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2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)

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Offline Ennder Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#41

Posted: February 12, 2020, 3:27 PM Post
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Posts: 11190
JohnBriggs12 said:
Between Bauer (253), Gray (205) and Castillo (226), that's nearly 700 strikeouts. Toss in DeScalafini who had 167 K's in 167 innings, that's around 850 and four guys with more K's than anyone in the Brewer rotation. Defense has zero effect on strikeouts. The Reds rotation has a lot less doubt than the Brewers.



I agree it is less doubt, it just isn't no doubt. Bauer has still only had a sub 4 ERA once in his career. Gray has only managed to stay healthy back to back seasons once in his career and has not looked great 2 of the past 4 years. Castillo has been pretty streaky as well though he is the one I'm most sure of. DeScalfani's FIP has been about 4.70 over the past 2 years. People look at the ERA"s last year which were all way better than the skills and just assume they are going to be amazing, I think you are going to see that rotation isn't as good as people want to believe it is, that's all I'm saying. From just a straight up run prevention as a team standpoint I expect the Reds will be worse this year because last year there was tons of positive variance in the stats that I don't think they repeat.
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Offline vetter Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#42

Posted: February 12, 2020, 3:54 PM Post
Posts: 38
Ennder said:
JohnBriggs12 said:
Between Bauer (253), Gray (205) and Castillo (226), that's nearly 700 strikeouts. Toss in DeScalafini who had 167 K's in 167 innings, that's around 850 and four guys with more K's than anyone in the Brewer rotation. Defense has zero effect on strikeouts. The Reds rotation has a lot less doubt than the Brewers.



I agree it is less doubt, it just isn't no doubt. Bauer has still only had a sub 4 ERA once in his career. Gray has only managed to stay healthy back to back seasons once in his career and has not looked great 2 of the past 4 years. Castillo has been pretty streaky as well though he is the one I'm most sure of. DeScalfani's FIP has been about 4.70 over the past 2 years. People look at the ERA"s last year which were all way better than the skills and just assume they are going to be amazing, I think you are going to see that rotation isn't as good as people want to believe it is, that's all I'm saying. From just a straight up run prevention as a team standpoint I expect the Reds will be worse this year because last year there was tons of positive variance in the stats that I don't think they repeat.


Derek Johnson effect [wink]

On an even sadder note, we can add Wade Miley to the mix once again.
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Offline Ennder Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#43

Posted: February 12, 2020, 5:53 PM Post
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Posts: 11190
vetter said:

Derek Johnson effect [wink]

On an even sadder note, we can add Wade Miley to the mix once again.


That would show up in the actual peripherals, not just in ERA and nowhere else.
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Offline DHonks Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#44

Posted: February 15, 2020, 4:27 PM Post
Posts: 8172
I'll say:
Brewers 90-72
Cardinals 87-75
Reds 86-76
Cubs 77-85
Pirates 71-91
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Offline ougiqbxy Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#45

Posted: February 15, 2020, 5:45 PM Post
Posts: 59
Location: Wisconsin Rapids, WI
Brewers 82-80
Reds 82-80
Cardinals 82-80
Cubs 82-80
Pirates 67-95
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Offline Eye Black Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#46

Posted: February 22, 2020, 8:07 PM Post
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ZiPS projected NL Central standings taken from this article, The Obscenely Early ZiPS Projected Standings:

Team	W	L	GB	PCT	DIV%	WC%	PLAYOFF%
Cubs	85	77	—	.525	39.7%	8.3%	48.0%
Brewers	82	80	3	.506	23.0%	7.4%	30.4%
Cards	82	80	3	.506	18.8%	6.7%	25.6%
Reds	81	81	4	.500	17.8%	6.5%	24.3%
Pirates	71	91	14	.438	0.6%	0.2%	0.8%
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Offline adambr2 Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#47

Posted: February 22, 2020, 8:49 PM Post
Posts: 20234
ougiqbxy said:
Brewers 82-80
Reds 82-80
Cardinals 82-80
Cubs 82-80
Pirates 67-95


Though a mediocre division, this would make for one heck of an exciting race and tiebreaker games at the end of the season.
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Offline Soupbone Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#48

Posted: February 23, 2020, 6:19 AM Post
Posts: 47
They still stubbornly refuse to address the rotation outside of absolute bargain-basement deals, and without Yasmani Grandal, their lineup looks like Yelich and a whole lot of wishcasting.

This from an article on MLB.com by Richard Justice.
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Offline stoutdude04 Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#49

Posted: February 23, 2020, 9:24 AM Post
Posts: 3653
Soupbone said:
They still stubbornly refuse to address the rotation outside of absolute bargain-basement deals, and without Yasmani Grandal, their lineup looks like Yelich and a whole lot of wishcasting.

This from an article on MLB.com by Richard Justice.


Hard to take anything these guys say seriously.

Grandal 2.5 war 119 ops+
Narvaez 2.1 war 120 ops+

The rotation is a concern, sure. It has been the last 2 years and the Brewers have figured out a way to compete.
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Offline sveumrules Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#50

Posted: February 23, 2020, 10:25 AM Post
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Posts: 2806
stoutdude04 said:
Soupbone said:
They still stubbornly refuse to address the rotation outside of absolute bargain-basement deals, and without Yasmani Grandal, their lineup looks like Yelich and a whole lot of wishcasting.

This from an article on MLB.com by Richard Justice.


Hard to take anything these guys say seriously.

Grandal 2.5 war 119 ops+
Narvaez 2.1 war 120 ops+

The rotation is a concern, sure. It has been the last 2 years and the Brewers have figured out a way to compete.


Right? Both last year & over the last three years, Omar & Yasmani have been essentially the same hitter.

Maybe Justice mentions it in the article (no click from me), but the real difference is in their receiving/framing numbers.

Something else to consider is plenty of posters doubted the validity of those framing numbers, both overall in general & specifically Grandal's dazzling marks in that category, so it might not even matter that much.
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Offline stoutdude04 Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#51

Posted: February 23, 2020, 10:43 AM Post
Posts: 3653
It also seems like Narvaez really wants to improve his receiving too(obviously). He said one of his goals this year is to be ranked in the top half of the league.
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Offline bigredrobbo Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#52

Posted: February 23, 2020, 12:28 PM Post
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Posts: 1924
Brewers 87-75
Cubs 85-77
Reds 85-77
Cards 77-85
Pirates 66-96
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Offline StearnsFTW Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#53

Posted: February 24, 2020, 9:41 AM Post
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Posts: 1894
Location: At the gettin' place
I'll be shocked if the Reds win 85 games.

Brewers 89
Cardinals 87
Cubs 85
Reds 79
Pirates 64
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Offline wallus Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#54

Posted: February 24, 2020, 11:47 AM Post
Posts: 1777
Cubs 87
Brewers 86
Reds 86
Cards 80
Pirates 65
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Offline brooks_quichenick Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#55

Posted: February 24, 2020, 9:56 PM Post
Posts: 800
Brewers 91
Cardinals 87
Reds 85
Cubs 83
Pirates 67
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Offline brewtank34 Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#56

Posted: February 25, 2020, 7:37 AM Post
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Posts: 1015
Cubs- 90
Brewers-88
Reds- 85
Red birds- 84
Pirates- 58
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