody on their team aside from Hoerner and some bullpen arms have much upside over there, most of their guys are more likely to regress than improve from their 2019 seasons...especially their rotation. The teams that sold, did so as part of a strategy and the moves generally worked...the Cubs acted like a team that had no strategy and didn't really know what to do.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Online  Re: Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?
Posted: February 13, 2020, 11:53 AM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 11671
I didn't think that was a skewering.

I did find it funny he used a 2016 offseason quote about Oakland as a comparison for this offseason for the Brewers seeing as the A's went on to win 97 games three seasons later.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?
Posted: February 13, 2020, 11:56 AM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 5742
KeithStone53151 said:
https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/which-mlb-teams-had-the-worst-offseasons-red-sox-astros-cardinals-make-list-of-disappointing-winters/

Here's an incredibly damning indictment on the Brewers offseason. This guy held no punches, completely skewered our offseason.

I'll leave his comments on the Brewers to your interpretation, but in what universe did the Cubs not have one of the worst offseasons of them all? They did literally nothing. While the rest of the NL Central got better(except the Pirates), they just figured they'd swap out a good manager(aside from bullpen management) with a rookie manager and still be able to compete? Nobody on their team aside from Hoerner and some bullpen arms have much upside over there, most of their guys are more likely to regress than improve from their 2019 seasons...especially their rotation. The teams that sold, did so as part of a strategy and the moves generally worked...the Cubs acted like a team that had no strategy and didn't really know what to do.


I don't think it's incredible damning. After all, losing "staff anchor Kyle Davies" will really hurt us :-)

I don't think it's a bad write-up of the Brewers, but I do think the author falls into the group that thinks less money paid out is always a bad thing. For someone scrutinizing cost savings, you would think he would've been harder on the Cubs, who didn't just "not trade a core piece," but instead lost two of their best players (Hamels and Castellanos) to free agency and are still discussing trading away other pieces. That is a lot more cost savings than the Brewers are guilty of.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?
Posted: February 13, 2020, 11:58 AM Post
Posts: 1101
superfly said:
Did we just plain skip over the fact he tried KBO —> MLB once already and it was an unmitigated disaster?


No, but we also realise the two are not the same. He wasn't very good before going to Korea the first time, and not very good *in* Korea that time. His second stint in Korea he changed his repertoire, and the results changed with it; More Ks, fewer BB, fewer hits allowed, fewer HRs. The KBO is worse than MLB, but he didn't go from a AAAA player to the best pitcher in KBO only by virtue of facing easier opposition. He got better, a lot better. Exactly what kind of MLB pitcher that translates to is hard to say, but I don't think it requires drinking any kool-aid to believe he can be a good pitcher for us this year. That doesn't mean being the kind of 6.5 IP/start sub-3 ERA pitcher he was in Korea the last two years, but I think there's a very good chance he's at least going to be the kind of pitcher Anderson and Davies have been over the last few years, probably a safe bet that he'll throw more innings too. And for a lot less money.

Warning Track Power said:
When we start putting real expectations and predictions down for the season near the end of Spring Training, my surprise player will most certainly be Corbin Burnes. Corbin Burnes will be the 2020 version of the 2019 Brandon Woodruff. Yes, that is optimistic but the stuff is just too good.


The kind of season Woodruff had might be hard to match, but I agree wholeheartedly with the idea that Burnes will have a good season. He's just too good not to. He wasn't good last year, mainly throwing too many meatball fastballs, and not finding success with the curve. But that slider was still a fantastic weapon. While Burnes has a fantastic ability at missing bats with all of his pitches, that slider stands out. Hitters swung and missed on that slider 58% of the time he threw it; now I don't know of a way to directly compare, but looking around at players with good sliders it was by far the highest I could find. Scherzer at 50% was the second highest I found, followed by Will Smith, Castillo and Hader all around 46-47%. Guys like deGrom, Cole, Kershaw, Verlander all cluster between 35-40%.

While the above is one pitch, and is just a part of what makes a pitcher, missing bats is still a hugely important part. Burnes is one of the best in the game at it. His issue has been that when he doesn't miss bats, the ball gets hit hard. Part of that is location and sequencing, that can improve. But it was also a chunk of bad luck in addition to that; he got hit hard, but also got unlucky with the result of those hard hit balls. So while it may look strange to say that a 9 ERA pitcher is only some small tweaks away from being a league average (or better) pitcher I still believe that to be the case. And that even the way he did pitch in 2019 was like a 5 ERA type of pitcher. I've been saying the same thing since even early last seaon, and while the turnaround is taking longer than I expected (which I think could well be in part psychological after the way he was shelled early on) I expect to see good results sooner rather than later.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?
Posted: February 13, 2020, 11:59 AM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 8648
monty57 said:
[

I don't think it's incredible damning. After all, losing "staff anchor Kyle Davies" will really hurt us :-).


Yep. Very much a 'national sportswriter who doesn't know the Brewers at all sees Brewers didn't sign any big-name free agents and assumes they had a terrible offseason as a result' article.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?
Posted: February 13, 2020, 12:19 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 3422
Location: California
PeaveyFury said:
monty57 said:
[

I don't think it's incredible damning. After all, losing "staff anchor Kyle Davies" will really hurt us :-).


Yep. Very much a 'national sportswriter who doesn't know the Brewers at all sees Brewers didn't sign any big-name free agents and assumes they had a terrible offseason as a result' article.

It's amazing to me how writers like this continue to be employed. Literally, it takes about 15 minutes of research to really understand and breakdown the Brewers offseason and see how the payroll drop makes sense (not re-signing Grandal @ $18m and Moose at @ $16m per). Yes, losing those players hurt for 2020. However, signing those specific players at those specific salaries would have been albatrosses for the Brewers, possibly beginning in 2021.

Fortunately, The Athletic (minus Jim Bowden) has pretty solid writers who understand the nuance of baseball economics on small markets.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Online  Re: Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?
Posted: February 13, 2020, 5:27 PM Post
Posts: 2826
Ennder said:
Oxy said:
Going into last year Peralta and Burnes were question marks with high upside. The optimism around those two guys was 180 degrees different than the feeling those guys give you coming into this year.

We'll see what happens. It's going to be fun to see how it all shakes out this Spring.


It was misplaced optimism though. Last years rotation was a disaster waiting to happen, this years is much less risky.


I think beliefs like this are being fueled by hindsight and hope.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?
Posted: February 13, 2020, 8:17 PM Post
Posts: 4781
turborickey said:
TJseven7 said:
brewcrewdue80 said:
Lauer>Davies


That's why we got 5 years of Lauer for 2 of Davies?

brewcrewdue80 said:
Lindblom=Peralta
Houser=Woodruff.


If that 1st part plays out that way we are in trouble.
I don't believe the 2nd line at all.


Houser = Woodruff? hmmmm

Lauer > Davis, based on what?

Lindblom=Peralta Then why did we need Lindblom since we already have Peralta?


This is in comparison as noted by Ender above heading in to 2019.

Davies has had a career FIP of 4.22 It was 4.39 in 2018 in only 66IP and carried a 4.77ERA.
Lauer has a career 4.35 FIP 4.23 in 2019. 149.2IP with a 4.45 ERA. I posted awhile back at Coors he is awful, worse than Burnes last season in terms of stats. I'm not going to figure it out again, I think his ERA would have been below 3.55? Removing 11innings there. Brewers will only have 1game that they could foolishly start him in Coors in 2020 or his stats continue on what it's been outside of that Field.

Houser and Woodruff. Well both pitched games as a Starter and Relieved games in the bullpen the season prior. A little reverse though as Houser has more starts less RP compared to Woodruff's less starts and more RP. That should indicate that as a Starter heading in to 2020 we have a better idea what Houser should produce than Woodruff did coming in to 2019. And in the larger starting sample Houser had a better ERA than Woodruff did.

Lindblom equals Peralta. Well in this one I'm kinda putting Lindblom to Peralta's equal because his arm should last through a full season. You're looking at the #5 spot going in to 2019 with Peralta. So in that fact I just hope for an ERA below 4.5 in a full season of starts. Will he do it? We'll find out. If not you know the fall back is Peralta and Peralta Equals Peralta. lol.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?
Posted: February 17, 2020, 8:19 PM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 6884
The Brewers have now also added Brock Holt to the mix. If nothing else the Brewers should shake their “stars and scrubs” stigma of the past. They have added a whole bunch of league average type players including spots they can platoon to likely play a little better than league average. It’s certainly interesting, I guess we’ll see if it actually works.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Online  Re: Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?
Posted: February 18, 2020, 9:48 AM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 11671
Eye Black said:
The Brewers have now also added Brock Holt to the mix. If nothing else the Brewers should shake their “stars and scrubs” stigma of the past. They have added a whole bunch of league average type players including spots they can platoon to likely play a little better than league average. It’s certainly interesting, I guess we’ll see if it actually works.


Yeah it certainly has made the team more interesting that's for sure. Kind of a fascinating way to build a roster. Works on paper at least. If Urias takes off this year they may have a really nice offense. They might even without him taking off.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?
Posted: February 19, 2020, 3:41 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 3479
Location: Flower Mound, TX
My honest answer to the question? I don't know. The Brewers front office was highly successful with an outlier approach once before when they came up just shy of the World Series; they bet on a pitching staff heavily reliant on the bullpen, less so on the rotation. It almost got them an American....whoops, National League pennant for the first time (I'll never get used to that [laughing]).

I've loved baseball with an insatiable passion since I was eight years old. I've read more books, watched more games and documentaries, and done more statistical analyses than I feel comfortable admitting to. If there's one thing I've learned, it's that the game is constantly evolving. No two years are exactly alike. That evolution isn't always apparent at the start of a new season. Some changes are drastic. Others more nuanced, and the variables become more pronounced over time. Some teams have the resources to spend greatly on top free agents. Other franchises have to get creative, and hope to catch lightning in a bottle.

I feel we have smart people in positions of authority. I trust David Stearns. I think Craig Counsell is a damned fine manager. Not perfect. Sometimes he makes us all a bit nuts, but show me a Major League Manager that hasn't made their fanbase a bit batty from time to time. I trust our use of analytics, and I think that, while we're not going to knock anybody over with our off season moves, I believe David has put together a team of misfit toys that can compete for a playoff spot. Pardon the Moneyball nod there, please.

There are smart people on this forum. Smart people that know a hell of a lot about baseball. I might disagree with opinions, from time to time, but it's done with respect. There's a great deal of baseball knowledge, and if you guys are cautiously optimistic, I see no reason to voice a contrarian opinion.

One thing's for sure. It's going to be an interesting season.

There are three things America will be known for 2000 years from now when they study this civilization: the Constitution, jazz music and baseball. They're the three most beautifully designed things this culture has ever produced. Gerald Early


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Online  Re: Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?
Posted: February 19, 2020, 3:56 AM Post
Posts: 2826
The 'stache said:
I believe David has put together a team of misfit toys that can compete for a playoff spot. Pardon the Moneyball nod there, please.


I feel like the Holt signing really kicked me over the edge on the Moneyball line of thinking as well.

Narvaez can't field
Sogard Gyorko Holt?
Smoak Braun at 1st.
Lindblom from KBO and Phelps off the forgotten heap.
Anderson a notorious injury prone pitcher.

Team looks to platoon an infield. They signed a ton of guys and other than Garcia no ones paid over 5 mil. The entire infield is under 5 mil per except Braun.
I stated on the lineup thread. 1250 ish PA by guys under 650 OPS last year. Some WAY under. If career numbers hold and Urias develops to a 700 OPS guy the team, ON PAPER, has 100 Arcia PAs under 700 OPS. 1150 PAs go up over 50 OPS at the bottom. That's 2 starters worth of PA while paying no one over 5mil. Pretty incredible and many platoon even stronger.

Garcia has to be walking around with a strut in the locker room. Guy actually got paid over 1 WAR value per year. Big dog. 4th highest paid player on the team and all 4 are OFs. Again just stunning.

But
"The Yankees have invited right-hander Chad Bettis to camp on a minor-league deal that according to The Post’s Joel Sherman would pay him $1.5 million if he makes the big league club and includes $2 million in performances bonuses."

And Cashner would have made it much more stable.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?
Posted: February 19, 2020, 12:12 PM Post
Posts: 601
Location: Milwaukee
I'm excited to see what this team can do. I think the players are going to perform better than many expect.

Over the past couple of years we have seen Stearns assembly a pitching staff with mainly average starters coupled with a good bullpen and the result has been pretty successfull. He knew his starters are not good enough to be exposed a third time through, so they pull them before that happens.

Now with the extra position player on the roster, I think Stearns is taking that same approach for the hitters. He has signed a bunch of average infielders (Sogard, Holt, Gyorko) that can play multiple positions and can be used in situations where it is to their advantage. Its likely Counsell will be using multiple platoons in the normal LH vs RH type situations. But because the players are not truly platoon only types with huge splits (Holt was last year but not over his career), he could setup vs environment (wind blowing out against a flyball pitcher - put in Gyorko) or just individual player matchups.

It will be a fun season to watch!


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?
Posted: February 19, 2020, 1:50 PM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 2806
Looks like the Brewers actually spent more this offseason on their 2020 team than any other team in the Central including the all in Reds...

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mlb-team-pa ... ng-begins/


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?
Posted: February 19, 2020, 2:18 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 13999
Location: Milwaukee, WI
The entire complaint about payroll is ridiculous to me. If you didn't know Grandal and Moose were one-year type of situations, that's on you. The Brewers had an opportunity to snag them for a year at a reasonable price and did so. It wasn't going to happen two seasons in a row. But here they are, with a roster that can compete and looks to have some good depth. Can't wait for the season to begin!

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?
Posted: February 19, 2020, 2:52 PM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 5742
sveumrules said:
Looks like the Brewers actually spent more this offseason on their 2020 team than any other team in the Central including the all in Reds...

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mlb-team-pa ... ng-begins/


That's not entirely accurate. They have spent more from Dec 4 to now, but their overall payroll is less since a lot of salaries were dropped or traded. I'm happy with this offseason and don't care that they cut payroll, but they did cut payroll.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

~Bill Walsh


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Have the Brewers done enough to be a 2020 contender?
Posted: February 19, 2020, 7:29 PM Post
Posts: 324
sveumrules said:
Looks like the Brewers actually spent more this offseason on their 2020 team than any other team in the Central including the all in Reds...

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mlb-team-pa ... ng-begins/


I followed that link and was shocked to find... the Brewers actually cut their payroll more than all but 4 teams. It's easy to "spend" the most when you also cut the most.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Go to page Previous  1 ... 5, 6, 7, 8, 9  Next  [ 163 posts ]  New Topic   Add Reply
  


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: bdpecore, brewguy03, burnzy24, clancyphile, CrewFanBrewMan69, djoctagone, TJseven7, turborickey, yfinn6 and 14 guests

You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search this forum (phpBB search):
Jump to:  
Search entire board (Google search):
Google
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group
Test