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2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)

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Offline  2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#1

Posted: February 11, 2020, 6:52 AM Post
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The PECOTA 2020 standings projections are out and they project the NL Central to look like this:

Image


The FanGraphs 2020 standings projections currently only show projected winning percentages which lines up as follows when converted into wins (subject to change once ZiPS is factored in):

Cubs - 84 wins
Reds - 81 wins
Brewers - 81 wins
Cardinals - 79 wins
Pirates - 72 wins


Clay Davenport’s 2020 standings projection model currently predicts the following 2020 NL Central standings (win totals only):

Reds - 86 wins
Brewers - 85 wins
Cubs - 82 wins
Cardinals - 79 wins
Pirates - 72 wins


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Offline  Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#2

Posted: February 11, 2020, 6:57 AM Post
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In addition to commenting on what the actual projections systems seem to think please feel free to offer up your own NL Central 2020 standings predictions. No need to list full records, just win totals for each team.

I’ll start...

NL Central 2020 Standings Prediction

Cubs - 87
Brewers - 85
Reds - 84
Cardinals - 82
Pirates - 68


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Offline  Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#3

Posted: February 11, 2020, 7:29 AM Post
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Haven't the Brewers not been highly thought-of by these projection systems the last few years? It kinda seems like tradition at this point.

Predicted Standings:

Brewers - 90
Cardinals - 87
Cubs - 83
Reds - 80
Pirates - 64

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


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Offline  Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#4

Posted: February 11, 2020, 8:07 AM Post
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My NL Central 2020 Standings Prediction:

Reds - 85
Cardinals - 84
Cubs - 83
Brewers - 80
Pirates - 67

*these are my predictions based on how the teams sit today, 2/11/20. If teams make changes to rosters due to trades, etc, this might look different on opening day.

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#5

Posted: February 11, 2020, 8:37 AM Post
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PECOTA predicted the Brewers would win 89 games last season...


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Offline  Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#6

Posted: February 11, 2020, 8:41 AM Post
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Reds 91-71
Cardinals 89-73
Cubs 83-79
Brewers 78-84
Pirates 66-96

I am often wildly wrong in my predictions. Hope that this is one of those years.


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Offline  Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#7

Posted: February 11, 2020, 8:47 AM Post
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brooks_quichenick said:
PECOTA predicted the Brewers would win 89 games last season...


They nailed it last year, but if I remember correctly ZIPs and Steamer were substantially off. As was PECOTA in 2018.

Important to remember that these are PROJECTIONS, and not PREDICTIONS.

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


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Offline  Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#8

Posted: February 11, 2020, 9:31 AM Post
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PECOTA is absolutely terrible at projecting playing time for guys who aren't established set in stone every day contributors. Probably why they liked the Brewers last year since that was most of the lineup and are less impressed this year since there is going to be a lot of mix and match. As I understand it they changed a number of things this season so maybe that changed. I know I used to buy PECOTA years ago but probably about 7 years ago or so all of the other systems passed them and I felt I was paying for probably the weakest of the systems out there.


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Offline  Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#9

Posted: February 11, 2020, 9:38 AM Post
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Ron Robinson's Beard said:
Important to remember that these are PROJECTIONS, and not PREDICTIONS.

This is a good point, PECOTA's goal isn't to nail an exact win total, but rather offer the range of possible outcomes and the probabilities of each of those outcomes (a much better Baseball Prospectus explanation here).

They have bell curves for each team's number of various outcomes taken from their 1,000 simulations. In the Brewers case the curve spikes sharply at the 78-80 win marks...

Image


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Offline  Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#10

Posted: February 11, 2020, 10:05 AM Post
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Brewers 88-75
Cardinals 87-76
Reds 82-80
Cubs 78-84
Pirates 69-93

Brewers beat Cardinals in Game 163 in Miller Park.


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Offline  Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#11

Posted: February 11, 2020, 10:37 AM Post
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Location: New Berlin, WI
NL Central 2020 Standings Prediction

Brewers - 89
Cardinals - 87
Reds - 86
Cubs - 78
Pirates - 61


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Online  Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#12

Posted: February 11, 2020, 10:39 AM Post
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MIL 88
CHI 87
STL 86
CIN 83
PIT 61


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Offline  Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#13

Posted: February 11, 2020, 10:39 AM Post
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Location: New Berlin, WI
Ron Robinson's Beard said:
brooks_quichenick said:
PECOTA predicted the Brewers would win 89 games last season...


They nailed it last year, but if I remember correctly ZIPs and Steamer were substantially off. As was PECOTA in 2018.

Important to remember that these are PROJECTIONS RANDOM NUMBER GENERATORS, and not PREDICTIONS.


Fixed


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Offline  Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#14

Posted: February 11, 2020, 10:44 AM Post
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Brewers 90
Cards 87
Reds 82
Cubs 80
Pirates 65


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Offline  Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#15

Posted: February 11, 2020, 10:50 AM Post
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Location: New Berlin, WI
The most hilarious thing about these "projections" is that Pecota came up with scenarios where the Pirates win what looks like 90 games. How much can I bet on the under for 90 wins?


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Offline  Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#16

Posted: February 11, 2020, 11:20 AM Post
Posts: 1098
KeithStone53151 said:
Ron Robinson's Beard said:
brooks_quichenick said:
PECOTA predicted the Brewers would win 89 games last season...


They nailed it last year, but if I remember correctly ZIPs and Steamer were substantially off. As was PECOTA in 2018.

Important to remember that these are PROJECTIONS RANDOM NUMBER GENERATORS, and not PREDICTIONS.


Fixed



KeithStone53151 said:
The most hilarious thing about these "projections" is that Pecota came up with scenarios where the Pirates win what looks like 90 games. How much can I bet on the under for 90 wins?


Honestly I don't know what's so hilarious about there being what looks like a 1/1000 (or 0.1%) chance of them winning 90 games. If the Pirates have a lot of guys play to their 90th percentile projections, unexpected contributions from NRIs and prospects, the rest of the division has players underperform, the Pirates get lucky with sequencing etc. then yeah they could get that kind of record. It's so extremely unlikely, hence the 1/1000 likelyhood. But it's not impossible. Most people just struggle with probabilistic reasoning, hence a lot of the misunderstandings about projections.

Projections are also far from random number generators. They will always struggle to accurately project team records, because even if they are completely spot on about every players level of performance (And individual performance is what they do; team performance is essentially just adding them up), team projections could still be way off due to injuries, playing time, trades (Trades alone are a big reason why the best teams always win more than projected and the worst teams win fewer games. That's in addition to the inherent conservatism) and sequencing.


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Offline  Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#17

Posted: February 11, 2020, 11:23 AM Post
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It's almost impossible to predict the division for me tbh. I expect a bloodbath with 4 teams between like 88 and 82 wins. They could be in any order and it wouldn't be at all surprising.

Brewers 86
Cubs 86
Reds 84
Cardinals 82
Pirates 68


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Offline  Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#18

Posted: February 11, 2020, 11:28 AM Post
Posts: 2106
Reds 86
Cards 86
Cubs 86
Brew 80
Pirates 72


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Offline  Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#19

Posted: February 11, 2020, 11:30 AM Post
Posts: 5082
Location: Madison, WI
Vegas Win totals below. Keep in mind there would be slight variation site to site or casino to casino. I saw this in Iowa a week or two back and I want to say STL/CHC/CIN were all essentially the same(lumped even closer than the 3 game difference here). They did not have division odds up at the time, only AL NL WS.

STL 88
Cubs 86
Reds 85
MKE 83


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Offline  Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#20

Posted: February 11, 2020, 11:40 AM Post
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STL 91
CHI 90
CIN 84
MKE 73
PIT 66


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