LambeauLeap1250 WSSP


  
Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next  [ 109 posts ]  New Topic   Add Reply

Betts and Price to Dodgers, Verdugo, Downs, Wong to Red Sox, Maeda to Twins

Author Message
Offline  Re: Betts and Price to Dodgers, Verdugo to Red Sox, Maeda to Twins
#61

Posted: February 05, 2020, 10:40 AM Post
Posts: 4983
tmwiese55 said:
Ennder said:
homer said:
I would be ticked if I was a Red Sox fan.


I wouldn't be. I'd be resting on my 4 world series championships in 16 years and trust in the team to make good choices. If the Red Sox want to do a 1 year rebuild this is the perfect way for them to do it. They may be down a bit in 2020 but the team will be better in 2021+ for it.


Sure of course big pic their titles are in the bank so can't be too mad.

But, if I was their fans I would be mad that not paying a 27 year old MVP is not the way to reset and get under the tax. Seems they wouldn't have been able to do it this year, but have it as a goal over the next few years. Do things like try to dump Price, Evaldi on someone, wait for Pedrois money to drop off, I think they have like 10 mil on the books from a Cuban that flopped, I think one of Hanley/Panda might still be on the books. Do Brewers style bargain shopping to fill out your roster. You should have been able to get under in the coming years. Maybe work out the extension with him to be backloaded and early years be lower.


But just jettisoning vets with bloated contracts without including a valuable player like Betts as the centerpiece would mean the red sox would probably be on the hook for most of those other contracts, and still not get under the luxury tax limit. Trying to slowly drop payroll over a few years basically makes the retooling take longer and gets fans restless for more drastic changes to get the team on the right track more quickly.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Betts and Price to Dodgers, Verdugo to Red Sox, Maeda to Twins
#62

Posted: February 05, 2020, 10:59 AM Post
Posts: 5088
Location: Madison, WI
Supposedly they still ate half of Price's deal. Not sure how accurate that is. Basically I'd have just kept him and been frugal the next few years while trying to offload those guys as you go. Eventually you'd have gotten under. They had a bunch fall off this season and more falls off every year.

I suppose if you think playing that route angers more fans than letting a 27 year old MVP go as one of the top 3 richest teams that's yours or their call, but I think this is much worse.

ETA: Evaldi signing was just a huge mistake if you had this tax plan in mind down the line


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Betts and Price to Dodgers, Verdugo to Red Sox, Maeda to Twins
#63

Posted: February 05, 2020, 11:07 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 3422
Location: California
Ron Robinson's Beard said:
If I'm the Dodgers, and I know that I can acquire Hader, I don't wait till the deadline on the chance that the Brewers are not in contention. I strike now. They managed to acquire Betts and Price without giving up anything huge on their farm. Are they really going to build a super team, then leave the end of close games up to wildcards like Blake Treinen and a potentially washed Kenley Jansen?

I mean I hear you and agree but the Dodgers were just able to acquire a top 5 talent in MLB in Betts without dealing Lux or May. We all believe the Brewers would have to be overwhelmed to trade Hader, who is under team control until after the 2023 season, and any trade that doesn't include one of those guys is just not overwhelming. Even though he is only turning 26 this year, the Brewers aren't trading Hader for Corey Seager (who is a free agent after 2021) and Tony Gonsolin.

Overwhelming means May or Lux and that just isn't happening.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Betts and Price to Dodgers, Verdugo to Red Sox, Maeda to Twins
#64

Posted: February 05, 2020, 11:11 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 11190
This puts the Red Sox in a position to be the front runners on Betts next year as long as they handled things ok so he isn't just pissed off.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Betts and Price to Dodgers, Verdugo to Red Sox, Maeda to Twins
#65

Posted: February 05, 2020, 11:16 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 394
Warning Track Power said:
Ron Robinson's Beard said:
If I'm the Dodgers, and I know that I can acquire Hader, I don't wait till the deadline on the chance that the Brewers are not in contention. I strike now. They managed to acquire Betts and Price without giving up anything huge on their farm. Are they really going to build a super team, then leave the end of close games up to wildcards like Blake Treinen and a potentially washed Kenley Jansen?

I mean I hear you and agree but the Dodgers were just able to acquire a top 5 talent in MLB in Betts without dealing Lux or May. We all believe the Brewers would have to be overwhelmed to trade Hader, who is under team control until after the 2023 season, and any trade that doesn't include one of those guys is just not overwhelming. Even though he is only turning 26 this year, the Brewers aren't trading Hader for Corey Seager (who is a free agent after 2021) and Tony Gonsolin.

Overwhelming means May or Lux and that just isn't happening.


I agree, it would take one of those guys as the headliner. The Dodgers are going to have to weigh whether having a top notch pen is worth the price. They are pretty much in the same spot they were last season, when the pen arguably cost them a trip to the World Series. They can get a guy that would replace Lux or May's production for the next 2-3 years pretty easy via free agency or trade. But guys like Hader don't exist on the free agent market. And they'd be getting 4 years of him.

But you are probably right ... and I'm going to very much enjoy watching Jansen blow games for the Dodgers again in the 2020 playoffs.

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Betts and Price to Dodgers, Verdugo to Red Sox, Maeda to Twins
#66

Posted: February 05, 2020, 11:24 AM Post
Posts: 5088
Location: Madison, WI
Didn't Price transition to the bullpen one season or at least postseason and do well for Boston? I don't think that would be a move for the regular season as for that money you want to try and start him. But come playoffs when you have Kershaw, Buehler already and if someone like May steps up more. Maybe they can have Price be a late game guy. I'd be shocked if they don't get a top pen arm at the deadline though, whoever that may be.

With how loaded they are on O and with the plan to sign Mookie. I'd assume they don't plan on paying Seager, so I'd be using him as trade bait for someone like Hader. Not sure any other eliever would be worth that price though.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Betts and Price to Dodgers, Verdugo to Red Sox, Maeda to Twins
#67

Posted: February 05, 2020, 12:34 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 2788
I don't think it would have been wise for the Red Sox to have a $260+ million cost payroll in 2021 prior to even adding anything that we know about this year. If they somehow didn't lose Betts and signed him to $40+/year and kept Price, that's what they're looking at.

They're in better position for it unless you think their owner should go over $400 million by 2021 or 2022.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Betts and Price to Dodgers, Verdugo to Red Sox, Maeda to Twins
#68

Posted: February 05, 2020, 1:22 PM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 11670
If anyone wants a case study on the potential pratfalls of signing big time free agents to long term deals, look no further than the Red Sox. Signing Sale, Eovaldi, and Price forced their hand on this one. That Sale contract is going to look really bad in just a year or two. Maybe even this year. Who knows? Maybe they jettison Devers and Sale in order to get rid of his contract.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Betts and Price to Dodgers, Verdugo to Red Sox, Maeda to Twins
#69

Posted: February 05, 2020, 1:40 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 2788
homer said:
If anyone wants a case study on the potential pratfalls of signing big time free agents to long term deals, look no further than the Red Sox. Signing Sale, Eovaldi, and Price forced their hand on this one. That Sale contract is going to look really bad in just a year or two. Maybe even this year. Who knows? Maybe they jettison Devers and Sale in order to get rid of his contract.


It really cuts both ways, though.

Most World Series champions have these ridiculous contracts. The Red Sox have won 2 in the past 7 years. The Dodgers have plenty of these massive contracts and have been to basically every WS for the NL recently. The Nats just won with Scherzer, Corbin, Strasburg...yeah, they passed on Harper and later Rendon, but they're not there without those 3 massive contract pitcher prices.

So unless you expect owners to start pushing $400-500 million payrolls, it is working out exactly as it should. The big markets spend big bucks to take a shot at titles, knowing that Jacoby Ellsbury and Nate Eovaldi may be literally useless contract players or shells of their former selves at some point in said contracts.

When they reach a point like the Red Sox and Cubs have of, "oh, we are already at the luxury tax, we won 84 games last year, and we have no farm system. Let's not just sign our entire roster back/add to it so that we can have a $300 million payroll of 34-year-old vets" they hit the reset button. Most fans aren't sitting and looking at cot's baseball contracts so they don't really have a grasp on this, but it's probably the right thing to do unless you expect most or all of these teams to go to $400+ million.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Betts and Price to Dodgers, Verdugo to Red Sox, Maeda to Twins
#70

Posted: February 05, 2020, 1:59 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 1687
If we were going into Yelich's last contract year would a package of Verdugo and Graterol be enough in a trade?


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Betts and Price to Dodgers, Verdugo to Red Sox, Maeda to Twins
#71

Posted: February 05, 2020, 2:05 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 394
jjgott said:
If we were going into Yelich's last contract year would a package of Verdugo and Graterol be enough in a trade?


I am not a Graterol fan, but a guy like Verdugo would be an ideal replacement. He's already proven he can perform at the major league level, and is controllable for 5 seasons. It's also important to note that Price likely carries a negative overall value. The Brewers wouldn't have that sort of albatross-type contract that they'd need to offload with Yelich.

But if the general consensus is if I'd trade Yelich after the 2021 season for a young, affordable and for-the-most-part proven OF and a Top 50-type starting pitching prospect, then yep, I sure would.

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Betts and Price to Dodgers, Verdugo to Red Sox, Maeda to Twins
#72

Posted: February 05, 2020, 3:03 PM Post
Posts: 2826
JosephC said:
I'd calculate the surplus values in the deal as follows:

Betts = +36 million
Price = -60.9 million
Verdugo = +75.5 million
Graterol = +18.9 million
Maeda = +1.8 million


This is crazy and I have Price valued even worse. Boston gives up 23.1 mil in value. They get 94.4 mil in value.

People hate it for Boston? As stated, that value for the 5th year of Yelich (add another prospect for MKE to offset the Price cap eat part of the deal) is about what they gave up for all 5 years of Yelich. MKE gets over 100 mil of surplus value for 1 year of Yelich which is +48 mil? An offer like this will make that 5th year hard to hold onto.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Betts and Price to Dodgers, Verdugo to Red Sox, Maeda to Twins
#73

Posted: February 05, 2020, 3:19 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 2788
TJseven7 said:
JosephC said:
I'd calculate the surplus values in the deal as follows:

Betts = +36 million
Price = -60.9 million
Verdugo = +75.5 million
Graterol = +18.9 million
Maeda = +1.8 million


This is crazy and I have Price valued even worse. Boston gives up 23.1 mil in value. They get 94.4 mil in value.

People hate it for Boston? As stated, that value for the 5th year of Yelich (add another prospect for MKE to offset the Price cap eat part of the deal) is about what they gave up for all 5 years of Yelich. MKE gets over 100 mil of surplus value for 1 year of Yelich which is +48 mil? An offer like this will make that 5th year hard to hold onto.


The people that hate it for Boston are the ones that like to just get mad at ownership. To be fair, also not everyone knows the ins-and-outs of Boston's salary situation or their upcoming tax.

If you tell someone that Betts + Price still probably doesn't give you great WS odds in 2020 and in 2021 and beyond you either lose Betts for nothing or you are deep into luxury tax territory giving Betts $40m/year (and keep Price) and have the same aging roster with not great farm system...and they STILL don't get it then they never will...because these people will not be happy until Boston or New York at $500m payrolls and the Brewers are at $350 (near-term).


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Betts and Price to Dodgers, Verdugo to Red Sox, Maeda to Twins
#74

Posted: February 05, 2020, 3:32 PM Post
Posts: 5088
Location: Madison, WI
I am not a blame management type and am almost always on the MKE side on the screaming here, but I am on the side that simply a team of Boston's level should not let a 27 year old MVP leave. Sure if they have behind the scenes info that he just wants out and doesn't wanna be there, of course. And I don't blame them if right now they have a legit mega offer on the table and gave him the choice to take that or we have to trade if you are determined to hit FA and we have no leg up in the race (risk to lose for nothing type thing). From what I can tell though, none of that has happened.

Other than that, the mega market should just pay prime age MVPs and figure the rest out around it. If they're 33 like Pujols, yea they should be smart about it. They about clear the cost of Betts off just next year in the Cuban, Pedroia, the remainder of Hanley/Panda. They won't be that far off from getting under the cap. That Evaldi one is the real kicker, take that out and it could've really helped get closer.

They won the WS two years ago with this team, won mid 80s last year with a lot going wrong (Sale especially), it is not at all outside the possibility for them to make the playoffs again this year, especially if Sale rebounds. MEanwhile, keep being frugal on other contracts, don't go nuts at the deadlines blowing whatever young players you do have, within 2-3 years you'd be under the tax as these guys fall off and/or getting close to the end so it's much easier to trade. That's my take and it has nothing to do with them spending 500 mil. But, the points that have been made certainly opened my eyes that what they're doing here isn't crazy and there is a logic to all of it. I still lean the other way though.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Betts and Price to Dodgers, Verdugo to Red Sox, Maeda to Twins
#75

Posted: February 05, 2020, 3:34 PM Post
Posts: 333
jjgott said:
If we were going into Yelich's last contract year would a package of Verdugo and Graterol be enough in a trade?


Yes, without a doubt. Not even counting the fact that they got Price off the books.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Betts and Price to Dodgers, Verdugo to Red Sox, Maeda to Twins
#76

Posted: February 05, 2020, 3:44 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 2788
tmwiese55 said:
I am not a blame management type and am almost always on the MKE side on the screaming here, but I am on the side that simply a team of Boston's level should not let a 27 year old MVP leave. Sure if they have behind the scenes info that he just wants out and doesn't wanna be there, of course. And I don't blame them if right now they have a legit mega offer on the table and gave him the choice to take that or we have to trade if you are determined to hit FA and we have no leg up in the race (risk to lose for nothing type thing). From what I can tell though, none of that has happened.

Other than that, the mega market should just pay prime age MVPs and figure the rest out around it. If they're 33 like Pujols, yea they should be smart about it. They about clear the cost of Betts off just next year in the Cuban, Pedroia, the remainder of Hanley/Panda. They won't be that far off from getting under the cap. That Evaldi one is the real kicker, take that out and it could've really helped get closer.

They won the WS two years ago with this team, won mid 80s last year with a lot going wrong (Sale especially), it is not at all outside the possibility for them to make the playoffs again this year, especially if Sale rebounds. MEanwhile, keep being frugal on other contracts, don't go nuts at the deadlines blowing whatever young players you do have, within 2-3 years you'd be under the tax as these guys fall off and/or getting close to the end so it's much easier to trade. That's my take and it has nothing to do with them spending 500 mil. But, the points that have been made certainly opened my eyes that what they're doing here isn't crazy and there is a logic to all of it. I still lean the other way though.


In 2012, granted, this was a longer burden, they literally gave away prime Adrian Gonzalez and a bad Carl Crawford contract. Those contracts lasted through 2018 and 2017, respectively. They also gave up Beckett.

They won the World Series in 2013 with probably some extra cash to sign short-term deals.

They won the World Series in 2018 because they signed David Price in 2016 to a huge deal, JD Martinez in 2018, and got under the luxury tax threshold in 2017. Would any of that have happened with Carl Crawford rotting for $21 million and a washed up A-Gon collecting $21 million? Probably not.

How does this relate to Betts? If they really DID find a way to sign Betts next year (by the way, they technically have the same opportunity to sign him still), it would proably be $40 million/year. They'd probably keep Price or give him away having to pay 70% of his deal.

So imagine a roster with Betts, Price, and everyone else (because you want to compete, right?). In 2021, that roster is ALREADY well over the luxury tax. Now add in that they won 84 games last year, have a disappearing farm system, and guys like Sale, Price, etc. are getting older. That means they'd probably have to add more expensive players to be really good. Those expensive players would cost 1.5-2x the cost because they'd be way, way over the luxury tax. Sign another ace pitcher for $20 million/year? It'll cost ownership $30-35m/year at least until they can find their way back under.

So I just don't see it happening. The fact that Betts probably is gone anyways and the unlikelihood of winning it this year or building around him with all of the other bad contracts in 2021 mean you just have to go and get the best you can and retool. It worked for them after 2012.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Betts and Price to Dodgers, Verdugo to Red Sox, Maeda to Twins
#77

Posted: February 05, 2020, 3:59 PM Post
Posts: 5088
Location: Madison, WI
I said I get it all. And the kicker or final straw might just be that they've determined he's not resigning with them, or at least is unlikely to, so don't think it's worth the risk of getting nothing. As I said, can't blame them for that if that's the case. It's just surprising if it is and this isn't just about them saving money. My take is that taking all that into consideration I still keep the guy (again, unless they just think he's gone, then do what you gotta do).

They would've basically only been about 30 mil over the tax. They weren't that far off from getting there and that amount clears next year just with the guys I listed. Again, that Evaldi one is a killer, 15 mil there gone and then pay a chunk of Price's deal to someone and you're there. Then start figuring things out for the future. Even not knowing this was in the works for them I remember thinking how dumb of a contract that was for basically a reward for a couple good playoff games. My boss who's a Sox fan said the same thing at the time.

ETA: to fix typo. And say that I generally agree to the following post. Things are tough for them regardless. I'd just rather have the prime age MVP while figuring it out, and several other stars like you said. So it's not like they're going to be awful. Just tough to fix pitching (assuming Sale is never the same) when cash strapped for a few years. But do Brewers style signings and maybe you can cobble something together that clicks.


Last edited by tmwiese55 on February 05, 2020, 4:12 PM, edited 1 time in total.

 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Betts and Price to Dodgers, Verdugo to Red Sox, Maeda to Twins
#78

Posted: February 05, 2020, 4:03 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 2788
Yeah, they definitely are paying for other deals.

The issue (and we're mostly in agreement, here) is that even if you chop your way down to the lux tax # by giving away Price, maybe finding a way to dump Eovaldi, etc...is that your team still doesn't have a GREAT outlook at that point. They have a lot of star power but are very thin behind them so they'd have to go and fill their roster with other expensive pieces.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Betts and Price to Dodgers, Verdugo to Red Sox, Maeda to Twins
#79

Posted: February 05, 2020, 4:22 PM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 11670
bill hAll Star said:
homer said:
If anyone wants a case study on the potential pratfalls of signing big time free agents to long term deals, look no further than the Red Sox. Signing Sale, Eovaldi, and Price forced their hand on this one. That Sale contract is going to look really bad in just a year or two. Maybe even this year. Who knows? Maybe they jettison Devers and Sale in order to get rid of his contract.


It really cuts both ways, though.

Most World Series champions have these ridiculous contracts. The Red Sox have won 2 in the past 7 years. The Dodgers have plenty of these massive contracts and have been to basically every WS for the NL recently. The Nats just won with Scherzer, Corbin, Strasburg...yeah, they passed on Harper and later Rendon, but they're not there without those 3 massive contract pitcher prices.

So unless you expect owners to start pushing $400-500 million payrolls, it is working out exactly as it should. The big markets spend big bucks to take a shot at titles, knowing that Jacoby Ellsbury and Nate Eovaldi may be literally useless contract players or shells of their former selves at some point in said contracts.

When they reach a point like the Red Sox and Cubs have of, "oh, we are already at the luxury tax, we won 84 games last year, and we have no farm system. Let's not just sign our entire roster back/add to it so that we can have a $300 million payroll of 34-year-old vets" they hit the reset button. Most fans aren't sitting and looking at cot's baseball contracts so they don't really have a grasp on this, but it's probably the right thing to do unless you expect most or all of these teams to go to $400+ million.


Well yeah but they had already won their two titles when they extended Sale and Eovaldi. The time to cut bait on those guys was before last season.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Betts and Price to Dodgers, Verdugo to Red Sox, Maeda to Twins
#80

Posted: February 05, 2020, 4:48 PM Post
Posts: 5088
Location: Madison, WI
Think that's what cost the GM his job. Everyone could see the Sale arm problem started the year before yet they handed him a big deal. Evaldi had a few good games late and you gave a 4 year deal as a reward. One would think this get under the tax directive was already in place and yet he did those things. The Evaldi being the worst, Sale at least was a legit superstar. I guess the owner has to sign off on it, so you'd think they'd have had this discussion last offseason and they'd have never gotten to this point.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next  [ 109 posts ]  New Topic   Add Reply
  


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: bdeuce05, djoctagone, topper09er, yfinn6, Zad Fnark and 9 guests

You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search this forum (phpBB search):
Jump to:  
Search entire board (Google search):
Google
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group
Test