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YELICH EXTENDED - 9 YEARS $215M, Mutual Option in 2029, Full No Trade, $28 million deferred

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Online  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 04, 2020, 10:54 AM Post
Posts: 5592
Location: New Berlin, WI
BuckyBrewer61 said:
Ron Robinson's Beard said:
Braun since signing his big extension in 2011 at age 27 - 29.8 WAR (9 seasons)
Heyward since singing his huge deal in 2015 at age 26 - 7.1 WAR (4 seasons)

Braun put up 17.5 WAR in the four years after signing his deal, which includes his injury and suspension-ravaged 2013 and 2014 seasons. Comparing these two based on the WAR Braun put up in 2019 as a 35-year-old versus what Heyward did as a 29-year-old just isn't a good, or fair, comparison.


Heyward also still has 4 more years left on his deal at $21.5m per.


You guys are fighting a losing battle here trying to say Braun's deal is equal or worse than Heyward. As noted, Braun had those MVP/borderline MVP years in his prime as part of the deal...while Heyward in his prime part of the deal is posting 1-2 WAR seasons that are extremely heavily aided by defense...which is notorious for overvaluing defense. Those defensive skills will diminish as he ages and he might not even be rosterable by the end of his tenure if he can't hit better than a low 700s OPS. Basically, Braun in the twilight years of his big contract has been as productive as peak Heyward.


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 04, 2020, 11:32 AM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
BuckyBrewer61 said:
Ron Robinson's Beard said:
Braun since signing his big extension in 2011 at age 27 - 29.8 WAR (9 seasons)
Heyward since singing his huge deal in 2015 at age 26 - 7.1 WAR (4 seasons)

Braun put up 17.5 WAR in the four years after signing his deal, which includes his injury and suspension-ravaged 2013 and 2014 seasons. Comparing these two based on the WAR Braun put up in 2019 as a 35-year-old versus what Heyward did as a 29-year-old just isn't a good, or fair, comparison.


Heyward also still has 4 more years left on his deal at $21.5m per.


You guys are fighting a losing battle here trying to say Braun's deal is equal or worse than Heyward. As noted, Braun had those MVP/borderline MVP years in his prime as part of the deal...while Heyward in his prime part of the deal is posting 1-2 WAR seasons that are extremely heavily aided by defense...which is notorious for overvaluing defense. Those defensive skills will diminish as he ages and he might not even be rosterable by the end of his tenure if he can't hit better than a low 700s OPS. Basically, Braun in the twilight years of his big contract has been as productive as peak Heyward.


Age is irrelevant in this discussion. Why are you bringing age into a discussion of value provided that a player provided under contract?

If in 2010 I told you that Ryan Braun would give you 3 WAR and then 1.5 basically every year on his 2nd extension, knowing what we know about how players age, would that have surprised you?

You might be conflating Braun's 1st deal with his 2nd. We're just talking about the only the 2nd deal that they signed Braun to which is very similar to Yelich's new extension.


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 04, 2020, 11:41 AM Post
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bill hAll Star said:
Age is irrelevant in this discussion. Why are you bringing age into a discussion of value provided that a player provided under contract?

If in 2010 I told you that Ryan Braun would give you 3 WAR and then 1.5 basically every year on his 2nd extension, knowing what we know about how players age, would that have surprised you?

You might be conflating Braun's 1st deal with his 2nd. We're just talking about the only the 2nd deal that they signed Braun to which is very similar to Yelich's new extension.


Because a poster tried to make an apples-to-apples comparison in the deals based on 2019 WAR numbers of a 35-year-old Braun compared to a 29-year-old Heyward. When comparing the value, you have to look at the value providing over the lifetime of the deal compared to cherry-picking one season. Since Heyward signed his deal before the 2016 season, he only has 4 seasons to draw conclusions from. It makes sense to compare those numbers over four years to the first four years of Braun's big-money extension, which began in 2011.

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 04, 2020, 11:50 AM Post
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Re: Braun. I wonder how his value gets perceived with 1b defense. I imagine over a longer sample. And he seems historically to hold a positive RF. Maybe he tosses a 2÷WAR season. He's also gotta think he's playing a contract year. So maybe he posts a 3WAR type year. I do wonder with him batting leadoff ahead of Yelich/Hiura. He still can steal his share of bases and OB is legit enough to fit the role. Isnt this season essentially motivating to be a little more than he's been? Writing this gives me high feelings on a great season for Braun.


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 04, 2020, 11:50 AM Post
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Ron Robinson's Beard said:

Because a poster tried to make an apples-to-apples comparison in the deals based on 2019 WAR numbers of a 35-year-old Braun compared to a 29-year-old Heyward. When comparing the value, you have to look at the value providing over the lifetime of the deal compared to cherry-picking one season. Since Heyward signed his deal before the 2016 season, he only has 4 seasons to draw conclusions from. It makes sense to compare those numbers over four years to the first four years of Braun's big-money extension, which began in 2011.


No I wasn't making an apples-to-apples comparison to their deals, I was comparing their 2019 numbers. Bucky said "But last year the guy hit .285/.343/.505/.849 with 22HR and 75 RBI. The guy isn’t a dud, it’s not like he’s Jason Heyward." My point was that Heyward had a better 2019 than Braun which would probably surprise some people.


Last edited by wallus on March 04, 2020, 11:52 AM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 04, 2020, 11:52 AM Post
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Ron Robinson's Beard said:
bill hAll Star said:
Age is irrelevant in this discussion. Why are you bringing age into a discussion of value provided that a player provided under contract?

If in 2010 I told you that Ryan Braun would give you 3 WAR and then 1.5 basically every year on his 2nd extension, knowing what we know about how players age, would that have surprised you?

You might be conflating Braun's 1st deal with his 2nd. We're just talking about the only the 2nd deal that they signed Braun to which is very similar to Yelich's new extension.


Because a poster tried to make an apples-to-apples comparison in the deals based on 2019 WAR numbers of a 35-year-old Braun compared to a 29-year-old Heyward. When comparing the value, you have to look at the value providing over the lifetime of the deal compared to cherry-picking one season. Since Heyward signed his deal before the 2016 season, he only has 4 seasons to draw conclusions from. It makes sense to compare those numbers over four years to the first four years of Braun's big-money extension, which began in 2011.


The extra two years and cash are worth noting on Heyward and he was more of a bust than Braun faded.

Braun's contract was not "as bad" as Heyward's but that does not make it a great contract. Braun probably ended up providing on the mid-to-better end of expectations on it and it still didn't deliver a ton of value even if it has not crippled them.


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 04, 2020, 12:00 PM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
Possibly the biggest flaw in that was using just Heywards 2019 while ignoring how awful of a hitter he'd been previously. Sure, if Heyward continues to hit respectably like last year he's not too bad. I strongly doubt last year was legit though. Without checking, I want to say it was massively inflated by a hot start and then he went back to his poor hitting, don't hold me to that though.

Someone also just said Braun batting leadoff. Is that something that's been said that I missed or just speculation? I've thought that for a bit now as well to as a descent spot for him. Mostly as a way to emphasize pitch selection and OBP to him instead of power/HRs. If that makes sense.


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 04, 2020, 12:02 PM Post
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wallus said:
Ron Robinson's Beard said:

Because a poster tried to make an apples-to-apples comparison in the deals based on 2019 WAR numbers of a 35-year-old Braun compared to a 29-year-old Heyward. When comparing the value, you have to look at the value providing over the lifetime of the deal compared to cherry-picking one season. Since Heyward signed his deal before the 2016 season, he only has 4 seasons to draw conclusions from. It makes sense to compare those numbers over four years to the first four years of Braun's big-money extension, which began in 2011.


No I wasn't making an apples-to-apples comparison to their deals, I was comparing their 2019 numbers. Bucky said "But last year the guy hit .285/.343/.505/.849 with 22HR and 75 RBI. The guy isn’t a dud, it’s not like he’s Jason Heyward." My point was that Heyward had a better 2019 than Braun which would probably surprise some people.


They had similar but switched years. Heyward started out hot and faded badly in the second half. Braun started out slow and raked the second half of the season. Heyward just adds defensive value. No doubt who the better hitter is though


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 04, 2020, 12:05 PM Post
Posts: 20543
Ron Robinson's Beard said:
bill hAll Star said:
Age is irrelevant in this discussion. Why are you bringing age into a discussion of value provided that a player provided under contract?

If in 2010 I told you that Ryan Braun would give you 3 WAR and then 1.5 basically every year on his 2nd extension, knowing what we know about how players age, would that have surprised you?

You might be conflating Braun's 1st deal with his 2nd. We're just talking about the only the 2nd deal that they signed Braun to which is very similar to Yelich's new extension.


Because a poster tried to make an apples-to-apples comparison in the deals based on 2019 WAR numbers of a 35-year-old Braun compared to a 29-year-old Heyward. When comparing the value, you have to look at the value providing over the lifetime of the deal compared to cherry-picking one season. Since Heyward signed his deal before the 2016 season, he only has 4 seasons to draw conclusions from. It makes sense to compare those numbers over four years to the first four years of Braun's big-money extension, which began in 2011.


Braun's big market extension began in 2016, not 2011. I'm not comparing Heyward to Braun but again, those MVP/near MVP type prime years for Braun were well within his first early extension and had nothing to do with the later big money extension that he's playing under now. The "lifetime of the deal" for the Braun deal everyone refers to ran from 2016-2020.


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 04, 2020, 12:14 PM Post
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jjfanec said:
wallus said:
Ron Robinson's Beard said:

Because a poster tried to make an apples-to-apples comparison in the deals based on 2019 WAR numbers of a 35-year-old Braun compared to a 29-year-old Heyward. When comparing the value, you have to look at the value providing over the lifetime of the deal compared to cherry-picking one season. Since Heyward signed his deal before the 2016 season, he only has 4 seasons to draw conclusions from. It makes sense to compare those numbers over four years to the first four years of Braun's big-money extension, which began in 2011.


No I wasn't making an apples-to-apples comparison to their deals, I was comparing their 2019 numbers. Bucky said "But last year the guy hit .285/.343/.505/.849 with 22HR and 75 RBI. The guy isn’t a dud, it’s not like he’s Jason Heyward." My point was that Heyward had a better 2019 than Braun which would probably surprise some people.


They had similar but switched years. Heyward started out hot and faded badly in the second half. Braun started out slow and raked the second half of the season. Heyward just adds defensive value. No doubt who the better hitter is though


True but the first game counts just as much as number 162 and defense matters.


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 04, 2020, 12:25 PM Post
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#RyanBraunForever

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 04, 2020, 1:00 PM Post
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adambr2 said:
Ron Robinson's Beard said:
bill hAll Star said:
Age is irrelevant in this discussion. Why are you bringing age into a discussion of value provided that a player provided under contract?

If in 2010 I told you that Ryan Braun would give you 3 WAR and then 1.5 basically every year on his 2nd extension, knowing what we know about how players age, would that have surprised you?

You might be conflating Braun's 1st deal with his 2nd. We're just talking about the only the 2nd deal that they signed Braun to which is very similar to Yelich's new extension.


Because a poster tried to make an apples-to-apples comparison in the deals based on 2019 WAR numbers of a 35-year-old Braun compared to a 29-year-old Heyward. When comparing the value, you have to look at the value providing over the lifetime of the deal compared to cherry-picking one season. Since Heyward signed his deal before the 2016 season, he only has 4 seasons to draw conclusions from. It makes sense to compare those numbers over four years to the first four years of Braun's big-money extension, which began in 2011.


Braun's big market extension began in 2016, not 2011. I'm not comparing Heyward to Braun but again, those MVP/near MVP type prime years for Braun were well within his first early extension and had nothing to do with the later big money extension that he's playing under now. The "lifetime of the deal" for the Braun deal everyone refers to ran from 2016-2020.


Fine.

Heyward 2016-2019 (ages 26-29) - 7.1 WAR, with a big defensive bump
Braun 2016-2019 (ages 32-35) - 8.5 WAR, with a big defensive deficiency

Unless you put a huge value on defensive stats in the OF, Braun has been a much more productive and valuable player during that time period, despite the 6-year age gap. Unless Heyward sees some sort of career resurgence, chances are he won't even be in the league for his ages 32-35 seasons, as the Cubs will just dump him, essentially paying him to go away. That's where things are trending.

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 04, 2020, 1:21 PM Post
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Not much to add, but when I saw this thread title while getting ready to leave for work yesterday, my first thought was, "Wait, it's not April 1 yet." Genuinely surprising and pleasantly so.


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 04, 2020, 1:22 PM Post
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Ron Robinson's Beard said:

Fine.

Heyward 2016-2019 (ages 26-29) - 7.1 WAR, with a big defensive bump
Braun 2016-2019 (ages 32-35) - 8.5 WAR, with a big defensive deficiency

Unless you put a huge value on defensive stats in the OF, Braun has been a much more productive and valuable player during that time period, despite the 6-year age gap. Unless Heyward sees some sort of career resurgence, chances are he won't even be in the league for his ages 32-35 seasons, as the Cubs will just dump him, essentially paying him to go away. That's where things are trending.


Heyward is only signed through age 33, FWIW.

Agree, he's trending down.


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 04, 2020, 1:33 PM Post
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wallus said:
No I wasn't making an apples-to-apples comparison to their deals, I was comparing their 2019 numbers. Bucky said "But last year the guy hit .285/.343/.505/.849 with 22HR and 75 RBI. The guy isn’t a dud, it’s not like he’s Jason Heyward." My point was that Heyward had a better 2019 than Braun which would probably surprise some people.


Of course I was not just comparing Braun vs Heyward in 2019. This whole thread is largely discussing long-term contracts and the value/risk of them.

I was simply defending Braun because people talk about him now like he’s a huge liability and wasn’t worth his contract. I understand some of the arguments about whether these deals are worth it, Braun’s final extension included. All I’m trying to say is Braun is still producing and at least making his final years’ salary more palatable. I probably should’ve picked a better more precise example of a player providing next to no value in the twilight years of a long-term deal like Pujols or Cabrera.

I simply used Heyward as an example of a what a bad long-term deal actually looks like, largely because he’s a Cub, therefore I love how bad this contract has been for them so I like talking about it.

But I’ll bite - completely ignoring their respective ages, any other value of extending your franchise player, and the fact the Brewers presumably had no idea the steroid issue was coming (extension was signed the year before he was caught)...comparing just the numbers on Braun’s final extension vs Heyward’s contract (both began in 2016):

Braun:
.280/.341/.503/.844
Averaging 22 HR, 70 RBI
$79m earned, 1 year/$21m remaining (including buyout of 2021 club option)

Heyward:
.252/.327/.383/.711
Averaging 12 HR, 57 RBI
$98m earned, 4 years/$86m remaining

I can understand the argument about the value of Braun’s final extension, but any attempt to try to equate Heyward and Braun’s deals is plainly off base IMO.

I am not Shea Vucinich


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Online  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 04, 2020, 1:45 PM Post
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FYI - when the deal is officially announced Friday we will update the thread title with the terms

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 04, 2020, 1:54 PM Post
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BuckyBrewer61 said:
wallus said:
No I wasn't making an apples-to-apples comparison to their deals, I was comparing their 2019 numbers. Bucky said "But last year the guy hit .285/.343/.505/.849 with 22HR and 75 RBI. The guy isn’t a dud, it’s not like he’s Jason Heyward." My point was that Heyward had a better 2019 than Braun which would probably surprise some people.


Of course I was not just comparing Braun vs Heyward in 2019. This whole thread is largely discussing long-term contracts and the value/risk of them.

I was simply defending Braun because people talk about him now like he’s a huge liability and wasn’t worth his contract. I understand some of the arguments about whether these deals are worth it, Braun’s final extension included. All I’m trying to say is Braun is still producing and at least making his final years’ salary more palatable. I probably should’ve picked a better more precise example of a player providing next to no value in the twilight years of a long-term deal like Pujols or Cabrera.

I simply used Heyward as an example of a what a bad long-term deal actually looks like, largely because he’s a Cub, therefore I love how bad this contract has been for them so I like talking about it.

But I’ll bite - completely ignoring their respective ages, any other value of extending your franchise player, and the fact the Brewers presumably had no idea the steroid issue was coming (extension was signed the year before he was caught)...comparing just the numbers on Braun’s final extension vs Heyward’s contract (both began in 2016):

Braun:
.280/.341/.503/.844
Averaging 22 HR, 70 RBI
$79m earned, 1 year/$21m remaining (including buyout of 2021 club option)

Heyward:
.252/.327/.383/.711
Averaging 12 HR, 57 RBI
$98m earned, 4 years/$86m remaining

I can understand the argument about the value of Braun’s final extension, but any attempt to try to equate Heyward and Braun’s deals is plainly off base IMO.

Pujols is still probably not the best comp because he was still productive in his age 35 & 36 seasons. Both 40 & 31 HR seasons w/ OPS+ of 118 & 113. Braun just had an 116 OPS+ in his age 35 season. I didn't look up Cabrera.

Still, considering Pujols has only topped an .800 OPS once in his time with the Angels, an .859 OPS in his first season at age 32, I don't think that 10 year $240M deal worked out quite the way the Angels wanted it to.


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 04, 2020, 2:13 PM Post
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There are some questions about Pujols' actual age.


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 04, 2020, 2:33 PM Post
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Not making arguments about specific age, just talking about production at the end of a long-term deal

I am not Shea Vucinich


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 04, 2020, 3:05 PM Post
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It might surprise some that Pujols had 23 HR and 93 RBI last season...
Not that that makes him "good" (he rocked a .734 OPS) but he was productive-ish. Terrible defensively at 1B though.


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