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Brewers Payroll 2020 and beyond

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Offline  Brewers Payroll 2020 and beyond
#1

Posted: March 03, 2020, 4:31 PM Post
Posts: 5668
Location: New Berlin, WI
I don't want to muck up the other thread to much with financial stuff. I looked at Brewers contracts 2022 and beyond, the only players we have signed to guaranteed deals in 2022 and beyond include Cain($18), Lindblom($3 with incentives), and Peralta($2.5). Cain and Lindblom both fall off the books after 2022. We obviously have considerable players in arbitration and will have to add some players via FA as our farm is not good right now...but overall we have an excellent base to build from with Yelich staying put for a long time.


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Offline  Re: Brewers Payroll 2020 and beyond
#2

Posted: March 03, 2020, 5:00 PM Post
Posts: 1976
Thank you for making this because I didn't really want to put this in the Yelich thread. It is easy to look at the off season afterwards and scrutinize. Not really my goal with this but just something to consider. Instead of signing Sogard, Gyroko, and Smoak (approximately 13 million total), we sign Rendon to the contract he agreed to with LA. We then trade for the very available Dom Smith from the Mets to play first base. The way the Rendon contract was setup (29 mill for 2020 and 27.5 mill for 2021), he makes less money in the first two years which would work well with our payroll obligations.

The lineup would be:

Cain- CF
Yelich- LF
Rendon- 3B
Hiura- 2B
Narvaez/Pina- C
Garcia/Braun- RF
Smith/Braun- 1B
Urias/Holt- SS
P

Payroll would go up approximately 15 million for this season. Obviously this would make it unlikely we extend Yelich but man that lineup is awesome. If you are really concerned for payroll in 2020, you could also have not signed Garcia.


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Offline  Re: Brewers Payroll 2020 and beyond
#3

Posted: March 03, 2020, 6:44 PM Post
Posts: 4033
You cannot assume that Rendon would have signed with the Brewers for the same money he signed for with the Angels

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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Offline  Re: Brewers Payroll 2020 and beyond
#4

Posted: March 03, 2020, 7:18 PM Post
Posts: 1976
While that is true, if he signed the same deal with Milwaukee he would receive more money as Wisconsin's taxes are lower than Californias. I guess the main point I was trying to make was that if we can "afford" a big contract like that, I would have preferred it to be handled differently.


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Offline  Re: Brewers Payroll 2020 and beyond
#5

Posted: March 03, 2020, 7:46 PM Post
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wallus said:
While that is true, if he signed the same deal with Milwaukee he would receive more money as Wisconsin's taxes are lower than Californias. I guess the main point I was trying to make was that if we can "afford" a big contract like that, I would have preferred it to be handled differently.


Not entirely true. Athletes are taxed based on the state/s they play in during a given pay period. While half of Rendon's games will be played in tax jail California, the other half are elsewhere.


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Offline  Re: Brewers Payroll 2020 and beyond
#6

Posted: March 03, 2020, 7:52 PM Post
Posts: 1976
TigerUppercut said:
wallus said:
While that is true, if he signed the same deal with Milwaukee he would receive more money as Wisconsin's taxes are lower than Californias. I guess the main point I was trying to make was that if we can "afford" a big contract like that, I would have preferred it to be handled differently.


Not entirely true. Athletes are taxed based on the state/s they play in during a given pay period. While half of Rendon's games will be played in tax jail California, the other half are elsewhere.


Still would be less overall, no?


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Offline  Re: Brewers Payroll 2020 and beyond
#7

Posted: March 03, 2020, 7:58 PM Post
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Imagine having signed Rendon, and let the Yelich contract play out. Potentially, we would have had them both for 3 years...

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: Brewers Payroll 2020 and beyond
#8

Posted: March 03, 2020, 7:59 PM Post
Posts: 1976
turborickey said:
Imagine having signed Rendon, and let the Yelich contract play out. Potentially, we would have had them both for 3 years...


Yep, the point of my post!


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Offline  Re: Brewers Payroll 2020 and beyond
#9

Posted: March 03, 2020, 11:06 PM Post
Posts: 5668
Location: New Berlin, WI
One thing you all are missing, yelich gets no new money until 2022...when we have far fewer significant payroll commitments. We don't really have the ability to add 28 million for rendon for 2020


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Offline  Re: Brewers Payroll 2020 and beyond
#10

Posted: March 04, 2020, 8:37 AM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
One thing you all are missing, yelich gets no new money until 2022...when we have far fewer significant payroll commitments. We don't really have the ability to add 28 million for rendon for 2020

I thought of this as well, and yet there is the possibility that Yelich could receive a signing bonus as part of the deal. If I were MA and Stearns, with this season's payroll being on the lower side, I'd be tempted to get some of that $215M salary added to this season. Trout got a $20M bonus so it wouldn't be strange if Yelich got $10M or more as a bonus.

They could even split the bonus over the next two seasons. Between a $10M bonus and deferred money, say maybe $20M deferred, that could make the 7 added years come in under $23M per season AAV while only adding $5M to his contract each of the next two seasons, so $12.5M + $5M in 2020 and $14M + $5M in 2021.


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Offline  Re: Brewers Payroll 2020 and beyond
#11

Posted: March 04, 2020, 9:10 AM Post
Posts: 89
40-Man Roster Control (via minimum/arb/options):

2027 - Yelich

2026 - Peralta

2025 - Hiura, Wahl, Ray, Supak, Taylor, Ray, Perdomo

2024 - Woodruff, Houser, Urias, Lauer, Burnes, Nottingham, Frietas

2023 - Hader

2022 - Cain, Narvaez, Arcia, Gamel, Suter, Lindblom, Healy

2021 - Garcia, Knebel, Pina, Braun, Phelps, Holt, Smoak, Sogard, Gyorko

Only player on our roster that we don't have at least partial control of after this year is Anderson.


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Offline  Re: Brewers Payroll 2020 and beyond
#12

Posted: March 04, 2020, 9:39 AM Post
Posts: 1976
KeithStone53151 said:
We don't really have the ability to add 28 million for rendon for 2020


Only if we didn't plan for it at the start of the off season. As I mentioned earlier in this thread, if you didn't sign Sogard, Smoak, and Gyorko that saves about 13 million. Trade for Dom Smith or cheap equivalent for 1st base. If payroll is still too high, you don't sign Garcia. Doing all of that saves about 20 million which would keep payroll well below last year. That amount of salary would be affordable within the payroll. It would give us a three year window to get a World Series done. If it doesn't work out in 2 years, you trade Yelich, Hader (which we are probably going to do anyway) and rebuild.


Last edited by wallus on March 04, 2020, 10:12 AM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Brewers Payroll 2020 and beyond
#13

Posted: March 04, 2020, 10:02 AM Post
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Posts: 15281
Location: Milwaukee, WI
I'll take my shot with Sogard/Smoak/Gyorko and the rest of the bad boys over throwing even more money at Rendon. What a hamstringing move that really could've turned out to being for the Brewers if they went down that path.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: Brewers Payroll 2020 and beyond
#14

Posted: March 04, 2020, 10:26 AM Post
Posts: 5668
Location: New Berlin, WI
wallus said:
KeithStone53151 said:
We don't really have the ability to add 28 million for rendon for 2020


Only if we didn't plan for it at the start of the off season. As I mentioned earlier in this thread, if you didn't sign Sogard, Smoak, and Gyorko that saves about 13 million. Trade for Dom Smith or cheap equivalent for 1st base. If payroll is still too high, you don't sign Garcia. Doing all of that saves about 20 million which would keep payroll well below last year. That amount of salary would be affordable within the payroll. It would give us a three year window to get a World Series done. If it doesn't work out in 2 years, you trade Yelich, Hader (which we are probably going to do anyway) and rebuild.


That strategy would make us dangerously thin at basically every position. You'd be looking at likely a ton of starts from Ronny Rodriguez and Ben Gamel when someone inevitably got hurt. That right there would be Doug Melvin style team building. Those teams under his tenure had so many starts from reeeeeeeeally bad players despite having basically an all star at every position when healthy. As currently positioned, we can sustain injuries to multiple players at every position except catcher and not really miss a beat(unless of course one of those is yelich).

All of the above doesn't even touch on whether he even wanted to come here, whether he would have taken the same $, whether the Angels would have bid more to make sure they got him. Also doesn't touch on his significant injury history, or the fact that he's significantly less valuable than Yelich yet paid on average $6 million more per year compared to Yelich's new money. Also, for all we know the Brewers analytics simply didn't deem Rendon to be all that valuable. Maybe they view him as very likely to regress quickly, especially considering his significant injury history.

There's so much more to the whole GM thing than sticking a square peg in a square hole.


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Offline  Re: Brewers Payroll 2020 and beyond
#15

Posted: March 04, 2020, 10:51 AM Post
Posts: 1976
KeithStone53151 said:

There's so much more to the whole GM thing than sticking a square peg in a square hole.


That's pretty condescending but whatever. You wouldn't have a lot of starts from Ronny Rodriguez because you have Holt and Arcia. Gamel isn't a terrible 5th outfielder by any means. I realize people are pretty over the moon about the Yelich extension and I just happen to have a different view on team building.

Yes, you are right there is no guarantee Rendon wanted to come here but we still spent 20 million on Sogard, Smoak, Gyorko and Garcia for 2020 that could have gone towards an elite player. We will see if DS strategy will work this season, I hope it does.


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Offline  Re: Brewers Payroll 2020 and beyond
#16

Posted: March 04, 2020, 11:59 AM Post
Posts: 862
wallus said:
KeithStone53151 said:

There's so much more to the whole GM thing than sticking a square peg in a square hole.


That's pretty condescending but whatever. You wouldn't have a lot of starts from Ronny Rodriguez because you have Holt and Arcia. Gamel isn't a terrible 5th outfielder by any means. I realize people are pretty over the moon about the Yelich extension and I just happen to have a different view on team building.

Yes, you are right there is no guarantee Rendon wanted to come here but we still spent 20 million on Sogard, Smoak, Gyorko and Garcia for 2020 that could have gone towards an elite player. We will see if DS strategy will work this season, I hope it does.


If there is no Garcia then Gamel becomes a starter when Braun is out, or if any OF gets injured.
w/o Smoak then Braun plays 1B and Gamel would be the best option as an OF. They certainly wouldn't have signed Holt if they had Rendon's contract. Rodriguez, Mathais, etc.. would be playing if anyone got hurt which is bound to happen. Small market teams can ill afford two elite players' contracts unless one is a pitcher who will dominate.


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Offline  Re: Brewers Payroll 2020 and beyond
#17

Posted: March 04, 2020, 12:06 PM Post
Posts: 1976
wntrtxn21 said:

If there is no Garcia then Gamel becomes a starter when Braun is out, or if any OF gets injured.
w/o Smoak then Braun plays 1B and Gamel would be the best option as an OF. They certainly wouldn't have signed Holt if they had Rendon's contract. Rodriguez, Mathais, etc.. would be playing if anyone got hurt which is bound to happen. Small market teams can ill afford two elite players' contracts unless one is a pitcher who will dominate.


Holt would be your 4th outfielder. (.771 OPS in 2019) Like I had mentioned, Dom Smith from the Mets would have been picked up (was available this off season) and he is cheap for a while.

Why wouldn't they have signed Holt if they signed Rendon? His contract is small and his versatility is excellent. He can play everywhere but pitcher and catcher.

Right now we have two elite players signed for under market deals which is a nice advantage (Hader and Yelich). Moving forward, we will be losing that advantage which will make things more difficult.


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Offline  Re: Brewers Payroll 2020 and beyond
#18

Posted: March 04, 2020, 4:06 PM Post
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Vollbc74 said:
40-Man Roster Control (via minimum/arb/options):

2027 - Yelich

2026 - Peralta

2025 - Hiura, Wahl, Ray, Supak, Taylor, Ray, Perdomo

2024 - Woodruff, Houser, Urias, Lauer, Burnes, Nottingham, Frietas

2023 - Hader

2022 - Cain, Narvaez, Arcia, Gamel, Suter, Lindblom, Healy

2021 - Garcia, Knebel, Pina, Braun, Phelps, Holt, Smoak, Sogard, Gyorko

Only player on our roster that we don't have at least partial control of after this year is Anderson.


With the Peralta extension, I'd guess that Stearns is also approaching some others, notably Hiura and Urias, and possibly guys like Burnes and Narvaez. As long as he can maintain a solid core, he can build around that core. Extending good players while they're young helps keep your core intact.

Stearns showed this off-season that you can turn over a good portion of your roster in one off-season. Some of these replacements (Narvaez, Urias, Lauer) are longer-term pieces who could be "core" guys going forward, while others are 1- or 2-year commitments to fill in holes until longer-term pieces can be found.

If Urias can get on base like he did in the minors, he, Yelich, and Hiura should be a strong top of the order for a long time. My one concern is that we don't have a strong farm. We need to be able to keep quite a few pre-arby guys on the roster to keep payroll down so we can afford some expensive contracts. Even if these are only bullpen arms and bench guys, paying some of your 26 guys $550k really brings the average price-per-player down.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

~Bill Walsh


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Offline  Re: Brewers Payroll 2020 and beyond
#19

Posted: March 04, 2020, 6:45 PM Post
Posts: 2281
Vollbc74 said:
40-Man Roster Control (via minimum/arb/options):

2027 - Yelich

2026 - Peralta

2025 - Hiura, Wahl, Ray, Supak, Taylor, Ray, Perdomo

2024 - Woodruff, Houser, Urias, Lauer, Burnes, Nottingham, Frietas

2023 - Hader

2022 - Cain, Narvaez, Arcia, Gamel, Suter, Lindblom, Healy

2021 - Garcia, Knebel, Pina, Braun, Phelps, Holt, Smoak, Sogard, Gyorko




Yelich has the mutual option presumably in 2029, not 2027.


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Offline  Re: Brewers Payroll 2020 and beyond
#20

Posted: March 05, 2020, 6:48 PM Post
Posts: 8352
TigerUppercut said:
wallus said:
While that is true, if he signed the same deal with Milwaukee he would receive more money as Wisconsin's taxes are lower than Californias. I guess the main point I was trying to make was that if we can "afford" a big contract like that, I would have preferred it to be handled differently.


Not entirely true. Athletes are taxed based on the state/s they play in during a given pay period. While half of Rendon's games will be played in tax jail California, the other half are elsewhere.



Not true. He will also pay taxes on games in LA 2 (2) and Oakland (9). So he'll actually be at 92 games. Of course, that will partly be offset by playing games in Tampa, Houston, and Dallas.


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