LambeauLeap1250 WSSP
 

Fan Forum » Major Leagues




  
Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5  Next  Page 3 of 5
  [ 85 posts ]  New Topic   Add Reply

  Print view Previous topic | Next topic 

2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)

Author Message
Offline Ennder Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#41

Posted: February 12, 2020, 3:27 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 11236
JohnBriggs12 said:
Between Bauer (253), Gray (205) and Castillo (226), that's nearly 700 strikeouts. Toss in DeScalafini who had 167 K's in 167 innings, that's around 850 and four guys with more K's than anyone in the Brewer rotation. Defense has zero effect on strikeouts. The Reds rotation has a lot less doubt than the Brewers.



I agree it is less doubt, it just isn't no doubt. Bauer has still only had a sub 4 ERA once in his career. Gray has only managed to stay healthy back to back seasons once in his career and has not looked great 2 of the past 4 years. Castillo has been pretty streaky as well though he is the one I'm most sure of. DeScalfani's FIP has been about 4.70 over the past 2 years. People look at the ERA"s last year which were all way better than the skills and just assume they are going to be amazing, I think you are going to see that rotation isn't as good as people want to believe it is, that's all I'm saying. From just a straight up run prevention as a team standpoint I expect the Reds will be worse this year because last year there was tons of positive variance in the stats that I don't think they repeat.
 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline vetter Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#42

Posted: February 12, 2020, 3:54 PM Post
Posts: 104
Ennder said:
JohnBriggs12 said:
Between Bauer (253), Gray (205) and Castillo (226), that's nearly 700 strikeouts. Toss in DeScalafini who had 167 K's in 167 innings, that's around 850 and four guys with more K's than anyone in the Brewer rotation. Defense has zero effect on strikeouts. The Reds rotation has a lot less doubt than the Brewers.



I agree it is less doubt, it just isn't no doubt. Bauer has still only had a sub 4 ERA once in his career. Gray has only managed to stay healthy back to back seasons once in his career and has not looked great 2 of the past 4 years. Castillo has been pretty streaky as well though he is the one I'm most sure of. DeScalfani's FIP has been about 4.70 over the past 2 years. People look at the ERA"s last year which were all way better than the skills and just assume they are going to be amazing, I think you are going to see that rotation isn't as good as people want to believe it is, that's all I'm saying. From just a straight up run prevention as a team standpoint I expect the Reds will be worse this year because last year there was tons of positive variance in the stats that I don't think they repeat.


Derek Johnson effect [wink]

On an even sadder note, we can add Wade Miley to the mix once again.
 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline Ennder Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#43

Posted: February 12, 2020, 5:53 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 11236
vetter said:

Derek Johnson effect [wink]

On an even sadder note, we can add Wade Miley to the mix once again.


That would show up in the actual peripherals, not just in ERA and nowhere else.
 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline DHonks Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#44

Posted: February 15, 2020, 4:27 PM Post
Posts: 8352
I'll say:
Brewers 90-72
Cardinals 87-75
Reds 86-76
Cubs 77-85
Pirates 71-91
 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline ougiqbxy Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#45

Posted: February 15, 2020, 5:45 PM Post
Posts: 62
Location: Wisconsin Rapids, WI
Brewers 82-80
Reds 82-80
Cardinals 82-80
Cubs 82-80
Pirates 67-95
 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline Eye Black Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#46

Posted: February 22, 2020, 8:07 PM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 8662
ZiPS projected NL Central standings taken from this article, The Obscenely Early ZiPS Projected Standings:

Team	W	L	GB	PCT	DIV%	WC%	PLAYOFF%
Cubs	85	77	—	.525	39.7%	8.3%	48.0%
Brewers	82	80	3	.506	23.0%	7.4%	30.4%
Cards	82	80	3	.506	18.8%	6.7%	25.6%
Reds	81	81	4	.500	17.8%	6.5%	24.3%
Pirates	71	91	14	.438	0.6%	0.2%	0.8%
 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Online adambr2 Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#47

Posted: February 22, 2020, 8:49 PM Post
Posts: 22269
ougiqbxy said:
Brewers 82-80
Reds 82-80
Cardinals 82-80
Cubs 82-80
Pirates 67-95


Though a mediocre division, this would make for one heck of an exciting race and tiebreaker games at the end of the season.
 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline Soupbone Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#48

Posted: February 23, 2020, 6:19 AM Post
Posts: 117
They still stubbornly refuse to address the rotation outside of absolute bargain-basement deals, and without Yasmani Grandal, their lineup looks like Yelich and a whole lot of wishcasting.

This from an article on MLB.com by Richard Justice.
 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline stoutdude04 Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#49

Posted: February 23, 2020, 9:24 AM Post
Posts: 4065
Soupbone said:
They still stubbornly refuse to address the rotation outside of absolute bargain-basement deals, and without Yasmani Grandal, their lineup looks like Yelich and a whole lot of wishcasting.

This from an article on MLB.com by Richard Justice.


Hard to take anything these guys say seriously.

Grandal 2.5 war 119 ops+
Narvaez 2.1 war 120 ops+

The rotation is a concern, sure. It has been the last 2 years and the Brewers have figured out a way to compete.
 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline sveumrules Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#50

Posted: February 23, 2020, 10:25 AM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 3316
stoutdude04 said:
Soupbone said:
They still stubbornly refuse to address the rotation outside of absolute bargain-basement deals, and without Yasmani Grandal, their lineup looks like Yelich and a whole lot of wishcasting.

This from an article on MLB.com by Richard Justice.


Hard to take anything these guys say seriously.

Grandal 2.5 war 119 ops+
Narvaez 2.1 war 120 ops+

The rotation is a concern, sure. It has been the last 2 years and the Brewers have figured out a way to compete.


Right? Both last year & over the last three years, Omar & Yasmani have been essentially the same hitter.

Maybe Justice mentions it in the article (no click from me), but the real difference is in their receiving/framing numbers.

Something else to consider is plenty of posters doubted the validity of those framing numbers, both overall in general & specifically Grandal's dazzling marks in that category, so it might not even matter that much.
 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline stoutdude04 Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#51

Posted: February 23, 2020, 10:43 AM Post
Posts: 4065
It also seems like Narvaez really wants to improve his receiving too(obviously). He said one of his goals this year is to be ranked in the top half of the league.
 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline bigredrobbo Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#52

Posted: February 23, 2020, 12:28 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 1938
Brewers 87-75
Cubs 85-77
Reds 85-77
Cards 77-85
Pirates 66-96
 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline StearnsFTW Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#53

Posted: February 24, 2020, 9:41 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 1925
Location: At the gettin' place
I'll be shocked if the Reds win 85 games.

Brewers 89
Cardinals 87
Cubs 85
Reds 79
Pirates 64
 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline wallus Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#54

Posted: February 24, 2020, 11:47 AM Post
Posts: 1961
Cubs 87
Brewers 86
Reds 86
Cards 80
Pirates 65
 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline brooks_quichenick Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#55

Posted: February 24, 2020, 9:56 PM Post
Posts: 806
Brewers 91
Cardinals 87
Reds 85
Cubs 83
Pirates 67
 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline brewtank34 Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#56

Posted: February 25, 2020, 7:37 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 1022
Cubs- 90
Brewers-88
Reds- 85
Red birds- 84
Pirates- 58
 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline stalton Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#57

Posted: March 20, 2020, 8:19 PM Post
Posts: 1301
What does a baseball nerd do on a lonely Friday night? Math! Ding ding ding!

I looked at BFs guesses for our no longer possible 162 game series and found out there was practically a 4 way tie for first place for everybody but the Pirates. The cards had a whisper of an edge on average but the Brewers easily claimed the highest median so the Brewers pessimists were pessimistier than other teams.

All in all it would have been a helluva fight for 162 games and I imagine it would for however many games (if) they play.

Cards 84.9
Brewers 84.8
Reds 84.7
Cubs 84.1
Pirates 65.6
 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline Eye Black Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#58

Posted: March 21, 2020, 4:11 PM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 8662
stalton said:
What does a baseball nerd do on a lonely Friday night? Math! Ding ding ding!

I looked at BFs guesses for our no longer possible 162 game series and found out there was practically a 4 way tie for first place for everybody but the Pirates. The cards had a whisper of an edge on average but the Brewers easily claimed the highest median so the Brewers pessimists were pessimistier than other teams.

All in all it would have been a helluva fight for 162 games and I imagine it would for however many games (if) they play.

Cards 84.9
Brewers 84.8
Reds 84.7
Cubs 84.1
Pirates 65.6

Thanks for doing the math, I absolutely believe every one of those teams was destined to finish somewhere in the 80-89 win range. It’s unfortunate we’ll never know how it would have played out over a full season.
 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline AZBrewCrew Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#59

Posted: March 21, 2020, 5:56 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 3053
Location: Phoenix
1st. Coronavirus
2nd. Cubs
3rd. Reds
4th. Brewers
5th Cardinals
6th Pirates


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Formerly AirShuttle6104
 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline trwi7 Re: 2020 NL Central Standings Projections (Predictions Welcome)
#60

Posted: March 21, 2020, 7:09 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 19210
AZBrewCrew said:
1st. Coronavirus
2nd. Cubs
3rd. Reds
4th. Brewers
5th Cardinals
6th Pirates


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


I never liked the NL Central with 6 teams.
Cards' fans wear jorts.
 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5  Next  Page 3 of 5
  [ 85 posts ]  New Topic   Add Reply
  

Fan Forum » Major Leagues



Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests

You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search this forum (phpBB search):
Jump to:  
Search entire board (Google search):
Google
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group

OurBoard

Test