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YELICH EXTENDED - 9 YEARS $215M, Mutual Option in 2029, Full No Trade, $28 million deferred

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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 05, 2020, 9:19 PM Post
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The Pujols deal has never been a good comp, the ages are completely different. The best comps I've seen for recent players are Andrew McCutchen and Paul Goldschmidt. Both had very similar production as Yelich in their 26-28 aged seasons. McCutchen's value tanked largely because he suddenly sucked defensively. I don't know that Yelich is going to follow that same path since defense isn't a huge part of his game right now. Goldschmidt mostly held his value until last year which included a team change which makes things a bit more confusing. It looks like Goldschmidt had a lot of bad luck with BABIP last year compared to his norm but maybe that is just moving to a pitchers park from a hitters park.

I highly doubt this is a good deal for the Brewers from a pure wins to contract value standpoint. The safer play was to let him play out his contract and leave. But every once in a while one of these guys stays amazing into his mid 30's, if that happens it is a huge win. We are kind of hoping he is Josh Donaldson who has managed to stay great until 34 outside of that one season. Even if it doesn't happen having that clear face of the franchise that the fanbase can rally behind has a lot of sneaky value that I think really matters. I like the deal but I can't say that it is a sure win for the Brewers.


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 05, 2020, 9:45 PM Post
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I would have preferred 7 years total with an 8th option..... rather than 9 total with a 10th option. Those ultra big money, extra long contracts seem like they never work out well. Glad Yelich is here longer than the next three, at least in theory. No surprise here if he is traded at any point from 2022 to 2026 when we probably go through a rebuild.


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Online  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 05, 2020, 10:01 PM Post
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rickh150 said:
I would have preferred 7 years total with an 8th option..... rather than 9 total with a 10th option. Those ultra big money, extra long contracts seem like they never work out well. Glad Yelich is here longer than the next three, at least in theory. No surprise here if he is traded at any point from 2022 to 2026 when we probably go through a rebuild.


A rebuild in the middle of Keston Hiura’s MVP years?! No way!

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 05, 2020, 10:17 PM Post
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I gotta say it is really nice knowing we will have Yelich & Hiura anchoring our lineup for the foreseeable future


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 06, 2020, 8:42 AM Post
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MVP2110 said:
I gotta say it is really nice knowing we will have Yelich & Hiura anchoring our lineup for the foreseeable future


Yep and I know it might be getting greedy but if Urias can be the real thing our 2-3-4 could be set for 2 more presidential cycles.


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 06, 2020, 9:34 AM Post
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rickh150 said:
I would have preferred 7 years total with an 8th option..... rather than 9 total with a 10th option. Those ultra big money, extra long contracts seem like they never work out well. Glad Yelich is here longer than the next three, at least in theory. No surprise here if he is traded at any point from 2022 to 2026 when we probably go through a rebuild.

probably had to give him that to get the deal done. Yes, probably at the end of the deal his production will not equal his salary, but its the price of doing business. If the brewers didn't give it to him, someone else would have in 2 years. If you want a superstar, you have to do that.


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 06, 2020, 10:17 AM Post
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No opts out and a full no trade clause according to Nightengale


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 06, 2020, 10:19 AM Post
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Location: New Berlin, WI
MVP2110 said:
No opts out and a full no trade clause according to Nightengale


In sickness and in health, until 2029.


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 06, 2020, 10:45 AM Post
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Can someone who is better with numbers and WAR, etc give a quick break down what Yelich will have to produce over the course of the contract to validate it, specifically performance wise?

Also, is there a general agreement about Braun's contract and how he performed in comparison? I'm just curious..


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 06, 2020, 10:47 AM Post
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Interesting Yelich is essentially following the same path Ryan Braun did. Super cheap early extension and then a second extension that is notably under the length/amount he would get in free agency. Much like Braun’s it may not end up glamorous, but should avoid disastrous level that signing such a player in FA would.

Next up I hope a Hiura deal can be made in the next few years.. Such a great player and very humble.


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 06, 2020, 10:59 AM Post
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Location: New Berlin, WI
liveforoctober said:
Can someone who is better with numbers and WAR, etc give a quick break down what Yelich will have to produce over the course of the contract to validate it, specifically performance wise?

Also, is there a general agreement about Braun's contract and how he performed in comparison? I'm just curious..


Get out your Joseph Bat-light


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 06, 2020, 11:10 AM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
Yea I'd be all over using those White Sox and Braves contracts to their young stars super early in the process as models for Keston. He's a lock to hit, earlier you can lock him up and get a few years of FA bought out the cheaper it'll be.


Last edited by tmwiese55 on March 06, 2020, 11:40 AM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 06, 2020, 11:20 AM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
liveforoctober said:
Can someone who is better with numbers and WAR, etc give a quick break down what Yelich will have to produce over the course of the contract to validate it, specifically performance wise?

Also, is there a general agreement about Braun's contract and how he performed in comparison? I'm just curious..


Get out your Joseph Bat-light


I was thinking more along the lines of "you're my only hope, Obi Joseph"


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 06, 2020, 11:21 AM Post
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tmwiese55 said:
Yea I'd be all over using those White Sox and Braves contracts to their young stars super early in the process as models for Keston. He's a lock to hit, early you can lock him up and get a few years of FA bought out the cheaper it'll be.


After this offseason, go for eight years, $100 million. A $12.5 million AAV, keeps him in Milwaukee with Yelich.


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 06, 2020, 11:27 AM Post
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Location: N. Fort Myers, FL
The presser is about to be aired on MLB Network.


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 9 YEARS $215M, Mutual Option in 2029, Full No Trade
Posted: March 06, 2020, 12:20 PM Post
Posts: 1172
Location: Washburn, WI
Sounds like Yelich went up to Mark to express his interest in remaining with the Brewers and that the first time he and the Brewers sat down to discuss a long term deal was back on Halloween.

Glad that the deal got done and that Christian will be with Milwaukee for the rest of his career!


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Online  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 9 YEARS $215M, Mutual Option in 2029, Full No Trade
Posted: March 06, 2020, 12:21 PM Post
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An extremely impressive press conference all the way around. Congrats to Yelich, Stearns & Mark for getting it done. They were working on the contract negotiations since Halloween!

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 7 YEARS $200M+
Posted: March 06, 2020, 1:19 PM Post
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liveforoctober said:
Can someone who is better with numbers and WAR, etc give a quick break down what Yelich will have to produce over the course of the contract to validate it, specifically performance wise?

Also, is there a general agreement about Braun's contract and how he performed in comparison? I'm just curious..


So, let's do some quick math.... from 2022 until 2028 he'll make 26M per season. After age 30, the rule of thumb is players lose 0.5 war per season, we'll say Yelich is a 6 WAR player (his average over the past 3 seasons).

So, 3 seasons of 6 war (through 2022) then (2023) 5.5, 5, 4.5, 4, 3.5 and 3 WAR in 2028.

The total.... 43.5 WAR.

Using Fangraphs estimates: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-recent- ... t-pricing/

So, at 11M per WAR, Yelich will be worth about 478M of value.

"I wasted so much time in my life hating Juventus or A.C. Milan that I should have spent hating the Cardinals." ~kalle8

Twitter: @MKEHiker
Website: http://www.mkehiker.com


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Online  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 9 YEARS $215M, Mutual Option in 2029, Full No Trade, $28 million deferred
Posted: March 06, 2020, 1:55 PM Post
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Holy moly, $11M per WAR? Wasn't there discussion on here earlier this offseason about how the more widely shared belief of about $8M per WAR should be closer to $4M per WAR?


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Offline  Re: YELICH EXTENDED - 9 YEARS $215M, Mutual Option in 2029, Full No Trade, $28 million deferred
Posted: March 06, 2020, 2:04 PM Post
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$11M seems really high to me as well. So if we got Sogard at 1 yr/$4.5 mil ... and he produces 1 WAR this year he is outperforming his contract by $6.5 million? That doesn't seem right?


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