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YELICH EXTENDED - 9 YEARS $215M, Mutual Option in 2029, Full No Trade, $28 million deferred

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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 04, 2020, 3:10 PM Post
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All contracts are different, but I think it's fair to compare this extension with Braun's second extension. In both cases we had an MVP-caliber player locked up for a team-friendly rate for a few seasons through their prime years who was extended to a "closer to market value" rate for their post-prime years going into their mid-30's. Both were "face of the franchise," potential Hall of Famers when signed. This deal will likely buy us a couple of extra good years beyond what we already had, and some years where we're overpaying for a guy who is still a decent player, but not worth what he's getting.

The Brewers may not get the "WAR value" back from the dollars they're spending, but this is a franchise that has only had two really good players (Yount & Molitor) spend most of their career in a Brewer uniform. Braun is the third player who really deserves to have his number retired, as the rest of the numbers (of course excluding Jackie Robinson & Uke) only played a short time in Milwaukee. Like Braun, even though we will have years at the end of the deal where we may wish we could get rid of the contract, if we're going to overpay for an aging player, I'd rather it be one who spent most (or all) of his career with the Brewers.

Here's to being able to watch what I hope is a Hall of Fame career spent mostly in Milwaukee.


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 04, 2020, 4:17 PM Post

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Unfortunately I had the pleasure to listen to national sports talk radio today lambaste this deal from the Brewers side. Their angle was that Yelich could be just average by the time the extension kicks in and basically that the Brewers had no reason to do this. I am sure that if the Yankees had signed Yelich to the same deal (9 years, 215 million) that they would be talking about how many World Series titles they would be winning in that time frame.


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Online  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 04, 2020, 4:49 PM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
Pujols OBP and all those type of numbers are atrocious. He maintains RBIs just by batting behind a guy with near .500 OBP. If he wasn't being paid this money he'd have probably hung it up a couple years back.

Really the Braun to Yelich comparison is about as close you'll be able to find. It's near perfect actually.

To Jack's post there about media ripping it. Sure, they're not wrong in that we all see that's possible too. No one is stupid. But there has to be a middle ground. He's not going to take 20 mil a year and we won't pay 35 mil for the market cost. They met in the middle, seems reasonable. But yea it's funny that the NYY could sign a straight up FA who's 30/31 to a 7-8 year 250 mil deal and they'd gush over it and how they'll win the title. Heck, they traded for a worse deal in Stantons and just gave $325 mil to a player turning 30 (1 less than Yeli would be at FA) this year and it's lauded as a great move.


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 04, 2020, 6:41 PM Post
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I see 9 years and think that somewhere in there there is going to be a tear down for two or three years and a rebuild back up. That is just the norm for most organizations. If and more likely when that happens, the Trade Yelich thinking will start. By signing him long term, the team can get significant prospects back in four to six years rather than lose him to FA in three.
The big question will be the no trade clause, if there is one and when it kicks in or ends.


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Online  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 04, 2020, 7:10 PM Post
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rickh150 said:
I see 9 years and think that somewhere in there there is going to be a tear down for two or three years and a rebuild back up. That is just the norm for most organizations. If and more likely when that happens, the Trade Yelich thinking will start. By signing him long term, the team can get significant prospects back in four to six years rather than lose him to FA in three.
The big question will be the no trade clause, if there is one and when it kicks in or ends.


Good point. I don't see this contract as being too onerous for a big market team.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 04, 2020, 9:34 PM Post
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rickh150 said:
I see 9 years and think that somewhere in there there is going to be a tear down for two or three years and a rebuild back up. That is just the norm for most organizations. If and more likely when that happens, the Trade Yelich thinking will start. By signing him long term, the team can get significant prospects back in four to six years rather than lose him to FA in three.
The big question will be the no trade clause, if there is one and when it kicks in or ends.


I wonder if part of this years philosophy of signings free agents for 1 year and a club option is a strategy to try and avoid a small rebuild. Gives 1-2 years to draft and develop some. Trade away for prospects. Some prospects come out of no where too. Just an interesting philosophy this year that May pay off for us instead of rebuilding.


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 04, 2020, 9:49 PM Post
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A full no trade clause will kick in late in the summer on 2023. Before that, who knows.


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 04, 2020, 10:45 PM Post
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So there is still time to flip him for Gavin Lux?
adambr2 said:
A full no trade clause will kick in late in the summer on 2023. Before that, who knows.


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 04, 2020, 11:41 PM Post
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Given the current roster, prospects, and organization philosophy, I’m not convinced there will be a rebuild during Yelich’s tenure with the Brewers. Time will tell.


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 04, 2020, 11:57 PM Post
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tmwiese55 said:
Pujols OBP and all those type of numbers are atrocious. He maintains RBIs just by batting behind a guy with near .500 OBP. If he wasn't being paid this money he'd have probably hung it up a couple years back.

So THAT'S what the Brewers have been doing wrong, they should have been batting Arcia behind Yelich this whole time!


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 05, 2020, 7:56 AM Post
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BuckyBrewer61 said:
Not making arguments about specific age, just talking about production at the end of a long-term deal


Braun is way overpaid at the end of his deal and it isn't crippling the franchise. I don't think its an issue. You can have one or maybe even 2 in Milwaukee and stay competitive. This is what you needed to do to keep him. You can expect to field a good team with arbitration eligible players and 1 year contract guys.


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 05, 2020, 9:13 AM Post
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6-9 years from now, if MLB continues its financial success, $25 million will likely get you a utility player and an average set up man. The top free agents will be signing for $40-$50 million a year. In other words, there is every reason to believe that, based on inflation, the contract that Yelich signed will be team friendly throughout the length of the deal.

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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Online  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 05, 2020, 9:21 AM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
SeaBass said:
tmwiese55 said:
Pujols OBP and all those type of numbers are atrocious. He maintains RBIs just by batting behind a guy with near .500 OBP. If he wasn't being paid this money he'd have probably hung it up a couple years back.

So THAT'S what the Brewers have been doing wrong, they should have been batting Arcia behind Yelich this whole time!


Haha. It's shockingly not that far off, that's how bad Pujols is. Pujols had a 672 OPS a couple years ago and a 700 another. In 2017 Arcia was higher than him. Have arcia swing purely for the fences and he could probably get into the low 20s in HRs like Pujols instead of teens.


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 05, 2020, 9:48 AM Post
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Right, I'm not claiming Pujols is good. He's far and away not worth the $30M a season he'll get this year and next year, and his entire contract pretty much backfired on the Angels almost immediately. But he's not completely useless even at age 39 last season, he's not great, he's not Braun even, but it could be so much worse too, like Chris Davis worse.


Last edited by SeaBass on March 05, 2020, 9:51 AM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 05, 2020, 9:51 AM Post
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Pujols is very likely 42 right now.

As a DH-only, one could argue he's worth cutting. With the 26th roster spot I guess you kinda have to just keep the "legend" on the roster, but I could see a prolonged IL stint sometime this year or next year just to kinda protect the image as he rides off into the sunset.


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 05, 2020, 9:56 AM Post
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bill hAll Star said:
Pujols is very likely 42 right now.

As a DH-only, one could argue he's worth cutting. With the 26th roster spot I guess you kinda have to just keep the "legend" on the roster, but I could see a prolonged IL stint sometime this year or next year just to kinda protect the image as he rides off into the sunset.

Looking back, I really wish the Cardinals had made the mistake of signing him to that contract instead of the Angels. I'm not certain my body could contain that much schadenfreude.


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 05, 2020, 10:42 AM Post
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3and2Fastball said:
6-9 years from now, if MLB continues its financial success, $25 million will likely get you a utility player and an average set up man. The top free agents will be signing for $40-$50 million a year. In other words, there is every reason to believe that, based on inflation, the contract that Yelich signed will be team friendly throughout the length of the deal.


"Baseball inflation" will likely be contained to the rise in the luxury tax threshold. With that threshold essentially becoming a "soft" salary cap, any additional dollars that go to the top-end guys just means there will be less money to go to all of the other players.

I don't know the formula for how the cap is set, but it looks like the average increase since inception in 2003 is around 4%, but in recent years has been roughly 1% annual increases. I'd guess the formula has something to do with average MLB payroll, and as the penalties have stiffened, less teams have went over the cap, effectively decreasing the rate of increase.

I'd guess that this will be a major talking point in the next CBA discussions, but as it stands the aggregate increase in MLB payrolls looks to be slowing dramatically. This has helped teams like the Brewers, while the Red Sox just traded their best player and the Cubs are at a standstill.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

~Bill Walsh


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 05, 2020, 4:31 PM Post
Posts: 5592
Location: New Berlin, WI
https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status ... 6160367616

This guy says deal is official.


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 05, 2020, 5:37 PM Post
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https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1235710152193515520

9 years, $215m if my math is correct. Could be 10 years $228m if 2029 option is agreed to.

EDIT:

https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1235711461688832001

9 years, $217m, so 10 years $230m.

Thank you for taking the discount Christian!


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 05, 2020, 5:48 PM Post
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He has a $2 million trade kicker

https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/12 ... 32001?s=20


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